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Around SBN: This Should Encourage Juan Mata

Four Last (?) Thoughts on the Halladay/Lee Trades

I’m struggling to put a cap on this week’s stunning turn of events: one Cy Young Award winner out the door, another coming in, a transfusion of high-ceiling young talent, and the avowal of arguably the best pitcher in the game that coming to Philadelphia to play baseball was "a dream come true"—a sentiment he backed up by leaving tens of millions of dollars on the table in return for the privilege of joining the Phillies. Simultaneously I’m exhausted by this story and still finding new aspects of it that are nothing short of staggering.

So I’m going to try to articulate some of these thoughts, and then shut up about it for awhile. Maybe.

Star-divide

  • The Circle is Now Complete. In the span of two years toward the beginning of this decade, Curt Schilling and Scott Rolen—the Phillies’ two signature players as of 2000—talked their way out of town. Both blasted the organization as insufficiently committed to winning; Schilling thought the Phils were cheap, and Rolen additionally hated the manager, the stadium and the fans, if not the city itself. Much more often than not, players with limited no-trade clauses listed the Phils among the teams to which they would under no circumstances approve a deal. The team began to turn that perception around when they signed Jim Thome as a free agent just months after trading Rolen—but they had to massively overpay the slugging first baseman compared to other offers for him. Now, after seven years of winning records and perennial contender status, three straight division titles, two straight pennants and one world championship, they might be the premier destination in the game: terrific clubhouse, passionate (but supportive!) and loyal fan base, gem of a ballpark, demonstrated commitment to winning. For anyone who’s been a fan since the late ‘90s, it’s almost unfathomable—and pays back with interest all the pain from those days. 
  • Prudent or Insecure?: Like most here, I would have preferred to keep both Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee for 2010. If that meant "gutting the system" for the time being, fine—though I don’t think it necessarily would have. (Remember too that the price tag in prospects for Halladay was steeper since the Blue Jays included that $6 million; dealing away the likes of Joe Blanton and Shane Victorino for whatever return they might yield, and non-tendering useless Chad Durbin, just about would have covered Halladay’s 2010 price tag, and that doesn’t even contemplate the possibility that he would have deferred a million of two of that money to future seasons if asked.) But even if the Toronto deal went through exactly as it did, the team would have retained top prospect Domonic Brown, more than a half-dozen nearly ready pitchers in the upper levels of the minors (Antonio Bastardo, Joe Savery, Yohan Flande, Sergio Escalona, Drew Carpenter, Vance Worley, Scott Mathieson, et al), and high-ceiling younger prospects like Sebastian Valle, Anthony Gose, Trevor May, Jared Cosart and Domingo Santana. Granted, the three former Seattle prospects should be ready to contribute in the majors by 2012 or so, as that younger cohort won’t be (and as Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor would have). But it wasn’t a stripped system without them. I keep thinking that the Red Sox or Yankees would have kept both aces, taken the short-term developmental hit, and committed either to doubling their draft budget for the next year or allocating new millions for international signings. That the Phils didn’t do this suggests that they still aren’t quite entirely self-identifying as a big-shot franchise that can surmount whatever obstacles emerge. Part of me sees this prudence as a big plus—it suggests they won’t turn into the Mets—while another part is just bummed that we don’t have the two aces (and still wonders if that was really the best possible deal out there for Lee).  
  • There's No Crying in Hot Stove Baseball: Anyone who remembers the early ‘90s Phillies, particularly the 1993 pennant winner, has to be a bit stunned by the team’s decision to cut ties with Cliff Lee. (As Lee was himself, it turns out.) What Lee did in his first post-season run was astounding, every bit the equal and then some of what Cole Hamels accomplished in October a year earlier. He was an instant Phillies legend—and six weeks later, he was a Seattle Mariner. Compare this to the sweetheart contracts the Phils gave Darren Daulton and Lenny Dykstra, both on the wrong side of 30 with extensive injury histories, after 1993; sentiment, specifically that of ownership front man/buffoon Bill Giles, drove those deals. Ruben Amaro Jr., though, evidently has his blood set at a much lower temperature. Again, this is a good thing—and, more than anything else, it should represent the last shovelful of dirt on the notion that these are in any respect the "same old Phillies."  
  • An End, or a Beginning? It’s worth thinking about why Halladay fixated on the Phillies as the team he wanted to join so much that he took millions less than he might have claimed as a free agent. The results, yes: this is the most successful team in baseball over the last three seasons. But it’s the same set of factors that evidently so impressed Lee when he joined the team: "an ‘unbelievable’ lineup and excellence from top to bottom in Philadelphia’s organization." That’s Amaro in his relentless commitment to making the team a champion; that’s Charlie Manuel in his support for the players and his steady hand at the tiller; that’s Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard and the guys brought in around them who take cues from the leaders, ballplayers who match great talent with even greater desire. That’s Citizens Bank Park, which now confers a home-field advantage equal to that enjoyed by any great team in any great ballyard, and the fans who fill it night after night. The distance this franchise has traveled in the years since Schilling and Rolen pulled their parachute cords is just staggering, and Halladay’s arrival is just the latest validation of what the Phillies have accomplished. 

