Next Year!
by jonk on Nov 4, 2009 11:59 PM EST
112 comments
Who's excited for next year?
Full year of Cliff Lee?
Hamels will return to form.
Chooch turning into a stud.
More Werth antics.
Beating the Mets!
How long til pitchers and catchers report?
1 recs |
112 comments
| Add comment
Email
Print
Comments
I’m going to put an ad on Craigslist… “DESPERATE PHILLIES FAN looking for third baseman! I’m the creative type. Maybe we can help each other out?”
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Nov 5, 2009 12:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I would like to see them work out a three-way deal with:
Raul —> team that could use a corner OF like maybe the Giants
Prospects from that team —> Reds
Scott Rolen —> Phillies (redemption story!)
And Michael Taylor would come up and be our opening day LF.
Make it happen, Ruben!
by taco pal on Nov 5, 2009 10:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes to everything but Rolen.
I live a few miles from the Carolina Mudcats (AA for the Reds and go to several games a year), I like some of the Reds prospects a whole lot as players, I’d rather just get Reds prospects directly. (Todd Frazier actually reminds me a little of Utley.)
by Cormican on Nov 5, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but no way a rebuilding small-market team would ever give us prospects in exchange for a 37-year-old veteran.
A contending big-market team might though. Maybe a team like the Giants would.
But if we can unload Ibanez, the best chance we have of getting something of value in return is someone who’s just like him (older, short-term, big-money) but plays a different position.
by taco pal on Nov 5, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just think Rolen hated Philly so much he’d sooner retire than return.
by Cormican on Nov 5, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he mainly hated Bowa. Actually I guess he hated Dallas Green too. But still, Rolen’s old now. Maybe he’s mellowed. At some point you’ve just got to leave the past in the past.
by taco pal on Nov 5, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he fell into the “philly fans are too critical” description. I don’t think it was just Bowa and DG.
by Bilzo on Nov 5, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he fell into the ‘philly fans are too critical for the dumbest ass reasons’ category actually
And for quite a large portion of the fan base he’s probably correct
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
When Rolen was available, I remember reading a piece where he said he would be amenable to coming back to Philly. His issues were really more with the teams apparent lack of desire to win, Bowa and to a lesser extent, the BS that comes from playing for a team like Philly/NY/etc. He hated the media side of things and doing stuff for the fans.
by doubleh on Nov 5, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That’s what I was thinking. Don’t get me wrong if Rolen would come back I could live with it. It’s still not a long term solution though.
Besides, I’ve been thinking there must be some other reason he wanted to go to the Reds. That was a weird trade. Going from one non-contender to another, makes me wonder if there was some other issue (family problem he wanted to be closer to home for, locker room lawyer issues, etc.)
by Cormican on Nov 5, 2009 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely not a long-term solution, but Taylor is a long-term solution in LF.
Right now, between LF and 3B, we have one short-term solution and one zero. If we could swing this trade, we’d have one long-term solution and one short-term solution. That’s a win in my book.
by taco pal on Nov 5, 2009 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I may come around on this (if I need to).
by Cormican on Nov 5, 2009 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In his defense, I’m not found of either Bowa or Green either
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oooh oooh me me me!
Michael Taylor, Kyle Drabek, no more Feliz, better Lidge (hopefully), etc. etc.
This isn’t over.
by FuquaManuel on Nov 5, 2009 12:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yet another reason I’m not totally devastated tonight is the wealth of talent on the farm right now. They’re gonna be good for awhile.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Nov 5, 2009 12:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just said to a buddy of mine, “How much more devastated would we be right now if we had Roy Halladay… and still lost Game 6? No Drabek or Domonic Brown to look forward to, and on the hook for $7.75 million more in payroll?”
by PhillyFriar on Nov 5, 2009 12:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeesh. Seriously.
Of course there will be a push from some quarters to trade those prospects for some stud veteran this offseason too. There’s always a push from some quarters to trade prospects no matter what situation the team is in.
by taco pal on Nov 5, 2009 10:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I almost spit out my coffee at that in horror. So glad we got Clifton Phifer Lee, so glad.
The farm is stacked. We should be contending over the next five years.
"Want a donut go to dunkin donuts, want a linebacker go to Penn State."
