FanPost

World Series Simulation, Game #6

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Phillies and Yankees using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Monday at 930PM)

 

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
PHI
NYA
P.Martinez vs A.Pettitte NYA 64.97%
64.66%
61%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... Vegas and my simulator are in almost perfect agreement on the Yankees win probability.  Once again the key for the Phillies will be to silence the heart of the Yankees order as much as possible.  Not an easy thing to do.

 

Top 50 Most Likely Scores

1 NYA 4-3
2 NYA 3-2
3 NYA 5-4
4 NYA 6-5
5 NYA 2-1
6 PHI 4-3
7 NYA 4-2
8 PHI 3-2
9 PHI 5-4
10 NYA 5-3
11 NYA 3-1
12 NYA 4-1
13 NYA 5-2
14 NYA 7-6
15 NYA 6-2
16 NYA 6-4
17 NYA 6-3
18 NYA 5-1
19 PHI 4-2
20 PHI 5-3
21 PHI 2-1
22 NYA 3-0
23 NYA 7-2
24 PHI 6-5
25 PHI 6-4
26 NYA 7-1
27 NYA 4-0
28 NYA 7-3
29 PHI 5-2
30 NYA 7-4
31 PHI 3-1
32 PHI 6-3
33 NYA 6-1
34 NYA 7-5
35 NYA 8-3
36 PHI 4-1
37 NYA 8-7
38 NYA 1-0
39 NYA 2-0
40 PHI 7-4
41 NYA 5-0
42 PHI 7-5
43 PHI 7-6
44 NYA 8-4
45 PHI 6-2
46 NYA 6-0
47 NYA 8-2
48 NYA 8-1
49 NYA 9-3
50 PHI 7-3
51 PHI 5-1
52 NYA 8-5
53 NYA 8-6
54 NYA 9-2
55 PHI 2-0
56 PHI 8-6
57 NYA 9-4
58 PHI 8-4
59 NYA 9-8
60 PHI 8-3
61 NYA 7-0
62 NYA 10-2
63 NYA 9-1
64 PHI 6-1
65 PHI 8-5
66 PHI 4-0
67 PHI 8-7
68 NYA 9-5
69 NYA 8-0
70 PHI 7-2
71 NYA 10-4
72 PHI 3-0
73 NYA 10-3
74 PHI 1-0
75 PHI 8-2
76 NYA 9-6
77 PHI 7-1
78 NYA 10-1
79 NYA 10-5
80 NYA 9-0
81 PHI 9-8
82 PHI 9-4
83 PHI 5-0
84 NYA 11-3
85 NYA 11-5
86 PHI 9-5
87 PHI 8-1
88 PHI 9-2
89 PHI 9-3
90 NYA 11-2
91 NYA 11-1
92 PHI 9-6
93 NYA 9-7
94 NYA 10-6
95 NYA 11-4
96 PHI 10-3
97 PHI 9-7
98 PHI 6-0
99 NYA 10-9
100 PHI 10-5

 

Game Pitching Results

Pitcher IP SO BB HR WHIP FIP
P.Martinez 6.4 3.994 2.521 1.17 1.465 5.524
A.Pettitte 7.0 5.164 2.746 0.78 1.255 4.360

 


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
  Name wOBA Name wOBA
1 J.Rollins .2986 D.Jeter .3301
2 S.Victorino .2937 J.Damon .3450
3 C.Utley .3195 M.Teixeira .3843
4 R.Howard .3124 A.Rodriguez .3837
5 J.Werth .3282 H.Matsui .3533
6 R.Ibanez .3052 J.Posada .3590
7 B.Francisco .2921 N.Swisher .3454
8 P.Feliz .2810 R.Cano .3233
9 C.Ruiz .2821 B.Gardner .3003

 



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