One Three-Game Winning Streak Away From Winning the World Series!
by David S. Cohen on Nov 2, 2009 11:25 AM EST
71 comments
The Phillies are one three-game winning streak away from winning their second consecutive World Series. The Yankees, on the flip-side, are one three-game losing streak away from losing their third World Series in the past 9 years.
Worried about the chances here? Well, yeah, there are some statistical concerns, but nothing that's unprecedented, certainly not for the two teams that are squaring off.
This year, the Phillies had 12 winning streaks of 3 games or more. In fact, 57 of the Phillies' 92 wins, or 62%, came from winning streaks of 3 games or more. Such hot streaks were an essential part of the Phillies' 2009 season. And, to put the hot streaks in the same context as the Phillies' current predicament, two of them came following Phillies' losing streaks of 3 games or more. The Phillies know how to turn the tide and start winning.
For the Phillies' opponent, the Yankees had 7 losing streaks of 3 games or more this season. And, 4 of those 7 losing streaks came following winning streaks of 3 or more. The Yankees clearly know how to take "momentum" and lose it completely.
So, the Phillies can pull through, as they've done it many times this season. And the Yankees can falter as needed, since they've done it before.
Cliff Lee taking the mound tonight is a great way to start.
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Is there any way to make this thread troll proof outside of closing my eyes?
I just want to believe this will happen like an 8 year old.
by Steve J on Nov 2, 2009 11:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Sure Cliff Lee is a great start and I have every confidence he’ll pitch amazing again.
However, after Cliff Lee – combined with the way the bats have been performing – it’s hard to see hope.
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 2, 2009 11:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well not for you Polly
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 2, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not for anyone who understands math, which apparently excludes you.
The odds of winning any single game are in the neighborhood of 50% regardless of who’s playing or who’s pitching. The odds of going on a two-game winning streak are difficult, but it isn’t “hard to see hope” unless you take into account irrelevant factors like the momentum of the offense.
by taco pal on Nov 2, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, I understand math polly, and i understand how the odds look but there’s a balance between the math and reality.
Hard to see hope when you take in to account irrelevant factors like the performance of the players the past 5 games? Yes, I suppose how the phillies are playing is actually irrelevant. The fact that Ibanez looks like he’s aged 30 years at the plate or that howard seems pretty crappy at the plate, or rollins continuing his suckitude or carlos ruiz remembering, i’m great against the dogers i am mediocre against other teams.
Or the fact that the pitching staff is weak recently after Lee or that Charlie Manuel still thinks brad lidge is a closer.
Statistics are nice, and yes they have a ‘chance’ – but that dumb as in dumb and dumber had a chance to.
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 2, 2009 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s funny how you like to talk about small sample sizes when it suits you, but you suddenly reject the concept when it doesn’t. How convenient. Maybe you don’t really understand statistics as well you claim to.
Tell me, what do you think the BP odds will be if the Phillies win tonight? Do you really think they’ll be comparable to the Dumb and Dumber odds?
by taco pal on Nov 2, 2009 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
“Hit me with it. Just give it to me straight. The least you can do is level with me. What are my chances?
… not good
You mean, not good like one out of a hundred?
…I’d say like one in a million
So you’re saying I got a chance… YEAH"
by Boundforbeach on Nov 2, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
taco….why do you bother? He’s in harrass mode. Ignore.
by Bilzo on Nov 2, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don’t be on my side, please
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 2, 2009 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Come on – there are people in your life when they agree with you you start to doubt your own belief in what you said right?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 2, 2009 7:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This Is going to happen for sure… No dought:… Big bad Clifford is going to throw a no hitter we r going to be inspired.. Our playas r going to start hittin homeruns left and right … Game 6 Pedro shows the Yankees who really is their daddy and game 7 we close it out with cliff… Not hamels screw him I’m tired of seeing his perfectly parted hair waving in the wind( no homo). Let’s get this done…. Phillliiessssssssss
by eaglesfan20 on Nov 2, 2009 11:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Is there any way to make this thread troll proof outside of closing my eyes?
Does it count when the writer is theoretically a phillies fan?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 2, 2009 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My calculation match pretty well with those of Baseball Prospectus.
Yankees WP = 1 – (0.6 × 0.38 × 0.36) = 0.91792 = 91.792%
If you adjust the Phillies win probability of any of those three games down a little bit then you will get a closer match to BP.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Nov 2, 2009 12:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
13.68% (for the Phillies) if they win Game #5, given the odds posted right above.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Nov 2, 2009 12:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Take it one game at a time
I feel confident in the Phils with Lee going against Burnett on short rest. If we can win tonight, then we have Pedro vs. Pettite on short rest, a winnable game no doubt. Game 7 will be a crapshoot.
by Screen Name 20 on Nov 2, 2009 12:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
you took the words out of my mouth as I was typing it below.
by Clyde Simmons on Nov 2, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
U feel confident? WHY?
sure we got a chance but confident? No way
by DT1 on Nov 2, 2009 7:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is everyone just upset at the way we lost. I mean lets be honest…I was excited by the fact that we were even in that game at the end. I was totally expecting to lose that game….we were going up against CC who we could barely hit in game 1, and had Blanton pitching.
What I do like is that we have the pitching matchup the next 2 games in my opinion. We have Lee…who would give the phillies the better pitcher no matter who he was going up against, and then we have Pedro vs. Pettitte. We hit Pettite well enough to win…but Cole blew up in the 4th inning. I think we have the advantage in the next 2 games…I thought that before game 4, and I was expecting a loss last night, though hoping for a win.
If we can get to game 7 all bets are off.
by Clyde Simmons on Nov 2, 2009 12:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I wasn’t overly ticked. The way i saw it, Rivera was going to come in and face 9-1-2 regardless, and then we’d go to extra innings. Lidge not giving up runs didn’t guarantee a win. More likely by all means, (duh), but not a guarantee.
Lidge has pitched in 3 games against NYY and is 0-2 with 2 BS. He probably shouldn’t face them anymore.
by Bilzo on Nov 2, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think Rivera would have come in to a tie game…
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 2, 2009 2:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Before Damon got on, Coke was warming up.
"It was almost like if Harry didn't call it, it wasn't real." - Jayson Stark
by Chris Haines on Nov 2, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
is girardi so dumb as to not put rivera in a tie game?
by Bilzo on Nov 2, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's one of those rules
9th inning, tie game, on the road; don’t pitch your closer til you’re up.
by Screen Name 20 on Nov 2, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Most would find it dumb to turn your closer out in a tie game on the road
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 2, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
clarification
one game = BS
one game = BS + L
one game = L
so it’s not like he had one where he fared well.
by Bilzo on Nov 2, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Precedent shows Phils have a 9 percent chance of winning series
40 teams have won game 4 to take a 3-1 lead and 34 won the series, or 91 percent. That being said, conventional wisdom or just basic odds of the natural world are that all the bloops and seeing-eye hits the Yankees have gotten so far won’t continue and all the hard outs the Phils have had will find holes. That, to me, is one of the biggest differences.
by phillynyc on Nov 2, 2009 1:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well, that explains in small part the last few games, but doesn’t really help us “forecast” anything.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Nov 2, 2009 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You can talk about all these stats about how the Phils are destined to lose the series, and thats all great talk for the Yankees, but this is the Philadelphia Phillies. THE most resilient team in base baseball. I will be in SHOCK if our bats stay silent for the next three games. All im saying is that I got faith and im very confident in a game 7 matchup, but its gonna be our bats that get us there not our pitching. Lets tear this Yankee pitching staff a new one.
Only 3 games left Phillies…. I got faith. Put these Yankees to rest.
by MalibuLSV23 on Nov 2, 2009 1:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I’ve missed platitudes. I’d like to thank the phillies for making it possible for me to read almost every sports platitude in such a short period of time.
It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 2, 2009 1:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Rope-A-Dope
The Phillies have let the Yankees use all their big guns against us and we just sucked up the body blows. When you think we are just about to go down for the count, BLAM we bust you up good!
The Thrilla in Philla!
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
by jonk on Nov 2, 2009 2:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Except the Yankees haven't exactly been slugging us to death
They’ve been getting the timely infield hits, bloops and soft liners. Hopefully, that all starts to even out beginning tonight.
by Screen Name 20 on Nov 2, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
with lee going next game
the phillies have a great chance to swing momentum back there way. but i’m worried about having to win two games in new york. how many days rest will lee have for game seven? he needs to get off his ass and pitch that game.
by revived0103 on Nov 2, 2009 2:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
And so it begins
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 2, 2009 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
are you actually suggesting that Cliff Lee start Game Seven on two days’ rest?
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Nov 2, 2009 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
While that’s clearly not going to happen, I think he could be available to pitch a couple of innings in relief.
But let’s all just worry about tonight.
by taco pal on Nov 2, 2009 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Charlie said in his press conference the other day that game 7 is on Lee’s bullpen day. So he may be available for a few innings (2-3 max)
by Sals Stache on Nov 2, 2009 3:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
No, now that's just ridiculous talk
It would only be one, since we’re going to pitch him in Game 6 too.
by Screen Name 20 on Nov 2, 2009 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If they get it to Seven—at which point I think we’d all be pretty ecstatic anyway—I think you see pretty much everybody except maybe Pedro.
by dajafi on Nov 2, 2009 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And Hamels?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 2, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I personally would hope that Lidge and Hamels would have the flu, except to PR or be the emergency 6th OFer.
by Bilzo on Nov 2, 2009 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Down 3-1 with an ace in the hole
Years ago, when the St. Louis Cardinals were the best team in the NL (1964-68) they jumped out to a 3-1 lead in the 1968 series against the Tigers. They had just finished stomping the Tigers for the second straight game in Detroit. And they had “1968 Bob Gibson” waiting in the wings to pitch in game seven. The magic was apparently gone from Detroit’s great year. And then Mickey Lolich stepped up: after digging himself a 3-0 hole in the first inning Lolich threw eight shutout innings, scored the tying run in the 7th inning and won 5-3. Three days later he outpitched Gibson, yielding only a two-outs-in-the-9th home run, and won 4-1 in St. Louis. I don’t know if Cliff Lee could do anything like this, but I always imagined that Curt Schilling would have been willing to do it in 1993.
by phillyinportland on Nov 2, 2009 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
During the 1960s, Bob Gibson (‘64 St. Louis Cardinals), Sandy Koufax (’65 Los Angeles Dodgers) and Mickey Lolich (‘68 Detroit Tigers) all made victorious Game 7 starts on two days’ rest.