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. But it wasn’t a stripped system without them. I keep thinking that the Red Sox or Yankees would have kept both aces, taken the short-term developmental hit, and committed either to doubling their draft budget for the next year or allocating new millions for international signings

Just wanted to highlight this because I think it’s a very important thing that will be missed personally, bust a few slots, get some bigger bonuses for a few central american 16 year olds…seriously, if you don’t want to spend 9 million dollars on cliff lee this year – 9 million dollars towards restocking the system probably could be pretty useful

by jemagee on Dec 17, 2009 11:11 PM EST reply actions  

I question whether we’ll run out of thoughts on these trades in the next 6 years.

by Governator on Dec 18, 2009 12:06 AM EST reply actions  

I’m not convinced that slot-busting is even all that beneficial for a ballclub. If you’re giving market rates (or something approaching that) to draftees, you are, by definition, not getting much extra value for your dollar. You’re just moving money from one pocket to another. The whole reason why the draft is a valuable tool, especially for less wealthy teams, is that it’s intentionally designed to be a counterweight to a pure free market. If you forego that benefit, it more or less defeats the purpose. (Now I understand that even a slot-busting team will pay a sub-market rate to their draftees since it will still have the advantage of temporary exclusive negotiating rights, so there will still be some value. But it won’t be as much.)

I also disagree that the Red Sox would have been likely to take the hit to their system. They have, if anything, been much more reluctant to trade bigtime prospects for bigtime veterans than the Phillies have. Even the most notable exception (Hanley Ramirez) was traded for a young major leaguer not yet in his prime, not an older veteran at or past his peak. The Red Sox would be more likely to keep their prospects and bust slot in the draft the following year, not one or the other.

by taco pal on Dec 18, 2009 1:37 AM EST reply actions  

I’m pretty sure busting slot is very beneficial to a ballclub.

You can draft and sign pretty much as many first-round talents as you want, provided you are willing to pay up. No matter how firm a prospect’s commitment is, everyone has a price. The draft is, of course, designed to give the best teams the chance to get the best players, but obviously there are other forces at play there.

There are so many guys that get drafted 10th round and later who are really talented high school guys that are thought to be unsignable. Throw 500k, 600k, 700k, at them and the answers start to change quick. Of course all budgets are finite, and you can’t do it with an unlimited amount of guys every year, but in a given year there’s probably three or four guys in a single team’s draft class that are those types of players.

Imagine if the Phillies had gotten Stewart and Susac to go with Singleton and Colvin.

