Phillies Breakfast Links, November 6, 2009: Aloha, Phillies!
by WholeCamels on Nov 6, 2009 8:04 AM EST
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PrintI'm taking the Breakfast Links back to couple-times-a-week status for now, although that might change during the Winter Meetings and whatnot. Thanks to Wet Luzinski for handling probably the toughest day so far (I assure you I wasn't doing anything fun that morning). And thanks to everyone else for reading. We'll be here all offseason.
Phillies may try to sign Cliff Lee to extension this off-season
The article discusses Sabathia money... I don't know if it'll be that much, but it'll be a lot. And they'll either have to cut spending in other areas (bye Werth?) or increase payroll quite a bit.
10 questions facing the Phillies
I love Pedro Martinez, but I don't think he has a place on this team going forward. Thanks for everything.
Frank: Next year, Phillies could use help from ace, closer
Cole Hamels will be fine. Trust me. And even if he's not, that ring in 2008? His.
5 questions for the Phillies to ponder
Pedro Feliz has to go. Sorry, buddy.
Myers status with Phillies enters flux
It's a tough call. If he wants to come back on a one-year low value "make good" deal, I'm all for it.
Crowd greets players at 30th Street Station
Cool.
Top 10 Phillies Moments Of 2009
Discuss.
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The phillies and werth agreed to an extension before the season started I believe didn’t they? Or are you suggesting that they might have to trade him.
If the phils need to find ways to save money, sending brett myers on his merry merry way sounds like a good way to do it – I mean – at this point he’s just a reliever right? Those guys are supposedly fungible and variable year over year, so why bother keeping Myers.
No offense to Cole Hamels, but he stopped being the Ace of the phillies shortly after Cliff Lee arrived
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 9:42 AM EST reply actions
A solid extension I’m fine with – no need to over extend in this econonmy for a guy with a spotty injury history who just started ripping RH hitting and has other concerns…that’s a deal that looks real good right now
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
10 Questions
Bilzo’s Answers:
Q1)Is it a good idea to pursue a contract extension w/ Lee?
A1) Sure. It’s always a good time. No harm in pursuing.
Q2) Can Pedro last a full season?
A2) Doubtful. Thanks for the memories. It was fun. We hope we helped you land another job in another city this year.
Q3) Fifth Starter?
A3) I say Kendrick enters as the favorite.
Q4) Brett Myers?
A4) Agree with article. Keep him on the cheap, pass if he wants tons of cash. Poking Cole with a toothpick didn’t help his cause.
Q5) Scott Eyre?
A5) He was pretty good. If he wants to stay, keep him. It’s hard to find lefty relievers that are decent. I think he’s good enough.
Q6) CHoP
A6) He probably has to go. He’s overpriced as a MRP. If he wants to stay on in that role, that’s fine, but he won’t.
Q7) Stairs
A7) Dude needs to retire.
Q8) Servicable replacement MI (Bruntlett Upgrade)
A8) No Brainer. I don’t know who you get, but Joe AAA Guy that the Mets plugged in was probably better than Beardo.
Q9) Does Pedro’s glove make up for his bat.
A9) I say “yes”. With the mashers the Phils have, you should be able to survive his bat. Most clubs have one if not two black holes in their lineup, usually from C/SS/2B.
The Phils have the benefit of having productive offense from those spots and can absorb Feliz’s ineptness. Would be nice if they could turn him into a ‘productive out’ kinda guy, instead of Foul outs, GIDPs, and Ks though.
Q10) What about Bako, Cairo, Tyler Walker?
A10) I say keep Walker, ditch the other two.
As much as I hate Feliz’s bat, upgrading the position may be impractical. Signing or trading for a veteran hitter at the position could give the Phillies major payroll issues a few years down the road when Utley, Howard, etc. need re-ups. It may be best to live with Feliz’s offensive ineptitude. I think the priority needs to be bench depth (though that may take care of itself if Taylor or Brown are ready late in the season). I also think they need one more quality starter. Not necessarily a Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay, but someone more reliable than Moyer (sorry) or Kendrick.
The Dark's 10 Answers
1. Is it a good idea to pursue a contract extension with Cliff Lee?
Yes. Duh.
