Analyzing the Third Base Candidates: Trade Targets
by PhillyFriar on Nov 16, 2009 8:50 AM EST
Email
PrintOn Friday, we tackled the free agent possibilities at the hot corner. Ruben Amaro is said to be leaning toward signing a free agent, but due diligence dictates a look at potential trade targets as well. I've tried to limit the discussion to third basemen who might actually be available (so you won't see Ryan Zimmerman listed below, sorry).
Without further ado, here's a look at how the trade market for third basemen shapes up: Brandon Wood, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Garrett Atkins, Andy LaRoche, Dan Uggla, and Alex Gordon.
Brandon Wood
Background: 25 years old, 1 year of service time (current club: Los Angeles Angels)
Upside: A former top prospect, Wood has never been given a fair shot in Anaheim. He developed as a shortstop and can probably still be functional there (a la former Phillies prospect Jason Donald), so third base isn't a problem for him defensively. His .286/.354/.541 line across 7 minor league seasons is impressive, perhaps most of all for the .255 ISO and 160 HR that accompany it. He seems like the perfect candidate to unlock his potential under the tutelage of Charlie Manuel and Milt Thompson. Plus, he's cost-controlled for 5 years.
Downside: He's struggled mightily in the majors, though it's been a mere 236 plate appearances and he doesn't turn 25 until next March. Wood has struck out a significant amount throughout his career (33.0% in the majors, 26.1% in the minors), but he made adjustments in Triple-A in 2009, striking out just 20.7% of the time while still posting a .264 ISO and 22 HR in 99 games.
Quick take: If the Angels lose Figgins and fail to sign Beltre, they may just hold onto Wood. Still, their reluctance to give him an extended run of at bats means they could be disenchanted with him at this point, and it makes him a great buy low candidate. It wouldn't be without risks, but dealing for Wood has fantastic potential rewards.
Kevin Kouzmanoff
Background: 28 years old, 3 years of service time (current club: San Diego Padres)
Upside: Kouz is good with the leather, posting a career best 10.7 UZR/150 this year. He's got some pop, too, with a career .174 ISO, and as a right-handed hitter, he'd reap the rewards of moving from Petco Park to CBP.
Downside: His career .308 OBP is a good place to start. He's essentially a younger Pedro Feliz with less contact ability, more power, and the same good glove/aversion to walks profile. Additionally, he'll get a substantial raise this year, as he's arbitration eligible for the first time.
Quick take: Kouzmanoff for free, as a 1- or 2-year stopgap, wouldn't be the absolute worst thing in the world. But the cost in prospects and salary simply can't be justified for a guy who is, at best, a very minor upgrade over Feliz.
Garrett Atkins
Background: 30 years old, 5 years of service time (current club: Colorado Rockies)
Upside: Atkins is listed here because he hasn't accrued enough service time to be eligible for free agency, but he's likely to be non-tendered by the Rockies, so a trade is probably unnecessary. At his best, Atkins was a .301/.364/.482 hitter during his four-year peak from 2005 to 2008. Plus, he's friends with Chase Utley!
Downside: Atkins has been regressing as a hitter for three straight years, culminating in an atrocious .226/.308/.342 line in 2009. It's not just bad luck on balls in play, either -- his line drive ratio was almost 6% lower than his career average, power has almost vanished (.116 ISO) and his contact rate has been steadily slipping as well. He was roughly average with the glove in 2009 (-0.7 UZR/150), but he's been a first baseman waiting to happen throughout his career (career -5.0 UZR/150).
Quick take: If Charlie and Milt want a challenge, Atkins could be their reclamation project of choice. Still, with a poor glove and rapidly slipping offensive peripherals, the upside doesn't appear to be all that great with Atkins. I'm sure he's on Amaro's radar, but the reigning NL champs can do a lot better.
Andy LaRoche
Background: 27 26 years old, 2 years of service time (current club: Pittsburgh Pirates)
Upside: After years of being stuck in the Dodgers organization, LaRoche finally got an extended run of playing time with Pittsburgh in 2009, and responded with a solid if unspectacular .258/.330/.401 campaign. He exhibited excellent control of the strike zone during his minor league career (243 BB, 294 K), and was plus with the glove in 2009 (5.1 UZR/150). With top prospect Pedro Alvarez in line for a call up in 2010, dealing LaRoche would make room at the hot corner in Pittsburgh.
Downside: At 27, LaRoche should be entering his statistical peak, and he's yet to live up to the promise that he showed in the minors. He was even in danger of losing his starting job in 2009 before a hot September. And, as the only worthwhile piece the Pirates received from the Jason Bay/Manny Ramirez deal (unless you're a believer in Craig Hansen suddenly finding his command), Pittsburgh may be reluctant to deal him.