Cosart was a 37th round pick, and look what kind of arm he’s got. They already had a gaggle of major arms (Pettibone/Shreve/May) but they went out and got another. Between those four, the team probably expended about $2 million. Conservatively project just one of them to become an effective MLB starter, and you have that player’s first three years of service for in the neighborhood of $3.5 million (all four bonuses plus salary). I put the bonuses together because, with pitchers especially, I ascribe to throwing as much talent at the wall as possible. Whatever sticks is good, but it’s the process that’s key, and all four of the guys are from the same process.

Those opportunities are always out there, it’s just how frequently a team does it.

Anyhow, it would be nice to see the Phils bust slot a few times this year to pick up some premium infield talent to go with all those young arms and outfielders.

by Governator on Dec 18, 2009 8:32 AM EST up reply actions  

All that said, I agree that this was a great article.

I’m finding the Lee trade to be strangely alienating, for reasons completely separate from the merits of the deal. I’m not so naive as to think that any of us can ever really know the ballplayers or develop any sort of genuine personal appreciation for them. However, at the same time, I think it’s perfectly legitimate to find a sort of aesthetic appeal in continuity. Rooting for a team is an emotional investment, and it’s just more fun to root for people than for commodities. Otherwise, you might as well just root for the stock market.

I’ll get over it though.

by taco pal on Dec 18, 2009 1:42 AM EST reply actions  

Yeah
I’ll get over it though.

Perhaps after Halladay’s first complete game shutout? ;-)

by ajay on Dec 18, 2009 4:12 AM EST up reply actions  

This is definitely how I’m feeling right now, and I’m glad someone could put it better than I could. I know the whole line about Lee wanting to pitch his whole career in Philly might just be sturm und drang, and I realize I can’t know Lee, but you can’t deny some kind of emotional investment. It’s not like I’ll stop rooting or watching, but alienating is the perfect word.

by Trev223 on Dec 18, 2009 6:47 AM EST up reply actions  

now, now… we’ve become such a “destination” that we can afford to kick Cy Young winners to the curb…

by Boundforbeach on Dec 18, 2009 8:30 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh well, yeah, I’m not too remorseful, but pretty much just in line with the whole weirdly felt remorse/unease WC so nicely expresses below.

by Trev223 on Dec 18, 2009 8:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Uh, unless you’re being tongue in cheek about “Destination” status being too revered, in which case I do agree, the casualness with which Lee was dropped smacks a bit of arrogance.

Please use whichever response best represents! Haha, it’s so hard to distinguish tone in words.

by Trev223 on Dec 18, 2009 8:44 AM EST up reply actions  

ewww

Something just felt very “untoward” about the whole approach to the Lee deal. I dunno. Like “dumping your hot fiancee for a hotter one after you’ve picked out an apartment”.

And with that creepy comment, I drop out.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Dec 18, 2009 7:55 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

and the one you dump takes the 50 inch plasma TV, and the new one moves in with a 10 year old 27 inch Magnavox

by Boundforbeach on Dec 18, 2009 8:07 AM EST up reply actions  

I keep thinking of that old Steve Martin bit: “I break with thee, I break with thee, I break with thee—then throw dog poop on her shoes.”

Rec’d for my everlasting commitment to metaphors involving baseball and romance.

by Wet Luzinski on Dec 18, 2009 10:24 AM EST up reply actions  

I’m still debating weather to like this deal or not. But, hey we got Roy Halladay probably the best pitcher in the game and still going to be stellar for at least for as long we have him. I really hate that we had to get rid of Kyle Drabek but, we did get alright prospects in return. I honestly think that Halladay’s going to have a complete game almost every start I mean look how many he had with the jays and he’s in a very tough league and division. I also think that Antonio Bastardo is going to be a really good pitcher and can take over in Drabeks place (maybe not as good, but his time will come) I hope Halladay can bring it next year and take us to the World Series again for the 3rd straight time Woot Woot. Philly 4 Life.

Chritopher T. Karsz

by Phanatic43 on Dec 18, 2009 4:51 AM EST reply actions  

Remember the 2007 draft?