2. Can Pedro Martinez pitch effectively for an entire season?
At a 4/5 level? Almost certainly. I’m not sure he’ll be worth a full year contract, though
3. Who will be the fifth starter?
Kendrick until further notice
4. What to do about Brett Myers?
Let him walk if he expects a good amount of money and a long contract. If he’s willing to go cheap and short to prove he’s healthy before hunting for a big conract, he’s #5
5. Can Scott Eyre remain healthy and effective for one more season?
I think he can remain mostly healthy and effective. His pitching style doesn’t require blazing speed
6. Should the Phils retain Chan Ho Park? Can they?
Can? Yes. Should? I don’t think so. He wants to start, even though he’s not a great starter.
7. Is Matt Stairs worth one more season?
I don’t think so. He’s at the age where you can’t expect a sudden rebound.
8. Can they lure a super utility player to provide rest for Utley and Rollins?
It’s a distinct possibility. I do like the possibility of pulling over Adam Heether, since he’s played every infield position in AAA ball, as well as left field.
9. Does Pedro Feliz’s defense and affordability make up for his offense?
For now, just barely. His arm is what makes him valuable to me, since there are other third baseman with about equal mobility, but without the arm strength to make the throws he makes. That’s definitely the slot we need to look at upgrading.
10. What about the veterans who helped – Cairo, Bako, and Walker?
If we can’t lure a new utility infielder, I’d say hold on to Cairo – he’s nothing special, but he’s better than Beardo. Bako I’d let walk. Walker depends on what he wants. If his demands are too high, let him walk. If he’s willing to stay cheap, sign him.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
If not Pedro (Feliz), then who?
The only other legit 3B out there is possibly Chone Figgins. Would be nice if he bumped Jimmy from the leadoff spot, but something tells me he might be an Angle next year.
Hmm…adrian beltre waves hello and says i play 3rd base too
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
Hopefully, Hewitt develops into something (long, long way to go), we need a bridge to get us to that point. I’d be fine with Juan Uribe, who can play 2nd. Also Polanco is is an FA, and I recall he can play 3rd.
The phillies didn’t think he could play 3rd though
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
I think PF said a while back that they were already starting to use Hewitt in the outfield, but I could be misremembering that.
Hewitt is just a lottery ticket anyway, regardless of where he plays. We should act as if he isn’t ever going to contribute and then be pleasantly surprised if he works out.
We don’t need to have minor league coverage of every single position. The important thing is to have talent in the aggregate. If there are one or two holes, they can be patched through other means.
Problem is, most of the redundancies aren’t good trade bait, yet. The Phillies have a truck load of interesting OF prospects, but Brown and Taylor are really the only 2 showing anything yet. Everyone else is really toolsy with major issues.
Thats just the way the Phillies draft. Take the big time athletes and teach em baseball. Thinking about it now, its no wonder we dont have good infield prospects. I mean, most SS, 3B and 2B are not the hulking linebacker type that this organization loves on draft day.
by philiafan14364 on Nov 6, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
If that were possible, we would have traded Taylor for an infield prospect already
by philiafan14364 on Nov 6, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
Bobby Abreu – 2 more years with the angels
STIL cheaper over those 3 years than Raul Ibanez
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 11:01 AM EST reply actions
Aren’t we glad that Amaro jumped the market last year to lock up Ibanez before anyone else could?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
mitigation only in that he didn’t sign Sheffield instead.
by Wet Luzinski on Nov 6, 2009 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
Answers
1. Cliff Lee: Do it NOW. His price will only go up once the season starts. Remember the Billy Wagner fiasco?
2. Pedro Martinez: We don’t need 2 “old goats” on the staff. Moyer is under contract. If he retires (please, please), we should look to resign Pedro. If Moyer stays, then bye-bye.
3. Fifth Starter: Moyer, unless Drabek or Kendrick force their way onto the rotation in Spring training. Pedro if Moyer retires and we can sign him.
4. Myers. I may be in the minority, but I’d sure like to keep him. He’s only 29. I’d like to see him in the BP again. But it’s likely another team will simply overpay for him. Thanks for the memories.
5. Eyre: No brainer to keep him.
6. Chan Ho: How much will he cost? My guess is he leaves for more $$ or a starting gig.
7. Stairs: Umm, no thanks. Just gotta be someone else out there. I’d rather see Michael Taylor take his spot, or better, yet let him compete with Raul for LF in Spring training. Loser can sit the pine for pinch hits.
