Moyer Is Unprojectable

by David S. Cohen on Feb 27, 2009 10:05 AM EST Comment 5 comments

From Baseball Prospectus about their PECOTA predictions this year:

Jamie Moyer’s card has been removed. He’s too ancient and weird for us to predict any aspect of his performance this year with PECOTA. Our official fantasy advice would be: don’t draft him.

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Dude, That rules.

by taco pal on Feb 27, 2009 10:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

What’s funny is that they’re doing it this year, in reaction to what happened last year—as I recall, PECOTA spat out a decent projection for him (in the 4.20 ERA range), Nate Silver completely disowned it and predicted he’d get pound it, and then he handily beat it.

Guess this makes it Moyer 2, PECOTA 0.

by bugbear on Feb 27, 2009 12:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Actually

Doesn’t that mean that it’s Moyer 1, PECOTA 1, Silver 0?

by David S. Cohen on Feb 27, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think it makes it…

Moyer 1 WFC, PECOTA & Silver 0 WFC

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Mar 17, 2009 8:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

they projected him btw

it’s pretty unreliable and obviously a hedged projection based on the fact that all pitchers his age fall apart, but it’s 5.16 ERA in 98.1 IP. pretty excellent article by Eric Seidman (phils phan himself) at BP a few days ago about it.

by Matt Swartz on Mar 21, 2009 8:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs