Is it Time to Trust the Phillies?

I’m not sold on giving him too much credit yet. Yes, Pedro and Cliff Lee were huge successes. But I think the jury’s still out on Ibanez given his age and length/size of the contract. We’ll see how that plays out next year and the following one. As for Park, we were worried about him starting, and events proved us correct. Amaro has done some things that had good results last year, but he’s still riding the drafting/scouting successes of Mike Arbuckle at this point.

Agreed completely with the sentiment that it’s hard to get too upset when the vast majority of Amaro’s move have come up aces so far.

I’m beginning to think the strength of the front office lies in its scouting. Park and (especially) Ibanez were handed too much money last offseason, but both wound up turning in excellent performances. I fully expect Amaro to overpay for DeRosa to kick off this offseason, but I guess I shouldn’t be surprised if he turns in a solid year next year, including a better-than-expected glove at the hot corner (reminiscent of Ibanez’s much better than expected defense this year).

But even if that’s the case — i.e. that their scouting is a serious strength — then the flip side is that Amaro’s valuation of the free agent market is a serious weakness. I mean, why wait around to sign Polanco for 2 years, $8 million when you can ink DeRosa to a 3 year, $18 million deal in early December?

To be fair, take away the Lee trade and Amaro’s first year was a mixed bag of hits and misses coming out to slightly above average. And it’s far too soon to evaluate the 2009 draft class and international signings—though the late snag of Colvin was neat, Jon Singleton looks like a strong pick and Domingo Santana seems like a pretty exciting prospect. I’m not sure that we aren’t even with or ahead of where we were 12 months ago system-wise, despite trading away four top-10 guys in the Lee deal.

And the Lee trade was amazing. He played Ricciardi and Shapiro—whom I once considered the best GM in MLB—like violins, and wound up getting a true ace and a good fourth OF for a good but very young pitching prospect and three ready-now guys who project as a league-average catcher, a utility/platoon infielder and a back of rotation starter. It’s to the point where I almost worry that other GMs might steer clear.

Points taken on the free agent valuations. But the fact that Ibanez likely will be less important to the team fortunes going forward makes me more okay with the fact that we’ll very likely be overpaying him for the next two years. The deals for Park and Pedro were good to great in terms of money, and the team’s hands aren’t tied going forward.

The worst move he made, other than the sequence of deals involving backup catchers, was the two-year contract to Moyer. i still don’t get that one; it was almost impossible that it would work out, and it hasn’t.

But the point is that, through luck or talent, the bad moves that Amaro (and Gillick—who made many more) has made haven’t been constraining. This is a guy with a plan.

Ibanez absolutely carried the team through the first two months and quickly became a fan (and TGP) favorite.

and yet by the end of the season he mostly returned to career norms except for his HR numbers (and SLG number) which I doubt he can maintain as he inches closer to 40.

It was a bad deal, and it’s going to be bad for two more years abreu would have been cheaper for one year and probably just as productive if not more at the palte and defensively ibanez wasn’t an upgrade over burrell much to me (even if he was allowed to play all 9 innings most games)

and now if we’re lucky we’ll set the market for another second tier free agent this time at 3rd base…hopefully the phils will pay him too much for 3 years too making scott boras laugh all the way to the bank

Abreu’s OPS+ the last three years: 116, 120, 113
Ibanez’s OPS+ the last three years: 131, 123, 121

Abreu’s VORP the last three years: 35.6, 32.6, 23.7
Ibanez’s VORP the last three years: 38.4, 38.5, 29.9

Abreu’s UZR/150 the last three years: -10.7, -25.3, -2.5
Ibanez’s UZR/150 the last three years: +10.7, -10.4, -23.3

They were in the same league in two of those three years.

Abreu gets a little extra credit for playing right instead of left, but not that much.

The Abreu/Ibanez comp never occurred to me. I’m surprised that Raul looks as good comparatively as he does. Thanks for posting the numbers.

Ruben Amaro, the G.M. of the Phillies, was one move short of being named a GENIUS. That was not bringing Roy Halladay to the club. That move would have let MLB KNOW that the Phillies were/are FOR REAL!!

It’s not too late yet, the Phillies can still get this done. I don’t trust Cole Hamels anymore. We were one starter short of possibly winning the World Series. It came down to us having only one starter who could effectively shut down the Yankees!!! How great would that move had been???

Yeah, I know, Draybek is a hot prospect, yes, he is; yet, he is no Roy Halladay, and we don’t know what he will become. Our farm always produces a phenonom of some sort, Draybek for Halladay, would have been a small price to pay, for the privilege of beating the hated Yankees!!!

We are going to need more than Cliff Lee, to repeat as National League Champions. I would keep Feliz, and concentrate everything on bringing us a second quality starter, that way Hamels, could rehab properly. I believe that J.A. Happ is the real thing, and Blanton will improve. We need that second quality starter, and I’m not certain that Hamels can completely turn himself around.

I’m hoping that the bullpen recovers, but for now, from what I see, our infield is O.K. A backup for Ruiz would be nice, though!! Right now, all I see is a need for good pitching, and a second good starter!!!

I appreciate your honesty. I enjoyed the article. I have put my trust in Amaro and the Philly brass. DeRosa, Weathers, Schneider, and McDonald would be okay by me. Beltre might be the choice at third though. JA Happ or Hamels, Mike Taylor, and Flande might get us Roy Halliday. I’d do it!