Not saying it’s necessarily the best idea. Or even something we need to think about right now, with a lot of work to do between now and then.
by Steve J on Nov 2, 2009 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn’t Bob Gibson at least a freak of nature?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 2, 2009 4:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A “horse”? I am really tired of hearing that word.
by Steve J on Nov 2, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You know who would know?
Tim McCarver
Gah!
by phillyinportland on Nov 2, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The only McCarver knows about pitching is that he couldn’t hit it.
by Pedro45 on Nov 2, 2009 6:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
haha
yeah i actually thought it would be three days rest. out of the bullpen would work though
by revived0103 on Nov 3, 2009 3:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I had to get some sleep, so I missed all the excitement last night. Glad I did. I am still hopeful, though.
by Ritty77 on Nov 2, 2009 2:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
wasn’t that big a kick, since we never led.
by Bilzo on Nov 2, 2009 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Never doubt the Phighten Phils... NEVER
eff you we winning anyway
by eagleswin on Nov 2, 2009 3:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The more I think about last night's game
The worse it feels to waste a game-tying 8th inning home run by Feliz.
by Screen Name 20 on Nov 2, 2009 3:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
How can it feel worse now than last night? I’m sure I wasn’t the only one screaming at the TV at midnight and sleeping fitfully thereafter. We blew a GREAT chance to get to Phil Coke and even this series. Its SICKENING. All we can do now is what every other fan down in a series 3-1 can do: invoke the sickening “one game at a time” mantra. Let’s go Cliff Lee!
by Boundforbeach on Nov 2, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Look people, a lot of us, myself included, wanted the Phillies to win in 5, which meant we were going to have to throw together a 3 game string. We just need to make that string games 5, 6, and 7. Totally doable if you keep these plans in check:
1) Do NOT use Hamels
2) Save Lidge for a game if/when we’re up by a couple runs
3) Take Rollins out of the lead off spot (too much pressure on him. Drop him down to #6 and I bet he explodes.)
4) Chan Ho Park, thanks but no thanks
5) Game 5 Lee, Game 6 Pedro. Bullpen- use Happ and Madsen.
6) Game 7, Lee and Pedro come into use too. Last game, there is no tomorrow, everyone gets used.
7) Howard, Rollins, Victorino, Ibanez need batting practice! And lots of it!
I may be in denial but this series ain’t over until someone wins 4, and we’ve all seen teams be up 3-1 and lose. Anyone remember the Flyers/Devils of 2000 I think it was? The main thing to remember here is although we are down we aren’t out yet. This team has heart and we’re fighters and We. Don’t. Quit. Let’s go out and play like we’re the defending champs and see what happens. No more mistakes. Everybody has to be on the same page now. But even if we did lose to the spankmees, it was one hell of a ride getting here and we’ll be back again next year. But that’s getting ahead, they need to keep focused on each game and make no mistakes. Our mistakes are what got us in this hole and it’s time to pull out the shovels and start digging out. Let’s go Phillies!!!
by Kanayd on Nov 2, 2009 4:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
1. Unlikely. He’ll be our game 7 pticher.
2. Ideally, we’ll never see him again this series, but Charlies likes to stick with “his guy”
3. Never going to happen. Never.
4. Unlikely
5. Duh. Lee’s pitching tonite. Pedro likely in Games 6.
6. Sigh… Pedro to pitch games 6 and 7 huh? And Lee in Game 7 as well? Sigh
7. Hmmm. Batting Practice? How innovative. I’m sure they never thought of that
by Boundforbeach on Nov 2, 2009 5:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if Hamels is game 7 SP we Lose
it is obvious
by DT1 on Nov 2, 2009 7:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m optimistic. We can do this!
by besam32 on Nov 2, 2009 5:27 PM EST via mobile reply actions 0 recs
I cried last night after the game
I was mourning the loss of this World Series. I still don’t think the Phils will win it, but I want them to put up a heck of a fight. I’m not going to be able to see tonight’s game, but I believe in Cliff Lee. Send this Series back to New York!
That ball hit deep! Way back! You can put it on the boooaaaard...YES!
Long drive into deep right center field! This ball is OUTTA HEEERRRREE!
R.I.P. Harry Kalas 4-13-09
by HappyHuman on Nov 2, 2009 5:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I knew if Howard wasn’t hitting well this was a possibility
I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.
by Christopher A on Nov 2, 2009 7:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
you gotta love stats!!!
Like playing .500 baseball in elimination games just won’t cut it!!!
by Togaman7 on Nov 5, 2009 2:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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