Seven Systems Project the NL East

(Update: I've fixed up the Braves roster, updated the Baseball Prospectus projections, and replaced Sean's own Chone projections' standings rather than my approximation of his methods)

 

Unsurprisingly, winning the World Series did not seem to make the Phillies the NL East favorites.  The magic bullpen fix that fat men in jerseys on the subway told Omar Minaya was necessary to fix the Mets’ problems apparently did the trick of fixing the Mets, according to the media and Vegas traders.  The Mets currently have a 9% chance of winning the World Series according to Vegas and the Phillies only have a 6% chance of repeating.  Last week, Baseball Prospectus released their projections for the Phillies.  Their projections are proprietary, but there standings’ projections are not, so I will post those here with a link:

 

Baseball Prospectus Standings (updated based on recent edit by Clay Davenport):

 

TEAM

W

L

NYM

90

72

PHI

87

75

ATL

85

77

WAS

75

87

FLA

69

93

 

I did projections for the Phillies, Mets, and Braves, and while I do not entirely go by a formula, I highly doubt I was systematically biased.  I do not think their projections for the Phillies were very far off at all, but I think that Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system was way off on many Mets and Braves players.  I think that Baseball Prospectus’ system is spitting out insanely high BABIP projections for many Mets hitters—for Beltran and Reyes, for example, they project higher BABIPs than any of their BABIPs in the last few years.  Rather than questioning all of their methods here, I will simply post my standings for the projections I did, and some implied standings (based on my roster guesses, which probably does not affect the numbers much if I am wrong for a few bench players) for many other projection systems, all of which put the Phillies in first for 2009.  Then I will summarize my projections for the Phillies, Mets, and Braves.


MattS’ projections for the Phillies, Mets, and Braves:

 

TEAM

W

L

PHI

90

72

NYM

87

75

ATL

80

82

 

As for the other projection systems…

 

CHONE projections for the Phillies, Mets, and Braves (I've replaced with Sean's actual projections for these, since he seems to have a systematic way of doing this, and may very well be more appropriate):

 

TEAM

W

L

PHI

87

75

NYM

86

76

ATL

86

76

 

ZIPS projections for the Phillies, Mets, and Braves:

 

TEAM

W

L

PHI

91

71

NYM

88

74

ATL

85

77

 

Marcel projections for the Phillies, Mets, and Braves:

 

TEAM

W

L

PHI

90

72

NYM

90

72

ATL

89

73

 

(This actually had the Phillies at about 90.4 and Mets at 90.3, so it’s still technically true that the rest of these systems all had the Phillies ahead.)

 

Ron Shandler projections for the Phillies, Mets, and Braves: (these are proprietary but that website is where to get them)

 

TEAM

W

L

PHI

95

67

NYM

92

70

ATL

84

78

 

Bill James projections for the Phillies, Mets, and Braves: (these are proprietary but that website is where to get them)

 

TEAM

W

L

PHI

93

69

NYM

92

70

ATL

91

71

 

 

(here, the Braves did finish a few points ahead of the Phillies).


Also, none of these Braves’ projections except maybe for Baseball Prospectus, including Kawakami, their new pitcher who does not have MLB or MiLB stats yet.

 

All in all, this average to:

 

TEAM

W

L

PHI

90.4

71.6

NYM

89.3

72.7

ATL

85.7

76.3

 

Looks like another photo phinish.

 

I updated my Phillies projections a little bit (actually, just for Rollins, up a little bit, since he was the only one who seemed to significantly look different afterwards) based on a slightly updated version of the model that I did on a blog that I am now also writing for called StatSpeak.net, but here are my Phillies, Mets, and Braves projections that led to the projections I got above.  I do think that the Braves are a bit more of a risk than my numbers are saying, only because their outfield is such a gaping hole that I think if they are close near the break, they will have a huge ability to improve by bringing in even an average couple of outfielders.

 

PHILLIES:

HITTERS (AVG/OBP/SLG)

 

Ruiz: .266/.348/.370

Howard: .265/.358/.547

Utley: .291/.375/.505

Feliz: .264/.309/.429

Rollins: .291/.351/.462

Ibanez: .280/.340/.468

Victorino: .281/.339/.434

Werth: .266/.360/.478

Coste: .279/.328/.432

Paulino: .272/.324/.390

Dobbs: .275/.320/.467

Bruntlett: .243/.315/.328

Jenkins: .246/.300/.394

Stairs: .254/.340/.416

 

PITCHERS (IP/ERA)

 

Hamels: 206/3.45

Myers: 190.2/4.11

Blanton: 197.1/4.83

Moyer: 200.1/5.08

Happ: 171.1/4.83

Lidge: 67.2/3.19

Madson: 80.1/4.26

Romero: 41.1/3.70

Durbin: 74.2/4.70

Eyre: 58/3.72

Condrey: 70/4.89

Park: 98.2/4.65

 

METS

 

HITTERS

 

Schneider: .258/.332/.338

Delgado: .260/.337/.443

Castillo: .281/.360/.337

Wright: .301/.381/.518

Reyes: .293/.350/.454

Tatis: .275/.350/.460

Beltran: .281/.365/.496

Church: .252/.330/.424

Castro: .243/.305/.421

Murphy: .284/.346/.424

Evans: .258/.309/.393

Reed: .242/.277/.335

Cora: .234/.310/.314

 

PITCHERS

 

Santana: 234.2/2.76

Maine: 140.1/4.10

Pelfrey: 178.2/4.48

Perez: 186.1/4.65

Redding: 179/4.83

Rodriguez: 66/2.73

Putz: 55.1/3.58

Sanchez: 58.1/3.70

Feliciano: 56.1/3.36

Stokes: 59/4.27

Muniz: 51.1/4.73

 

 

BRAVES

 

HITTERS

 

McCann: .300/.356/.509

Kotchman: .291/.338/.435

Johnson: .295/.358/.450

C. Jones: .334/.422/.521

Escobar: .301/.367/.421

Diaz: .280/.315/.399

J. Anderson: .250/.294/.328

Francoeur: .261/.305/.409

Sammons: .232/.335/.411

Prado: .298/.354/.398

Infante: .261/.307/.386

Blanco: .243/.360/.322

B. Jones: .263/.306/.401

 

PITCHERS

 

Vazquez: 211/4.27

Lowe: 202.1/3.74

Jurrjens: 191/4.43

Kawakami:156.2/4.65

Glavine: 122.2/4.70

Gonzalez: 44/3.89

Soriano: 48.1/4.10

Acosta: 55/4.25

Boyer: 67/5.10

Logan: 50/4.86

Moylan: 50.2/2.84

Bennett: 81.1/3.98

 

 

It seems like I regress a bit more to the mean on my projections than most systems.  I think that I am somewhat bearish on Ryan Howard for once, and I am certainly very bearish on Delgado and a little bit on Pelfrey too.  I also have virtually no confidence in anyone in the Braves’ outfield or bullpen.  Keep in mind that if you predict a team’s abilities perfectly, random chance will send them five wins or more in either direction half of the time.  So really the Phillies odds of winning the division are probably less than 50%, but given that the NL East has about a 33% chance of having a wild card, I would approximate our playoff odds at 65% or so, making our odds of repeating approximately 8%.  It sounds low until you think about what 8% odds of a dynasty might sound like.  If I ask who won the World Series in a random year, most baseball fans might not know or remember the answer, but most fans remember the teams that won back-to-back World Series.  I’ll take 8% odds of that.

 

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