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359 days ago...

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus published his list of the Phillies' top 11 prospects, as follows: 

  1. Carlos Carrasco RHP
  2. Michael Taylor OF
  3. Kyle Drabek RHP
  4. Travis D'Arnaud C
  5. Lou Marson C
  6. Jason Donald SS
  7. Dominic [sic] Brown OF
  8. J.A. Happ LHP
  9. Zach Collier OF
  10. Jason Knapp RHP
  11. Anthony Hewitt 3B

Of that list, the first six (and seven of the first ten) are gone through trades for Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, one has graduated to the majors, and two have seen their prospect status take a bit hit. Even considering how quickly minor leaguers' stock can rise and fall, that's a hell of a lot of change. 

Yet it wouldn't be accurate to draw the conclusion that the Phillies have gutted their system. Goldstein had Domonic Brown (as we now know is his actual name) as a three-star prospect in December 2008; when he posts his new list in January or February, I'll be very surprised if Brown doesn't earn five stars and sit at the top of the list. And while Collier and Hewitt lost considerable luster in 2009, neither can drink legally yet; one or both easily could bounce back. Meanwhile, the Phils added exciting position-player talents in the last calendar year in teenagers Domingo Santana and Jon Singleton; outfielder Anthony Gose vaulted ahead of Collier and Hewitt (who was converted to the outfield during Florida Instructional League after posting a sub-.850 fielding percentage at third base); Sebastian Valle emerged as a legit hitting prospect behind the plate; pitchers Yohan Flande, Trevor May, Jared Cosart, Jesus Sanchez, and Brody Colvin all stepped forward; and the team will replenish some of what they're sending to the Blue Jays for Halladay with former Mariners farmhands Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and J.C. Ramirez, all of whom will rank in the top handful of Phillies prospects.

So what's the point? Just that, while it's a bit disconcerting to realize that in some sense the system has been decapitated over the last calendar year, in no respect is it headless. The franchise isn't gutted, the future hasn't been sold off; even as high-ceiling talent goes out the front door, more comes in through the side and the back. Player development has two important components: drafting and trading wisely, and guiding the growth and improvement of the raw talent acquired. The Phillies' recent organizational track record in both is pretty impressive, and that should lessen the sting of losing even top prospects like Drabek and Taylor.

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Not gutted

But also not good enough to prevent the now almost inevitable collapse in 2011/2012. Thats when the core of this team will either be too old or too expensive to keep around in its entirety. If we still had all that young talent, I think we would have been fine in those years.

Of course, if we win the WS with Doc this year, I wont care if we dont win a single game in either of those 2 years…

by philiafan14364 on Dec 16, 2009 4:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

How are the phillies that ended the 2009 seasion worse than the phillies that go into the 2010 season?

Cliff Lee was a freaking marvel in the playoffs – halladay can’t pitch much better unless the phillies want to go on 3 days rest.

So I don’t see the phillies as ‘more’ of a world series winner now then they were after game 6….they’re hopefully still the team to beat assuming that shane and werth maintain their numbers, ibanez doesn’t age, rollins doesn’t suck more and polanco isn’t terrible, but they’re not any ‘better’ to me

by jemagee on Dec 16, 2009 4:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

my bad – sorry

by jemagee on Dec 16, 2009 5:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We are better, on the basis that Hamels and Lidge will improve considerably or at least come close to their 2008 numbers which would punch the club up about 15 more wins right there

by MalibuLSV23 on Dec 16, 2009 8:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

15 more wins is a stretch…lidge may improve, or he may be broken…or he’s just a closer & very few of them are consistent. How will Hamels improve – luck is hard to control

by jemagee on Dec 16, 2009 8:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

But Ibanez will likely be worse, Werth may regress, there could be injuries, etc.

There are no metaphysical certainties.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Dec 16, 2009 9:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think that Rollins is going to be worse and that even Victorino will regress some, plus ‘defensively’ the infield isn’t as good any more and who knows if polanco’s offense will make up for the weaker defense.

by jemagee on Dec 17, 2009 9:53 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I really don’t think Rollins will be worse next year. I mean, do you really think he just fell off a permanent cliff in2009?

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Dec 21, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Also, the fact that his second half of ’09 was so much better than his first half would seem to debunk that one pretty good.

by taco pal on Dec 21, 2009 7:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I will settle for phenomenological certainties.

by Philibuster on Dec 21, 2009 1:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Better in every way

We are better now in every way. #1 The Bench. We had no bench players we could rely on and so wore out Utley and had no power when our relievers came in for the 7th through the 9th. Our Bullpen is better in that we are not injured as the entire Pen except Madson was injured at some time last year. Hopefully that will not happen this summer and that will automatically make us better. We are better at third base in that we have a reliable clutch hitter replacing Feliz. Last year we left a TON of guys stranded despite scoring so many runs (too many on single homers) in part from poor bench/Feliz and fatigue.
Our starting pitching is better because Cole Hamels will be better than 2009 and we have Holliday for a WHOLE SEASON. Last year we had Cliff Lee for the second half only, and Doc has proved he is the better pitcher for the LONG haul. Teams who play well all season with a good bench to protect from fatigue/injury are stronger in October (like the Yanks last year and our pitching staff in 2007). Barring injury and settling our bullpen before Spring we are an AWESOME team for 2010, and the prospects from Seattle can make us good for years to come.
That said, I HATE losing Lee. He gave his all for us and I feel he deserved better, but you only get one chance at a Holliday, so time will tell if the move was right. Go Phils in 2010!

by Fillyfaninforeignland on Dec 16, 2009 11:26 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

hmm

I’d like to read your study on the Phillies’ problems stranding baserunners, and also hear your thoughts on the prospects the Phillies gave up in this trade.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Dec 17, 2009 8:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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