THIS JUST IN: Phillies Trade Lee, Hamels, Utley, Drabek, Brown, Taylor, D'Arnaud, Schmidt, Carlton, and Ashburn for Halladay and Two Prospects
by David S. Cohen on Dec 14, 2009 10:49 PM EST
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PrintThat's about where this thing is right now, right?
Let's get out on the table what we have the most certainty is true: Roy Halladay was in Philadelphia at some point today.
Is there anything more that we might have even a 50/50 shot of knowing is true? There have been about 148 iterations of this deal since 2pm this afternoon. The Phillies are trading Cliff Lee, then they're not trading Cliff Lee. The Phillies are getting prospects, then they're shipping prospects. The Phillies couldn't trade Joe Blanton, now they're sending Blanton and J.A. Happ out for physicals. The Phillies are negotiating a $68M contract with Halladay, then they're asking for small change in return from the Blue Jays.
It's all pure speculation at this point. And the reporters know that. All they have to do is look back at their Twitter feed or Facebook page and compare what they wrote earlier today with what they're writing or reporting now. There's no doubt at all that tomorrow morning it will all be different. (Hell, why wait? It'll be different two hours from now.) Just like it will be when the trade is announced (if there is even a trade to announce at the end of this).
If you want to know what's wrong with the internet, journalism, and sports, here's exhibit 1 with a bullet. Jon Heyman, Jayson Stark, Ken Rosenthal, Todd Zolecki, Andy Martino, etc. -- none of them can look like he's lagging behind the others. So they report what they've heard rather than what they've found out to be true. I'll sound old when I say this, but I'll say it anyway: in the old days, the reporters would have at least tried to do their fact checking, confirmed with multiple sources, and reported something in the next day's paper based on their best belief as to what the facts are. Now, what we get is a phone call from someone who might at one point in time have been in touch with some guy who knew someone who vacationed with an agent who is colleagues with another agent who has a player on the team who could be the fourth team in on the deal and who claims to know something. Then, that is reported right away so the scoop is made.
And we buy it hook, line, and sinker. Let me be entirely clear: I'm not immune to this at all. After all, did I get much work done this afternoon while trying to find out every morsel of information I could? Of course not. And where does that leave me? With the best report from one of the most trust-worthy reporters being that the Phillies are getting had and paying much more for Roy Halladay now than they would have had to pay in July. That makes no sense. I know it. Jayson Stark knows it. You know it. Yet that's what we get fed because we are hungry and the reporters know how to gorge us.
Someone who has reported something today may just get this deal right. But if they do, it'll be because blind squirrels do indeed find nuts every once in a while. It won't be for any other reason.
Remember that as this thing develops. We know nothing. And neither do they.
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Stark just reported he’s going to Toronto in the deal.
by David S. Cohen on Dec 14, 2009 10:51 PM EST up reply actions
Along with
Along with the Dude and Miceky Morandini (Toronto wanted some guys with world serieis experience).
by fantasybc88 on Dec 14, 2009 10:52 PM EST up reply actions
Braves fan here
Just wondering…do you guys like the deal, or not?
I’d like to see you guys get rid of Dominick Brown. He looked like the real deal to me when I watched him in the AFL. And that’s all you guys need…another hitter.
And a rotation of Halladay, Lee and Hamels would scare me quite a bit. That’s almost as good as the Braves’. :) I just can’t see this deal happening without the Mariners getting CLee in return.
In Frank Wren I trust.
I was going to
but it had a crazy amount of comments on it.
Care to put it in a nutshell?
In Frank Wren I trust.
by Scott Coleman on Dec 14, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
In a nutshell, I think most of us can’t understand how the Phillies would need to give up any top prospects to essentially swap a Cy Young winner making $9 million next year for a Cy Young winner with a no-trade clause making $16 million next year.
Thus, the iterations that include the Phillies dealing — in addition to Lee — two Top 25 prospects (Drabek and Taylor) along with the organization’s #4 prospect (d’Arnaud), and getting back Halladay, an outfielder who’s not nearly as good as Taylor (Gillies), and a reliever (Aumont)… well, it doesn’t make one iota of sense. I think most here would consider it a borderline fire-able offense for Ruben Amaro.
by PhillyFriar on Dec 14, 2009 11:03 PM EST up reply actions
I was thinking the same thing.
It sounds a lot like the Teixeira deal we did back in 07.
