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Phillies Breakfast Links, November 18, 2009: Happy Petey, Shane Gets Married, Swap Happ?

Thanks for your patience around here.  This is truly the slowest part of the offseason.

 

PARK, EYRE, PEDRO: STAY OR GO? - Philled In
Scott Lauber breaks it down.

 

Reports: Dodgers, Cubs stalk Martinez
If people are willing to overpay for Pedro Martinez, let them. He's worth more to other teams than the Phillies at this point, probably.

 

Park keeping options for 2010 open
I know we're talking negotiations and whatnot, but I really hope Park doesn't insist he's still a starting pitcher.

 

Phillies no stranger to awards
It's really funny how much less of a crap you give about these awards, as a fan, when your team has been going deep into the postseason.

 

crashburnalley.com " The Case Against J.A. Happ
Trade J.A. Happ now, while is value is (likely) at its peak?  

Star-divide

 

Philadelphia Phillies add Quintin Berry, Yohan Flande, Jesus Sanchez to 40-man roster
Procedural, Rule V stuff?

 

Retired pitcher Terry Mulholland lists 3BD for $2.25M
Another potential TGP clubhouse, this time in Arizona! Snowbird fun!

 

Philadelphia Phillies Star Shane Victorino's Wedding
A couple pics. Chuck Liddell was Best Man. I need to go lie down now.

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Lauber’s article suggests that we may have $15-20 million this year to fill our needs at 3rd base, the bullpen and the bench. There’s alot of moving parts, but he comes up with this based on players under contract, expected raises, and purported comments from David Montgomery. IF true, doesn’t this sort of damper any hopes we make a serious run at Chone?

by Boundforbeach on Nov 18, 2009 9:34 AM EST reply actions  

Also… this from the hot stove. Sources say the Phillies “loom as the favorite” for Mark DeRosa, and that the team wants to spend between $4-6 million at 3rd base this year.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10357594/Latest-buzz-from-the-MLB-offseason

by Boundforbeach on Nov 18, 2009 9:39 AM EST up reply actions  

Ugh.

If Amaro really wants to spend between $4 and $6 million at third base, then he should do one of two things: (1) wait out the market, and sign someone much later whose price tag has fallen; or (2) just trade for a third baseman.

Options under #1 probably include Polanco, Tejada, and then Glaus and Mora on the low end of things. Options under #2 include pretty much everyone from the piece the other day (though I’d of course favor Wood, LaRoche, or a miracle play for Gordon).

by PhillyFriar on Nov 18, 2009 9:45 AM EST up reply actions  

I wouldn’t be opposed to dealing Happ if the right offer were to come along. But there’s also a considerable amount of danger inherent in approaching the market with the attitude that “Player X should be overvalued, so therefore, whatever the best offer I can get for him is must be a good deal.” Doesn’t always work that way.

It’s important to keep in mind that even if you subtract the luck, Happ was still pretty good last year. He is also capable of improving on his fundamentals, as many players at his age and experience level do.

by taco pal on Nov 18, 2009 11:00 AM EST reply actions  

But what’s the right offer? You trade a good starting pitcher and you create another problem. That article seemed to be advocating dealing Happ for Halladay. Would you trade Happ and a good prospect for a one year rental, knowing you can’t possibly extend both Lee and Halladay? I wouldn’t. Would you trade him for an outstanding third baseman? Who would it be? I just don’t see it. My main problem with the article is that it fails to take into account the fact that Happ is making near mininum. That alone is of tremendous value, considering the team’s stated payroll limitations going forward. And, as you point out, there is no reason to believe he is incapable of improving.

by Boundforbeach on Nov 18, 2009 11:47 AM EST up reply actions  

I don’t know. You’re right that there may or may not be one in practice. I was just thinking about it on a theoretical level.

by taco pal on Nov 18, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions  

Happ for LaRoche? Good young starter for good young 3rd baseman.

by Cormican on Nov 18, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Good points. Happ’s K rate was actually a bit lower than projected; it wouldn’t shock me to see him bring it up over 7 per 9. At that point, he can afford the inevitable regression on BABIP.

