I’ve been waiting for a write up on all the prospects. I’m glad he’s bullish on Ramirez.

surprised to see such a high level of return. as a mets fan, can’t say i’m pleased about all this.

obviously everyone knows about aumont – ultra high upside but very erratic and raw; could be a late-inning reliever or a top-notch starter or flameout all together

but it’s gillies who has been an under-the-radar favorite of mine for a couple of years now. don’t know if it was mentioned in that article but as a legally deaf player he’s a pretty incredible story. actually reminds me a lot of victorino’s all around game.

and ramirez hasn’t put up great #’s but apparently has a very live arm.

1) It says that the Jays will flip Taylor for Wallace. Umm… if that deal was available, why didnt the Phils just do that? We need a 3B (I know Wallace doesnt project to stick there, but Im sure a similar deal would be available) and have an abundance of OFers, so… what am I missing here?

2) Is this 60mil/3 years deal with Halladay really that much of a bargin? Lee was searching for Sabathia type money, which was 23mil a year (161 over 7?, something like that). Halladays making 20 mil a year. The difference is only 3 figgin million a season! How much money are we really saving here? By my logic, not enough to justify giving up 3 of our 4 best prospects, especially when you consider they would all be cost controlled.

I just dont understand this at all.

If we just got a rotation of Halladay, Lee, Hamels, KK and Moyer, would that really be so bad?

Lets just assume we win all of the big 3’s starts, and lose the starts made by the 4 and 5 slots (the deviations would likely balance each other out). Thats 97 wins. Whats the problem with that?

Hitler finds out Kyle Drabek is on the trade block

I got a question for all you Phillippe Aumont haters out there: have you seen him pitch? If not, I suggest you watch a video before you continue to diss the best arm in the Phillies system. Even if we somehow kept Drabek, I’d rate Aumont’s stuff a tad better. I absolutely hate losing Drabek’s spike curveball, because its a dominant pitch that will likely strikeout a thousand major league batters, but Aumont’s power curve is a plus pitch, and the rest of his repertoire is clearly better. Both of his fastballs just explode through the strike zone: his mid to high 90s four seamer, rises and moves laterally, tailing away from left handed hitters and his two seamer(mid to low 90s) darts downward with heavy sink. He uses his large frame to hide the ball well, which makes him difficult to pick up.
        Phillippe Aumont is 6′7″ 230 and still physically maturing at the age of 20. By all accounts, he’s a hard worker and tough SOB, who has had nothing handed to him. He sometimes lets his emotions get the better of him, which led to him injuring his non-throwing hand when he punched a locker. His hip injury is NOT a degenerative condition as many have suggested. The Mariners moved him to the bullpen because they thought his nasty demeanor and unhittable(.177 BAA) stuff made him well suited for that role. The Phillies could leave him in the pen for now, just to fast track him to the big leagues, but make no mistake: Phillippe Aumont has top of the rotation potential.
       Come to think of it, Aumont’s body, demeanor and power repertoire resemble the other pitcher on his way to Philly. Under Doc’s tutelage, maybe Aumont can mature into another ace. The potential is there, and more importantly, he seems to have the passion for the game that cannot be taught.

This guy could just be a trolling Ms fan, but he could also know what hes talking about.

It’s hard because it really makes the fact we traded for Lee pointless (yes don’t argue and I hope Amaro can eventually say that). I still don’t know why we didn’t just go to the Angels and at least try to get Aybar and Saunders.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/12/15/1201345/analyzing-halladay-lee-insanity

Heres the sparknoted version:

• These people are smart
• They say we lose big time

So whats the word? Is the trade officially official?

so is this lee deal definite or can we still back out and shop him around? i cant find much about that deal

Caveat: I’m a Mariners fan, and come by here occasionally. More active at USS Mariner and Lookout Landing.

At USS Mariner I made the following narrative post as a partial reply to a Phillies fan who was taking issue with Dave Cameron’s analysis of the trade (in the comments to the same thread that Rob Neyer linked to). I thought I would put it up here, with a few edits to fit this context, for some background from a Mariners fan (as well as a guy who thinks Jamie Moyer is an awesome person, even though his pitching skills may have finally eroded).

I have no problems at all with the analysis at Phuture Phillies, save that I think that Phuture Phillies may be overvaluing Ramirez a bit. Not in terms of potential, but in relation to the probability of Ramirez actually achieving that potential. If Ramirez had shot through High A ball with no significant issues, I would raise my estimation higher. But it doesn’t seem to me to be that rare to find guys in A-Ball who seems to have similar potential as Ramirez, and similar issues to address, and but relatively few of them actually recognize that potential.

Have at it. I hope this is informative.

The Mariners minor league system is generally considered middle of the road in overall caliber of prospects. There are no prospects in the system that are considered top tier prospects. Even if you add Morrow to the list of prospects (which he isn’t classed as anymore) that’s still the case. Morrow is interesting, but he’s also demonstrated that he is anything but a sure thing. And he is the closest to a "sure thing" in the system.

Beyond that the Mariners system is largely a collection of "interesting" guys. Some of them have decent potential, but the reality is that only about 20% of such guys ever reach that potential. That’s why the guys are not highly rated; the attrition rate is too great. They don’t get a top rating until they show that they are actually realizing that potential.

And breaking it down further, the system is particularly weak in pitching. Hence, [Dave Cameron’s] comments above that even the Mariners best pitching prospects aren’t all that great.

Perhaps Ramirez is the best prospect in the system, but it’s not as if he blew away hitters in high A-ball. He certainly did credibly, particularly when accounting for the joke in Adelanto that was his home park. But it’s also clear that he has some things to work on to succeed at higher levels. And the things he needs to work on are exactly the things that derail 3/4 of the players like him. That’s why I think his realistic upside is to be part of a major league bullpen. Maybe he will get it together and be more than that. But it’s least equally likely that he’ll never get past AAA ball.

You can almost repeat the above post for Aumont. Then you can ponder why the Mariners moved Aumont from a starting role to the bullpen. If he truly profiles best as a relief pitcher – to the point where the Mariners appear to have given up on him as a starter – that greatly reduces his value. Or, as has been reported by some observers, he has a physical condition that will prevent him from ever assuming the workload of a starter.

****

Ok – so the Mariners farm system is largely a middling system, with no "sure thing" players. A number of interesting guys, but almost every one of those guys comes with major question marks. Not questions that are the difference between whether the guy is a perennial all-star or an occasional all-star; these are questions about whether the guy is even MLB caliber. Or, for guys like Saunders and Moore who are close to MLB ready, they profile as simply regulars at best.

In other words the best players in the Mariners system are the types of players that are found in all but the most barren farm systems. What the Mariners most notably are lacking are truly elite prospects.

And what the Phillies are getting out of that syatem isn’t even the best of such a middling system. The Phillies are getting essentially a couple of "B" level prospects and one "C" level prospect of the type that can be found in any system and that a decent scouting and player development organization can likely replenish with one year’s amateur draft + one year of international free agent signings. And the comp picks garnered when Lee leaves will make it even easier to restock.

******

That seems like not very much to pay for one year of Cliff Lee. That’s the type of payment that any team but the bottom third in farm system caliber ought to be able to easily match. One year of Cliff Lee + 2 comp picks is simply worth more than what one team can reasonably expect to replace in one year of new talent acquisition.

That’s why it appears to most observers that the Phillies are coming out short in what they are obtaining for Cliff Lee.