In Frank Wren I trust.
by Scott Coleman on Dec 14, 2009 11:08 PM EST up reply actions
It’s not just one year of Halladay, though, if they’re getting a window to sign him long-term before the trade goes through. Certainly that makes what we’re getting more valuable than just one year of Halladay. The negotiating window sounds great but it isn’t so good for the Phillies since they’d have exclusive negotiating rights with Halladay through the season and he’s obviously amenable to signing.
The “negotiating window” is a load of crap.
Toronto has virtually no leverage right now — they have a guy with a no-trade clause whose only suitors are rapidly falling by the wayside (Yankees trade prospects for Granderson, Red Sox sign Lackey). That’s all well and good that Halladay will sign an extension, but it doesn’t get the Blue Jays virtually the same goddamn package they would’ve gotten back in July.
by PhillyFriar on Dec 14, 2009 11:17 PM EST up reply actions
You’re right, Toronto has very little leverage—although they might have more than you think if the Angels decide to get involved again. Giving the Phillies a window to sign Halladay actually increases that leverage and the more favorable a deal Halladay signs increases their leverage more. I agree it’s silly—that was the point of my first post. The Phillies would have a “window” from now until November.
In a nutshell…
if we give up Drabek, Im going to Amaro’s house with an ice pick and a meat grinder.
by philiafan14364 on Dec 14, 2009 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
I’m coming with you, I’ll bring a blow torch and a pair of pliers.
Scar tissue is stronger than muscle tissue. Realize the strength, move on.
Maybe you guys could take Derek Lowe with you? The Bravos wouldn’t want much anything in return.
In Frank Wren I trust.
by Scott Coleman on Dec 14, 2009 11:07 PM EST up reply actions
Ummmm....
Did you read this post? “Do you guys like the deal or not?” is an absurd question at this point since no one has a clue what the deal is. It’s all just rumor at best, pure speculation at worst.
by David S. Cohen on Dec 14, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
Damn David beat me to this!
by Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 on Dec 14, 2009 11:01 PM EST reply actions
Great journalism
Did you get this deal from a napkin at Ruben’s house?
Or maybe his daughter’s Twitter feed?
!!!
10:12pm: Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun (via Twitter) has Toronto getting Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D’Arnaud; Philly getting Roy Halladay and Philippe Aumont; and the Mariners getting Cliff Lee, plus another piece (or, pieces).
Just repeating the crap others have already said.
by David S. Cohen on Dec 14, 2009 11:22 PM EST up reply actions
Lauber weighs in...
…by simply regurgitating what’s already been reported. Further proof that no one really knows what’s going on.
Have to say, though, that this is the logic that really irks me (no disrespect to Scott; this is just what the prevailing “logic” is right now):
To be clear, though, this is a different deal than the one the Phillies possibly could have made in July. Back then, the Jays asked for both Drabek and Domonic Brown. From what we’ve heard, this deal doesn’t involve Brown…
Oh, right. This deal is different because instead of including Drabek, Brown, and Happ, we’re including Drabek, Taylor, and d’Arnaud… oh yeah, and CLIFF FREAKING LEE.
And as for this crap about the Blue Jays kicking in $6 million: if the Phillies ownership is really miserly enough to let that money force the organization into dealing its top prospects, then Dave Montgomery and those guys should be ashamed of themselves.
Cliff Freaking Lee . . . the forgotten man already.
by David S. Cohen on Dec 14, 2009 11:26 PM EST up reply actions
as i suspected...
part of Ruben’s plan to stage a 30-team deal in which every player goes to where he started…
that sly SOB
Stark and Kurkjian were just on SportsCenter...
…and reported the same stuff.
If it’s true, then the Phillies need to pull the plug on this deal immediately. Neither portion of the deal makes sense. Both the Mariners and Blue Jays come out big winners, and the Phillies come out headed for last place in the NL East from 2014 onward.
CAN SOMEBODY GET ME OFF THIS FUCKING LEDGE?!
by Michael Levin on Dec 15, 2009 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
Shit.
Rosenthal has also picked it up now, which isn’t a good sign.
#Phils getting $6M from #Jays in Halladay deal. Drabek, Taylor, likely D’Arnaud to TOR, Aumont, Gillies and 3rd player to PHI…
Unless that 3rd player is Felix Hernandez, then Amaro should be lynched in front of City Hall tomorrow.
