The Good Phight: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Around SBN: Vanderbilt 90, Tennessee 71: What Happened in Nashville

World Series Simulation, Game #4

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Yankees and Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Saturday at 9:30PM)

 

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
NYA
PHI
C.Sabathia vs J.Blanton NYA 62.26%
62.51%
65%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... The simulator thinks that Joe Blanton is mismatched against CC Sabathia.  And now that the Vegas lines are up, so does Vegas and AccuScore for that matter.  Vegas and the Simulator are in almost perfect agreement as to the likelihood of a Yankees victory.  38% win probability is not a huge underdog, so a Phillie victory is quite possible, but either Joe Blanton is going to have to be on top of his game, and or CC Sabathia is going to have to be hittable like he was to Chase Utley in Game #1.  Most likely scores 7 thru 14 are the blackhole that the Phillies need to avoid.  :)

 

Top 50 Most Likely Scores

1 PHI 4-3
2 PHI 3-2
3 NYA 3-2
4 NYA 4-3
5 PHI 2-1
6 PHI 5-4
7 NYA 4-2
8 NYA 3-1
9 NYA 2-1
10 NYA 5-4
11 NYA 5-3
12 NYA 4-1
13 NYA 5-2
14 NYA 5-1
15 PHI 4-2
16 PHI 6-5
17 NYA 6-2
18 NYA 6-4
19 NYA 6-3
20 PHI 5-3
21 NYA 4-0
22 NYA 6-5
23 PHI 3-1
24 NYA 3-0
25 NYA 6-1
26 NYA 7-2
27 NYA 5-0
28 PHI 5-2
29 NYA 2-0
30 NYA 7-4
31 NYA 7-3
32 NYA 7-1
33 PHI 6-4
34 PHI 1-0
35 NYA 6-0
36 NYA 1-0
37 PHI 7-6
38 NYA 7-5
39 PHI 4-1
40 NYA 8-1
41 NYA 8-2
42 NYA 8-3
43 PHI 6-3
44 NYA 7-0
45 NYA 8-4
46 NYA 7-6
47 PHI 2-0
48 PHI 6-2
49 NYA 9-2
50 PHI 7-5

 

Game Pitching Results

Pitcher IP SO BB HR WHIP FIP
C.Sabathia 7.1 6.845 2.008 0.694 1.132 3.390
J.Blanton 6.6 5.589 2.117 1.236 1.332 4.915

 


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
  Name wOBA Name wOBA
1 D.Jeter .3298 J.Rollins .3115
2 J.Damon .3429 S.Victorino .3057
3 M.Teixeira .3952 C.Utley .3207
4 A.Rodriguez .3840 R.Howard .3057
5 J.Posada .3655 J.Werth .3307
6 R.Cano .3247 R.Ibanez .3045
7 N.Swisher .3545 P.Feliz .2884
8 M.Cabrera .3051 C.Ruiz .2863
9 C.Sabathia .1340 J.Blanton .1352






0 recs  |  Comment 2 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Analysis and features focusing on Philadelphia Phillies baseball.
Start posting about the Phillies »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
Ruben Gets It

Recent FanPosts

Deadpool_small
Is the bench really "signifcantly" upgraded?
Small
Should Rollins Bat 7th?
39135485-59af19dbb26654095f910f34176af094_4ae8a81e-scaled_small
Predictions Group
Deadpool_small
Early 2010 Pecota doesn't really like the Phills
Greg_luzinski_small
No dismissal for woman in sex-for-tickets case
Small
Cost Certainty: What Does It Mean?
Djackson-1280x800-players_small
Phils sign Jose Contreras to a 1 year deal
Priest_holmes_small
The Phillies 5th starter will be ...?
Small
John Sickels Top 20 Phillies prospects

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

SPONSORS


Blog Lords

Wholecamels_small WholeCamels

Boys_small jonk

Dsc04697_small David S. Cohen

Meltingface_small dajafi

Colevatar_small Matt Swartz

Phillyfriar_small PhillyFriar