Rick Porcello was on the board when we picked, but the Phils took a shot at Joe Savery. Porcello was a known quantity, the best high school pitcher in the draft. He wanted big bucks. Savery was a former stud from the Rice program that has a reputation for ruining arms. Savery hurt his arm, dropped about 10 slots, and we picked him up hoping for a full return to health. The Phils guessed wrong and, along with about 16 other teams, apparently were not willing to pay the freight for a Porcello.

I don’t think the Yankees or Red Sox would have passed on Porcello. Although the Phils have paid over slot the last two drafts, they should redouble their efforts in future drafts to re-establish a top grade minor league system.

Porcello would look awfully good right now in a Phillies uniform.

by Derekcarstairs on Dec 18, 2009 6:39 AM EST reply actions  

Porcello would look awfully good right now in a Phillies uniform.

I don’t want to talk about it.

by Sorry About Dresden on Dec 18, 2009 6:44 AM EST up reply actions  

I wouldn’t have minded Rick Porcello one bit. The bonus was absurd, though. I’d rather drop 10 one million dollar bonuses than one $10 million bonus.

by Governator on Dec 18, 2009 8:52 AM EST up reply actions  

yep, we arent talking formulas here or anything, but I can only guess that 10 one million dollar bonuses are going to create a higher output then the one 10 million dollar bonus.

A lot may depend on how other teams are drafting though, ie, if every team is looking for those 1 million dollar bonus guys, by the time you draft, that pool of talent may be running pretty dry and it would behoove you to go all out on one guy.

Its a lot of money to put in one complete unknown basket, though.

by Whack8888 on Dec 18, 2009 11:23 AM EST up reply actions  

But if you hire the right people, build the right system, than you should have more confidence in your picks overall.

For instance (using basketball again) – the sixers are a pretty crappily run organization, however, their drafting in the past 5 years or so has been quite good because they have a guy (Tony DiLeo) who seems a wiz at scouting and finding ‘value’ where other people miss it.

If you have confidence that your ‘draft gurus’ know what they’re doing you can have confidence to spend that 10 million on a guy like procello because when they tell you he’s ’can’t miss’ you have faith in them?

by jemagee on Dec 18, 2009 11:33 AM EST up reply actions  

I want to be clear, I’m not saying I want the phillies dropping those massive bonuses on every boras ‘advisee’ (cause he’s not their agent folks, not really, he’s an advisor)…but I do feel that teams willing to ignore ‘slot recommendations’ have a better shot at getting the better players in the draft, and that it’s a way to spend ‘9 million dollars’ (because that’s the lee salary) in a way that can help the franchise more in the long term future than that one year of Lee would (as he was replaced by Halladay)

It’s more of a ‘systemic’ thing I want to see changed, the phillies drafting the best players they can, deciding what they’re worth on their own instead of following an arbitrary slot system set up by a commissioners office for no real apparent reason. Seriously, who cares if Bud Selig is mad at you?

by jemagee on Dec 18, 2009 9:56 AM EST reply actions  

Finding ways to anger Bud Selig after the 2008 WS should always be a Phillies organizational externality to anything they do organizationally.

by Wet Luzinski on Dec 18, 2009 10:31 AM EST up reply actions  

Except that, and I’ve heard this can have bearing, while CBP is a new park it hasn’t had an ASG yet has it? All these new parks are getting the ASG but because they gave one to the vet near the end (why?) CBP hasn’t gotten that ‘cash influx’ yet (though in the past 43 years, pittsburgh has hosted 3 all star games).

by jemagee on Dec 18, 2009 10:34 AM EST up reply actions  

Even then, the amount of money you make from the ASG is going to pale pretty hard against the amount of money you save by having lots of cost controlled players. The only real downside to going overslot is that you set your own price to a certain degree, and it may make signings more difficult in the future, ie everyone will expect you to go overslot. Even then, that doesnt seem to be a big deal, as most guys seem to be willing to take a hit on immediate salary if they go into a system that has a reputation of paying its players.