Quick take: LaRoche certainly isn't a top shelf option, but depending on the cost, he's more desirable than the DeRosas, Tejadas, and Atkins of the world.
Dan Uggla
Background: 30 years old, 4 years of service time (current club: Florida Marlins)
Upside: He's a right-handed power threat who has never hit fewer than 27 home runs in 4 major league seasons. Uggla has even developed greater patience as he's grown accustomed to the majors, drawing walks in an impressive 14.0% of his plate appearances last year. And since he's (1) arbitration eligible and (2) a Marlin, you know he's eminently available.
Downside: Uggla hasn't played third base since he was in Double-A back in 2004, and it sounds like he doesn't want that to change. Even if he acquiesces, his .929 career fielding percentage at the hot corner means he'd probably be subpar defensively at best, and Ryan Braun-level bad at worst. He's shown a strange reverse platoon split throughout his career, OPSing 86 points lower against southpaws. Plus, he's due a substantial raise on the $5.35 million he made in 2009.
Quick take: The defensive concerns and the escalating salary outweigh the potential benefits here.
Alex Gordon
Background: 26 years old, 2+ years of service time (current club: Kansas City Royals)
Upside: Okay, so Gordon is the one name on this list who's probably not really on the trading block. There's been speculation as to his availability since the Royals manipulated his service time with a demotion in 2009, and the club did just trade for Josh Fields (although they claim they'll keep Gordon at third and play Fields in left). If available, Gordon's a former top prospect with a career .325/.432/.583 minor league line; he likely only needs regular at bats to improve on his major league .250/.331/.451 line.
Downside: If Gordon really is available, he wouldn't come particularly cheap; an educated guess would have the Phillies parting with at least Michael Taylor to get a deal done. Scouts remain puzzled as to why he's struggled in the majors so far, though it's probably attributable to a hip injury suffered last year. He's eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason, so he's in line for a pay bump. Finally, he's left-handed, which would really, seriously unbalance the Phillies lineup.
Quick take: No harm in making the call -- Dayton Moore isn't exactly the sharpest of GMs, after all -- but it sounds like the Royals are smart enough to hang onto Gordon for the time being.
---
There you have it. Of the above, Atkins seems the most likely to don red pinstripes next year, while Wood and Gordon offer the most upside. I'll go on record now to say that Beltre and Wood are my top two choices, and that Kouzmanoff joins Tejada and Mora on the list of guys I wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole.
30 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I agree with Beltre and Wood being my top two choices, but I disagree with Tejada being a bad option. Cot’s doesn’t look at him as a type A so he wouldn’t cost a first rounder. His OPS is a full 100 points higher than Feliz’s this season. He’s a contact hitter, only striking out 48 times this season. His LD% have been over 20 the past two seasons. Moving him to third would be a risk, and his defense is significantly worse than Pedro’s. But if we sign a utility infielder to come in during the late innings, that can be mitigated.
I understand that over the course of a season he walks about as much as I do, but it’s not like Feliz took a whole bunch of pitches (I couldn’t find pitches per at bat, but I’d imagine it’s similar). He’s also older and steadily regressing. But Figgins would be too expensive, Beltre is coming off injury so there’s risk there, and there’s faults in all the other candidates as well.
I’m not saying it’s a perfect fit, but if we can get Tejada for around 16 mil over 2 years, I would be happy with having him bat 7th in my lineup. That being said, he’s coming off a year he got over 15 mil alone, so 16/2 could be a pipedream.
some things about B. Wood
Brandon Wood has no more options left (means he is going to be on the Angels next year or gonna be put on waivers).
Also, very insightful story by Halos Heaven very own mattwelch (http://www.halosheaven.com/2009/11/1/1110070/why-you-should-think-about-brandon)
Why You Should Think About Brandon Wood Every Time You Watch the Phillies
Do you feel like Brandon Wood has never been given his shot, that Mike Scioscia has kept him down far longer than any good prospect should rot in the minors? Conversely, do you think that the mere fact that Wood is going into his age-25 year without having earned a spot is telling in itself, and/or are you of the mind that unproven players of that age (or even slightly older) are “too old to be a prospect”?
Well, let me introduce you to Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth. You may have heard of them. A combined 9 All-Star selections, 5 seasons (and soon to be more) in the Top 10 of MVP voting; 9 seasons in the Top 25. Ten seasons scoring 100 runs, 12 seasons driving in 100, 10 seasons hitting 30 homers. Some good baserunning & defense for extra spice. Back-to-back World Series appearances.
