Phillies 2010 ZiPS Projections

Dive on in. Chase Utley remains the king. Cole Hamels will bounce back. And that Michael Taylor projection is intriguing...

Please note: To be taken with a grain of salt.

8 months ago WholeCamels 11 comments 0 recs |

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Yeah, but ZiPS obviously doesn’t take into account that Hamels is a gutless pretty boy who doesn’t have the fire necessary to be a true ace. No amount of statistical projection can tell me what I know in my gut: that he just can’t cut it, and that we should trade him for Halladay immediately.

by PhillyFriar on Nov 21, 2009 4:23 PM EST reply actions

Halladay?

I’d gladly shove him out to sea for a middle reliever!

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Nov 21, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions

Werth have a worse season? Not buying.

by Michael Levin on Nov 21, 2009 6:32 PM EST reply actions

Really?

He had the best season of his career last year, better than any season in the minors, and at age 30. He’s an interesting case, as injuries really messed up the early part of his career, but if I were a betting man I’d bet on a slight decline next year, maybe ~.850 OPS.

by phatj on Nov 21, 2009 8:55 PM EST up reply actions

That’s actually more pessimistic than the ZIPS projection.

The ZIPS is kind of screwed up because it projects Werth only getting 426 AB next year, which obviously won’t happen unless he gets hurt (which, admittedly, is possible). A computer-generated projection isn’t able to recognize the fact that Werth’s PT increased over the last two years because of a conscious choice by the organization and thus isn’t particularly likely to go back down next year. If you project the ZIPS over a full season, they say Werth will basically do the same thing next year that he did this year.

by taco pal on Nov 21, 2009 9:10 PM EST up reply actions

Apparently Werth gets fewer projected ABs than Mayberry.

by Cormican on Nov 22, 2009 8:06 PM EST up reply actions

Don’t forget, most of Mayberry’s ABs will probably be in the Lehigh Valley

by NowWhat? on Nov 23, 2009 10:51 AM EST up reply actions

Maybe we should re-sign Matt Stairs. (Kidding, mostly.)

Andy Tracy with 20 HR, 80 RBI! And Baseball Cube says he used to play 3B! I’m just going to assume he was a bad fielder there, though, on the theory that he wouldn’t have been moved to 1B otherwise.

by taco pal on Nov 21, 2009 9:21 PM EST reply actions