Peanuthead II: The Return! Polanco signs with Phillies.
by dajafi on Dec 3, 2009 10:56 AM EST
159 comments
UPDATE (1:33 pm): It's official.
Sounds like the Phillies are closing in on a three-year deal to bring back Placido Polanco as their third baseman. Todd Zolecki puts the terms at three years, $18 million with a mutual option for a fourth year. Polanco, 34, won a Gold Glove for the Tigers last year--as a second baseman. He hit .285/.331/.396 in 2009, and is a .303 career hitter. Of course, Polanco played for the Phils in 2002-2005, coming aboard in the Scott Rolen deal and leaving three seasons later for Ugueth Urbina.
My first reaction here is despair--well, actually, it's self-flagellation for suggesting that it might be time to trust the Phillies. On its face, this just doesn't make a lot of sense: the team is about to overpay for the decline stage of a player with very little power or speed, being asked to shift positions no less--all while two clearly better options, Chone Figgins and Adrian Beltre, remain on the market. That said, if both of those players receive deals for three years or longer, and get paid upwards of $10 million a year, the Polanco contract makes some sense. But those are big ifs, and even if true it doesn't make the Phils a better team on the field in 2010.
0 recs |
159 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Polanco is an OK player. This isn’t ideal, but I can live with it. (But is he a Type A? If he is, that could change my view.)
I think we can see one thing about Ruben’s personality: he’d rather err on the side of being aggressive and moving too early than being passive and moving too late. (I’m not certain whether or not that fits with his old reputation as the ultra-confident Epstein from Welcome Back Kotter. On one hand, it’s aggressive, but on the other hand, it’s also sort of a low-risk/low-reward strategy.) Anyway, I think patience would have been the better policy here just like last year, but sometimes this tendency will work to our benefit too, if he’s consistent with it.
On the other hand, he showed very good patience last July during Halladay-palooza. Maybe that tendency only applies to FAs and not trades. Who knows.
I think this is right. He was out in front of the market last winter with Ibanez, and now again with Polanco. What annoys me a bit is that I think there’s a good chance Beltre follows the Kyle Lohse path from two winters ago: crazy demands that nobody meets, time passes and teams find other answers, and finally he signs a one-year make-good deal for an absurdly low price. If some team winds up getting Beltre in February for one year, $7 million, I’ll be pretty upset about our Polanco deal.
^ This. Yes. Yes. Yes. I’m almost praying Beltre and Figgins sign huge contracts. If somebody waits them out and gets them on the cheap, I’m going to puke.
by Boundforbeach on Dec 3, 2009 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
Theoretically, that could be us if we were sly and made Polanco are super utility player for a year. That would be expensive, but a dream come true
by Clyde Simmons on Dec 3, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
It would be great for us, but can you imagine how pissed Polanco would be, to be relegated to that role against his will in both of his tours of duty in Philadelphia?
I see the situations as entirely different this time around, because “super-utility” could function here as a near-everyday player, spelling Utley and Rollins, who needed playing time when he was here the last time, but now need more rest this time.
If we could get an upgrade over Dobbs, or even have a return to career-average Dobbs, he could have an exalted Swiss-Army knife kind of appeal.
Still, egad, the money makes me throw up in my mouth to the degree that my enamel is now degraded.
by Wet Luzinski on Dec 3, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
While I would be upset if Beltre signs on the cheap in February, did the Phillies have that luxury to wait around? Ruben did not play Ricciardi’s games in July and I’m sure he wasn’t going to play Boras’ games here with a major position of need unfilled, especially when he has other positions of need on the pitching staff and bench.
He could have waited and ended up significantly behind the curve.
I would have preferred Beltre and certainly dislike three years for Polanco, but I can’t fault Amaro for not dancing around with Boras when he has other things he has to do.
Polanco’s splits are interesting. We at TGP know of course that the Phils’ “struggles” against lefty pitchers are much more myth than reality, but Polanco really does hit southpaws better: 80 points of OPS for his career, 15 in 2009 and it seems likely that it would have been much more except for some bad luck on balls in play. He’s much more of a power threat against lefties.
His splits are really interesting—for their tremendous consistency as well. But as I mentioned above with playing him defensively, given that both his SLG and OPS are .070 higher vs lefties than vs righties, Manuel would have to give some consideration to moving him around in the lineup beyond just 7 or 8.