8. Can they sign a super utility player?: If they can’t after back to back WS appearances, then something is wrong. But can’t Cairo fill this role?
9. Pedro Feliz. Agree with Bilzo. Keep him for his glove. Yeah, he can’t hit, but as Bill Parcells once said “you can’t have steak at every position.”
10. Keep Bako & Walker.
I disagree re: Taylor and Ibanez. I think it would be terrible for Taylor’s development to ride the pine. If he isn’t ready, send him to AAA to develop and let Francisco and Mayberry warm the bench instead. Also, Ibanez would be an expensive 4th outfielder. I think they’d try to trade him before paying that much for a pinch hitter.
I think they’d try to trade him before paying that much for a pinch hitter.
To trade him you have to find someone thinking he’s worth 10 mil per year for the next 2 or to pay quite a bit of his salary
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
What if Taylor is ready. Then what? I guess I’m thinking this is analagous to the Thome/Howard situation a few years back when Ryan couldn’t come up become of Thome. They eventually traded Thome and we had to eat salary, but Ryan got to play. As jemagee notes, I can’t think anyone would trade for Raul, not at his age or salary. He’s a mediocre left fielder, and it was just painful watching him contort into a pretzel when he batted in the postseason.
by Boundforbeach on Nov 6, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
But what about trading Victorino when his value is probably at his peak moving Werth to center and trying Taylor in right?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
Creative. I guess we would have to know that Taylor is ready for prime time. That power would be awesome. But we lose some range in CF and speed on the bases, and Bill Conlin would have a fit if “the best centerfielder in Phillies history” is gone.
by Boundforbeach on Nov 6, 2009 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
If it would give him apoplexy, or make him too depressed to write, I think that would add to the motivation.
I wonder how Conlin felt about Aaron Rowand around the time he broke his nose, I bet he though that was pretty awesome.
What if somehow they trade victorino, add figgins at 3rd and lopes works his SB magic to make him an efficient volume stealer – sure you lose some range in CF but you’ve got that base staeling back (and a better lead off hitter)
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
Career OBP 363
Jimmy Rollins 329
Step up
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah – but who WANTS him?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
That’s what Ruben is paid to do – make calls and ask. If that’s supposed to be a rhetorical question, it isn’t a very sensible one. I don’t see why Ibanez would be some sort of untradeable commodity. Even though he’s 37, he’s still productive and his contract is large but not crazy. This isn’t Vernon Wells we’re talking about. Sure, you’ll get less for him than you would for Werth or Victorino. But you’ll also get to lose the less valuable player as well.
For instance, if we’re willing to accept a similar player (short term, older, well paid) at a different position where we have a need instead of a surplus, that’s a trade that can potentially be made.
Raul Ibanez – 3 years 30 million
Bobby Abreu (over all) 3 years 20 million
Ibanez may be tradeable but not for much – it’s a bad contract in this economy for his bat and for his age…Abreu is the better player, the better performer, and over 3 years he’s going to cost the angels only 67% of Ibanez cost.
Ibanez has a BAD contract as far as i’m concerned and the incetivization required to get rid of him probably makes it not worth it.
It IS a sensible question to ask who you feel needs a 35+ left handed bat at 10 million per year for the next 2 years who sucks in the field when other cheaper options appear to be often available. You may not think it’s sensible – but if you have no idea who might take the contract – just say so…
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
You may not think it’s sensible – but if you have no idea who might take the contract – just say so…
Yeah, nice rhetorical trick. You have no idea who would rule out taking his contract too, so it’s a lame point.
Your facts are extremely misleading. What Ibanez and Abreu earned in 2009 is irrelevant to an analysis of current trade value. Abreu’s new deal is for 2 years, $19 million. That is his market value. Ibanez, who now has 2 years and about $22 million left on his deal, is in the same ballpark. He basically has a current market-rate deal, especially when you consider that Abreu is NOT “the better player, the better performer,” NOR is he going to cost the Angels significantly less than Ibanez over the only time periods that matter – the present and future. Abreu may have had the better career, but Ibanez has now posted equal or better offensive numbers for three years running, and both are bad fielders.
In any event, all of this is irrelevant to the extent that it only proves that Ibanez’s trade value is lowered by his contract. Of course it is – that’s why you have to be willing to take a lesser return in exchange for him. But that is no less beneficial to your team, because Ibanez’s trade value to other teams would only be lower if his actual value to our team were also lower. Ibanez’s contract status is only relevant to this discussion if it’s so crazy that it makes him untradeable, and it simply isn’t anywhere close to that level as a comparison to Abreu proves.