Star-divide
Where were they, development wise, compared to Richard Wood?
Plate appearances through age-22 season:
83 Shane Victorino
33 Wood
0 Ryan Howard
0 Chase Utley
0 Raul Ibanez
0 Jayson Werth
Through age 23:
190 Wood
83 Victorino
53 Werth
0 Howard
0 Utley
0 Ibanez
Through age 24:
236 Wood
152 Utley
104 Werth
102 Victornio
42 Howard
6 Ibanez
In fact, the Phillies whole roster is filled with guys who would have loved to be where Wood is right now: all but assured of a starting spot at age 25, after having already spent parts of three seasons in the Show. Carlos Ruiz didn’t see a Major League pitch until age 27. Pedro Feliz started his decade-long career at age 25. Matt Stairs had one home run through his age-27 year; he has 259 now.
I can say with confidence that Brandon Wood will not be as good as Chase Utley. But to say that his 236 plate appearances so far amount to either criminal development negligence or proof positive that he won’t excell is, I think, inaccurate.
however, i consider there to be a slight flaw. B.Wood has not had consistent plate appearances, thus if he was an everyday player, his numbers might very well be a lot better:
at least howard (and assuming utley, and rollins) played many games at once. I don’t know about the rest, except for ruiz, he was usually platooned with another catcher. jim thome was traded from the phillies to the chi sox so howard could start regularly. i don’t know how many games wood has played consecutively and not "every so often". I want to see what wood is like if he plays every day, something Kendry Morales benefited from greatly this year.
It’s an interesting piece, and I think the takeaway that “It’s far too early to give up on Brandon Wood at Age 25” is a good one.
But comparing him to Utley, Howard, Werth, and Victorino is apples to oranges. Wood was a 1st round pick out of high school and posted a .276/.355/.552 line as a 21-year old in Double-A, then a .278/.338/.497 line as a 22-year old in Triple-A. He was essentially ready for the majors at that point, but he’s instead spent the past two years repeating Triple-A, with a couple cups of coffee thrown in for good measure. Utley and Howard were drafted out of college and progressed steadily through the minors until they debuted at age 24; Werth dealt with injury problems; and Victorino was a project from the minute he was drafted.
The point being: none of them were major league ready at 22, which Wood was. The Angels have basically let him waste away in Triple-A for two seasons, which didn’t happen with any of the Phillies mentioned.
but
wood wasn’t doing well in the majors, and instead of letting him sit on the bench, the angels wanted to get him regular at bats so he went back to triple a. the angels had way too many outfields and a good third basemen (so you can’t play figgy anywhere – hasn’t played middle infield in years), so what do you do? up until recently, their dh spot was for guys not on the dl but too hurt to play the field (or where extra outfielder went). like i said in the post, i want to see wood play every day, to see if he can play or is just a 4A player (like Byrd was on the Phillies a few years back)
the play every day philosophy
worked for kendry morales on the angels and he is most likely going to get a handful of mvp votes (probably in top 5 or 10)
"I'll go on record now to say that Beltre and Wood are my top two choices"
Took the words outta my mouth. Only problem with Wood is, if hes really a bum, who plays at third?
Like I said before, I WILL NOT watch Bruntlett play 3rd 3-4 times a week. On the flipside though, I always wondered what Dobbs would be capable of if he played everyday.
But honestly, I wouldnt be too upset if we just went back to Pedro.
A lot. Im not saying Feliz is good, but sometimes I think we hate on him around here a lot more than we should.
by philiafan14364 on Nov 16, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
agreed, pedro is an easy target, but in his defense we get a good amount of offense from our 2b, ss, and cf, so we can afford to have a lighter hitting corner outfielder than is the norm.
with that said, swinging and harmlessly popping out in foul territory needs to stop. maybe milt can earn his money tutoring Feliz if he’s back.
Feliz has been awful
Look at his OPS+ numbers compared to every other 3b in MLB. Granted, he is above-average defensively, but the Phillies literally cannot do worse than Feliz offensively, aside from playing Bruntlett every day. The latter is no longer an option, thankfully. Pencil in instead “Omar Vizquel” or “Melvin Mora” perhaps.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Nov 17, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
My own bottom line on Feliz is that you can hide him if you have a capable 3B bench player (2008 Dobbs) but you can’t when you don’t (2009 Dobbs), and I believe he wore out this season. He is defensive-replacement, possibly platoonable (more for GB-throwing lefties and his defense rather than for offense), no more.
by Wet Luzinski on Nov 17, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
I’d love them to give Wood a shot, then have a contingency plan in case he does stumble more than expected. Signing a vet for cheap is the best way to prevent complete disaster. Free agents like Mark Loretta, Jamey Carroll, and Geoff Blum would be inexpensive alternatives if shit hits the fan. But I’d love to try to get Wood.