So this boils down to paying for more offense, more roster flexibility, and for comfort level with a known quantity. It’s old home week in Philadelphia sports! Trotter-Iverson-Polanco.
by Wet Luzinski on Dec 3, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
Boucher as well, if you wanted to go for the quad-fecta.
(Is quad-fecta a word? Screw it, it is now.)
Someone last night, can’t remember which poster and where, referred to it as the sports version of “I Love the 90’s”. I found that amusing.
700 Level, I think. At least that’s where I saw it. Very apt.
Oh, and Zolecki says the deal’s officially official.
I meant Martino.
I should really pay more attention when I’m doing these things.
He’s worth the extra 500k/yr
Look, the Phillies made the playoffs 2 years in a row despite Feliz. He’s a solid contact hitter. Can hit pretty much anywhere in the line-up. He’ll be on base about 25% more than Feliz ever was. He’s not a power hitter, but that’s not what this line-up needs. This signing should relieve the Phils K/9 a little bit.
It’s a definite upgrade, but not the answer to another championship (pitching…).
by Phils 2036 World CH on Dec 3, 2009 1:45 PM EST reply actions
strikeouts
They were 9th in the league in strikeouts. They scored the most runs in the league. Strikeouts are not a problem.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Do you keep this pasted on your notepad for all of the “Phillies strike out too much” comments? Might be a good idea…
It just aggravates me that “The Phillies strikeout to much” is tantamount to an article of faith among parts of the fanbase.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
I also have this pasted for just such an occasion...
The Phillies were actually 6th toughest to strike out (out of 16) in PA’s per Strikeout. You can’t just look at total strikeouts because the Phillies scored more so they had more plate appearances than most teams. I know, it’s still frustrating as anything when they strikeout with a man on 3rd an <2 outs, so I’m glad Polanco will improve that a bit.
On the standpoint of making the best available move, it looks like Palanco is just that. Beltre will demand too much for ok offense and great defense. Figgins is totally out of the picture, too much money. Palanco hits a .341 in the bank, while his strikeout/bb percentage is far superior to Feliz. The only thing I worry about is Palanco’s defense. The offense is definately there, and is what seems to be the best upgrade over Feliz on a Financial basis as well
It’s a great deal, no way Polanco will be playing that 3rd year as a starter though, its more of the fact hes getting paid. For two years of what he offers at 3B, I am all for it. Great signing by Ruben, now lock up Lee!
I’ll agree he’s not their 3B in three years (and I think it’d take a minor miracle for that option to kick in). The question is did they frontload the deal so they’re not paying 6 mil to a bench guy? Or are they planning to trade him in his age 37 year to a team that needs a 2B?
Why wouldn't they bench him for 6 million
I mean its a stretch of a claim but Jenkins was 10 million bench player….
by Ant on Dec 3, 2009 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
They could
But that wasn’t what they envisioned when they brought in Jenkins for $10 mil and I’d hope that’s not what they’re envisioning as a backup plan if this doesn’t work out. I’d hope that given some of the pitfalls of this idea, they’ve accounted for it in the contract in the 3rd and possibly 4th years.
Of course, they didn’t do this with Ibanez, so I might just be overly optimistic here.
It’s not like we’d be better off if we frontloaded. We’d still have to pay the same amount of money in total anyway. In fact, we’d have to pay more if we frontloaded because of the time value of money.
The only way frontloading helps is by making Polanco more marketable in a trade later on in the contract. But even that’s unnecessary – it would make more sense to address that problem by entering into a side agreement with the team you’re trading with, to take on part of the remainder of the salary.
Eh.
I didn’t mind the idea of Polanco as a 2-year stopgap if Beltre fell through, but targeting him above the other guys with a 3-year deal wasn’t exactly what I had in mind.
Part of me is just happy that he isn’t Mark DeRosa, who I thought would be an unmitigated disaster. Polanco should profile fine at third base defensively, and his offensive production for the next year or two should remain steady in the .290/.335/.400 range. No great shakes, but an upgrade over Feliz in all likelihood.