How is OPS+ adjusted for competition faced / parks played in?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
“where *lgOBP is the park adjusted OBP of the league and *lgSLG is the park adjusted SLG of the league”
When referring to league – is that national vs american or ‘mlb’ adjustment? wondering
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
The Mets. For David Wright.
/Yankeez fan’d/
by Wet Luzinski on Nov 6, 2009 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
The Yankees. To replace Damon
/Red Sox fan’d/
by Wet Luzinski on Nov 6, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
It would probably require a three-way trade to make it work. Just in terms of value for value, I’d say third basemen who are roughly equivalent to Ibanez are guys like Lowell, Rolen, and Blake.
I’d honestly take the tandem of Ibanez and Feliz over any of those three and whatever we’re shoving in LF to replace Raul.
I think it be very hard to upgrade 3B using Ibanez as a trading chip
I’ve seen nothing of Casey Blake (and maybe that’s because he just sucks against the Phils in the NLCS) that impresses me. I’d be worried about Rolen being durable. Can’t help the team on the DL. Same thing with Lowell, but not to the same extent.
Blake is a decent player. 10 bad games do not define a career. And Feliz wasn’t exactly impressive in the NLCS either.
Ibanez and Feliz have each spent extended time on the DL themselves over the last two years.
But that also means to me, that in addition to Ibanez’s age, his inconsistency and durability would also be detractors from his trade value to others (and that massive contract).
Remember the Billy Wagner fiasco
You mean the one where they weren’t going to extend him anyway but they refused to trade him at the deadline?
How is that connected to Cliff Lee?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 11:07 AM EST reply actions
if memory serves correct (and I’m getting older) I thought Billy wanted around $27million mid season to re-sign, but then took far, far more than that with the Mets after the season. Maybe we didn’t really want to keep him, but I’m just sayin Lee’s price tag will go up…
by Boundforbeach on Nov 6, 2009 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
I never got the impression the phils really intended to keep him…maybe that’s just me
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
Funny, i think he was the most ‘philly’ closer since mitch williams
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
and how has that worked out for the Mets, exactly?
by Wet Luzinski on Nov 6, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
Um….what?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry, Wagner I mean. I don’t see it analagous. The deal he signed with the Mets was big, but then the injury issue (unfortunate for them) necessitated the F-Rod deal. So in essence they had to throw good money after bad to fill the need. It’s just a cautionary note to put together a Sabathia-like deal for Lee. Despite the recent success I think the Silent Partners are still more burned by bad memories of long-term FA dealz gone bad.
OTOH, Phils do have an advantage now for FAs in that they are legit title contenders, so that can help if we’re not price-is-righted by the others (Yankees and Red Sox).
by Wet Luzinski on Nov 6, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
cautionary note NOT to put together a Sabathia-like deal.
fix’d
by Wet Luzinski on Nov 6, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
Neither did I – just wondering how the reply ended up with me :)
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
Wagner purportedly told the Phillies he would take 20+ million dollars for 3 years mid season in 2005. We politely declined. He then got 43 mil 4 year contract with the Mets a few months later. Did it work out for them long term? No. But the fact remains that if we want to sign Lee, we could almostly certainly get a better deal in the short term. That’s all. Everyone wants to re-sign Lee. The only issue is what is or is not “reasonable.” If he wants Sabathia money, then we’ll likely never do it.
by Boundforbeach on Nov 6, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
Well not everyone wanted to re-sign Wagner, and Wagner isn’t a starter, your analogy just made no sense…no matter how much you explain it to me it still doesn’t seem to work out.
If Lee want’s sabathia money his agent is an idiot – Lee has two strong years and he’s already in his early 30s right? Sabathia had more of a ‘career’ resume than Lee did when he got his contract.
