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BREAKING: Phillies, Howard agree to 3 year/$54 million deal.

Per Jim Salisbury / Phillies Zone.

Ryan Howard gets: Security, protection against injury, and hedges in the event his production falls off the face of the planet.

Phillies get: Cost certainty, resolution of sticky labor situation, budget protection should Howard maintain current level of production, or return to 2006/2007 levels, relief from having to pay past Howard's age 32 season.

Howard is a hard player to categorize; to paraphrase blog enthusiast Bill Conlin, in 2008, he was either the worst great slugger in history, or the greatest bad slugger. 

He was likely to get this much aggregate money the next three seasons in arbitration anyway, if not more.  From that perspective, it's a victory for Amaro.

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So this seems like it is essentially a concession to Howard’s demand for $18 million next year, though I am assuming that the deal is backloaded — which means he will make more than $18 million over the last two years of the deal.

On a completely unstatistical and purely psychological level, It will be interesting to see what avoiding arbitration does for Howard’s performance over the next few years.

by FuquaManuel on Feb 8, 2009 12:15 PM EST reply actions  

"distraction"

I was just thinking the same thing. We don’t really have empirical proof of a negative effect, but at least we can assure that it won’t be there now.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Feb 8, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Chip on His Shoulder

Howard has always played with a chip on his shoulder due to his late arrival in the big leagues. Becasue of that, he has been trying to make whatever money he thought he lost.

This deal certainly gets a good portion of that money back. It could perceived as the Phillies conceeding, but the distraction of the public spectacle that is an arbitration hearing cannot be underestimated.

Chris Iafolla http://heardinthecheapseats.com/

by Chris Iafolla on Feb 8, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Sounds like a decent deal.

If he wanted 18MM this year, it’s likely he would want want 22MM next round, and possibly 26MM in the last year (if he wasn’t traded by then). So you would be looking at 3yrs./64MM v. 3/54. All in all I would say it’s a nice safe play by both sides, with the edge going to the FO, since he may still be tradeable 1-2 years from now. On a side note, Ruben Amaro has done a bang-up job after the shaky start with the Ibanez deal.

by vendor71 on Feb 8, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah. After seeing the details, I agree. Good job (yet again) by Ruben to avoid arbitration.

by FuquaManuel on Feb 8, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Wow

What a surprising development.

1. Who knew we could get this excited in the offseason about resigning our own players?
2. Amaro’s got a knack for these negotiations, eh?

by ajay on Feb 8, 2009 1:08 PM EST reply actions  

I’m pretty impressed with this. They’ve locked up their most dangerous hitter at a reasonable price, given his leverage, (only) through his age-31 season, without doing any more damage to his tradability (I’m guessing there isn’t a no-trade clause). Arguably a best-of-all-worlds outcome.

Nicely done, Ruben.

by dajafi on Feb 8, 2009 1:20 PM EST reply actions  

according to the espn article: ESPN Howard will earn $15 million this season, $19 million next year and $20 million in 2011.

by Ben16 on Feb 8, 2009 2:02 PM EST reply actions  

Great news

Glad to have this situation resolved for the next few years. This yearly dog and pony show was not something I looked forward to.

by JasonB on Feb 8, 2009 5:15 PM EST reply actions  

ruby jr. strikes again

well played ruby.
this is great news all around, it shows other players that the phils will take of you if you perform. i love how it locks him up through the rest of his arbitration years, and keeps our core intact and happy at the same time.

by PHIGHTINPHILS on Feb 8, 2009 5:22 PM EST reply actions  

Unless you’re pat burrell

by jemagee on Feb 8, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions  

i'm sure he's happy

we all would’ve loved pat the bat to remain a phillie. he turned down our offers (thinking he would get paid more elsewhere, he was wrong). also by ‘core’ i meant ‘young core’…

by PHIGHTINPHILS on Feb 9, 2009 9:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh – so you believe Phillies propaganda spin?: Cool

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Feb 15, 2009 6:41 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d say the only mistake Ruben made this offseason was the Burrell situation. I’m pleasantly surprised.