My problems with the deal are the third year, and the fact that Ruben seems to once again have jumped the gun with the market still taking shape. I mean, how many mid- to late-30s players can you add before it starts to blow up in your face?
Pretty much agree, but perception is an issue here as well. If Figgins and Beltre had already gotten signed to big fat deals, we’d all be pretty thrilled with this signing. But they are still out there, so we’re all sitting here left to wonder what may have been.
But I’m farily sure Ruben has some idea that those guys were seeking big money (Beltre has Boras after all), which is probably why he targed Polanco. But we’ll never know if waiting it out might have been the right play.
by Boundforbeach on Dec 3, 2009 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
plus beltre isn’t a sure thing. polanco is almost never injured. the phillies much rather take the sure thing at a position where they don’t need huge potential to drive in runs or hit for power.
umm….I don’t think you can slap a mid 30’s guy with the label ‘durable’. Past performance not always indicative of future results, especially with athletes in the later stages of their careers.
Agreed.
Also, I hate this lazy idea that “Beltre isn’t durable.” He spent time on the DL last year, but his games played totals from 2002 to 2008: 159, 158, 156, 156, 156, 149, 143. That’s more than Polanco, even just looking at the seasons he’s been a full-time starter, i.e. since 2005.
Not really, the Phillies jumping on Polanco could change the entire way the market plays out. It the same as watching a game you lost by one run and assuming you could have won if not for that one error or that one hit. We will never know how it would have played out because taking the 3rd or 4th best 3rd baseman off the market will change the way the market plays out. And even if it doesn’t, there’s no way of knowing it didn’t.
That why I said we’d “have an idea,” not that we’d know for sure. Our signing Polanco could impact the market by driving it up. It probably won’t impact the market by driving it down. If Beltre and Figgins are still hanging out there in March begging for deals, then they probably would have been there if we hadn’t signed anyone this early as well.
well, here’s some idea, at least for Figgins:
Sources indicate the Mariners have offered $32 million for four years or $27 million for three years. Figgins is apparently asking for $36 million for three years.
The Angels are thought to have bid $24 million for three years.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/12/03/mariners.figgins/index.html
by Boundforbeach on Dec 4, 2009 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
I too am glad he’s not DeRosa, bit I would have liked to have seen how long Tejada was sitting out there. Big Head counts as a tweak, not an upgrade. We got to the WS with Victorino hitting out of the #2 hole…the speed at the top was menacing. Dropping Victorino down to a 6/7 platoon with Raul achieves nothing, IMO. If you want to shake-up the lineup, drop J-Roll down and let him swing free with guys on base…
by Steve @ MLB Fantasy Prospects on Dec 4, 2009 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
i like this move
i think you can move shane down to 6 or 7 in the lineup. our lineup looks so much better this upcoming season:
Jimmy
Polanco
Utley
Howard
Werth
Ibanez/Shane
Ibanez/Shane
Chooch
Don’t care what anyone says, Placido gets on base and plays solid defense. He’s an upgrade on the bases over Feliz, and maybe in the field too (we’ll wait and see).
We were really just looking for a player that we know what we’re going to get from to have a solid addition to the lineup and Placido gives us that.
He isn’t that good at getting on base. His lifetime OBP is .348. That’s not bad and it’s certainly a lot better than Feliz, but it’s nothing spectacular either.
still gives us way more flexibility in our lineup. I mean its not the greatest player ever, but you know what you’re getting with polanco. Signing Beltre or Figgins would be too expensive for players who haven’t been consistent throughout their careers. We needed a solid upgrade and that’s what we got. Now if we could sign say Joel Pinero….
He's a contact guy...
Very few strikeouts. Put Shane #1, have him get on base more than Jimmy, and chances are Polanco would move him over.
As opposed to Feliz
who would boldly ground into a double play.
by Aphilfan on Dec 3, 2009 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
how can you say that when you haven’t even seen him at the hot corner in philly yet? he’ll have the range, a second basemen covers more ground than a third basemen. his career uzr is 9.9 at 3b and he just won a gold glove last year
Well, simply because the man is not a third baseman. He may work out fine, but check out his defensive stats – it’s fairly apparent that he has never been consistent at that position. His ‘career UZR’ seems irrelevant to me when you look at his statistics season to season.
I hope just as much as you that he’ll be great. But Pedro was a consistently above average third baseman for us. That will be unlikely out of Polanco.
I addressed Polanco’s defense below, but I think saying that “he has never been consistent at that position” is disingenuous.
He’s played parts of 4 seasons at third base (since UZR figures became available). 3 of those were 21 games or less — small sample size warning there — but for whatever it’s worth, 2 of those were positive. More importantly, the year he played 131 games at third — his largest sample size — he posted a 7.8 UZR/150.
That being said, I certainly agree with your overall point that he won’t be better defensively than Feliz. But I think it’s plausible for him to be fairly close, seeing as Feliz has slipped the past few years, and I don’t think there’s any way he’ll be below average.
I’ll expect some slippage. Still, if we’re comparing him to Pedro, he’ll be 37 at the same time, so I expect the same slippage there.
And it seems to me, intuitively at least, that guys will age better defensively at third base than most other positions. Read-and-react position and all that, but seriously, I can’t imagine his instincts or sure-handedness will plummet like his straight line speed, and some slippage in the latter won’t affect him a ton at the hot corner.
Does not need to be
He needs to be a quality fielder, which he is. Any short comings his bad evens those out.
We don't play stats, we play baseball.
why do you have Rollins at the top of that lineup?
C’mon…2010 is the year Chollie breaks himself of that habit, right?
Victorino
Chooch
Utley
Howard
Werth
Ibanez
Polanco
Lee/Rollins
Rollins/Other SP
Oh, and as for Polanco's defense....
Not so much here, but I’ve seen concerns in some corners that he won’t do well at third base. I know he hasn’t consistently played there in awhile, but all the evidence points to him being fine at the hot corner…
His career UZR at the position is 11.7 in 322 games, good for a 9.9 UZR/150.
Tom Tango’s Fans Scouting Report has good news, too. Third base is a read-and-react position, and Polanco scored a 4.4 on reaction/instincts and a 4.8 on hands/catching. The only concern is his arm strength, which grades out as 3.3. Still, 3.3 is basically the same as guys like DeRosa, Chipper Jones, and Garrett Atkins, and his 4.6 throwing accuracy means his arm shouldn’t be a Wes Helms level problem.
He won’t be as good as Pedro, but Pedro was slipping a bit anyway.
Yessir.
By the way, it may seem intuitively crazy to trust something called a “Fans Scouting Report,” but over the past couple of years it’s actually shown to be pretty darn accurate. I wouldn’t encourage anyone to use it as their only source, but in conjunction with UZR, Plus/Minus, and whatever other defensive systems that may emerge, I think it can be a valuable tool.
Any thoughts on the validity of his methods? Even if you take the mean of ratings made by often erratic, emotional fans, you don’t necessarily normalize that data.
No worries. For what it’s worth, Tango explains his reasoning here, and I think it’s pretty sound. Obviously there’s likely to be some noise in the data, but that’s true with any system.
He also reveals his fatal flaw. A baseball fan growing up in Montreal? Sounds like a Kids in the Hall sketch.
In the “wisdom of the crowds” vein, Fangraphs has started fan projections for 2010 offensive output (clicky). If you want to waste some time, that’s pretty fun.
this move makes little sense hes not better than pedro at fielding and only slightly better at hitting
eff you we winning anyway
dude, what are u talking about – only slightly better hitter? polanco is one the best situational hitters in the game, pedro, one of the worst……and if you check career fielding % @ 3rd, polanco is better…
What he's talking about
Polanco 2009 OPS+: 89
Feliz 2009 OPS+: 81
That’s what I call “slightly better”
by David S. Cohen on Dec 3, 2009 9:12 PM EST up reply actions
OPS understates the gap between Feliz and Polanco, because the difference is all in on-base percentage. Although Peanut Head no longer has much power, he can still go out there and post a .350 OBP, which is gonna be worth quite a few runs over Feliz struggling to break .300, which I like to think of as the Mendoza line of OBP.
