The "Ryan Howard Can't Hit Lefties" Myth

by Matt Swartz on Mar 20, 2009 5:46 PM EDT Comment 53 comments

The common groupthink in the sabermetric community right now is that Ryan Howard can't hit lefties. It is a myth, but it gets spouted just as carelessly as talking heads in the mainstream sports media like to make declarations like "ARod is unclutch", "Abreu is lazy", and "Eckstein is clutch." We all know these are false. However, a mixture of an inability to avoid comparing Howard's skills versus lefties from his skills versus righties, and unwillingness to actually look up the numbers has led the sabermetric community to be just as inaccurate and groupthinking as the mainstream media.

Let's replace that: Ryan Howard hits lefties about as well as the average first baseman hits same handed pitching, and better than the average player hits same handed pitching. However, he will mash your righties.

Ryan Howard has a career OPS of .786 against LHP and had a 2008 OPS of .746 against LHP. The average LHB had an OPS of .699 against LHP in 2008.

Now consider the following table. It took me twenty minutes to put together and it's all the research that was needed to disprove the silly point that so many have been making, reducing the story on Ryan Howard from "the best power hitter in baseball, and generally one of the best all around first basemen in the league" to "Ryan Howard really just can't hit lefties". This is a list of all 30 starting 1B for 2008. The last four columns are OPS in career or 2008 against same-handed and opposite-handed pitchers (I treated switch hitters as lefties). It is sorted by 2008 OPS against same-handed pitchers.

Notice that Ryan Howard is 16th out of 28 non-switch hitting starting 1B at batting against same-handed pitchers in 2008, and 15th of 28 for their careers. He is approximately average at hitting same-handed pitchers, and he was 2nd among non-switch hitters for career OPS against opposite-handed pitchers, and 6th among non-switch hitters for 2008 OPS against opposite-handed pitchers.

Hopefully, this disrupts the groupthink, and it took 20 minutes.

FIRST BASEMAN	Bats	car SAME	08 SAME	car OPP	08 OPP
Albert Pujols	R	1.035	1.063	1.089	1.233
Kevin Youkilis	R	0.859	0.946	0.852	1.009
Chris Davis	L	0.916	0.916	0.866	0.866
Mark Teixeira	S	0.935	0.902	0.912	0.994
Miguel Cabrera	R	0.903	0.869	0.989	0.939
Carlos Delgado	L	0.804	0.863	0.982	0.88
Joey Votto	L	0.833	0.862	0.9	0.88
Jason Giambi	L	0.854	0.842	0.979	0.889
Casey Kotchman	L	0.749	0.819	0.749	0.708
Lance Berkman	S	0.801	0.803	1.027	1.057
Ryan Garko	R	0.767	0.795	0.894	0.708
Daric Barton	L	0.831	0.787	0.685	0.629
Derrek Lee	R	0.846	0.785	0.924	0.948
Conor Jackson	R	0.774	0.782	0.893	0.938
Justin Morneau	L	0.739	0.778	0.899	0.928
Adam LaRoche	L	0.767	0.765	0.848	0.87
Paul Konero	R	0.823	0.765	0.901	0.825
Ryan Howard	L	0.786	0.746	1.065	0.966
Prince Fielder	L	0.793	0.733	0.953	0.955
Kevin Millar	R	0.823	0.709	0.804	0.736
Todd Helton	L	0.877	0.678	1.051	0.809
Mike Jacobs	L	0.689	0.677	0.85	0.857
Adrian Gonzalez	L	0.734	0.675	0.888	0.991
James Loney	L	0.744	0.664	0.867	0.815
Carlos Pena	L	0.752	0.654	0.894	0.994
Aaron Boone	R	0.755	0.594	0.747	0.816
Ross Gload	L	0.74	0.589	0.737	0.69
Richie Sexson	R	0.842	0.58	0.878	0.992
Lyle Overbay	L	0.728	0.54	0.838	0.865
John Bowker	L	0.323	0.323	0.751	0.751
Average		0.794	0.75	0.89	0.885

Looks pretty average to me.

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Comments

Totally agree about Howard. He’s a tremendous player.

Totally disagree about A Fraud. There’s nothing clutch about him. Not in October, anyway. Unless you’re counting leading the team in GIDP.

