How many years until the Phillies will "PROBABLY" win another WS?

by phils11 on Mar 15, 2009 4:20 PM EDT Comment 31 comments

OK first a few points/disclaimers/etc.:

My knowlege of statistics is limited in comparison to many of the people on this site- I had been wondering about this for a while and doing this gave me something to do while watching the phillies spring training game. I'm posting this mainly to get feedback from those on here who know more than me- not to convince people to think something or other about the phillies playoff chances, so please be reasonable and don't be a dick if you disagree.
When I say something "probably" will happen, I mean that the chance of this something happening is greater than 50%.
When I say k= the average chance of winning over n years I'm aware that since C(n) isn't linear, average isn't what will give you exact answers, but I believe the difference between the simple average and what would make it exact is negligible enough to where my main points are still valid, so i kept it as a simple average for simplicities sake.

Here we go, For a long time, I had been wondering about this subject, but recently I was reading THE TEAM TO REPEAT? fanpost and read this:

With all of the guys we have locked down for the next few years I whole heartedly believe we can have nice runs the next 3 years, not that we will necessarily win a WS every year, but we should get at least 1 more.

I had heard lots of similar things said and was a little pessimistic as to their accuracy, and so i did some work and this is what I found:

FOR the Phillies to "probably" win a WS in atleast one of the next 3 years, they would need to average at the least a 20.63% chance of winning the WS over the next 3 years.

Since it is VERY UNLIKELY that the Phillies will have a chance of winning the WS that averages greater than 20% for the next 3 years, The Phillies PROBABLY WILL NOT win a WS in the next 3 years.

My Reasoning/Proof:

To judge the accuracy of this claim, I tried to mathematically model the chance C of winning atleast one WS over the next n years, and came up with this-

The chance "C(n)" of the phillies winning a WS in "n" years can be modeled as C(n)= 1- (1- k)^n, where k = average chance the phillies have of winning a WS for each of the n years (see disclaimer 3)

So, using the equation above, the previous statement (the chance the phillies have of winning a world series over the next 3 years is greater than 50%) can also be written as C(3) > .50.

Now we can solve for k to find what the average chance each year would have to be for this statement to be true. Plugging 3 in for n and .50 in for C(n), we find that k > .2063

So for the previous statement to be true, thus for it to be probable that the Phillies win a WS in the next 3 years, the Phillies average chance of winning (k) over the next 3 years must be greater than 20.63%. (Which we've already ruled highly unlikely).

So, It will probably take the Phillies longer than 3 years to win another WS.

This brings up an interesting question, though-

How many more years must go by before the Phillies "probably" will have won another WS?

Using the same formula as before, we plug in .50 for C(n) again and a variety of reasonable values for k and solve for n:

For example:

If k = 10% (or .1), n= 6.578 rounded up = 7 years.

So- If we (the phillies) have an average chance of 10% of winning the WS over n years, it will take 7 years for our chances of winning atleast one WS to be greater than 50%.

The problem with trying to estimate exactly how long it will take for the Phillies to probably win atleast one WS is that any k value that I (or anyone) gives is going to be disputed. SO, rather than me telling you what I think a good k value for the Phillies will be, I'll let you make the decision.

Here is a list of k (and their corresponding n) values- You can complete the following paragraph to complete your estimate:

The Phillies will average a ___% chance, so it will be ___ long years until the Phillies will have probably won another WS.

3.33% (or 1 in 30) chance = 20.45 years

5% chance = 13.51 years

7% chance = 9.55 years

10% chance = 6.58 years

12% chance = 5.42 years

15% chance = 4.27 years

17% chance = 3.72 years

20% chance = 3.10 years

Note: Keep in mind that since there are 30 mlb teams, if all the teams had equal chances of winning, it would take 20.45 years for a team to probably have won a WS.
Thanks for bearing with my boring-math-textbook-esque writing abilities and any feedback.

Poll

How long do you think it will probably be until the Phillies win again?

1 recs | Comment 31 comments

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Comments

this is only simple..

if you built a nuclear reactor or sent a space shuttle off out of your basement.. I hope this is an early April Fool’s joke. I mean why don’t we dig up some ancient artifacts ands ee what Indiana Jones thinks about this?

PS I tried to keep my comment light hearted. When the other guys see this post, if I were you..well just don’t read the comments. What you don’t read won’t hurt you

Marc Gross

by phillyfansportstalk on Mar 15, 2009 4:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

First off I just want to say this was in no way a shot at you or anyone in that fanpost, that comment just made me curious and prompted me to look at the topic more closely.

2nd- i’m fine with being completely wrong about this- i was just bored on a sunday afternoon watching the spring training game and was curious with a calculator on hand

by phils11 on Mar 15, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

curious, though

did you put an effort into reading my reasoning, or did you just gloss over everything and goto the poll lol

by phils11 on Mar 15, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is the type of anti-intellectualism from which TGP is supposed to be a safe haven.

by FuquaManuel on Mar 15, 2009 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Rec’d for truth.

Look, I haven’t been a member here for very long, and I don’t post with reliable regularity. I don’t think I’m considered a “regular”, just a lurker with a screen name.

However, I love reading here because of the objective, thoughtful analysis. The Good Phight is lucky to have posters like MattS that are blessed with the gift of statistical inclination, and are able to analyze and break down the game and the Phillies from a completely objective standpoint. I enjoy the myriad posts from WholeCamels, FuquaManuel, dajafi and others for this reason.

The folks that run this site and contribute to its terrific content subscribe (for the most part, I think) to this sentiment as well. While this may come off as less than accommodating to newer posters, or those with different perspectives, it’s the way things are done around here. Disagreements happen, but sooner or later people have to realize that it does not behoove you to go “against the grain”.

People have different opinions, but many others agree. Sorry for the rant, but I had to get it written down somewhere. Thanks, and flame away.

by Walcott on Mar 15, 2009 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no... I read it

unfortunately, that was 10 minutes I will never get back…I thought I was reading a college text book… I will almost always take the humorous approach, whether I agree with a point or not. This stuff is supposed to be fun. In all fairness, your post took an analysis that was ‘fun’ and turned it into a course in quantitative analysis.. That is just my opinion. I am still having fun…but other responses you get to this may not be quite as light hearted.

Marc Gross

by phillyfansportstalk on Mar 15, 2009 7:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

dude

phillyfanssporttstalk, this is a site dedicated to the phillies and looking at the phillies and baseball in a quantitative way. this is an awesome fanpost,and i, for one, really liked it. if you think this is too quantitative, go back and look at the blogs that i’ve written over the past year that i’ve been here. there are far more equations and numbers in those, and if you don’t want to read it, that’s fine, but i don’t think you’re going to find much agreement here when you think this is not worth writing. lots of us like to read this stuff.

in response to the article, i think about this a lot, but the problem is that the odds don’t change every year— a few years ago, i realized that the team would be good for a few years and probably would have a 5-10% chance of winning each year for the decade, so they would probably have a better than 50% chance of winning a World Series this decade. but the problem is that as every year passes, the odds of winning again remains the same. in fact, if you hold the view that i do that after 2011 our odds go way down, the odds are going to drop over time and the expected time until next championship is getting longer. what you write is a good analysis, but it never makes me feel better because the time to championship remains the same. you never reach the horizon…except last year i guess.

by Matt Swartz on Mar 15, 2009 8:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I follow you..

to about here

but it never makes me feel better because the time to championship remains the same. you never reach the horizon…except last year i guess.

And why couldn’t you take the 2011 dropoff into account?

by phils11 on Mar 15, 2009 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you can and i have. fair point. i guess i meant that the distance never seemed to get closer until this past october.

by Matt Swartz on Mar 16, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is only simple… if you built a nuclear reactor or sent a space shuttle off out of your basement.. I hope this is an early April Fool’s joke. I mean why don’t we dig up some ancient artifacts ands ee what Indiana Jones thinks about this?

in all honesty phillyfansportstalk, while this is the first time i’ve written something like this and posted it, i’ve been reading the blog for almost a year now. I put it out there for responses from people like MattS and others who know the value that numbers and statistics has- Not for responses like that.

When the other guys see this post, if I were you..well just don’t read the comments. What you don’t read won’t hurt you

That is just my opinion. I am still having fun…but other responses you get to this may not be quite as light hearted.

And if you have some disagreement with my analysis please say it, but I really don’t need to be warned about being flamed by the people here, especially when people have taken more issue so far with your responses than with me.

by phils11 on Mar 15, 2009 11:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I enjoyed this diary and, like others have noted in the comments, I always appreciate thoughtful attempts to think through baseball questions using a quantitative approach.

That said (and this is not a criticism of phils11; if anything, it’s a criticism of me…), I have no idea how to answer the question posed here. The way I might attempt to determine an answer is by placing the 30 MLB teams in a number of tiers, based on my sense of their likelihood of winning the Series this year, and then adjusting for the next few out years by consideration of core players’ ages, likely organizational financial circumstances, and strength of farm systems.