I’d be thrilled to make a trade for Halladay with Happ as the centerpiece. But I’d be about equally pleased to have a good 4th starter who’s cost-controlled for years to come, and who’s old enough that he’s no longer really the injury risk you usually have to worry about with pitchers early in their careers.

by dajafi on Nov 18, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

If we bring back Park and Eyre, do we even need any other bullpen arms? We’d have:

Guys who have shown during their careers that they are capable of being very effective:
Lidge, Madson, Romero, Park, Eyre

Guys who are reported to have stuff that could enable them to be very effective in the future:
Mathieson, Bastardo

Guys who are pretty cheap and are unlikely to be horrible: Condrey
Guys who are cheap and might be a worthwhile risk at long reliever: Kendrick

That’s nine guys already. I recognize that there are question marks around several of those names, but there will be question marks and big price tags around any FA we bring in as well. With nine candidates, we already have some margin for error. Maybe we should just stand pat.

by taco pal on Nov 18, 2009 11:07 AM EST reply actions  

I do wonder about the wisdom of pursuing bullpen help in the offseason. It seems like everyone recognizes that bullpen efficacy is 10% having the right people and 90% luck in hoping that those people perform, and then in the same breath say that bullpen arms are a priority for the offseason.

I wouldn’t be too unhappy if we don’t sign an FA reliever – especially if it means an upgrade at 3rd.

by Steve J on Nov 18, 2009 11:29 AM EST up reply actions  

Couldn't agree more with this sentiment.

Personally, I don’t understand the value of paying $4 million a year for Fernando Rodney (career FIP 4.15) when you can probably sign Brendan Donnelly (3.44), Russ Springer (4.49), Joaquin Benoit (4.50), or hell, Tyler Walker (4.29) for $1 million, and maybe less. Sign Donnelly instead, and use the $3 million saved to entice Beltre instead of Polanco.

I’m probably biased, though — I just don’t believe in paying top dollar for free agent relievers. I think you should be able to build an effective bullpen by combining guys from your system with buy low free agent castoffs (like Romero, Donnelly, Walker, etc.). That’s my philosophy, at least.

by PhillyFriar on Nov 18, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree that our bullpen isn’t exactly in shambles, we’ve got the core for another run at the WS. But with every bullpen in MLB there is room for improvement. That’s just the nature of the beast.

Scar tissue is stronger than muscle tissue. Realize the strength, move on.

by JCB79 on Nov 18, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

If Lidge comes back to form next year, then we get a significant upgrade without doing anything. So standing pat or adding a just a few pieces may be the way to go. But it’s a gamble. No one wants to re-live this year’s closer situation again next year.

by Boundforbeach on Nov 18, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions  

True. But then, picking up another middle reliever won’t address that situation either. Our middle relief was already pretty decent this year. If it isn’t acceptable to plug middle relievers into the closer role should Lidge fail, then the only way to completely protect ourselves against repeating what happened this year is to actually go out and get a duplicate closer. Do you really want to do that?

by taco pal on Nov 18, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Keeping Happ would be in the clubs best interest, granted that’s putting yet another lefty in the rotation but he’s still got a lot of growing to do. If he evolves into what he can be he’s either going to be a strong 2nd/3rd man in the rotation or a very tempting trade option. Give it another season to see where he’s at then start looking at trade options.

Scar tissue is stronger than muscle tissue. Realize the strength, move on.

by JCB79 on Nov 18, 2009 11:52 AM EST reply actions  

true

He could always do good in 2010, and we have either a really good pitcher or a much better trade option because other teams will know he wasn’t just lucky.

by philsfreak6 on Nov 18, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions  

um

Shane got married in shorts and sandals.

That is all.

by Wet Luzinski on Nov 18, 2009 5:25 PM EST reply actions  

A fairy tale wedding to be sure.

Scar tissue is stronger than muscle tissue. Realize the strength, move on.

by JCB79 on Nov 18, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Shane is either the world’s most likeable douchebag, or the world’s douchiest likeable dude.

by taco pal on Nov 18, 2009 6:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I believe both are applicable depending on geographic location.

Scar tissue is stronger than muscle tissue. Realize the strength, move on.

by JCB79 on Nov 18, 2009 8:19 PM EST up reply actions  

and where you fall on the Mets love>>>hate spectrum. But tis true (tis!): the man has stones I don’t even begin to comprehend.

by Wet Luzinski on Nov 21, 2009 9:46 AM EST up reply actions  

Chan Ho Park

Looks like he’s got a clear-cut choice:
1) Relieving for a contender.
2) Try starting for a lower-level team.

by JWoody on Nov 20, 2009 1:30 PM EST reply actions  

Granted, it’s hard to be objective when it’s your career, but if you’ve experienced success on a contender, finally played in a WS after all those years, it just HAS to be addictive. What’s in it for him to pitch for the Pirates, Royals or Nats other than to shorten your career for no point? (the opposite situation is true for Brett Myers, who needs to reestablish himself in an organization like this to re-brand/market himself for big dough.) The only mitigation factor is that as long as you’re healthy, even if you’re in your mid-30s, you can reasonably pitch in a defined role until 40. But not as a starter, Jamie Moyer notwithstanding.

by Wet Luzinski on Nov 21, 2009 9:50 AM EST up reply actions  

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