NLDS Roster Takes Shape
by PhillyFriar on Oct 6, 2009 4:35 PM EDT
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Official word isn't out yet, but Todd Zolecki and David Murphy, among others, have the scoop.
Kyle Kendrick, Miguel Cairo, and Antonio Bastardo are a couple of the surprise inclusions. Surprise omissions include Tyler Walker, Clay Condrey, and Eric Bruntlett.
With that bit of info, it's looking like the roster shapes up like this:
Pitchers
Cliff Lee
Cole Hamels
Joe Blanton
J.A. Happ
Brad Lidge
Ryan Madson
Brett Myers
Scott Eyre
Chad Durbin
Antonio Bastardo
Kyle Kendrick
Pedro Martinez
Hitters
Carlos Ruiz
Ryan Howard
Chase Utley
Jimmy Rollins
Pedro Feliz
Raul Ibanez
Shane Victorino
Jayson Werth
Paul Bako
Miguel Cairo
Greg Dobbs
Matt Stairs
Ben Francisco
My gut reaction? I applaud the organization for placing faith in Bastardo, since a second lefty will almost surely be necessary against the lefty-heavy lineup the Rockies have. I'm also pleasantly surprised by the exclusion of Bruntlett -- his wet noodle bat (171/.224/.238) would have been a liability off the bench, a fact that no amount of value as a pinch runner or utilityman could camouflage. I'm lukewarm on the inclusion of Kendrick in place of Walker -- Walker misses more bats and isn't quite as susceptible to left-handed hitters -- and I generally think keeping 12 pitchers on the postseason roster is a waste, but all things considered, I think the Phils have done a nice job here.
What do you guys think?
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I should add: while a 5-man bench is certainly less desirable than a 6-man bench, I feel pretty confident that a 6-man bench would have meant the exclusion of Bastardo in favor of Bruntlett, which would have been a very bad thing.
If I could make one change (aside from the Kendrick-for-Walker idea I mentioned above), it would be swapping out Chad Durbin in favor of Clay Condrey or Andy Tracy. I’m with dajafi: I just don’t trust Durbin, and his walk rate this year (6.07 per 9 innings) portends bad things. If you really need a 12th pitcher, Condrey at least throws strikes and keeps the ball on the ground, but I’d prefer the 6th hitter in Tracy, who did a nice job (5-for-12) for the Phils down the stretch.
Tracy
I’m with you — include Tracy over Condrey. I agree wholeheartedly with BP that a 12th pitcher is nonsense in the playoffs, especially a 5 game series. I mean, that’s just absurd.
by David S. Cohen on Oct 6, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure, those are fair points, but Amaro et al stil get an A-minus for choosing someone – ANYONE, even Durbin/Bastardo – over Bruntlett.
The reality of not seeing Beardo in a crucial postseason situation pleases me to no end.
I hear you. While I’m certainly disappointed about the inclusion of a 12th pitcher instead of a 6th bench player, I’ll agree that this roster is way closer to my ideal one than I ever expected.
Finally, there are those who will say that we’ll miss Bruntlett as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. But even in those arenas, Bruntlett’s talents are vastly overstated. He’s not a base stealer (just 2 this year, only 31 in his entire career), and as a guy who’s in there to go 1st to 3rd or to score from 2nd on a single, he’s easily replaceable; his speed score this year is 4.5, which is bested by (among others) Cairo (4.9), Howard (4.8), Ibanez (4.8), and nearly equaled by Hamels (4.3). As for defense, Cairo can handle all the infield positions nearly as well, and Francisco’s a superior outfielder.
You're crazy
The last time Tracy had more than 20 ABs in a season was 2001… with the EXPOS… and he batted .109! I for one don’t think that 12 ABs in, let’s face it, fairly meaningless games down the stretch qualifies him for a roster spot. I’m SHOCKED that Walker and/or Condrey were left off… i lieu of Durbin/Kendrick. And I’d probably rather have Taschner than Bastardo. So I don’t think its a slam dunk roster…
by LondonPhillie on Oct 6, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
OK maybe I went a bit far with Taschner over Bastardo….
by LondonPhillie on Oct 6, 2009 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re right in pointing out that I shouldn’t be basing my Tracy-for-the-NLDS-roster advocacy on his 12 AB sample size this year — with the obvious flip side of that being that a 20 AB sample size back in 2001 is every bit as useless as a predictor.