- Cris Carter, NFL Draft, 4/25/09
by kmblue on Nov 5, 2009 10:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
To contend over the next five years they need a quality left fielder 3rd baseman and short stop
As far as I can tell they have one of those things even close to ready
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Forgot to mention Happ’s regression to the mean, which will most likely suck. But it might not be so bad…
by FuquaManuel on Nov 5, 2009 2:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That has to be counterbalanced by Cole’s regression to the mean, right?
BABIP!
by PhillyFriar on Nov 5, 2009 9:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Even Happ’s “mean” this year was alright. And his “mean” can also improve.
by taco pal on Nov 5, 2009 10:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It won't be so bad
especially for a 4th starter.
by Screen Name 20 on Nov 5, 2009 10:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I dont think Happ will regress. i see him being a solid starter for us. he is soo young. hopefully we get drabek in the pen next year also.
by ssean2266 on Nov 5, 2009 8:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Happ will regress some, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be a good pitcher.
Drabek in the pen is a bad idea. Why would you start his service clock just to use him in middle relief?
Drabek should stay down in the minors until he proves he can be consistently effective at AAA for an extended period of time. ETA – Opening Day 2011.
by taco pal on Nov 5, 2009 10:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Drabek should be in Lehigh Valley starting in April. If he’s good enough, he could be with the big club by the all-star break. Taylor and Drabek developing. The core is still young. It’s still an exciting time to be a Phillies fan.
Going to take me a bit to get over this one, though.
by wildcatlh on Nov 5, 2009 10:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The core is still young if you’re ready to remove Jimmy Rollins from the core – and the phils have no foreseeable replacement
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thoughts from The Dark side:
The right side of the field is fine. Howard, Utley, and Werth are all among the best at their positions. The left side makes me a bit more nervous. Feliz is fine in the field but a massive liability at the plate, Ibanez is at a bad age, and I’m even shaky on Jimmy after this past season. If we can deal Ibanez and replace him with either Francisco or Mayberry, I’d be fine with that. Victorino and Chooch stay.
For pitching, I think we have four solid starters in Lee, Hamels, Blanton, and Happ (assuming Hamels remains only mildly neurotic). I’d like another right-handed pitcher.
We need one right-handed power bat. Sure, it’s nice to have Jimmy and Shane switch-hit, but Werth’s the only true right-handed batter that’s a threat at the plate. With Howard, Utley, and Ibanez all being lefties, we’re too heavily weighted towards left-handed batters.
I won’t even address the bullpen. Most relievers seem to me to be so inconsistent that it’s a crapshoot picking them.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
by The Dark on Nov 5, 2009 10:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
No.
If the Phightins are going to replace Feliz, and they’re going to go the free agent route, I’d go for Chone Figgins. Glaus and Beltre are too risky for me.
by wildcatlh on Nov 5, 2009 10:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m all for Figgins, hes 32, he is a legit lead off man and puts a hell of a lot more speed in the lineup, he steals bases like its nothing
by Ant on Nov 5, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The phillies are already the best base stealing team in the league…Im all for getting a new 3rd baseman but a 32 year old who is going to be looking for a long term deal and too much money always concerns me.
And how did his 2009 (contract drive) season compare to the more recent seasons?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just on pure numbers
His numbers in 2009 are fairly comparable to the last few seasons. The difference is that he missed a chunk of time due to injury in ’07 and ’08, but was healthy and productive all year this year.
2009: 158 games played, .298/.395/.393, 5 HR, 54 RBI, 101 walks against 114 strikeouts, 42 SB, 17 CS
2008: 116 games played, .276/.367/.318, 1 HR, 22 RBI, 62 walks against 80 strikeouts, 32 SB, 13 CS
2007: 115 games played, .330/.393/.432, 3 HR, 58 RBI, 51 walks against 81 strikeouts, 41 SB, 12 CS
2006: 155 games played, .267/.336/.376, 9 HR, 62 RBI, 65 walks against 100 strikeouts, 52 SB, 16 CS
by wildcatlh on Nov 5, 2009 12:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
2008 he was injured too? or just didn’t play?
Yes he stole a lot of bases this year but his percentage was weak, only 71%. the phillies don’t need more bad base stealers and they don’t need to over pay a 32 year old
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yup, signing Figgins now would be the classic case of buying high. Not a fan.