High school John may actually accept a lower amount to sign with the Yankees then he would to sign with the Pirates, which is kind of wild.

by Whack8888 on Dec 18, 2009 11:19 AM EST up reply actions  

Not really – if John is confident in himself he assumes he becomes a star and it’s much easier to make big bucks staying with the yankees then having to worry about a FA market :)

by jemagee on Dec 18, 2009 11:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I think you are saying it is not really wild, and it isnt as far as believability etc goes. I was trying to get at that it is wild because it is basically one more hurdle small market teams have to jump over to compete.

by Whack8888 on Dec 18, 2009 11:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Except, here’s the thing (to me) instead of investing in middling FA’s like the royals do – spend 10 million on the draft, draft those guys who are going to leave when they can but at least get some prime years out of it. The fact is, I think, small market teams should be MORE willing to bust slot on what they view as a sure thing than a team like the yankees because you can still get ‘more’ for the 10 million dollars you’d invest in some mediocre free agent to make your fans think you’re trying to win.

Look at the Marlins – even with 2008 – they have just as many world series wins as the phillies in their history – sure they ‘bought’ one of them – but the second one was mainly prospect / developed player driven title wasn’t it? Then they move the guys they know they won’t afford (beckett) for cost control guys (ramirez)

I honestly think small market teams that bemoan free agency should be more likely to bust slot, not less, come draft time

by jemagee on Dec 18, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions  

Plus, if John stays with the Yankees, they’ll eventually trade him to Pittsburgh to acquire a veteran bat. Then the Yankees will sign him for big bucks as a free agent after he becomes a star. It all works out in the end.

by Cormican on Dec 18, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Busting slot...

First off, nice piece, dajafi. The complete 180 that this franchise has taken since last millenium is quite frankly astounding.

The busting slot discussion is an interesting one, and while I agree with the general premise, I want to point out that it’s not as cut and dried as some are making it out to be. TGP blogger emeritus Matt Swartz explained why teams do follow slot recommendations in his initial submission for the Baseball Prospectus Idol competition. It’s here, and there’s no subscription required, so I’d heavily recommend that everyone interested in the subject read that article.

Even if you decide to bust slot, it’s not always as simple as saying, “Let’s just draft a bunch of high schoolers later on and sign a couple to above slot bonuses.” It’s a subjective thing, but you have to make some sort of judgment as to what a player is worth in comparison to what they’re asking for — and for guys who have indicated a strong desire to head to college, the latter nearly always outweighs the former. Cosart, for example, signed for a $550K bonus, but if he were asking for $1 million, he would be at Oklahoma State right now. You can’t just draft prep guys — you have to do your homework to know what each’s price tag will be, how strong their commitment is, and how that matches up with your valuation. If you consistently overpay for bonus babies, you’re actually doing more harm than good.

by PhillyFriar on Dec 18, 2009 10:17 AM EST reply actions  

PF – you said it better than I did (as usual) but that’s kind of what i was trying to say), decide who your guys are, what they’re worth to your franchise, and then get em, whether you have to follow slot or not, I think what I’d like to see is the organizational philosophy change in that ‘draft the #1 guy available on your draft board regardless of his demands and then try and work it out’ as opposed to the ‘draft the guys you can afford to sign’ philosophy….i wasn’t advocating just throwing money around, just working the draft in a way that’s best for the organization, not best for Bud.

by jemagee on Dec 18, 2009 10:32 AM EST up reply actions  

They already have a fin Roy Halladay Bobblehead night planed

by Clyde Simmons on Dec 18, 2009 1:01 PM EST reply actions  

I don’t suppose Seattle comes to Philly next year does it?

by jemagee on Dec 18, 2009 1:02 PM EST reply actions  

Nope. Boston, Yankees, Twins, Indians, Blue Jays. Presumably we’ll go 4-14 in those games…

by dajafi on Dec 18, 2009 5:12 PM EST up reply actions  

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