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
1. Cliff Lee to a reasonable extension – no offense to him but it’s only 2 (albeit great) seasons.
2. Pedro should be signed but told he won’t pitch until August, and the phillies can’t afford that, he’s a solid pitcher for short periods of time but he’s old and won’t last a season
3. Moyer is done in my opinion ass should retire, fifth starter, better sign someone and not depend on kendrick or drabek to pitch well enough in spring training
4. Myers – who cares
5. Eyre – i suppose if his elbow thing clears up
6. If he accepts that he’s a solid non closer reliever type and costs only a couple million, no biggy
7. Stairs – retire already – your ‘home run’ largesse is over
8. Someone better than bruntlett – sure he turned a triple play but come on
9. They shoot horses don’t they?
10. Shoot bako too please
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 11:10 AM EST reply actions
Wet Luzinski's First Pass at the Hot Stove
Overall, losing the WS and still having a decent team in place will enable Amaro to let go of needed pieces of organizational sentimentality, and address the holes in a more clear-eyed way.
Q1)Is it a good idea to pursue a contract extension w/ Lee?
A1) Yes. Halladay is out there too, right? I’d be more concerned with the years than the money.
Q2) Can Pedro last a full season?
A2) No. Still, he’s relatively cheap and entertaining. I still don’t think it’s insulting or inappropriate to either him or Moyer to settle on the concept of the alternating 5th starter on 10 days’ rest and be part of a legit playoff contender. You want to start for the Pirates instead, be my guest.
Q3) Fifth Starter?
A3) Kendrick on a short leash. As I’m a Weaver disciple, let the battle begin in ST. If Drabek earns it, give it to him.
Q4) Brett Myers?
A4) Hate hate hate Meathead’s makeup. Always have. And I think he really needs to go to a park like Petco or DC that caters to his FB tendencies. But in the absence of another back-end bullpenner, I keep him. And I force him to check in in the offseason for bi-weekly conditioning checkups.
Q5) Scott Eyre?
A5) No reason not to keep him around. He earned that respect. Kind of up to him. The real question behind the question is what the hell happens with Romero.
Q6) CHoP
A6) If he wakes up to the idea that his success and longevity are as a back-end bullpenner, and we cease and desist with the starting nonsense, ok, maybe. But the price isn’t right as Bilzo noted.
Q7) Stairs
A7) I didn’t like Martino’s answer at all. I’ll grant he got an adequate number of walks, but dayum, you can’t tell me that the OPS was what you wanted. His job was to hit, period, and he didn’t. Bye.
Q8) Servicable replacement MI (Bruntlett Upgrade)
A8) I would really pay extra for this. The infielders are all around 30. A weeks-long trip to the DL is likelier as the nucleus ages and Utley will continue to get HBP. We need competence who could truly play 2 games/week routinely and don’t have it. A guy like DeRosa would make sense, and I see the ideal candidate as being a routinely used part-timer 2b/3b/ss/1b if possible.
Q9) Does Pedro’s glove make up for his bat.
A9) Most people are missing what I suspect: the guy plum wore out, and forget about his hot start. I blame this as much on the inability of Dobbs to do much of anything this year as on him, or Amaro to make a move internally or externally to adjust. He needs a day off a week.
Q10) What about Bako, Cairo, Tyler Walker?
A10) Agree with Bilzo. Keep Walker, ditch the other two as part of the Bench Total Makeover.
“Q2) Can Pedro last a full season?
A2) No. Still, he’s relatively cheap and entertaining. I still don’t think it’s insulting or inappropriate to either him or Moyer to settle on the concept of the alternating 5th starter on 10 days’ rest and be part of a legit playoff contender. You want to start for the Pirates instead, be my guest. "
That’s pretty creative thinking, and I like it. I highly doubt either of them would be agreeable to it, and it’s also the equivalent of roster spot redundancy, but I really think that would be effective.
Also like the suspicion that Pedro wore down. He was having a VERY good year until about August. I think his Avg was up to .293 at one point (maybe higher?). Having to play EVERY day might have taken it’s toll on him.
Been poking around...
looking for the team’s contract information for next year. I found this spreadsheet: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tSSu2Qy8G9pTSsguHAbeu-A&output=html
Not sure it’s completely accurate. It says we are already committed to 108 million for 2010, and this does not include the monies needed for Blanton or Shane. It also lists Feliz’ salary at 500k for next year, but I think that’s the payoff if we don’t exercise the option. Anyone know of a good site for this type of info?
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
It’s the best I’ve ever found. And yes, 500K is Feliz’s buyout. Full contract for the year is 5M (I think).
