Phillies Top 10 Stories of 2009: No. 8 -- What the Hell Happened to Brad Lidge?
by David S. Cohen on Dec 3, 2009 10:23 AM EST
24 comments
From perfection to perdition. From the best to the all-time worst. From a season of unending highs to a season of incessant lows.
And yet that doesn't even begin to describe how bad this past season was for Brad Lidge. The Phillies' vaunted closer, who was literally (not figuratively) perfect in 2008, literally (not figuratively) posted the worst relief season of all time in 2009.
There are way too many ways to demonstrate the horror that was Brad Lidge's season, but here are just a few for your enjoyment:
- Lidge pitched in the 9th inning in 62 games and gave up 48 runs and 99 base runners.
- Lidge's OPS against with men on base was 1.025 and with men in scoring position was 1.017.
- He had a -4.54 win probability added. Compare that to his +5.37 last year.
- As is obvious given how poorly he pitched, compared to 2008, he walked more batters, struck out less, gave up more hits, allowed more home runs, had a higher BABIP, and left fewer men on base.
Basically, there was nothing good about 2009 for Brad Lidge. Even his slight resurgence in the playoffs was ruined by his blowing Game 4 of the World Series after the Phillies had tied it up in the 8th and looked to finally have some momentum against the Yankees.
Unlike 2008 when the Phillies won the World Series in large part because of Brad Lidge, in 2009 the Phillies made it as far as they did despite Brad Lidge.
And yet we've got him for another 2 years at $11.5M each year with a $12.5M club option (with $1.5M buyout) in 2012. So the Phillies have to hope Lidge can turn it around and be somewhere closer to 2008 and nowhere near 2009.
Early projections are favorable. Bill James projects Lidge to have a drastic turnaround in 2010 to a 3.40 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. And ZIPS isn't as favorable, but still sees a rebound to a 4.29 ERA.
Phillies fans have to believe that there's some truth in the James' and ZIPS' forecasts if for no other reason than that dead cats bounce. Because another year like 2009 will tear out our hearts and darken our souls. And we just can't take that again from this silly game of baseball.
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…and as many of us were expecting, it was revealed after the season was over that Lidge had been pitching with an injury. Lidge’s struggles were certainly one of the top 10 stories of the 2009 season, but a bigger story, in my opinion, was Manuel’s stubborn refusal to make the necessary change. I mean, he had to have some knowledge of the injury, and even if he didn’t, the result certainly should have suggested that something was wrong and that a change should have been made some time around mid-May.
Let’s hope the top 10 story of the 2010 season isn’t the teams failure to address the closer role in the offseason. As David notes, if he doesn’t return to form, next year is going to be painful.
by Boundforbeach on Dec 3, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t really know. We have a deep and talented team. But when the season ended, you had to think that our biggest problems in 2009 were the bullpen (closer) and a big bat off the bench. The offseason is far from over, but we haven’t addressed either. What we did get so far is a 37 year old Castro, Schneider, and probably Polanco. The third base problem was created by our own questionable decision to jettison Feliz, which to me is even more questionable if Polanco is not a significant upgrade. All I’m asking is have we really improved? The team seems to have a great deal of faith that Lidge will rebound. Maybe he will. Maybe he won’t. I’m just sayin I’d rather have a good backup plan in place in case he doesn’t.
by Boundforbeach on Dec 3, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
Or Mathison (sp?) maybe. Rumor has it they might be interested in Putz too. That might be a good low risk/high reward guy (assuming they sign him on the cheap, which is no sure thing).
by philiafan14364 on Dec 3, 2009 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think the decision to jettison Feliz is questionable at all. Polanco is certainly a much better hitter than Feliz. Not sure about defense, but even if Polanco’s a little worse in the field, I think there’s a very strong likelihood that that will be outweighed by his clear offensive superiority.
If you have a deep and talented team and your two biggest problems in the off season are closer and bench bats you’re in pretty good shape and maybe don’t need to improve all that much going into the following season (see the World Series appearance). All things considered, these two positions are fairly low impact ones when you consider how many wins or losses they actually play a part in – these games just seem more important because they were close and dramatic.
Signing a relief pitcher like Brad Lidge to a long term deal was a significant risk, regardless of how well he was pitching in 2008. Pitching out of the bullpen is ALWAYS fickle with the rare exception of having hall of fame talent. Absent Mariano Rivera circa 2000 being available as a free agent, any significant amount of money spent on ‘upgrading’ our bullpen will likely be wasted money. We have guys that should be good. Unfortunately, the way bullpens seem to work, thats about as good a position as we can place ourselves in.
Who should he have changed to? The best option Myers was on the DL and Madson struggled a little in the role as well. If Myers were healthy the decision to change would be easier, but with no obvious alternative, hoping Lidge could turn it around in May or June, just doesn’t seem that egregious to me. Now if you want to argue for Madson in August or September, I can’t argue with that.
I never looked at his ’09 numbers to realize it was that bad.
Anyone. Literally ANYONE in the bullpen would have been better than Lidge. By May it was quite clear that he didn’t have it. You can obviously still “hope Lidge turns it around” in May or June, but he should have been trying to turn it around in a lower leverage situation.
The whole “we had no better options trope” is problematic because it relies too heavily on the problematic conventional wisdom about the closer role. Sure, Lidge may have the “closer mentality” (if such a thing even exists), but even with his “closer mentality” he was the worst relief pitcher in baseball while practically every other guy in our bullpen WITHOUT this elusive closer mentality would have been a better option.
by FuquaManuel on Dec 3, 2009 11:37 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
rec’d, for using “trope” in a sentence :)
by Boundforbeach on Dec 3, 2009 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
I’m still bitter Lidge didn’t let on to this, especially given he had a long-term guaranteed contract, could have gotten the surgery mid-season, and potentially made it back to the playoffs.
If any good comes of this, I hope that whatever organziational loyalty that was invested in Lidge last season as a result of his amazing 2008 is at a zero balance.
One thing about Polanco signing for around $6 million per is that it becomes a near lock that they’ll sign a “name” pitcher. I think it’s likely that guy is a late-inning reliever who either teams with Madson to give them lockdown setup help or steps in for Lidge if he doesn’t bounce back.
I’m never a big fan of overpaying for relief help, and this is doubly true when you have minimum-salary, high-upside options as the Phils do with Mathieson, Bastardo, et al. But there is a logic to it.
With one month in hindsight, it is truly amazing that the Phillies made it to game six of the World Series with Lidge as a closer. It would take years of Strat-o-Matic simulations to garner the same result.
What goes up...
…must come down. Brad Lidge’s perfect 2008 season is one of those things that fans of the game will talk about before adding, “But he really went downhill from there.”
And the eighth and final rule: if this is your first time at Fight Club, you have to fight.
Maybe in baseball stat circles, but certainly not in Philadelphia. He gets lifetime folk hero status for 2008. World Series don’t come around here every year. Oh wait.
by Wet Luzinski on Dec 3, 2009 10:18 PM EST up reply actions
That WPA swing is incredible.
Replace 2008 Lidge with 2009 Lidge on the ‘08 Phillies and they win 82 games and finish in fourth place. On the other hand, replace 2009 Lidge with the previous model on this year’s squad and they win 103, tied with the Yankees for best record in baseball. Whether it would have mattered in the postseason is an interesting question, of course.
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