Shane
Polanco
Utley
Rollins
Howard
Werth
Raul
Chooch
Would Howard in the 5 hole be that bad of an idea? Either way, that lineup looks slightly more well rounded than it did with Pedro.
eww jimmy as cleanup? are u on crack???? you’re going to have shane polanco and utley get on base for JIMMY ROLLINS to pop out? if you’re going to go crazy with the lineup you should just do this
Polanco
Shane
Utley
Werth
Howard
Ibanez
J-roll
Chooch
Switch Shane and Polanco...
and you might be on to something…
Jimmy as cleanup because Im assuming he wont repeat his career worst season. Obviously if hes still popping up every other AB we dont leave him in there.
by philiafan14364 on Dec 3, 2009 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
Okay, my take...
It’s not the greatest move, but it’ll suffice. Placy is a contact guy who can move runners over whether he gets a hit or not. His defense won’t be atrocious, though I’m not expecting a Gold Glove either. The length and cost are a little high, but looking at the market for next year (and seeing Aramis Ramirez and Garrett Atkins as the 3rd Base headliners) I think this’ll work out all right.
I will stab you in the throat
If you call him Placy again. Polly is also verboten.
Thanks.
Just a note, the discussion here has been much more pleasant now that we have been freed of jemagee’s unwelcome and unrelenting assholery.
No, he vowed never to post here again because he thinks we are intellectually inferior to him (or some such blather). I say good riddance.
he was mentioning it the other day at LB because he believes if one person’s opinion (mostly his) was said and then someone else repeats it then hes totally stupid, doesn’t read the site and just wants a post like a forum whore
by Ant on Dec 3, 2009 7:39 PM EST up reply actions
Jemagee was banned from Bleeding Green Nation. Think he just needs a friend…
by Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 on Dec 4, 2009 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
I kind of liked Jemangee…I thought he was funny, even if he was arguing with me.
by Clyde Simmons on Dec 4, 2009 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
"he thinks we are intellectually inferior to him"
So instead he argues with people on Liberty Ballers about whether or not the Sixers should have signed Iverson (which clearly was the wrong move).
I think the real reason is that he had had enough of Taco Pal tearing him a new one, but thats just my opinion : )
by philiafan14364 on Dec 4, 2009 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
Or in his words, accused Taco Pal of “stalking him.” Too funny. I’m sure Jemagee will be back with a vengeance.
by Boundforbeach on Dec 4, 2009 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
"accused Taco Pal of 'stalking him'."
Oh the irony
by philiafan14364 on Dec 4, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
About a week or so ago. I believe the exact comments were something like “find someone else to stalk….” Of course, it was preceded by an F-bomb and very unkind remarks. One of the blog lords removed it…
by Boundforbeach on Dec 5, 2009 7:16 AM EST up reply actions
On another note now that we have the 3b locked up,…. How does everyone feel about our pitching opportunities?
Do we go after Valverde? Soriano? How about a Starter? Piniero? Harden? Sheets?
I'd take any of those starters...
Maybe Soriano for a decent price… as for Valverde hes going to cost too much
by Ant on Dec 3, 2009 7:38 PM EST up reply actions
Not a big fan of giving the Braves our first round pick
by philiafan14364 on Dec 4, 2009 12:18 AM EST up reply actions
i'd love to get piniero
finally a real sinker ball pitcher for a good infield defense at cbp?!!? PLEASEEEE
Great Day!
I posted a month ago that we should get Polanco when he was not offered arbitration, because he would be the best option for the money. I also like Placido because like Victorino he’s got heart and he loves this team. He WANTS to play in Philly, and Charlie and the Phil’s strategy is to sign people who want to be a part of the team and put out with all their heart. It’s what gets him onto Rollins more than others, because Jimmy is the spark plug for the team, and when he’s loafing the team falters.
We don’t want or need to develop a Yankees clone mentality in Philly. We will always be the underdog to the Bronx Bombers. That’s what makes us special. We are the working man’s team. New York is the Man O’ War of baseball… we are the Sea Biscuit that attracts all the hard luck guys.
Polanco will give us everything he’s got for three years, and if his third year he’s our utility infielder we will have an awesome utility man and a great team as well!
by Fillyfaninforeignland on Dec 3, 2009 9:11 PM EST reply actions
I think he is right in this case, as much as I dislike Cliches
by Clyde Simmons on Dec 4, 2009 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
Why not?