More to the point, although he’s clearly a career Quad-A type guy, Tracy’s at least shown patience and power throughout that long minor league career: .267/.362/.494 with 12.8% BB and a .227 ISO. That makes him a better option than any of the alternatives (Bruntlett, Mayberry, Hoover) for that 6th bench spot, and as I said above and will continue to say: carrying 12 pitchers for a divisional series is overkill.
I know there’s a lot of anti-Bruntlett sentiment out there that is pleased that he’s off the roster, but I just don’t see the need for 12 pitchers at this point, so why not give yourself a little more flexibility in case you need an extra pinch hitter or, god forbid, an infield position player goes down and you’ve already used Cairo. That’s where Bruntlett seemed a better choice to me than the 12th pitcher.
by phillyinportland on Oct 7, 2009 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Bruntlett’s such a hideous batter, though, that bringing him in is conceding an out. We have three pitchers that have higher batting averages than the Beard (Lee, Kendrick, and Myers). Hamels, Park, and Durbin are all within .030 of Bruntlett’s batting average, and Park has a better OBP, SLG, and OPS than Bruntlett. I know most of the pitchers suffer from Small Sample Size Syndrome, but Bruntlett’s one of two Phillies position players batting under .200 (the other is Stairs at .194), and he has no power (11 singles, 7 doubles, no triples, no homers). If you can’t hit for contact, you can’t hit for power, and you’re really a rather mediocre fielder, why should you be on a playoff roster?
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
Very happy, mostly because Bruntlett is not on the roster.
Bastardo and Kendrick are surprises, but both make a lot of sense to have on there. Kendrick has pitched well recently, and I honestly dont mind him coming in for important 7th inning work. Bastardo is a bit unproven at this point, but he also showed some skillz earlier in the year. Tracy for Bastardo would be fine with me also, but with the way the bull pen has gone this year, I think it makes sense to have 12 guys in the bull pen.
More good than bad. Cairo over Bruntlett is the real good news, and I like taking the chance with Bastardo over some of the middling righties left home. Unfortunately, I’d take any of those guys over Durbin… and the 9 relievers is crazy, even if it’s explained by the uncertainty around Eyre, Myers and Bastardo. I would have preferred to keep Tracy or Mayberry over the last reliever, whom I guess is Kendrick if you consider Durbin “the hot hand.”
by dajafi on Oct 6, 2009 7:01 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
if you look at that picture of Charlie just right, he looks like Michael McDonald (old).
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Andy Tracy
If I am not mistaken, Tracy isn’t eligible for the post season roster. He was added to the 40 man roster after September 1. That makes him ineligible. He was in the organization at that time but bit on the 40 man. But……..did the purchase of John Ennis contract and subsequent placement on the 60 day DL make Tracy eligible?
by Pedro45 on Oct 6, 2009 8:41 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
The Phils have about 4 DL slots they can use for anybody on the 40 man roster – and that includes Tracy. Frankly, I’d rather see Condrey out there than Lidge. At least with Condrey, you know what you are going to get when you wave him into the game. And certainty is valuable in a short series. And that brings me to my main beef:
TWELVE pitchers? For a 5 game series? Wow. That really says it all… Two definite starters – and TEN relievers?? Better to have left Lidge off.
I can guarantee that in at least one of these games, we’re gonna wish we had another bat on the bench, or a base-stealer, or a glove to use in a double-switch.
Charlie has really tied his own hands here. God help us.
Was Mayberry eligible for the post-season roster?
I’ve mentioned above why I didn’t like the idea of Bruntlett being on the roster, but I didn’t notice Mayberry was off until I went back and re-checked. He had more total bases and RBIs in 57 at-bats than Beard did in 105.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
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