I’m fairly sure the Phillies have a policy of only retiring uniform numbers for Cooperstown HoF inductees. So the questions are basically parallel.

That said, if I were to rank the current Phillies and their likelihood of entering Cooperstown, considering all factors (age, performance so far, expected future performance, etc.), I’d probably go like this:

1. Utley
2. Hamels
3. Howard
4. Rollins

I’d peg Utley as about 30% likely to be a Hall of Famer; Hamels around 20; Howard and Rollins less than 10 each. Nothing mathematical here, just my hunch.

Way down the list are guys like Lidge (longshot; probably would enter as an Astro), and Moyer (also a longshot; probably would enter a Mariner).

I think Rollins has a better shot than 10 percent, and I’d probably put his odds up near Utley’s.

His top Baseball-Reference comp is Sandberg, followed by Alan Trammell, Roberto Alomar, and Bobby Doerr—two Hall of Famers, one guy who’s probably going to make it (Alomar) and another whom I think should be in there (Trammell). Jeter, a shoo-in, is further down the list.

He’s got an MVP, two Gold Gloves, three all-star appearances and a Silver Slugger. He’s regarded as a leader, maybe the leader, of a championship. He’s never missed a huge chunk of time. Assuming the normal career arc, he should finish with more than 2500 hits, 1400 runs, 200 homers and 400 steals.

Between the career numbers, the hardware, and the rep, at the least I think he’ll be a good subject of argument.

Just wanted to point out that Utley is only 1 month younger than Rollins while Howard is only 1 year younger than the both of them. So, I am not sure why it would take Utley and Howard 5 more years to have their numbers retired, especially when I would assume that Rollins would have the longest career…

1Hamels
2utley
3rollins
4howard

@ Neduol Caz- I agree that it probably would not be 5 years difference if they all were retired. I only said that for dramatic effect of the whole 10 year, 15 year anniversary thing. Theyd probably all be retired the same year. If not a year apart. Still Rollins HAS been playing a lot longer and does have more wear on him (recent Utley injury not withstanding).

@ All- all valid points, which begs the argument, is Jimmy Rollins a Hll of Famer? Not in our eyes but in the eyes of the voters?

Correct me if I’m wrong, butI think thank Grover Alexander and Chuck Klein are listed with P’s as they played in the dasy before #’s.

How about putting JD’s name up there with a little “battery” symbol?

Talent-wise, yes. And he’s already taken a big step toward the sort of “legendary post-season ace” rep that probably will get Curt Schilling to Cooperstown.

But it’s just impossible to tell about health and durability. Cole has 38 big-league wins through age 24, which is great. 15 more seasons averaging 15 wins each would get him through age 39 with 263 wins. That’s probably good enough. But it’s a huge “if” just owing to health, run support, relief behind him…

To suggest the nightmare scenario, Steve Avery had 58 wins, 20 more than Cole, through his age-24 season. He had 38 more for his career. Hamels’ peripherals are much, much better than Avery’s were, but that comparison still gives a sense of what could go wrong.

(waits to get struck by lightning…)

Possibly with the addition of Lidge if he sticks around for several more years and continues to post lights out performances.

The problem Utley and Howard may have is the late start of their careers…but if Utley continues to do what he’s been doing, he may very well retire in the realm of the greatest second baseman of all time behind Rogers Hornsby…Howard would need to get closer to his MVP season to really make me think of him having a shot at the HoF – I don’t know how realistic it will be for him to get to 500 homers…

As for Rollins, he compares very respectably with past ss in the hall, so that’s good. And Hamels definitely has the talent to be everything and then some, he just needs to get lucky a bit and stay healthy…

In my opinion, there is no way Howard makes it to the hall of Fame. In fact, it is a joke to even consider the possibility. The few skills that Howard possesses are in raking up overrated counting numbers like HR and RBI. Unfortunately, he will most likely not even make it to the HOF credential levels in those statistics because of his late start. I mean, the man is 29 years old already. Given his build, long, slow swing, and horrible defense, how many more productive years does he have left? Also, there have always been 4 first baseman in baseball that I would have taken over Howard in Pujols, Teixera, Berkman, and Gonzalez. Also, there are other first baseman like Youkilis, Morneau, and Cabrera whom could be argued are better than Howard. In my opinion, Howard will be the 8th best 1st baseman in ’09, which is far from a hall of fame player.

any shot he gets in?

The real question here is which current Phillies will make the Phillies Wall of Fame. I’m betting the people in charge of the wall breathed a big sigh of relief when the Phillies won the WFC—when the pickins get slim down the road, they can always throw a WFC role player up there (Eric Bruntlett, Wall of Famer?)