Obviously, the further out you look, the shakier those assumptions get, to the point that by 2012 it doesn’t seem insane to imagine the Padres and Pirates battling it out in the NLCS. (Think back to March 2005 and imagine someone telling you the Devil Rays, as they were then called, would win the pennant in 2008.)

I agree—at least pending news about Hamels—that the Phils are in the top tier of contenders for 2009. They’ll probably be in there next season as well, given the age of the core, the financial boost they’ll get in 2009 from winning it all last year, and the expected maturation of their potential impact prospects like Taylor and Drabek, who could show up in Philly late next season. But I’d have very little confidence looking to 2011, and none at all for 2012 or beyond.

All things considered, the safe bet is probably that nobody on the current Phillies roster will still be with the team the next time there’s a late-October parade down Broad Street. But that conclusion isn’t much fun, is it?

by dajafi on Mar 16, 2009 2:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

bored

So who’s in your top tier?

Without crunching any numbers, I say there’s a good 8 in 10 chance that the World Champs in 2009 will be one of the following:

AL: New York, Boston, Tampa Bay, Anaheim

NL: Philadelphia, New York, Chicago

I was tempted to slide St. Louis in there, too. I like Pujols that much.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Mar 16, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m not sure I’d include Anaheim on the top tier. I think if you include them, you have to include the dodgers, braves, and maybe even cleveland. I think the failure to resign tex knocked them off that top shelf.

by char6587 on Mar 16, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

'gellin

I went back and forth on Anaheim but realized ultimately that, barring a (not-too-unlikely) surprise from Oakland, Anaheim is the class of the division, and in-it-to-win-it and all that stuff.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Mar 16, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey guys..

don’t misunderstand my comments..

I am just not one of those people that feels compelled to use a slide rule to figure out if I think the Phillies are in the mix.

Marc Gross

by phillyfansportstalk on Mar 16, 2009 8:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

to be clear

I don’t think anyone is saying that this is how TGP rolls. I’m not really “one of those people” either; MattS is the quant wizard around these parts, and we’re deeply lucky to have him.

Perhaps the friction here was just misunderstanding a joke, as tends to happen with teh internetz. Let’s not make too big a deal of it.

by dajafi on Mar 16, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great job

The “slide rule” crack is really top notch. Much classier than “calculator”. Next time see if you can work in a “propellerhead.”

by phatj on Mar 16, 2009 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Personally, I use an abacus.

by FuquaManuel on Mar 16, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like to fart out nickles that I ate earlier in the day

and then try and gauge how much less sick I feel, in terms of pi

by Alon on Mar 16, 2009 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no friction here

some joking around and a little friction is generally a healthy thing. Especially when everyone can’t always agree. Believe me, I respect everyone..no joke there…now what goes on in the Eagles blog…well, if you disagree with them you are subject to verbal abuse and threats..

and for all my sarcastic humor, I am not like that…my idea is to exchange some ideas..maybe some chuckles, not to hurt anyone’s feelings And I think I generally accomplish that.

Marc Gross

by phillyfansportstalk on Mar 17, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Phils have an awfully damn good team. Barring catastrophic injury, it’s not so hard to believe we can repeat. This isn’t the one-hit wonders of ‘93, or the Marlins of ’97. These guys are all in their primes, and we’ve got them signed for the next three years.

by Red_October on Mar 20, 2009 10:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Can The Phillies win another in 3 years?

Well look at the statistics used in this article pretty good from a mathematical point of view BUT now lets look at reality…Almost the same group of players mostly young and hungry for more….SO reality says that the experience has made them ready for the challenge and their manager ready to lead them their again too…most likely this year.
If your not a fan than your a critic and disbeliever if you don’t figure in the REALITY into your probability considerations! So we shall see and come October we will know for sure!!

by Edfromphilly on Mar 21, 2009 5:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

FInally!

Somebody who understands REALITY!

by phatj on Mar 21, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

REALITY ftw

just kidding.. but my main point here is that if you think that it’s likely for the Phils to win another WS in the next 3 years, you must, then, believe that they’ll roughly average over a 20% chance for these next 3 seasons individually.. For example even if they you give them a 20% chance in 2009, 20% chance in 2010, and 15% chance in 2011, they probably will not win a WS from those 3 years (the chances they would win would be 45.6% if those were the odds, all of which are incredibly almost absurdly optimistic IMO)

by phils11 on Mar 22, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

just one more thing

these mathematical probablities all go out the window as soon as the teams step between the lines to play…maybe you can say there is a trend in those numbers based on history. the history would include good and bad breaks, and injuries…

And as far as absolute probablities go, why bother playing any games then. do you know every 300 hitter is going to hit 300 every year..of course not. if you thow a penny in the air 100 times does it have toland heads 50 times…I don’t think so…

It just seems simple to me…the team that is playing the best..who has their pitching lined up and healhiest in September will have the best chance to win.. and then you can throw the trends and probablities out the window…
I am not disrespecting anyone else’s opinion..so don’t mistake me here…

This is just how I feel about this

Marc Gross

by phillyfansportstalk on Mar 22, 2009 10:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

oh my god

Excellent strawmen there, really.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Mar 22, 2009 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes!

by phils11 on Mar 23, 2009 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pardon me, but I’m going to disrepect your opinion.

