The System Takes Shape

by dajafi on Mar 11, 2009 11:04 AM EDT

As minor-league camp opens in Clearwater, Jim Salisbury comes through in today's Inquirer with a lot of good detail about the Phillies' minor-league system and season-opening assignments for key prospects. A quick rundown of who's likely to startt the 2009 season where:

Lehigh Valley (AAA): C Lou Marson, INF Jason Donald, OF John Mayberry Jr, SP Carlos Carrasco

Reading (AA): OF MIchael Taylor, SP Joe Savery, SP Michael Stutes, SP Vance Worley

Clearwater (A+): OF Dominic Brown, SP Kyle Drabek, SP Julian Sampson

Lakewood (A): OF Zach Collier, SS Freddy Galvis, SS Troy Hansazawa

Among the top prospects not specifically mentioned are catcher Travis D'Arnaud, who presumably will start the season either back at Lakewood or with a promotion to Clearwater. 2008 top pick Anthony Hewitt wasn't given a likely destination, but the now-requisite comments about his rawness suggest a lengthier stay in Florida this spring and a short-season assignment come June. Other 2008 selections who were mentioned but not attached to an assignment were outfielder Anthony Gose and pitchers Jason Knapp, Jon Pettibone and Jared Cosart.

One interesting theme in Salisbury's article is that the Phillies' system might be getting more love from outside observers than from organization personnel:

Ask a handful of educated observers for an appraisal of the Phillies system and you'll get a variety of answers. There are folks who work for the club (they'd rather not go on record) who think it has a serious lack of depth and a serious lack of athletic, position-player prospects.

There are others, however, who like what's going on.

Baseball America annually ranks each organization's minor-league system. From 2004 to 2008, the publication rated the Phils from 20 to 22 each year.

This year, BA rates the Phils 12th out of 30.

"The upper levels are very thin - that's how you get 53-win teams at double and triple A," said John Manuel, BA's editor in chief who focuses on the Phillies system.

"But looking down below, I think they have a nice plan in place. They've got some very good arms. They have some catching, which a lot of teams don't have. They have some 'toolsy' outfielders."

As always, we commend the excellent PhuturePhillies site for year-round coverage and discussion of the Phils' minor-league system.

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Comments

Question: If Mayberry were to start the year in Lehigh Valley, what does the bench look like? What combination of Jenkins, Coste, Stairs, Dobbs, Bruntlett, Giles, Paulino?

by Walcott on Mar 11, 2009 11:39 AM EDT reply actions

I think:

1. Dobbs is a lock
2. I think Bruntlett is a lock because no one else can play short
3. Coste or Paulino but not both

So the real battle would be between Jenkins, Stairs, and Giles for two spots. Since Jenkins and Stairs are more duplicative, I think the Phillies might want to try to trade one of them.

As much as I love Stairs, and as much as Jenkins stunk last year, I’m pretty indifferent between the two of them. Stairs is 41 and Jenkins is a better fielder.

by taco pal on Mar 11, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

I’m pretty much in agreement with tp here, but I do think there’s a chance both that Mayberry makes it—if they can trade one of Stairs and Jenkins, and use the money saved to sign Will Ohman or Joe Beimel—and there might be some possibility (or maybe I’d just like there to be some possibility…) that Giles beats out Bruntlett. He’s a better hitter, and while the shortstop thing is important, the truth is that if Rollins got hurt, Donald would come up anyway.

by dajafi on Mar 11, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

I mostly agree, however, Rollins cannot play all 162 games. Also, what happens when Rollins needs a 3-4 day break due to a tweaked muscle, rolled ankle, hurt pinkie finger or any other baseball ailment? Unfortunately, I think that this means Bruntlett is a lock.

by Neduol Caz on Mar 11, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, there’s Feliz…

But yeah, you’re probably right. Particularly given Manuel’s declared intention to give both Jimmy and Chase more days off this year, Brunt is likely to be safe unless they really surprise me and keep Donald to start the season. That would be kind of fun, but my preference for him would be to play every day at 3b in Allentown.

by dajafi on Mar 11, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Jason Donald can’t play short stop once utley comes back?

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Mar 11, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions

He could. But I think Neduol Caz is saying that Donald will start in the minors, which would leave Brunt as the only guy on hand to make a spot start.

I’m actually not sure how serious I am about occasionally letting Feliz do it, though. For Blanton or Hamels, who are more flyball pitchers, facing a righty (so Dobbs would play third), I think it could work…

by dajafi on Mar 11, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Admittedly I’m not paying too close attention but I thought I read that Donald was playing well enough to cover second while Chase is out and his ‘opening day’ return isn’t guaranteed is it?

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Mar 11, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Not guaranteed, but looking very likely. He could be in exhibition games next week.

by dajafi on Mar 11, 2009 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions

One more note

Salisbury notes in this companion article that Knapp might start at Lakewood.

by dajafi on Mar 11, 2009 11:49 AM EDT reply actions

stutes and worley in AA is very surprising

by jamiethekiller on Mar 11, 2009 12:52 PM EDT reply actions

Well he just said they “could” go there.

by taco pal on Mar 11, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Stairs

I don’t think there’s any way that Stairs doesn’t start the season on the bench. I think he’s someone Amaro seems to indicate was his own pickup (rather than Gillick’s) in August last year. Put that together with his big home run against the Dodgers, and I don’t think the organization will cut bait on him, even if it might be the right decision (which I’m still not sure about).

by David S. Cohen on Mar 11, 2009 2:19 PM EDT reply actions