I want to send a preemptive thank you out to Amaro for throwing away the future of our franchise. This just smacks of the move in which his luck runs out.
by FuquaManuel on Dec 15, 2009 12:39 AM EST up reply actions
If this is true, I can’t wait to hear Amoron try to explain it.
by FuquaManuel on Dec 15, 2009 12:49 AM EST up reply actions
How the hell does this end up happning?
it just cant be true. ruben’s supposed to be a genius. this is total bull shit
by IndianEagle on Dec 15, 2009 12:46 AM EST reply actions
Is anyone else not jumping of the Ben Franklin yet? Looking for survivors, and those who haven’t drank the cultist Kool Aid yet
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Dec 15, 2009 12:52 AM EST reply actions
I’m not jumping until I hear the deal from the horse’s mouth. I don’t trust anything being reported right now.
by doubleh on Dec 15, 2009 12:54 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
so you’re on the ledge so to speak?
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Dec 15, 2009 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
but rosenthal was right about lee being included 2 days ago. apperently he knows something
by IndianEagle on Dec 15, 2009 12:57 AM EST up reply actions
lets hope so this deal makes no sense from out stand point. the M’s and Jay’s are way better off
by IndianEagle on Dec 15, 2009 12:59 AM EST up reply actions
exactly they are getting lee why are we giving more up than anyone. the whole point of trading lee was to get prospects for Doc
by IndianEagle on Dec 15, 2009 1:01 AM EST up reply actions
The point of trading Lee
was also to clear salary. Sadly teams know this and assume that as a part of the dea.
Someone please tell me why the hell we are giving any prospects away that makes no sense to me, the Mariners should unload their farm…
exactly they are getting lee why are we giving more up than anyone. the whole point of trading lee was to get prospects for Doc
by IndianEagle on Dec 15, 2009 1:02 AM EST up reply actions
Well, how much did the Phils really give up to get Lee for 1-1/2 years? Is Seattle really going to give the Phillies that much more for only a 1 season rental and pay his salary? The Lee issue seems like a salary dump to me. Amaro can’t pay Lee/Blanton and Halladay.
It’s the trade for Halladay that really makes me mad. Essentially we are said to be giving up all the pieces we wouldn’t part with last summer. Why didn’t they just make that deal then? That’s the part that doesn’t make sense.
Prospects are being given up because Cliff Lee is essentially a one year rental. He will walk after this year, regardless of the team he is with. He is looking for Sabathia like money, in other words money that only is had in the AL EAST. Knowing this, the Mariners want more than just a rental player who will be gone in a year. This is where Halladay is involved. Halladay represents a player like that of Lee who wants to negotiate an extension so to speak, making him more than a 1 year rental. This makes his value go up. Essentially what you have is Halladay having more value than Lee because Halladay wants an extension. So when the BJs give up Halladay, they want that much value back. They get that value in the form of our prospects and the M’s prospects. All in all, Halladay and Lee are not of equal value, make no mistake about it. This probably won’t help anyone
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Dec 15, 2009 1:05 AM EST up reply actions
Well ok, but still the Phils can be like ok we dont NEED Halladay, and then Toronto is forced to keep him and lose him to FA anyway. Mariners have a chance to sign Lee long term as well, I can bare with losing one prospect but I mean come on
Yes but like Toronto we are losing Lee to FA anyway. Would you rather enter into a bidding war with NYY and BOS which we are sure to lose, or would you rather sacrifice the prospects, skip the whole free agency phase, and keep the star pitcher. Seattle is not going to extend Lee
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Dec 15, 2009 1:11 AM EST up reply actions
If he walks, WE get the prospects. Wouldn’t it then be more logical to keep Lee, give up whoever we end up giving up to get Halladay (assuming they eat some of his salary for this year) and sign Halladay to the extension? Why involve Seattle at all? It doesn’t make sense to me.
yeah fuck the Mariners, they are gonna we winning from this if they get Lee and only have to deal one or two prospects
they have an oppurtunity to sign him long term tho….. How do you know for sure Lee wants to test free agency, he may just look for the right long-term YEAR deal not so much money
Im sure man that whatever you think Seattle will try, the Phillies have already tried it
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Dec 15, 2009 1:16 AM EST up reply actions
The Phillies are on a budget, and if Lee wasn’t involved this deal wouldn’t be happening. There was no getting Halladay with only prospects, we needed to exchange salary for salary.
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Dec 15, 2009 1:13 AM EST up reply actions
I wish we could figure out a way to trade Blanton instead; isn’t he a FA after this season as well?
Of course, no one wants him, right?
Would you settle for a honda civic if a new mercedes was available?
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Dec 15, 2009 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
not really, he’s projected as a 4-5 starter, if everything goes right he’s a 3 at best.
by Michael Levin on Dec 15, 2009 1:22 AM EST up reply actions
trust me man I’m right there with everyone else that want to trade in their junk in for gold, it’s just not a feasible option. In a business to make money you gotta spend money. Plus, I think with Blanton we’re more likely to get a hometown discount than we were with Lee.
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Dec 15, 2009 1:19 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed. It’s not really the Lee part that I am angry about; it’s the Halladay portion of the trade. It just seems outrageous to give up that much, but again, I want to see the actual details before I freak out. There have been so many names bandied about, it’s hard to keep my head from spinning.
I’m sure that whatever prospects we traded we will feel jobbed. This trade will show its weaknesses and strengths next year, when we still have Halladay and the prospects we traded elsewhere mature. Factor in the idea that next year we may or may not have a World Series title also. It’s funny how winning changes peoples minds
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Dec 15, 2009 1:24 AM EST up reply actions
But it shouldn’t. Winning a WS doesn’t make it OK if Kyle Drabek wins multiple CY’s for the Jays and/or Michael Taylor is a future AS.
I just bought a signed Taylor Phillies card, too. Goddamnit!
Yeah but isn’t a World Series the whole point of the game? As a fan I’d take 2 world Series wins over 3 Cy Young Winners and 5 All stars. Ask Greinke: he won a Cy Young with amazing numbers, but the Royals will never win a championship, or even win a division any time soon. I bet you he’d trade in that Cy Young for a playoff birth
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Dec 15, 2009 1:32 AM EST up reply actions
we still lose out
on prospects, taylor is a better prospect than gillies, and drabek is better than (and if not just as good as) aumont. We give up our future catching prospect, but Chooch should be good for at least another 2 years before we have to sign a catcher or bring one up. We may have to plug up a one year replacement if we don’t resign werth after this year and brown isn’t ready however. Overall, the huge deal breaker is us signing Roy to at least 3 years and TEAM options for 4th and 5th years. If Happ works out as a 4th starter and Hamels can come through and be a legit number two, that still leaves us with Aumont having to eventually start.
So right now if this deal goes down our starters will be:
Roy
Hamels
Blanton
Happ
Kendrik/Pedro(resigned)/Moyer(after he recovers)
the next year we will have to replace Blanton in all likelihood, along with Werth if we don’t resign him and Brown isn’t ready. Aumont most likely won’t be ready for 2011 unless he somehow puts it all together this upcoming year. That forces us to sign at least a third or fourth starting caliber SP next off-season (depending on how Happ pitches this year), along with a 5th starter unless we can bring someone up or Aumont is ready for 2011.
This all just doesn’t seem worth it anymore
by IndianEagle on Dec 15, 2009 1:37 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
If the key to the deal is Brown, then I say give him away, keep Lee for this year, in my mind its the only way we can overcome the Yanks with Lee and Halladay both in our lineup
1. Lee has to go because salary has to be moved. Everyone knows this, so the only way to get any value for said salary is, unfortunately, to trade Lee. He’ll also clear more money than any pitcher we could trade (or any position player with any trade value).
2. You’re not allowed to trade picks in the amateur draft like you can in other sports. In fact, you’re not even allowed to trade your pick until one year after you’ve signed them. (Though you could slap a PTBNL tag on them and wait for the year to run out).
3. Even if you could, Brown, D’Arnaud and a pick wouldn’t be near enough to get him without Lee.
1. Lee’s making $9 million next year. If the Phillies knew they would be putting together a deal for Halladay and would need to save that money, they could simply have non-tendered Durbin (who’s likely to make $2 million) and either traded Blanton (who’s likely to make $7 million) or non-tendered him as well.
3. Why wouldn’t Brown and d’Arnaud be good enough? It’s the best package Toronto is going to see (it’s better than the Angels’ proposed package because of Brown by himself).
Ho Hum another NL East title locked up
Maybe we will have the NL East wrapped up by late-August next year? This is getting too easy. Imagine the Mets and Braves…..they are getting nothing but crumbs.
by RomanColoradoPhilly on Dec 15, 2009 2:02 AM EST reply actions
What in the fuck are you talking about?
by FuquaManuel on Dec 15, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
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