The free agent I’d have the most interest in is Adrian Beltre, though as a Boras client, my interest would be heavily dependent on what he’s asking for. Beltre’s sort of a rich man’s Pedro Feliz — not a ton of patience at the plate, but solid power and an excellent glove. Plus, as a right-handed hitter, he would be enormously helped by moving from Safeco to CBP. 2 years at $9-10 million per with a 3rd year option would be just fine with me.
by PhillyFriar on Nov 5, 2009 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
is the economy substantially better than last year that those kind of deals will be out there? Remember, the angels got Abreu for 5 million dollars…it’s a ‘buyers market’ even for the great boras if the yankees and red sox aren’t interested (and keep in mind folks, mike lowell is old…so they could be a 3rd base player which complicates things for the phillies)
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It depends on what level of interest there is in Beltre. I’d expect Figgins to be the hot commodity at the position, with the White Sox, Angels, and maybe even the Giants interested. Whatever deal Figgins signs will determine how the rest of the market shapes up.
I fear that the analogy to the Abreu situation falls apart at that point. When Figgins signs, Beltre immediately becomes the most attractive third baseman on the market. Abreu waited around for so long because he was just one of many all-bat, no-glove outfielders in a buyer’s market.
by PhillyFriar on Nov 5, 2009 12:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
According to the link provided in this thread yes
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You left the red sox out of the 3rd base equation – would they not be interested in figgins or do you feel they’ll refer to move Youk to 3rd and find a first baseman?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t necessarily rule them out on the third base front, but the better value bet for them is probably to do what you suggested, i.e. move Youk to third and explore the first base market. Theo has already talked about next offseason being a turning point for the franchise, so I’d be surprised if they made any big moves this year.
by PhillyFriar on Nov 5, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How nice is it to have a guy who can play first and third at a major league level and have enough offense to justify play at either position.
Le Sigh
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Beltre and Figgins to a lesser extent are probably the ‘best’ of a bad crop – but with Boras involved and the Red Sox in need of a 3rd baseman younger than Lowell I suspect I’ll read that the phils pick up Feliz option for 2010
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
does he get on 1b enough to steal bases?
by Bilzo on Nov 5, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I know it’s the back end of the rotation but Moyer is probably done, forever, and projecting drabek ready after one year in the minors seems a little optimistic.
I would trade Shane Victorino if they can’t find a taker for Ibanez because I doubt his value will ever be higher and that he can maintain a level of performance that he did this year – plus if Taylor is as good an athlete as advertised, shouldn’t he be able to play center field?
Obviously we need a 3rd baseman improvement, i’d like the team to find a shortstop prospect who could be ready in 2-3 years because I think the end for Rollins is near and going to be painful to watch.
Per usual – the bull pen needs tinkering but i’m ok with keeping lidge, i don’t think he’s going to be as bad as this year nor as good as the year before, but somewhere in the middle isn’t that bad, really.
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 11:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
In that case, we’d more likely see Werth in center and Taylor in right.
by taco pal on Nov 5, 2009 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
All I know about Taylor is really the hype – the hype sounds like he should be able to handle center fine.
I agree that an OF should be traded, I think Victorino has the most trade value and is most likely to fall off ‘more’ from overall this years performance.
but that’s just my opinioni
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For all the things that he is, one thing Taylor is not is a center fielder. He can play there in a pinch a la Mayberry, but you’re giving away 15 runs a year off the bat by sticking him in center.
That’s not to knock Taylor, as he may profile as a legitimate right fielder, and most certainly would be an above-average left fielder.
by PhillyFriar on Nov 5, 2009 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks…just didn’t know.
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone been to spring training before? I’m thinking of making my first trip down in ’10.
by taco pal on Nov 5, 2009 11:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Went in 01 or 02. It’s a blast, beautiful weather, games, check out the prospects (players and ladies, though I’m married now, so less checking out the latter for me), Salvador Dali museum. Good stuff.
by Cormican on Nov 5, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rumor floating around that Mark Teahen of the Royals is in play, he’s been a 3rd basemen before.
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 11:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I’ll pass. He’s only somewhat better than Feliz as a hitter, and he’s a bad fielder.
by taco pal on Nov 5, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well replacing Feliz probably means a down grrade in fielding – how much better a hitter do you want – a career OBP of 331 vs Feliz 293 (ugh really) and about a 40 point higher career OPS – plus YOUNG
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If he were a FA I might be interested, but I don’t know if I’d want to give up prospects to get a guy like that.
by taco pal on Nov 5, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would think it wouldn’t cost a lot of prospects to get it done – there’s a rumor of a royals/sox (white) swap with players named but i have no idea of the quality of them
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll pass too.
His glove simply isn’t good at third base, and his bat has regressed over the past few years (he doesn’t walk, he doesn’t hit for much power, and his strikeout rate is very poor considering those first two factors). Plus he’s due to make at least $4 million or so this year.
I don’t even think he’d be an upgrade on Feliz. He’d be different, but probably not an upgrade.
by PhillyFriar on Nov 5, 2009 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
When I was reading it (an hour ago) it was still more of rumor – not confirmed – ah well
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone know where that list of free agents is available on line?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 11:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks…well first thing to notice is that feliz isn’t even guaranteed for next year – please ruben – make the smart move.
Then the next thing you notice is that it isn’t exactly a full boat of quality 3rd base free agents – and most of them are at 31+
Beltre or Figgins but not for too long and not for too much money – i mean let’s be smart and not over pay in the weak economy THIS off season right?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 11:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What about Juan Uribe? Decent fielder (.960 fld% to a .957 average among 3B). OBP’s not great at 298, but his 729 OPS is decent, and he hit 16 homeruns for the Giants, even with that cavernous stadium.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
by The Dark on Nov 5, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Old and a career OBP under 300 – is his bat really much better to warrant the defense step down (and his home/road OPS split last year was extreme I think)
Is he really worth more than a year when feliz can cost 5 million?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, you’re probably right. He’d be a marginal move both ways (he’s almost as good a fielder as Feliz, but with a weaker arm, and a better hitter with no better of an eye).
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
by The Dark on Nov 5, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Madson?
Based on that website, Madson is a free agent? Thought we had a longer deal with him.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/a-look-at-the-2.html#comments
how do we feel about making a run after garrett atkins?
by ajr142 on Nov 5, 2009 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
According to your link you’re looking at the list from december 2008 – wouldn’t that be last off seasons list?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it does say 2008 in the web address, but damon, holliday, beltre, myers etc. are on that link and they are FAs this year. might just be an oversight on the websites part but i didn’t see anything to disprove.
even the comments on the page are listed as late 2008. somethings wrong on that.
by ajr142 on Nov 5, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Madson signed a 3 year, $12 million contract with the Phillies in Jan 2009.
by doubleh on Nov 5, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sort of mind-boggling that he hasn’t at least gotten a cup of coffee, having posted solid Triple-A numbers for two years running. Good walk rate, solid power, and TotalZone (on MinorLeagueSplits) seems to like his fielding. Plus he’s played all three infield spots (other than first) and even a little left field.
Wonder if he’s a minor league free agent? If not a starting third baseman, he at least looks like an immediate upgrade on Eric Bruntlett.
by PhillyFriar on Nov 5, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wikipedia says he’s a free agent, for whatever that’s worth.
Anyone know Amaro’s e-mail address?
by taco pal on Nov 5, 2009 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Eh…Heether’s batting .293 in AAA with a 1.42 K/BB ratio (although his .976 fld% in AAA is pretty good), and we cracked on Rollins this year for his .250 BA with a 1.59 K/BB (Feliz hit .266 with a 1.94 K/BB ratio). He’d be a good utility infielder off the bench, but I’m not (yet) sold on him starting the the majors.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
by The Dark on Nov 5, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Could do that. I don’t dislike Heether, I’m just not sure I want him being the only option at 3B.
15.6% walk rate…that’s about the same as Utley (15.4%), so it’s actually pretty good. Looking at his K/BB ratio, that means I’m not unhappy about his walks, I’m just not happy about his strikeout rate of 22.2%.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
by The Dark on Nov 5, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That’s the beauty of dumpster-diving I guess. You can try multiple alternative approaches and not worry about the money you’ll lose on the options that don’t pan out.
by taco pal on Nov 5, 2009 2:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Of course the converse (if i can explain it properly as i see it in my mind, somtimes a problem) is that you’re less likely to ‘strike gold’ when diving in said dumpster and the garbage you find might not be much better than the feliz you already have
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There’s a time and a place for everything.
