World Series Simulation, Game #6
I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Phillies and Yankees using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Monday at 930PM)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob | AccuScore |
| PHI |
NYA |
P.Martinez vs A.Pettitte | NYA | 64.97% |
64.66% |
61% |
Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... Vegas and my simulator are in almost perfect agreement on the Yankees win probability. Once again the key for the Phillies will be to silence the heart of the Yankees order as much as possible. Not an easy thing to do.
|
Top 50 Most Likely Scores |
|
| 1 | NYA 4-3 |
| 2 | NYA 3-2 |
| 3 | NYA 5-4 |
| 4 | NYA 6-5 |
| 5 | NYA 2-1 |
| 6 | PHI 4-3 |
| 7 | NYA 4-2 |
| 8 | PHI 3-2 |
| 9 | PHI 5-4 |
| 10 | NYA 5-3 |
| 11 | NYA 3-1 |
| 12 | NYA 4-1 |
| 13 | NYA 5-2 |
| 14 | NYA 7-6 |
| 15 | NYA 6-2 |
| 16 | NYA 6-4 |
| 17 | NYA 6-3 |
| 18 | NYA 5-1 |
| 19 | PHI 4-2 |
| 20 | PHI 5-3 |
| 21 | PHI 2-1 |
| 22 | NYA 3-0 |
| 23 | NYA 7-2 |
| 24 | PHI 6-5 |
| 25 | PHI 6-4 |
| 26 | NYA 7-1 |
| 27 | NYA 4-0 |
| 28 | NYA 7-3 |
| 29 | PHI 5-2 |
| 30 | NYA 7-4 |
| 31 | PHI 3-1 |
| 32 | PHI 6-3 |
| 33 | NYA 6-1 |
| 34 | NYA 7-5 |
| 35 | NYA 8-3 |
| 36 | PHI 4-1 |
| 37 | NYA 8-7 |
| 38 | NYA 1-0 |
| 39 | NYA 2-0 |
| 40 | PHI 7-4 |
| 41 | NYA 5-0 |
| 42 | PHI 7-5 |
| 43 | PHI 7-6 |
| 44 | NYA 8-4 |
| 45 | PHI 6-2 |
| 46 | NYA 6-0 |
| 47 | NYA 8-2 |
| 48 | NYA 8-1 |
| 49 | NYA 9-3 |
| 50 | PHI 7-3 |
| 51 | PHI 5-1 |
| 52 | NYA 8-5 |
| 53 | NYA 8-6 |
| 54 | NYA 9-2 |
| 55 | PHI 2-0 |
| 56 | PHI 8-6 |
| 57 | NYA 9-4 |
| 58 | PHI 8-4 |
| 59 | NYA 9-8 |
| 60 | PHI 8-3 |
| 61 | NYA 7-0 |
| 62 | NYA 10-2 |
| 63 | NYA 9-1 |
| 64 | PHI 6-1 |
| 65 | PHI 8-5 |
| 66 | PHI 4-0 |
| 67 | PHI 8-7 |
| 68 | NYA 9-5 |
| 69 | NYA 8-0 |
| 70 | PHI 7-2 |
| 71 | NYA 10-4 |
| 72 | PHI 3-0 |
| 73 | NYA 10-3 |
| 74 | PHI 1-0 |
| 75 | PHI 8-2 |
| 76 | NYA 9-6 |
| 77 | PHI 7-1 |
| 78 | NYA 10-1 |
| 79 | NYA 10-5 |
| 80 | NYA 9-0 |
| 81 | PHI 9-8 |
| 82 | PHI 9-4 |
| 83 | PHI 5-0 |
| 84 | NYA 11-3 |
| 85 | NYA 11-5 |
| 86 | PHI 9-5 |
| 87 | PHI 8-1 |
| 88 | PHI 9-2 |
| 89 | PHI 9-3 |
| 90 | NYA 11-2 |
| 91 | NYA 11-1 |
| 92 | PHI 9-6 |
| 93 | NYA 9-7 |
| 94 | NYA 10-6 |
| 95 | NYA 11-4 |
| 96 | PHI 10-3 |
| 97 | PHI 9-7 |
| 98 | PHI 6-0 |
| 99 | NYA 10-9 |
| 100 | PHI 10-5 |
|
Game Pitching Results |
||||||
| Pitcher | IP | SO | BB | HR | WHIP | FIP |
| P.Martinez | 6.4 | 3.994 | 2.521 | 1.17 | 1.465 | 5.524 |
| A.Pettitte | 7.0 | 5.164 | 2.746 | 0.78 | 1.255 | 4.360 |
Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.
| Simulation Lineups | ||||
| Name | wOBA | Name | wOBA | |
| 1 | J.Rollins | .2986 | D.Jeter | .3301 |
| 2 | S.Victorino | .2937 | J.Damon | .3450 |
| 3 | C.Utley | .3195 | M.Teixeira | .3843 |
| 4 | R.Howard | .3124 | A.Rodriguez | .3837 |
| 5 | J.Werth | .3282 | H.Matsui | .3533 |
| 6 | R.Ibanez | .3052 | J.Posada | .3590 |
| 7 | B.Francisco | .2921 | N.Swisher | .3454 |
| 8 | P.Feliz | .2810 | R.Cano | .3233 |
| 9 | C.Ruiz | .2821 | B.Gardner | .3003 |
0 recs |
14 comments
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Comments
Can you run the sim again for Gaudin starting since it looks like that is a possibility too?
by FuquaManuel on Nov 3, 2009 1:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
61.26%
I also replaced B.Francisco with M.Stairs since Gaudin is a RHP. Gaudin struck out more batters than Pettitte did but also walked quite a few more. Howard did quite a bit better vs Gaudin than Pettite and Werth did better against Pettitte.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Nov 3, 2009 1:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How does the simulator take short rest into account?
say hey nation is the Ralph Nader of McC.-Xanthan
by say hey nation on Nov 3, 2009 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A small penalty to the pitcher. ie – a hit to their K rate.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Nov 3, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey Xeifrank ;-)
Q: What is the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid field ?
A: “Never tell me the odds.” – Han Solo
by ajay on Nov 3, 2009 2:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'll take the 100th most likely outcome
A 10-5 Phillies victory would be nice.
by David S. Cohen on Nov 3, 2009 1:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think I like #98 better
6-0 would definitely cause some consternation in the Big Rotten Apple.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
by The Dark on Nov 3, 2009 1:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In score #101
which I didn’t have room to print, a very strange thing happened. The game went on and on and both teams ran out of pitchers, so the simulated commissioner (Bud Intel Jr) cancelled the World Series and said we will go double or nothing on next years W.S. What exactly that means I am not sure.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Nov 3, 2009 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Was #102 the 37-36 game with winning pitcher Bruntlett and a blown save by Matsui?
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
by The Dark on Nov 3, 2009 2:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fwiw, Wall Street money is moving the line in favor of the Yankees. Vegas win probability for the Yankees is now up to 65.87%.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Nov 4, 2009 1:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Note out of First 20 simulations Phils win 5
the other 15 all Yankees.
On top of that keep in mind that only 1 time in the 5 games have the phils even come back to TIE the game
and Howards awful slump and high likelihood he stikes out 2 ..3.. or 4 more times.
I am NOT optimisitic
by DT1 on Nov 4, 2009 5:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Score #28 Hits
And the season is over for Cole Hamels.
vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Nov 5, 2009 12:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

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