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by Travis Hughes on Feb 8, 2009 7:46 PM EST reply actions  

Amaro

I’m still not a fan overall, but I have to admit he seems to do at least two things well: keep things positive with his negotiating partners (maybe that’s easier after a title, but still), and reach well considered deals with his in-house talent. That’s not a bad couple of core skills for a GM.

by dajafi on Feb 8, 2009 9:21 PM EST reply actions  

Count me as someone who does not like this deal. I like Howard very much, but the Phils do what they do best, give away their advantage. Against one of the strongest unions in the US, baseball has few advantages. One of them is arbitration. The ability to give a series of 6 one year deals to an emergine player has significant benefits. I was critical for them buying out Utley’s arb years at a premium, but that was better than this because at least you got post arb years at a price you feel like you can manage.

The Phils gave up 3 2 year deals for what, to pay Howard at a premium for a declining body fo work? This isn’t locking him up at 10 mil a year. This is one of the riches per year contracts in all of baseball. If you were doing it to make him happy, why? You have him for 3 more years. Happiness only comes into play when he is a free agent. This deal is 9 million too much. 3 years at 15 per would be decent. Howard hedges against him imploding more and the Phils know they won’t have to go to arb with him at all.

I don’t mind players getting paid. I do mind my organization just caving in.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Feb 9, 2009 9:10 AM EST reply actions  

Looking into your crystal ball, then, what is your best guess as to what Howard’s salaries in the next three seasons would have been (assuming he went to aribtration all three years)?

Steve Jeltz
.210/.308/.268
"If you condensed everything I ever did in my career into one game, it looks decent"

by Steve Jeltz on Feb 9, 2009 11:23 AM EST up reply actions  

First, Howard could implode or get injured. If that is the case, we can cut or run.

However, considering that Howard is paid like one of the top players in the league right now, there is very little chance he’d get paid THAT much more from arbitration. It’s not a line, it is a hyperbola.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Feb 10, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Assuming Howard hit north of 40 home runs and drives in 115+ (very likely) over the next couple of years, they weren’t going get him for much less than this in arbitration the next 3 years. Now if he explodes for more than that, we don’t have to up the ante.

I, for one, love this deal for the Phils.

by Chris Haines on Feb 9, 2009 6:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Hey, jonk – visiting from LetsGoTribe.

I agree with you. I hate this deal. I can’t see that Howard was going to get more than $60 million, maybe not even $55 million. The Phillies got a 10% savings at most, and the chance of injury or a slide-down in performance is substantial. This was not a smart deal.

I question, too, just how much “tranquility” the Phillies have bought with this deal. Arbitration would have been over in a few weeks. The rumbling will already be there next year for a long-term deal, and by spring 2011, it will be a roar. And if the Phillies are smart, there won’t ever be a long-term deal with Howard. So they basically get one year of “labor peace” in exchange for taking a $38 million risk.

It’s amazing to me that Amaro was the contract specialist under Gillick. He frankly seems pretty unclear on the value of a dollar.

by Jay on Feb 11, 2009 11:33 PM EST up reply actions  

I “like” this deal. It’s hard to absolutely love any deal that involves these kinds of yearly salaries (the fans will be a little more vocal if he comes out of the gates hitting sub .200 in April).

However, I think that the difference between the 54 million he is now guaranteed and the amount he could have earned in arbitration will be close enough that the cost certainty alone makes it worthwhile.

p.s. I think Howard would have been crazy to sign for 3 years, 45 million when he was already guaranteed at least 14 for this year.

Steve Jeltz
.210/.308/.268
"If you condensed everything I ever did in my career into one game, it looks decent"

by Steve Jeltz on Feb 9, 2009 6:30 PM EST reply actions  

Howard wanted 18 million in arbitration

He averages 18 million over the next 3 years

Guys with his body type don’t exactly age well – and he got a late start

Tell me again how this is a ‘win’ for the Phillies? I haven’t read many ‘unbiased’ (i.e. no grudge on either side) writers who think this is a good or smart move for the phillies.

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Feb 15, 2009 6:42 PM EST reply actions  

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