What To Do At Third Base?
by Governator on Nov 9, 2009 11:48 PM EST
41 comments
Now that a decision has been made to cut Pete Happy loose, at least for the time being, the major question of this offseason has become what Amaro will do to fill the hole at the hot corner.
Basically, it boils down to this: Get an upper-level free agent to play everyday, get a platoon bat to go with Greg Dobbs, or trade prospects for an Alex Gordon type or a true upper-tier third baseman.
Thoughts after the jump.
Free agent possibilities:
Mark DeRosa (Type B, age 34) - .250/.319/.433 for CLE/STL in 2009. OPS+ of 100. Down year. Generally OPSed around .800 as a starter prior to this year. Wrist surgery in late October. Attended UPenn. Most likely solution; has been linked to Phillies before.
Chone Figgins (Type A, age 31) - .298/.395/.393 for ANA in 2009. OPS+ of 108 with 42 SB/17 CS. top free agent third baseman. viewed as excellent defender. Hasn't been much noise that the Phils have interest here. Would be a true top of the order hitter, allowing either Rollins or Victorino to move to the seven-hole.
Adrian Beltre (no compensation, age 30) - .265/.304/.379 for SEA in 2009. career avg OPS+ of 105. Gold Glove in AL in 07 and 08. consistent 25-HR power throughout career. only 477 ABs this year due to injuries. would come cheaper than Figgins and be an upgrade over Feliz if healthy. not as patient a hitter as DeRosa or Figgins.
Joe Crede and Troy Glaus have both been mentioned, but Crede posted a miserable OPS+ of 83 last year and Glaus was hurt the whole year.
If healthy, Glaus could be the best option, with a career triple slash line of .255/.359/.497 for a career OPS+ of 121. Age is a concern as well, as next year will be his age 33 season.
Trade possibilities:
Alex Gordon (age 25, KC) - triple slash of .232/.324/.378 in 189 PAs last year. could be a classic buy-low option. Bill James is bullish on his 2010 potential, forecasting an .822 OPS. if they can acquire him for Michael Taylor it could make sense to do a deal. Lefty batter with platoon splits is probably not a good fit for the Phillies lineup.
Scott Rolen? Michael Young (too pricey)?
Within:
The Phillies have no one in their minor league system with the potential to play third base at the major league level right now. It appeared Jason Donald might be that guy, but he is obviously now the property of the Cleveland Indians. Greg Dobbs is fit to bat against righthanders, but is worthless against lefties and isn't up to par with the glove.
My opinion:
Troy Glaus is the best option out there if healthy and interested in coming to Philadelphia. His powerful righty bat could slot into the middle of the order nicely. Imagine a three-through-seven of Utley, Werth, Howard, Glaus and Ibanez. Pretty nice, right? However, he made $12 million in 2009 and 2008, so he'll be more expensive than Feliz. The lost season could discount his value, but how much depends to be seen. Unfortunately, there haven't yet been any rumors linking him to the Phils. He also carries the advantage of requiring no compensation picks.
DeRosa is the most realistic and likely possibility. He provides a nice blend of affordability, power, and defense. I would not be upset if the Phils went after him.
Figgins is the premium guy out there, for obvious reasons. However, I don't see the Phils paying his price.
Beltre would be an upgrade as well. He'll give you better defense and the familiar lack of walks and patience. He is probably going to come cheaper than Glaus, and definitely cheaper than Figgins.
I expect DeRosa as target numero uno. If Rube doesn't get his man, I'd look for the Phils to step back and see how the market plays out before committing to anyone.
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I'd love Gordon
guys don’t just suddenly forget to bat if they’ve been good for so long. He’s young, his defense is okay, and I think he has by far the most potential out of that group. He could very well still be a superstar in the making, and CBP might be just what the doctor ordered.
I’d be ecstatic if we traded for him. Wouldn’t be the first time we’ve taken a former uberspect thought to be done and helped him reach stardom (what up Werth)
by Alon on Nov 10, 2009 1:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
taylor
taylor aint going anywhere . i want beltre bad tho
An inconsistent coach is far worse than an inconsistent quarterback.(Route 36)
by jack is better than asante on Nov 10, 2009 6:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Never mentioned Taylor, so that's a non-sequiter
i like Taylor a lot too, but I think the organization prefers Dominic Brown. Hopefully Taylor + Brown + Werth make a long-term outfield, although I think Victorino is an excellent CF option. Brown + Victorino + Werth is great too, which leaves Taylor as possible trade-bait (to respond to your response)
by Alon on Nov 11, 2009 11:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What happens when he comes here and still blows? I WILL NOT watch Bruntlett play everday at third…
by philiafan14364 on Nov 10, 2009 6:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ditto
If Gordon is healthy and available, I would trade for him in a New York minute. The system lacks 3B prospects. Because of the logjam in the outfield, I would trade Taylor to make the deal happen. Taylor is major-league ready, but may not get much playing time with the Phils unless there is an injury.