But I digress. When September rolls around, there isn’t a player in the league I’d take over Ryno.

by Red_October on Mar 20, 2009 10:39 PM EDT reply actions

A-Rod’s slash line…

- 1997 ALDS: .313/.313/.563
- 2000 ALCS: .409/.480/.773
- 2004 ALDS: .421/.476/.737
- 2004 ALCS: .258/.378/.516
- 2007 ALDS: .267/.353/.467

Career OPS in September: .919

Clutch stats from BBRef…

- 2 outs, RISP: .889 OPS
- Late & Close: .905
- Tie Game: .971
- Within 1 run: .981
- Within 2 runs: .952
- Within 3 runs: .967

Leverage stats from BBRef…

- High leverage: .975 OPS
- Medium leverage: .958
- Low leverage: .971

Inning stats from BBRef…

- Innings 1-3: .962 OPS
- Innings 4-6: 1.018
- Innings 7-9: .911
- Extra innings: 1.000

A-Rod seems pretty clutch to me.

Crashburn Alley

by Crashburn Alley on Mar 21, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Okay, I’ll ammend my previous comment… I’m sure A-Fraud is clutch as hell in May vs. the Rangers. I’m sure he can mash with the best of them in the ninth inning against Baltimore’s beleagured relievers. Sexy numbers in games that’ve been put to bed by the 5th inning? Sure, Mr. April can deliver the goods.

But since he became a Yankee, he’s 1-4 in playoff series. He supposedly anchors the modern day Murderer’s Row, and they’re 1-4. His averages: .421 in ‘04 vs. the Twins (outstanding), .258 vs. Boston (less so, thanks in part to my man Schill), .133 in ’05 vs. LA, .071 in ’06 vs. Detroit, and .267 in a losing effort vs. Cleveland in ’07. Postseason RBI’s as a Yankee: 8 in ‘04. 0, 0, and 1 in ’05, ’06, and ’07 respectively. In two ’04 serieses, he K’d 7 times. In one series each in ‘05, ’06, and ’07, he K’d 5, 4, and 6 times.

I’d expect more from the most expensive man in baseball. And this says nothing about the circus act his presence brings to a ball club. The whining about the fans, the whining about his team mates, the hookers in Toronto, the yelling in infielder’s ears, and now the HGH… all with national media’s rapt attention. I’m not seeing how he’s Mr. Clutch, or how his presence would makes a team better. It may have at one point, but not anymore.

by Red_October on Mar 21, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I understand how A-Rod is reponsible for all things bad in New York and how only Derek Jeter is good.

But I’m pretty sure Alex Rodriguez doesn’t sign the bad free agent contracts – or cause the injuries – or throw a single pitch for the yankees.

It’s as asinine to blame Alex Rodriguez for a TEAM FAILURE than it is to blame Bobby Abreus fear of walls causing the phillies to only win after he left.

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Mar 21, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I pointed out A-Fraud’s individual failings for the benefit of people who think of him personally as God’s Gift to the Game. I don’t lay sole blame on him for the Yanks’ struggles the past five years (or give him sole credit for it, the way I see it, ha ha ha), but I’m told I’m a fool for not reckognizing his divinity. Why, if only the Phils had A-Rod, then rings would rain from the heavens. Like they did in Seattle and Texas, right? Like they’re doing now in New York? So I point out HIS batting averages. HIS lack of post-season production. Of course, I could go on and on about the Yankee’s entire Team Ship of Fools.

Now, just to get this out there: I don’t like the Yankees. I rarely, if ever, root for a New York team. Furthermore, one of my good friends is a life-long Red Sox homer. That kinda makes me a part-time Sawks fan. Then there’s Curt Schilling (who is on my top-five all time favorite Phillies list) winning 2 World Series’s with the Sawks. Again, that kinda makes me a part-time Sawks fan. So I confess my bias. I don’t like the Yanks or A Rod. But my bias notwithstanding, the man has clearly fallen short of New York’s expectations so far. I don’t hate the man, but I’m definately a skeptic.

by Red_October on Mar 21, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Who here said he was god’s gift to the game? Most people who post here are very rational people who don’t let emotion get in the way of the facts presented to them. Seems like you care an awful lot about A-Rod and what people think about him in general?