Our World Series window will eventually close, my friend. I don’t have a problem with the Phils throw big, short-term money at Beltre or Tejada to play 3B. I’m a fan, why do I care about how much they spend? I only get concerned when they throw out big money with long contracts…that’s too much risk. Polanco playing 3B into his late 30’s to me is unrealistic. I love the way he plays, but I’d rather have Feliz’s arm and glove than an few extra hits here and there, if that was our only option. I’m not sure what we gain by dropping Victorino down in the order when his getting on base made up for Rollins struggles at the plate all last season. This move was about payroll and draftpicks. It could work out, but as a fan, I could give a hoot whether they are saving money.
by Steve @ MLB Fantasy Prospects on Dec 4, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
as a fan
i’d rather them spread out the money and sign relievers and maybe a starter yet in the off-season so why not save money in one area where you can sign a solid player? Also, i’d rather see the success long term of a franchise than in the short term. I plan on being a Phillies fan for life
Feliz
Now we can wait and see what Feliz is offered elsewhere and if he’s offered little money we can sign him back as our utility guy. Then when he plays third we can have Polanco spell Utley at second with no drop-off in power or defense, and Chase will not be gassed in the second half of the season.
by Fillyfaninforeignland on Dec 3, 2009 9:16 PM EST reply actions
Not a bad contingency. Polanco also spells Rollins. As the contract progresses my hunch is something like this will likely be more routine in 2012. Feliz should consider this deal, though I continue to insist he was hosed a little last year simply because he wore out and Dobbs blew/was hurt/ couldn’t spell him. Or, maybe he’s been doing this throughout his career.
The main problem with this is that both Polanco and Feliz hit lefties better than righties. I’d rather have/sign/trade for/develop someone who hits lefties.
by Wet Luzinski on Dec 3, 2009 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
That would be a great call if he could be had for only a few mil, but he will be taking a serious ego hit.
by Clyde Simmons on Dec 4, 2009 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
this makes nooo sense to me
when you still have Beltre out there on the market. Wouldnt it help if the Phils put on their poker faces again, and try to go after Beltre or DeRosa, and if both of them decline to come to Philly, pick up Polanco. I would never in a million years think that Polanco would get scooped up before Figgins, Beltre, and DeRosa. This deal is not worth it in my mind, plus we are paying all of this money for the downside of his career!
My Miami Dolphins webpage is www.playoffboundsports.wordpress.com Come on over and join the discussion.
Check out these Dol-Fan t-shirts at http://problogstores.com/ppr/shop?c=80008!!! Dol-Fans Unite!!!
We got an upgrade you whiners!
Hey guys! We got an upgrade at 3rd base for a little more money. We were paying Feliz 5 million right? Who can argue we haven’t improved already from last year when we went to the WS for the second straight year?
Amaro knows how to spend money. This wasn’t overspending. Time will tell, just like Ibanez. I had to listen to all you whiners last winter crying the blues on that deal when it was obvious we had a better deal than Burrell. We are movin’ up man! Go Phils 2010!
by Fillyfaninforeignland on Dec 3, 2009 10:34 PM EST reply actions
Fits the need
we needed a third basemen with a better upside than Feliz . That is what Polanco brings, his fielding won’t be a liability and his bat is certainly better. We needed a quality third base men we got one . Would I have liked to get Beltre yes, an all star would have been icing on the cake. But we need pitching more than third base man. Lack of pitching hurt us in the series I would rather land another SP than spend money on Figgins or Beltre .
We don't play stats, we play baseball.
I agree. Let’s go sign us some strong BULL to go with our starting pitching!
by Fillyfaninforeignland on Dec 3, 2009 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
Amaro vs. the market
As I wrote earlier, my fear is that Beltre and Boras will misread the market, keep their demands absurd for months, watch potential suitors go in other directions, and wind up signing a ridiculously team-friendly contract in February or March.
But if you’re Amaro, I understand not wanting to play that game of chicken: you’ve got a championship-caliber team where the goal isn’t to make a huge change, but just to find a slight upgrade who fits in and doesn’t bust the budget. He obviously felt like he was getting a quality player at a reasonable price. I don’t love this signing, but I also don’t believe this contract is as out of line with expectations based on the market or as risky as the Ibanez deal a year ago.