Dobbs isn’t an everyday third baseman. His swing is way too long with way too many holes to have success against a pitcher 3-4 times a game. He’s a nice pinch hitting option.
by Michael Levin on Nov 16, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
To be fair, Feliz didnt have success against a pitcher 3-4 times a game either.
by philiafan14364 on Nov 16, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
Well, if you’re paying bottom of the barrel for Wood, you can afford to splurge on an uber-sub like Polanco, Hairston, etc. who could play 3rd everyday if Wood doesn’t work out. I agree that sinking all hopes into a guy who may be a bust is a legit concern. That said, if his glove is average, at least, the Phillies O is good enough that one weak link won’t ruin the chain.
the upside
is ridiculous. imagine how many runs the phillies could score if we do get wood and he hits even 15-20 home runs in a 162 game season and bats anything around .280. I know that’s a lot to ask of someone who has been inconsistent in the majors, but having Wood for the next 5 years at low pay could really free up money to resign Lee and our other free agents in 2011!
Atkins, LaRoche
I know this is a pipe dream, but how great would it be to get him on a $1-2 million deal to be the right-handed Dobbs?
Also, LaRoche will play almost all next year at age 26—not a huge difference, but mildly significant in terms of his upside. His 2009 splits are interesting: his batting average dropped 25 points in the second half, but his power improved, making me wonder if he was a victim of bad BABIP luck.
I can’t see the Phillies committing to him as “the guy,” but depending on the cost, I wouldn’t be upset if it worked out that way.
"him"=Atkins
sorry—the first line was going to be the whole post, then I had the thought about LaRoche
Good spot on LaRoche. I’d been listing the ages as of Opening Day 2010, but I just majorly goofed on that one.
LaRoche definitely has upside beyond what he did this year. CHONE thinks he’ll hit .263/.346/.406 next year, but I look at his minor league numbers and think that his ceiling is a bit higher than that. I guess that’s a conservative estimate pulled down by a rough 2008 stint in the majors. Anyway, he wouldn’t be my first choice, but depending upon the cost in prospects, I honestly think I’d prefer him to everyone out there not named Wood or Beltre.
quite the anomaly
How Feliz managed to be the best hitter with RISP slays me cause every game I watched, it seemed as though he was just popping up to third (in foul territory nonetheless). Although it seems like it to you all as well, just how many RBIs do you expect from a guy hitting #7 behind Werth and Ibanez?
by layout ultimate on Nov 16, 2009 6:10 PM EST reply actions
PEdro Feliz – the perfect example of why RISP is silly to look at
by jemagee on Nov 16, 2009 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
Beltre is the only FA I’d be interested in. A couple of the young trade options intrigue me. As much as I love Michael Taylor, I’d consider Taylor for Wood. And I think LaRoche might be a good choice, too, but I wonder if Pittsburgh would really try to rob us blind.
Minor league reviews at philliesphans.com. Also check out http://phillychuck.blogspot.com/ for prospect pics and analysis.
I’d be okay with Taylor for Wood. My concern is the same with LaRoche, though—that the Phils wouldn’t trust the position to an “unproven” player.
Have you heard anything to suggest that the Pirates are going to be over the top with their demands for LaRoche? I guess it depends on whether they’re somewhat eager to deal him, or happy to hold onto him until Alvarez surfaces.
They still haven’t tabbed a young guy a starter right off the bat, though. Werth, Victorino and Ruiz, the last three starters to break into the current lineup, spent an entire season on the bench before they were deemed ready. I know those were different circumstances, but I think the reluctance to trust young talent is still there to some extent.
by PhillyFriar on Nov 17, 2009 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
Chicks love Wood… sophomoric, yes. Funny…. YES!
Did someone already make that joke? Laugh a little, it’s going to be a long off-season.
by Phils 2036 World CH on Nov 17, 2009 2:13 PM EST reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Next Game
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Josh Hamilton on public relapse: ‘It was just wrong. That’s all it comes down to.’
- Photo: The Marlins’ ridiculous-looking home run sculpture is almost complete
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman lures alleged stalker into police dragnet
- Report: Josh Hamilton had a relapse with alcohol
- Happy Birthday Boy! Wes Ferrell, the best-hitting pitcher of all-time, would be 104
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