I don’t think you’ll find anyone who would argue that a formula will ever be able to exactly predict the results of baseball games, but that doesn’t mean that probabilities aren’t useful tools even once the season starts. And lest you think that this is only the province of troglodytic nerds keep in mind that pinch-hitting and pitching change decisions are based on platoon advantages, which of course are probabilistic, even if managers don’t look at stat sheets to make the decisions.

To say “the team that is playing the best..who has their pitching lined up and healhiest in September will have the best chance to win” is spectacularly obvious. However, in no way does this mean that trends and probabilities no longer apply. Statistical models are updated continuously so they “know” which teams are healthy and playing well at the end of the season. But this completely misses the point of this thread, which is attempting to predict NOW how likely it is for the Phillies to win another World Series in the next few years.

by phatj on Mar 23, 2009 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this is exactly how i feel, well said. ultimately, there is no formula that predicts what WILL happen. there are formulas to estimate how probable certain events are. if that makes phillyfansportstalk less interetsed in baseball, so be it. some people don’t want to know how the magic tricks are done. but it’s important that decision makers in baseball do know these odds, and for those of us who are fans and like to think about the odds, we find it incredibly exciting to consider them. there’s something extra exciting to me about, say, the 2007 division title, because the odds were so against it. there was something very exciting to me about following the odds of success during the last week of 2008.

no one has a 50% chance of winning this year, so someone is going to outperform the model and win. i find it exciting to consider who has the best odds, and i find it useful to consider our odds when making personnel decisions. if the phillies knew their chances would be higher in 2011 than 2012, they should adjust their decisions accordingly. it’s useful for the team, and exciting for those fans who want to know how things work. some people just like watching magic tricks. others want to know how it was done.

by Matt Swartz on Mar 23, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

these mathematical probablities all go out the window as soon as the teams step between the lines to play

No. They don’t. Do mathematical probabilities go out the window once the dice are in the air? When Adam Eaton takes the mound does all mathematical probability go out the window and he suddenly has as good of a chance of shutting down his opponent as Santana? No. As phatj pointed out, probabilities are used all the time to raise a teams chance for success.

It just seems simple to me…the team that is playing the best..who has their pitching lined up and healhiest in September will have the best chance to win.. and then you can throw the trends and probablities out the window…

So does this mean that EVERY team has the same chance of playing great baseball and having their pitching lined up in September? I see where you’re trying to go with this, but it fails because obviously a team like the Yankees/Phils have a better chance of having their “pitching lined up” than a team like the Orioles/Rangers so probabilities can still be applied.

And as far as absolute probablities go, why bother playing any games then. do you know every 300 hitter is going to hit 300 every year..of course not. if you thow a penny in the air 100 times does it have toland heads 50 times…I don’t think so…

This is obvious and does nothing to help your argument. No ones even approached saying something that could be taken to mean this, and i think you have a complete misunderstanding of what’s being said. Obviously, every .300 hitter isn’t going to hit .300 every year, but does a career .300 hitter have a better chance of getting a hit than Jamie Moyer? (Please say yes….) No ones saying that the team with the better chances is going to win.. I am saying the team with the better odds (as a fact) has a better chance of winning.

I am not disrespecting anyone else’s opinion..so don’t mistake me here…
This is just how I feel about this

You can feel however you like, but your feelings and truthiness aren’t very persuasive.

by phils11 on Mar 23, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you guys make perfect sense

I just don’t buy into that…but just for the raw numbers and formulas you win…hey we are all rooting for the same team on game day anyway, right?

Maybe I am just too far removed from all that statistical analysis you use…but it’s fine…for your purposes. When I come up with my predictions for 2009 in a day or two, I am going to analyze it without all that. I will take each team’s record from last year, and try to come up with some + or – adjustment based on what the team still has, acquisitions and losses. So you guys go by your numbers, I will go by my feel for up and downs of each team..let’s see who IS right!!

Marc Gross

by phillyfansportstalk on Mar 25, 2009 4:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs