The Phillies Fifth Starter Fight: Favorite?

by WholeCamels on Mar 2, 2009 8:53 PM EST

So we're about a week into Spring Training now, and the fifth starter candidates have been through the motions at least once. How does it look so far?

	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K
J.A. Happ	5.0	4	2	2	1	1	1
Carlos Carrasco	5.0	3	5	3	2	1	6
Chan Ho Park	3.0	4	1	1	1	0	1
Kyle Kendrick	2.2	4	1	1	1	0	0

What does this tell us that we didn't already know? Basically zilch. Carlos Carrasco got torched earlier today, falling victim to his one notable weakness -- his tendency to fall apart in the face of adversity. Apart from this, his raw stuff has been terrific as evidenced by his K/IP and K/BB numbers. He's certainly been the most exciting so far, but also the scariest.

Happ has only surprised me with his low strikeout numbers.

Could there be a better example of a Kyle Kendrick spring outing than that 2 2/3 inning stint last weekend? He got eight outs and allowed four hits, but no walks and no strikeouts. Kendrick seems more and more like the kind of pitcher who, if everything goes right and if he has a strong infield defense, can be a tolerable big league starter. But otherwise, he's going to get killed. He'll probably alternate effective/lucky seasons with dreadful/unlucky ones. He's a less tubby Carlos Silva.

Chan Ho Park is intriguing insofar as we should be able to determine in another outing or two whether he recaptured some of his old effectiveness while in the Dodgers bullpen last year, or if he's really cooked. He seems really dedicated, which is terrific -- I like a player who plays like he has something to prove.

We're going to revisit this battle repeatedly over the course of the spring, but if I had to nominate a favorite so far, it'd have to be Kendrick, probably by virtue of the fact that he has not completely imploded yet.

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Carrasco evidently lost his focus after Bruntlett made a three-base error in CF, opening the floodgates to a huge inning. But I think he came back afterward and threw a scoreless frame to end his day.

He’s 21 (for another few days, at least) and this is his first shot at a big-league job. I don’t think he’s going to win it, and frankly as far as his long-term development, it might be more interesting to see how he responds if he starts the year in Allentown. If he goes down down there and takes care of business, he’s almost assured of getting to the bigs this season.

I still have to believe Happ’s going to get the job. Totally agree with you on Kendrick. I saw his part of the game on Saturday, and it was the same old same old—decent location, no better than okay stuff, middling results. I know he competes and I know he’s still trying to master the second pitch, and hopefully he surprises us. But I’m dubious how much is really there, and if a good trade offer came up I’d want to see the Phils take it.

by dajafi on Mar 2, 2009 10:16 PM EST reply actions

I’m pulling for Happ. I like what I saw out of him last year and think he’s got pretty good stuff. I worry about 3 LHPs though. In reality though…I expect Happ to make it, with Kendrick and Carrasco both seeing some fill-in duty, either for somebody getting hurt or being ineffective. I’m still skeptical of Park and honestly nothing he does in Spring Training can change that.

by Bilzo on Mar 2, 2009 11:44 PM EST reply actions

I’m rooting for Happ—his strikeout stuff makes me more comfortable with him than Kedrick.

Wouldn’t mind seeing Carrasco get called up in June if he is looking good down in AAA and there is a need for him.

by FuquaManuel on Mar 3, 2009 12:40 AM EST reply actions

I like Happ.

I also think he’s going to win the job.

Offense scores runs. Pitching wins games.

by natalys26 on Mar 3, 2009 2:34 AM EST reply actions

“Kendrick seems more and more like the kind of pitcher who, if everything goes right and if he has a strong infield defense, can be a tolerable big league starter. But otherwise, he’s going to get killed.”

Well said, WholeCamels, and this is what makes me nervous about Kendrick. It’s a tightrope act that can fall apart very quickly, and while I’m not ready to close the book on him, I think Happ is the better bet going forward. For what it’s worth, the various projection systems all agree too…

PECOTA: Kendrick (5.22 ERA) — Happ (4.63 ERA)
CHONE: Kendrick (4.89 ERA) — Happ (4.11 ERA)
Marcel: Kendrick (4.71 ERA) — Happ (4.28 ERA)

As for Park… while I appreciate the hard work he’s putting in, his utter inability to retire left-handed hitters borders on Kendrick-esque (LHB .301 BAA even during his bounceback 2008 campaign). Long man and spot starter? Yes. Permanent solution at the back of the rotation? No thanks.

Finally, the knock on Carrasco — as you mention, WholeCamels — has been the mental side of the game, and yesterday’s outing shows why. As dajafi notes, he’s still very young, so it’s understandable… but it should also rule him out of the fifth starter’s spot out of the chute. He’ll get his chance sooner rather than later.

by PhillyFriar on Mar 3, 2009 10:59 AM EST reply actions