Good thinking. He’s also in a bit of a catbird seat economically, with a full new ATM of a ballpark, merchandise $$ better than ever, and three going on a likely 4 or 5 years of consecutive playoff appearances in the midst of a Great Recession. Nonetheless, he’s still a second-tier banana to teams that print money like the Red Sox and Yankees. My hunch is that as long as this economy blows, Amaro’s real opportunities will come at the trading deadline, where there’s less likely to be a bidding wars against teams with deep pockets. There are about 20 teams out there that had a tough summer filling seats. Some might endure 1-2 bad seasons, but not 3, before they’ll have to cut costs.
by Wet Luzinski on Dec 3, 2009 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
If anyone waits it out I think it’s the Angels. It would be low risk for them to wait out the market. If Beltre, Figgins and DeRosa all sign elsewhere they can call up Brandon Wood and sign a low cost veteran as insurance (Feliz?). They have a security net in Wood. If the market took off on them, it wouldn’t be the end of the world. If the market took off on Amaro, he be stuck with a year of full time Greg Dobbs.
Interesting note from FoxSports
The Phillies contacted Orlando Hudson and asked him if he’d be interested in a move to third base (he said no).
After mulling it for a day...
This is a good enough move. I don’t really like Polanco much and I was happy to see him leave, but there are several factors that make this good enough move.
A bird in the hand: Sure, the Phils could have waited it out and seen what was being commanded for Figgins/Beltre. Are those guys REALLY good enough to wait on? If Polanco was snatched up during that time, then what?
1 mil a year too much: I’d give Polanco 5 mil a year (remember when Bell was going for 4 mil?), but while 1 mil a year might seem like a lot to you and me, it is nothing with respect to whether you get your player or not.
The Phils have nobody in the minors for 3rd: Polanco ain’t blocking Utley. There was a real difference between the players there. Polanco is likely to give us just as good of a season as any other player we’d have put at 3rd. The fact that we actually signed that player instead of missing out completely (as does happen) is better than missing out completely.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
Also of note...
MLBTR links to a Buster Olney piece that details the apparent asking price for Beltre and DeRosa: $10 million a year for the former, and $9 million a year (!) for the latter.
Granted, it remains to be seen what they’ll wind up with, but this at least sheds some light on why Amaro would jump on Polanco so early.
Also, it seems like speculation on his part, but Jon Paul Morosi suspects Figgins will wind up with a 4-year deal “worth more than $30 million.”
Did anyone else see Paul Hagen’s column from outer space in today’s Daily News? He starts out with two reasonable premises (Polanco = decent, Rollins = not a prototypical leadoff hitter) but then ends up far from reality. I particularly enjoyed how he spent the first half of his column explaining that there was no evidence the Phillies were actually thinking about this, then concludes that the Phillies are probably thinking about this.
ARGGHH!!!
[Amaro] wasn’t talking about that kind of structural change, though. He was talking about adding a player who struck out just 46 times in 618 at-bats last season to a whiff-prone lineup.
::facepalm::
http://www.thegoodphight.com
I'll take it
(pasted from above, where it will never see the light of day)
-
The Phillies were actually 6th toughest to strike out in the NL this year, in PA’s per K. You can’t just look at total strikeouts because the Phillies scored more so they had more plate appearances than most teams. I know, it’s still frustrating as anything when they strike out with a man on 3rd an <2 outs, so I’m glad Polanco will improve that a bit.
Oh, geez.
Mariners are about to sign Figgins for 4/$36M.
There’s a lot of factors that go into these things (maybe Figgins wants to stay on the west coast, maybe the price to come to Philly was too high w/ the draft pick, etc.) and I wasn’t as high on Figgins as some others were, but I thought he’d get a lot more than that from someone. This makes the Polanco contract look worse by comparison.
9 mil a year... wow
Still I’d only want Figgins for 3 years with the mutual option for 4 like we have with Polanco
by Ant on Dec 4, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
I really like the Polanco signing. I think that it was just a very good deal for the money, which really matters— because whatever Ruben’s budget is, he can do better with the savings of signing Polanco and a reliever or risky high-upside starter than just keeping Beltre or Figgins. My thinking was that Figgins would get 5/$50 and Beltre would get 4/$44. if those numbers change, my analysis changes. Figgins supposedly got either 4/$36 or 5/$45. I’m neutral between Figgins at 4/$36 and Polanco at 3/$18 with a mutual option.