I think it’s worth it to at least consider a dumpster dive here just because the market in third basemen is so weak. In fact, the position in general is weak all around baseball these days.
Obviously, you don’t want to dumpster dive for all positions at all times.
by taco pal on Nov 5, 2009 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But is it worth it in the context of you first have to decide on Feliz – do you pick up the option or pay him 500K to go away and hope you find something better, or do you pick up the 5 million option because the odds of something that much better (overall, not just at the plate of course) aren’t better than paying feliz 5 million (which really isn’t a lot of money in baseball terms)?
If you pick up the optoin aren’t you really telling feliz he’s the starter, and if you don’t, you have to hope you get lucky in the dumpster diving?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 5, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t pick up the option. The dumpster will produce something at least close to as good as Feliz for less than $4.5 million. The choice is between the dumpster and somebody like Beltre/Glaus/Figgins/etc.
by taco pal on Nov 5, 2009 3:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t pick up the option either.
Feliz is a GG 3Bman, but a AA bat. If he’s back next year (which wouldn’t be the end of the world), I don’t think you pay him 5 million. I don’t expect him to get a raise.
by Bilzo on Nov 5, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
previous 3B dumpster choice:
Wes Helms.
How’d that work out?
by Bilzo on Nov 5, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You realize that isn’t exactly an airtight logical argument, don’t you?
by taco pal on Nov 5, 2009 4:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
absolutely.
Dumpster diving goes both ways, but when you go in the dumpster, more often than not you get…well….trash.
by Bilzo on Nov 5, 2009 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You might want to refer to my 12:01 PM PST comment, which already anticipated this point.
by taco pal on Nov 5, 2009 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Other possible replacements for Feliz during/after next season
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=walker001nei (from Pittsburgh minors) – more of a work in process
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/freesda01.shtml (from St Louis) – I don’t think we could get him, but day-amn I’d like to have him. No, I don’t think he’d hit that well long-term, but he was .304/.363/.542 in AAA, with a .955 fld% at 3B.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
by The Dark on Nov 6, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
what do y’all think about trading Werth?
I hear a lot of talk about ditching Vic because some think this is as good as he’s going to be.
I honestly think this past season from Werth is about his ceiling. Thoughts?
by Bilzo on Nov 7, 2009 12:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Even if Werth regresses, he’s still better than Victorino.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Nov 7, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
unless Vic gets better….
(and we’re all just guessing here)
by Bilzo on Nov 7, 2009 10:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vic turns 29 this month. WWSIWWG with Vic going forward, in all likelihood.
Werth is at worst a minor downgrade from Vic in center field and a much better hitter.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Nov 8, 2009 10:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It kind of depends on who we get back. Discussing trades is pointless unless we have an idea what both sides of the potential trades would be.
Werth is a more valuable commodity than Victorino, and Victorino is a more valuable commodity than Ibanez.
If you assume the trade market is efficient, then it doesn’t matter who you trade. The value you get back will be equal to the value you give up.
If the trade market isn’t efficient, then you should obviously trade whoever is the most overvalued.
I don’t think we can assume any of those guys will be overvalued. Ruben’s just going to have to go and make calls. If all of their trade market values are equal to their real values, then I think we should trade the least valuable commodity, on the theory that if each trade is value-neutral, then just make the least disruptive, least risky trade. That means trading Ibanez.
by taco pal on Nov 7, 2009 7:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
While we can’t assume any of those guys would be overvalue, I think it’d be most likely that Werth would be over-valued amongst the three. He’s coming off a 35+ HR year, with an ASG appearance, and lots of dingers in the post-season, which garners extra attention.
by Bilzo on Nov 7, 2009 10:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And a career high OPS against righties his biggest ‘perceived’ weakness….
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 8, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
None of that makes him more likely to be overvalued. “Overvalued” isn’t the same thing as “highly valued.”
by taco pal on Nov 8, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
of course it’s not. What I’m saying is what Werth did this year was probably a bit more than any of us expected, especially with his post-season raking.
I really expect him to regress to the mean next year.
by Bilzo on Nov 9, 2009 8:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OK, but what’s his mean? Werth’s HR rate in 2009 was roughly equivalent to his HR rate in 2008 and his BB rate only increased a little. After 2008, there was nothing really surprising about Werth’s 2009 – he just played more games. And it isn’t like he never showed signs of this before 2008 either. The year before he injured his wrist, Werth hit 16 HR in 326 PA at age 25 for the Dodgers. He was a longshot when we signed him because of his injury history, but now that he’s proven that he’s fully healthy again, none of this is particularly surprising.
