Yes, yes, yes (not sure I’m “informed,” but their top 7 was exactly what mine would have been), and no. Bastardo will be a decent major leaguer, either as a back of the rotation starter or a good lefty specialist. He’s an okay #9.

In addition to these ten guys, they have a lot of “lottery ticket” type athletic outfielders (Hewitt, Collier, James, Dugan, Hudson, Castro) one or two of whom could amount to something, and a ton of “inventory” arms in the high minors (Savery, Carpenter, Stutes, Worley, Flande, Cisco, Naylor, Monasterios) who could serve as decent MLB fill-ins or depth for trades. It’s a good system.

So Taylor is the one everyone wants to see next year but Brown currently higher than Taylor, is that purely an ‘upside’ kind of thing and Brown is farther away.

Yes.

should I be concerned that bastardo is at 9?

No.

You’re right, Brown over Taylor is an upside thing. Brown has better physical tools — though that’s hardly a knock on Taylor — and despite being nearly 2 years younger, he’s only 1 level behind. Plus, Brown’s defensive upside is as a Gold Glove caliber right fielder, while Taylor’s is as an above average left fielder.

As for BA’s listing… though still tinkering, I’ve currently got the same top six, and in that order. Bastardo’s in my top ten as well, but I wouldn’t take that as an indictment of the system — you want to balance ceiling and floor in assessing prospects, and I think Bastardo is an odds on bet to be a solid bullpen lefty for a while. No shame in ranking him ahead of some of the higher upside but bigger risk guys, including Singleton, Colvin, Shreve, etc.

I’d love to know the answer to this one myself.

My guess is that they realize that we have a gaping organizational hole at third base (let’s call it “The Rolen Curse”) and figure either that Valle will get moved there, or be dealt for someone who could provide an answer…

I think that projected lineup has to be taken with a grain of salt. I think they just mess around when they do those.

I have no idea if the Phillies actually have any thoughts about moving Valle to 3B, but my hunch is that since there’s no one else to slot in at that position, and since there are two catchers on the top ten list, BA just thought they might as well pencil the second catcher in there.

Valle’s scouting report mentioned that he and d’Arnaud were both fielding grounders at third “as the Phillies look ahead.” I wouldn’t read too much into that; I mean, it’s asinine to move a guy off catcher unless he proves that he can’t cut it there defensively. The organization is just keeping its options open in the event that both d’Arnaud and Valle turn out to be stud hitters, and they can’t plug the gaping hole at the hot corner.

But it’s important to remember that the BA people stress that the future lineups are just rampant speculation on their part.

They always put people with major league experience on these lists. They use ROY eligibility as their own eligibility cutoff.

A lot of it’s a personal preference thing, as I said above. You’d be perfectly justified in putting together a list that pushes Bastardo way down, and elevates guys like Collier, Hewitt, Hudson, Colvin, Pettibone, and Shreve. You’re just saying, “I value high upside guys more than low floor guys,” and that’s a perfectly acceptable position. But that’s not how BA does it, and that’s not how most prospect lists do it, and that’s what you have to understand when approaching these lists.

Last year’s BA rankings had a back of the rotation type guy as the Phillies #9 too. Some guy by the name of Happ. He was ranked ahead of players such as Jason Knapp (who would easily be top 10 if he wasn’t the key piece of the Lee trade), Valle, Gose, and others who have much more upside than Happ. Just because Bastardo is listed in the top 10 does not mean that there aren’t people behind him that won’t be better. BA has to balance the lottery/high ceiling guys with the guys who are going to be sure major leaguers.

He’s technically still a prospect since he hasn’t thrown 50 major league innings, but he isn’t considered a classic “prospect” by some because of all of his injuries. He’ll definitely make my top 15, and I think he’s a good bet to end 2010 in the Phillies bullpen.