Since he’s a potential free agent mlb trade rumors has him on the list and does list the full year deal as 5 million – what neither tsite lists is the deadline for the phillies to decide
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
Who are the top 5/7 short stop prospects in baseball and do any of their parent clubs needs a gritty base stealing centerfielder who might be more over rated now than any time in his career/
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 11:58 AM EST reply actions
I’m not at all convinced either that Victorino’s market value is inflated or that he is inevitably going to start declining. I’m not saying that’s impossible, but I think it’s no less likely that he maintains his current performance for a couple more years. He’s been fairly consistent for a while now; his improvements have been steady and incremental, and he still has a couple more years left in his prime.
What’s more important though…keeping Victorino or finding a Shortstop prospect who can take over in a couple of years since the phils have no one in the organization right now (I don’t think) who would even be a league average short stop.
With Taylor they have an OF surplus and a big hole at 3rd and (in my opinion) one at short stop that in 2 years time (max) becomes a desperate need
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not necessarily ruling out a deal. There’s no one I wouldn’t trade if the offer I got was awesome enough. I’m just saying that if you assess Victorino’s trade value based on an assumption that he’s peaked or overrated, you might assess it incorrectly which might cause you to demand too little in return because that assumption may or may not be accurate.
I have no reason to believe that your assessment of Shane Victorino is any more valid than mine.
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t know what the reasons are for your assessment because you’ve never explained them, so I can neither confirm nor deny your statement.
I think Victorino still has a couple more good years in him. His power could continue to improve.
This may not be ultra pertinent, but I’d really hate to play against him. Can you imagine him in a Mets or Braves or Fish uni? He’d be like the Japanese chasing down “dolphin and whale” in that southpark episode when he played against us. Please no.
Well maybe not just shane but wouldn’t shane be a pretty good piece? I don’t even know who the top 5 ss prospects are or what organizations they are in – but I do know that the phils don’t have one and I have a sinking feeling they need one sooner than later
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
Top 5 SS Prospects
Just a guess:
Elvis Andrus, Rangers (already in Majors)
Wilmer Flores, Mets (17 and a huge project)
Gordon Beckham, White Sox (In majors and pretty much untouchable)
Tim Beckham, Rays (untouchable)
Carlos Triunfel, Mariners (Lost year to injury, may be gettable, but broken leg would be risky)
Myers
Offer him arbitration. Tell him he isn’t guaranteed a spot in the rotation. If he takes it, that’s fine – even an inflated contract won’t kill us for one year, and he might do well. If he doesn’t take it, that’s fine too – we’ll get a pick.
Is he a type A or B?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t know. Have they announced that yet? I would have to guess B though. He pitched so little this year that if he was an A beforehand, it would have dropped him out of that level.
the MLB Trade rumors had a ‘projection’ of who would be A/B i don’t remember if I saw anything for myers.
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
I just checked, don’t know how accurate they ever are or if there are more accurate locations, but MLB Trade rumors doesn’t list Myers as even a Type B
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
That’s great, thanks for sharing
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
sure. But you also have to sleep with him.
by Wet Luzinski on Nov 6, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
Hamels trade
On sportscenter last night, Karl Ravech and someone else either gammons or buster olney i think had a clip about the phillies and yankees off season moves/issues. One was the thought of trading hamels in a package for roy halladay. Idk how accurate that is and philly actually doing it but it was interesting.
Well it’s not interesting and there’s a difference between a rumor and olney and gammons just making crap up and then people misinterpreting it as an actual discussion going on.
Trading Cole Hamels now would be as dumb as advocating the sixers trade elton brand when he’s at the nadir of his career trade value.
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
Hamels would not be traded unless something ridiculous came along (straight up for Lincecum? …well minus the dime bag).
No way they shop him. They might listen to offers, but they’re not going to solicit them.
I think the dime bag makes Lincecum more ‘phillie’ than one might think
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
Possible source of ESPN ‘rumor’ comment?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I found it trying to find the deadline for the phils to decide on Pedro’s option…
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
trade a young pitcher who’s shown occassional dominance for an awesome veteran who’s probably getting ready to start his decline.
If A-Rod dumping his wife for Madonna was the equivalent of trading in a new shiny ferrari for a ‘74 BMW, this would be like trading in a 2006 Mercedes that’s been in a minor fender bender for a 1992 Porsche.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/discussion-pedro-feliz.html
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Nov 6, 2009 1:19 PM EST reply actions
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