In my view, Werth is no likelier to regress next year than Victorino is. I think there’s a fair chance that both of them repeat their 2009 performances.
by taco pal on Nov 9, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His performance against right handed hitters will most likely regress
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 9, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe a little, but you’re talking about a pretty modest difference. His OPS vs. righties went up by only about 40 points from 2007-08 to 2009. If you plugged his 07-08 stats vs. righties into his 09 stats, his overall OPS would have changed by about 30 points or so, nothing earth-shattering.
by taco pal on Nov 9, 2009 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If all of their trade values are equal to their real values, then why trade at all? If you trade Ibanez for someone exactly like Ibanez, what is gained? Unless you upgrade a different position with a player equivalent to Ibanez and rely on some combo of Mayberry/Francisco/Taylor to play LF next year.
by Cormican on Nov 10, 2009 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If trade values are equal to real values, a trade can still have value if the players being replaced aren’t equal. Just to put (arbitrary) numbers on it, let’s say Feliz has a value of 40, Ibanez has a value of 60, and Francisco has a value of 50. Feliz/Ibanez has a total value of 100. Francisco/3B equal to Ibanez has a value of 110. Even though there’s no net increase in value of the players you have (Feliz/Ibanez/Francisco and Feliz/Mystery 3B/Francisco are both worth a total of 150), the value of the players on the field has increased.
In my opinion, though, the first word of this post is the most important – if.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
by The Dark on Nov 10, 2009 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
True. Obviously, if some GM called Ruben up and offered someone like, say, Felix Hernandez or Stephen Strasburg for Jayson Werth, then you’d make that deal instead. But market efficiency would be the baseline assumption until we actually know of an above-market offer.
by taco pal on Nov 10, 2009 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think they could get a better 3B from the available FAs than from a trade though. We’re bound to have an injury in the OF at some point, so I have little doubt Taylor will be starting by year’s end. Ibanez might be better traded for bench depth and a bullpen upgrade.
by Cormican on Nov 10, 2009 2:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough. I’m not saying it has to be a 3B. That’s just the most obvious area of need.
by taco pal on Nov 10, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I really think they’re going to have a hard time moving ibanez without paying some of that salary, especially in a market that is forecast as mostly bleak.
I will fully admit I was in the camp of “signing Ibanez for more money than Burrell = ludicrously stupid”.
As it turned out, Ibanez waaaaay outperformed Burrell this year, and early returns have it as an excellent move. The problem is, now he’s a year older, getting ready to undergo (or already underwent) surgery, and still has the same big contract, making him hard to move despite his (mostly ) good past season.
I don’t think you can unload him and get an upgrade, regardless of what position you’re looking to move him for. LF and 1B are the two positions on the field where you hide your good bat that doesn’t field all that well. Who is going to want a 37 yo OFer with a big contract coming off surgery after a year where he went MVP for half the year, debacle at plate for a 3rd of a year, and ‘normal’ the rest of the year?
I think he’s gotta stay because you can’t get a reasonable ROI for him (also…does he have a no-trade clause?)
by Bilzo on Nov 10, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know how many times I have to keep explaining this.
Preliminarily, he doesn’t have the “same big contract” as last year because he just played one year of the contract. It’s now only a two-year contract instead of a three-year contract.
More to the point: Do you think Ibanez would be impossible to give away? I’ll tell you right now that he isn’t. Another corner outfielder whose offensive stats for three years running have been inferior to Ibanez’s (Bobby Abreu) just got a contract very similar to Ibanez’s.
As long as you can at least give him away, then a fair trade is possible by definition. If Ibanez’s trade value is really so low that you can’t get anything back for him (dubious), that means that his value to us is also extremely low, and thus we lose nothing by giving him up.
It’s common for trade market value and actual value not to be in perfect sync, but they do track one another at least to a reasonable degree. Either Ibanez is worth something for both us and the trade market, or he’s worth nothing for both us and the trade market. But it isn’t going to be only one or the other.
by taco pal on Nov 10, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Join the community and dive in!
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
