World Series Simulation, Game #4

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Yankees and Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Saturday at 9:30PM)


Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
C.Sabathia vs J.Blanton NYA 62.26%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... The simulator thinks that Joe Blanton is mismatched against CC Sabathia.  And now that the Vegas lines are up, so does Vegas and AccuScore for that matter.  Vegas and the Simulator are in almost perfect agreement as to the likelihood of a Yankees victory.  38% win probability is not a huge underdog, so a Phillie victory is quite possible, but either Joe Blanton is going to have to be on top of his game, and or CC Sabathia is going to have to be hittable like he was to Chase Utley in Game #1.  Most likely scores 7 thru 14 are the blackhole that the Phillies need to avoid.  :)


Top 50 Most Likely Scores

1 PHI 4-3
2 PHI 3-2
3 NYA 3-2
4 NYA 4-3
5 PHI 2-1
6 PHI 5-4
7 NYA 4-2
8 NYA 3-1
9 NYA 2-1
10 NYA 5-4
11 NYA 5-3
12 NYA 4-1
13 NYA 5-2
14 NYA 5-1
15 PHI 4-2
16 PHI 6-5
17 NYA 6-2
18 NYA 6-4
19 NYA 6-3
20 PHI 5-3
21 NYA 4-0
22 NYA 6-5
23 PHI 3-1
24 NYA 3-0
25 NYA 6-1
26 NYA 7-2
27 NYA 5-0
28 PHI 5-2
29 NYA 2-0
30 NYA 7-4
31 NYA 7-3
32 NYA 7-1
33 PHI 6-4
34 PHI 1-0
35 NYA 6-0
36 NYA 1-0
37 PHI 7-6
38 NYA 7-5
39 PHI 4-1
40 NYA 8-1
41 NYA 8-2
42 NYA 8-3
43 PHI 6-3
44 NYA 7-0
45 NYA 8-4
46 NYA 7-6
47 PHI 2-0
48 PHI 6-2
49 NYA 9-2
50 PHI 7-5


Game Pitching Results

C.Sabathia 7.1 6.845 2.008 0.694 1.132 3.390
J.Blanton 6.6 5.589 2.117 1.236 1.332 4.915


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
  Name wOBA Name wOBA
1 D.Jeter .3298 J.Rollins .3115
2 J.Damon .3429 S.Victorino .3057
3 M.Teixeira .3952 C.Utley .3207
4 A.Rodriguez .3840 R.Howard .3057
5 J.Posada .3655 J.Werth .3307
6 R.Cano .3247 R.Ibanez .3045
7 N.Swisher .3545 P.Feliz .2884
8 M.Cabrera .3051 C.Ruiz .2863
9 C.Sabathia .1340 J.Blanton .1352

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