Here’s the reason. The statistics being used to measure Polanco’s future productivity are not understanding that he fell victim to a BABIP illusion last year. When a player’s BABIP falls, it needs to be because there was a change in their batted ball rates (Ground Ball%, Line Drive%, Fly Ball%, and Pop Up%) or in their BABIP on those batted ball types. There are certain kinds of changes that are fluky and certain kinds that are not.
It’s useful to check out a few other statistics that correlate here. Strikeout rates, contact rates per swing, ISO, HR rate, Swing% at balls in and out oft he strike zone. Each of these was the same or marginally better in 2009 than in 2007-2008. No significant difference though.
Polanco had relatively similar batted ball rates, so his BABIP fall in 2009 was a result of changes in BABIP on certain types of batted balls. Ground Ball BABIP is a mixture of rate of hitting balls to the outfield and getting infield hits. If Polanco was slowing down, we would see him getting fewer infield hits but that actually went up. However, he hit fewer ground balls to the outfield. This would be a problem if he was hitting the ball weaker or making worse contact (indicating a problem with his swing where he was just hitting the top of the ball and chopping it into the ground a lot). With his line drive rate, contact rate, and power the same, it seems unlikely that Polanco would abandon rates of hitting ground balls to the outfield about 21% of the time with a sudden drop to 16% that would stick (league average is 18%). He should go back to hitting 20-21% of ground balls to the outfield and getting hits in the infield as frequently for now (early part of deal, can’t assume this will stick).
Line drive BABIP fell for Polanco in 2009. He’s not a power hitter but line drive power does correlate with power, so a drop in line drive BABIP would seem to come with a drop in ISO or HR rate. Since it hasn’t, I think he’ll get those hits back, though still be no better than average at BABIP on line drives.
Fly ball BABIP correlates with hitting the ball hard, and not hitting shallow pop ups. His pop up rate stayed neutral and his power stayed neutral, so it seems likely that he is spreading the ball around the outfield as well as he used to. He is also not seeing much difference in Pull/Center/Oppo percents either, meaning he probably really is spreading the ball around.
The drop in BABIP to .295, very average, just does not seem right for a solid contact hitter who spreads the ball around the field and rarely pops up. He seems likely to post around a .319 BABIP next year according to my model. That should push him up to something like .305/.340/.420 in our park, which would be about 5 runs above average for a third baseman.
Pedro Feliz on the other hand seems likely to fall off a cliff and I am incredibly relieved that the Phillies did not sign him. His BABIP rose last year when he should have seen it fall based on this type of logic.
I don’t doubt Beltre and Figgins are better players, but for the money difference, you can add pitching help and be better off.
Polanco seems likely to put up average defense at third base and when you factor all of that in, Polanco should probably be worth about 2-2.25 wins above replacement level next year, which would be good for about $10.5MM. The following year, given his age, you figure that would drop to maybe 1.75 wins, worth about $8.5MM. He will probably drop further to maybe 1 win the following year, worth about $5.5MM then. So the deal is worth about $24.5MM, plus the option is unlikely to help but could very well help— but Polanco could turn it down too. It couldn’t hurt, add $0.5MM in for effort. That’s $25MM of value for $18MM. Good deal.
I suspect Beltre is worth about 4/$44 and Figgins (after adjusting for draft pick compensation) is worth about 4/$44 or 5/$47. I think the Phillies made out well here and can use the savings for pitching.
this
Nice post as usual Matt. This is where I fall, with stats galore to back it up. Boras is a bubble who needs a big pin, and moves like Amaro makes are the only solid way to deal with him, so I like the eff-you this sends to him. Plus I feel like as time and opportunities present themselves over the next three years, there is way more contingency/versatility with Polanco spelling Rollins and Utley if Amaro finds or develops the right 3B prospect or trade prospect in the midst of a cratering economy. The flipside is what you note at the end—if he can plow the savings into pitching, he will have had a nice offseason.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Next Game
Milwaukee Brewers
@
Philadelphia Phillies
Friday, Sep 3, 2010, 7:05 PM EDT
Citizens Bank Park
Mostly cloudy,rain. Winds blowing in from right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 85.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