by Derekcarstairs on Nov 23, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I love Beltre if the price is right. He’s arguably the best fielding 3B in baseball and his offense isn’t quite as bad as his numbers lead to believe. His road OPSes from 2006 through 2008 (taking away an injury plagued 2009) were .805, .858, .862. His career road splits (.287/.338/.488 compared to .253/.311/.416 at home) are actually pretty good. To put that in perspective, DeRosa’s career OPS is .767 with only two seasons above .800. Troy Glaus’ career OPS is .856 and is an inferior defender. It’d be nice to see what Beltre could do in a non-pitcher’s park. Having a #7 hitter with an .800 OPS would be outstanding.
by yosoysean on Nov 10, 2009 6:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
I want Beltre. Would be ecstatic if we got him.
"It was almost like if Harry didn't call it, it wasn't real." - Jayson Stark
by Chris Haines on Nov 10, 2009 9:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Me too, only problem is I cringe every time I hear his name.
by philiafan14364 on Nov 10, 2009 6:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
inferior defender, yeah
but isn’t troy glaus still pretty exceptional as a 3b? i think the only real detraction is his complete inability to stay healthy.
by Alon on Nov 11, 2009 11:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If you trust UZR as a defensive metric, Glaus has posted a positive UZR twice in his career (0.7 in 2007 and 4.5 in 2008). Compare that to Beltre who had a UZR in the double digits in all but two of his seasons.
According to Bill James’ +/- stats Glaus was a little better. He’s ranked 8th among 3B from 2006-2008 with 23 more outs recorded than the average 3B. That’s about 7.7 per season. Of course that pales in comparison to Beltre’s 63, 21/season.
Glaus is an average to above average fielding 3B. Beltre has been the best fielding 3B in baseball though and it isn’t even close between the two.
by yosoysean on Nov 12, 2009 6:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Glaus can't be trusted to stay healthy at this point.
The Cardinals were basically using him as a pinch hitter, and I don’t think there’s any way he can play the field every day. Sure, a healthy Glaus would be a great solution, but that’s like saying that a healthy Mark Prior would be a great pitcher.
by PhillyFriar on Nov 10, 2009 9:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed, but if you could get him for cheap… like an incentive based deal… Can you imagine if we had even 75% of prime Glaus plugged into our current lineup? The mind reels…
by taco pal on Nov 10, 2009 11:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Another candidate: Brandon Wood.
Apparently, if the Angels lose out on Figgins, they’re prepared to go after Beltre. I’m certainly interested in Beltre — for all the reasons yoyosean lists above — but I don’t want to get into a bidding war for his services.
If the Angels prepare a big offer for Beltre, that means they simply don’t see Wood as a major league player, and I can’t imagine it would cost an arm and a leg to acquire him at that point. The guy can pass as a shortstop, meaning he’s fine defensively at third base, and he’s a career .286/.354/.541 hitter across 7 minor league seasons. Strikeouts have been his only bugaboo, but he cut his K rate down to 20.7% in Triple-A this year, while still posting an impressive .264 ISO. He has least 2 years before he’s even eligible for arbitration, so he’d be cheap, and I think that working with Charlie and Milt would only benefit him as a hitter.
by PhillyFriar on Nov 10, 2009 10:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I thought I read somewhere that Woods D as a SS was subpar, but that he was good enough defensively at 3rd given his bat. What’s the backup plan? If the Halos are right and Wood isn’t an MLB player, we’d be stuck with a full season of Dobbs at 3rd. I’d rather go after an FA AND Woods. Not a top tier free agent, but someone like Uribe who can at least be passable for a year if Woods doesn’t pan out. And if Woods does pan out Uribe can play 3 positions.
by Cormican on Nov 11, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think this is reasonable in principle, but would prefer someone other than Uribe. I think he’s pretty bad.
by taco pal on Nov 11, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he’d be fine as a bench/platoon/utility guy, which I would hope he would be. If he needed to start, he could platoon with Dobbs, as a right handed bat. This option would probably be worse than just keeping Pete Happy around, but if Woods were to pan out, it could be a huge improvement. Basically, I view this as the swing for the fences option.
by Cormican on Nov 11, 2009 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That’s the beauty of targeting Wood as your 3B solution: he’ll make the major league minimum for 2 years, which gives you the financial flexibility to address other areas.
It sounds like the Giants want to re-sign Uribe, and they’ll certainly be able to offer him more at bats than we will, but someone of that ilk makes sense as a backup plan. I’ve thrown out the names of Craig Counsell and Jerry Hairston Jr. before, and I think they could be good fits. In the worst case scenario that Wood doesn’t pan out at all, Charlie should be able to cobble together some sort of platoon between Dobbs and a Counsell/Hairston type. But to be honest, I can’t imagine Wood being that bad as long as he’s given a fair shot.
by PhillyFriar on Nov 12, 2009 9:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
what kind of contract would figgins demand?
by Clyde Simmons on Nov 10, 2009 1:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
About 10 million per
Word right now is he’s asking for 5 years, $50 million
by Governator on Nov 10, 2009 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right. He’s 31 and this is likely his last large payday. The White Sox GM just announced they are not going to pursue him (“We don’t have that kind of money”). And I don’t think he would take less to play for us. And he’s a Type A free agent, which may cost us draft picks. He would be a great get, but it’s probably pie in the sky…
by Boundforbeach on Nov 10, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
figgens.....
hope he would like to play for us because we hve been in the world series for 2 yrs in a row. hope he will take less money to pay for us, but u’re rite probably not
eff you we winning anyway
by eagleswin on Nov 10, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
play not pay sorry
eff you we winning anyway
by eagleswin on Nov 10, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah – no matter how you spell it it’s not bloody likely…
by jemagee on Nov 11, 2009 9:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
figgens wont get a GREAT contract unless he signs with the yankees because they are the only team that are basically recession proof
he’ll probably get around 7-9 mil a year
eff you we winning anyway
by eagleswin on Nov 11, 2009 5:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and yet wrong again
there’s a team in Massachusetts that has boatloads of money and might need a 3rd baseman
by jemagee on Nov 11, 2009 9:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
5 years 50 mil seems a little high for a 31 year old. I would be willing to give him contract similar to Ibanez’s, but I don’t know if he would take that.
Could 3rd base be a similar market to last years corner OF?
No one thought the Ibanez contract was that ridiculous until guys like Dunn and Abreu signed, and Pat the bat played for almost nothing.
by Clyde Simmons on Nov 11, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What about signing ARod???????
Kate Hudson and Heidi Hamels would look cute together in there Phillies jerseys
To me the Eagles are like that girlfriend that pisses u off, then u hate her, but the next morning you wake up and remember that thing u love so much about her
by XxBleedGreen5xX on Nov 10, 2009 4:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
figgens
"The punt to DeSean Jackson. The punt. Short, Jackson takes it at the 32. Looks for running room, reverses the field. He's at the 40. 50, 45, 40, 35, 30, He's gonna go!
"McNabb in the shotgun again. McNabb takes the snap, fakes, he's back, he's looking, he is going deep for DeSean Jackson, who races, has it! TOUCHDOWN!!! DeSean Jackson!!
by xADx GoGreen4Ever on Nov 10, 2009 7:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Just had a brilliant idea
Put Taylor at third base and hit groundballs at him from now until spring training.
How bad could he be?
by Governator on Nov 11, 2009 3:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Brilliant… practice makes perfect!
by Phils 2036 World CH on Nov 11, 2009 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jim Thome played 3rd in the minors. I think Taylor would be worse…
by philiafan14364 on Nov 11, 2009 7:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ugh.
The Phillies are targeting free-agent utilityman Mark DeRosa as their first choice to replace third baseman Pedro Feliz after deciding to not pick up their 2010 option on Feliz…
I would sincerely hope that a 35-year old coming off wrist surgery, and who’s not a good defender at third base (yuck), isn’t our top priority this offseason.
by PhillyFriar on Nov 12, 2009 10:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
FIrst Choice? Seriously…come on Reuben – you have some good will yes – but you will lose it quickly if this is your FIRST CHOICE
by jemagee on Nov 12, 2009 10:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Monty wants a Quaker!
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Nov 12, 2009 6:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Those 3B defensive numbers don’t look that bad. In a lot of those seasons, he only played a couple of games there. In the seasons where he got significant playing time, he had UZR/150s of -13.5, -16.3, -7.6, +21.6, +23.6, -8.7. Which, I think, shakes out to a weighted average around zero.
Would still definitely prefer someone else. Just sayin’ is all.
by taco pal on Nov 12, 2009 8:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
P.W. Botha?
GAS FACE!
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Nov 13, 2009 8:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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