As he’s never been in the national league – why do you care so much?

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Mar 21, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I was just making conversation, reacting to the notion that it’s untrue or foolish to presume Rodriguez fails in the clutch too often, as presented in the OP. True, this has been an unintended tandent, but it was mentioned and I simply responded. And I used facts to support my position. I don’t think I’m being overly emotional at all.

by Red_October on Mar 21, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Why would decent Phillie phans defend the honor of a g*d@m Yankee, anyway?

by Red_October on Mar 21, 2009 1:14 PM EDT reply actions

Same reason as a sixer fan I recognize the greatness of Kobe Bryant even though as a human being I find him repugnant and I’m ashamed I went to the same high school he did.

Besides ,the Yankees are in the American League – why would ‘decent phillie fans’ even care? If he played for the Mets, maybe, but I’m not sure why Alex Rodriguez is the poster child for everything wrong with the yankees and baseball – basically – i think it’s just jealousy – fans are jealous of athletes in general because they only wish they could do what the athletes do – they want to live their lives vicariously through the athletes – the wins and losses mean more to the ‘fans’ than they do the players usually – i’ve never really gotten that personally.

If you can’t abstractly and rationally recognize who is good and how isn’t regardless of what team they’re on – that’s fine.

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Mar 21, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I was just being facetious about that “decent Phillie fan” remark. It’s kinda hard to convey that in type without the help of emoticons. :)

by Red_October on Mar 21, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Plus the overly emotional (to me) ranting about A-Rod didn’t really help in the conveyance of sarcasm

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Mar 21, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Again, I wasn’t “ranting.” The things I was pointing out are all true.

by Red_October on Mar 21, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions

If you say so – I saw it differently – I think it was referring to him by the nickname the idiot from ESPN uses daily (he also hates Lebron James) – and blaming Rodriguez for the fact that the Rangers and then the Yankees grossly over paid him – no one forced them to.

Small sample size statistics, name calling, and his salary as an argument tend to feel like rants to me – because those aren’t really valid and or relevant to the point.

Alex Rodriguez is one of the five best players in the game – and if he was starting at 3rd for the Reds tomorrow – would you boo him every time he came to the plate?

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Mar 21, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions

— I call him that because my buddy does. I don’t know who the ESPN guy you’re talking about is.

— Small sample statistics? I’ve pointed out his post-season body of work. It’s legitamate criticism.

— I don’t dislike him for his salary. But the FACT remains he commands these salaries because teams expect him to provide butts in seats and rings on fingers. He can do one. Has yet to do the other. That’s why I will not call him “Mr. Clutch.”

— If he started for the Reds at third, he would probably belt 72 home runs and drive in 300 RBI in yet another losing Cinncinnatti season.

Now I’ve already said I disliked him because I’m a fan of rival teams. But my criticism is very legit, like it or not. You say I’m being too emotional and yet you’re going to spend all these posts trying to convince me that he’s just the best damn player player there is and that’s that! All the while asking me why I care?

How does that work?

by Red_October on Mar 21, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

f he started for the Reds at third, he would probably belt 72 home runs and drive in 300 RBI in yet another losing Cinncinnatti season.

And would you blame the losing season on him or on the lack of pitching depth and a manager who kills pitchers faster than Raid kills bugs dead?

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Mar 21, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions

If it were a Reds thread, I would blame the Reds. If it were an A Rod thread, I would say “we don’t pay you to hit .078 in October.”

by Red_October on Mar 21, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Um, well that’s interesting

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Mar 21, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

BTW – just because you keep saying your criticism is legit doesn’t make it so.

I didn’t say he was the best player there is – I said he was one of them

The regular season is 162 games long – the playoffs at most is 19 games long.

I’m not sure what’s confusing about small sample size.

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Mar 21, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Just because you say it’s illegit doesn’t make it so.

I’m not sure what’s confusing about “Post-season body of work.”

by Red_October on Mar 21, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Extrapolating to define an entire career is what’s wrong with it.

David Eckstein
Robert Horry

These are guys (in different sports) who ‘perform’ in the playoffs to a certain degree and thus are grossly over valued in a variety of areas (in my opinion).

There is a portion of the NBA fan base who thinks Robert Horry belongs in the hall of fame – which is beyond ridiculous to me

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Mar 21, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I was extrapolating to define what’s “clutch” vs. “unclutch,” not weather Mr. Rodriguez was HOF bound.

by Red_October on Mar 21, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

But since you mention it, the playoffs are what it’s all about. Now, I’m not an NBA fan, so I can’t speak intelligently about Horry. But just from what you tell me, he can be called an NBA “Mr. Clutch.” LeBron? Well… not yet. Same thing with Claude Lemieux in the NHL… superb clutch player in the playoffs. He’s got the three Cups with three different teams to prove it. He’s an NHL Mr. Clutch. By no means does that make him a HOFer.

by Red_October on Mar 21, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions

small sample size

small sample size gets thrown around without actually doing the math, but in this case jemagee is definitely not to blame— it’s a fair criticism. if ARod hits .306 overall, that means he gets hits 30.6% of the time. if you gave 147 at-bats (ARods postseason total) to a random number generator, and asked it to give you a hit 30.6% of the time, 95% of the time it would fall in the range of .232 to .380. ARod hits. 279 in the playoffs. ultimately, that’s not proof that ARod is NOT unclutch, but it’s pretty clear evidence that he’d need to hit .230 or so over his playoff career on a consistent basis before any eyebrow can really be raised. if you have visual evidence from a hitting coach that he adjusts his swing in the playoffs, but just the sheer number of line drives that can’t be caught in that time span means you can’t really make a statement on numbers alone. there would need to be better evidence than that. given his 2004 performance, it’s tough to make that case.

by Matt Swartz on Mar 21, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for the compliment on my article, Red October.

I don’t think any of us are particularly fans of A-Rod as a person or anything, but he’s probably the second best all around player in baseball. He has not elevated his game in the playoffs as often as Yankee fans would hope, but if you look through major league history, no one really ever seems to elevate their game consistently in the postseason all that much. There’s just too much luck involved.

If you look through the game logs of those playoff series, you’ll see A-Rod really wasn’t the one at fault. Unsurprisingly, he played worse against better players, but not much so and it looks like he did carry them at times. The Yankees had some bad pitching performances in all of those series you mention, and A-Rod just takes the mainstream media criticism unfairly in relation to how bad some of his teammates were in those games.

“Clutchness” is something that most early sabermetricians didn’t think existed, but of course psychology plays somewhat of a role. Some of the guys who I respect most in the industry have shown that there is such a thing— but it’s small— the type of thing that turns a .250 hitter into a .255 hitter, not a .300 hitter into a .200 hitter. That makes intuitive sense to me. All of these guys had their big opportunity to go from poverty or obscurity to become a multimillionairre, and they all had scouts come in when their family’s future was on the line and performed well enough to get drafted and signed. That’s the real “clutch” situation for the individual— not a game when there is nothing on the line but bragging rights. Everyone in the major leagues is someone who was clutch enough to come through when their family’s future was on the line and succeeded. Within that group, it seems like there is very little difference in ability.

by Matt Swartz on Mar 21, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh yeah, and that

Matt’s much smarter and more eloquent than me

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Mar 21, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I hear ya. So many things in sports are down to mere happenstance. And atheletes have a tougher job than it looks.

But I stand by my statements. I’m skeptical to the idea that A-Rod has the… whatever you want to call it… “make-up,” to carry a team with high expectations on his back. I don’t think he can say to his team mates, “I’ll deliver a game in this series that will swing it our way.”

But as Simon Cowell says, “It’s JUST an opinion.” :)

by Red_October on Mar 21, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions

If A-Rod goes 5 for 5 with 5 2 run home runs and the pitching staff gives up 11 runs – and the yankees lose 11-10, he carried the offense, and the pitching didn’t show up.

There’s a lot more important ‘solitary’ performers in a game than the starting 3rd baseman whose single game performance is more important on any given day.

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Mar 21, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

This is true, but is that what happened against the Tigers and the Angels? 0, 0, and 1 RBI?

Yes, this could all change in the future, but right now I don’t see it. I’m sorry, I just don’t.

by Red_October on Mar 21, 2009 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

But I’m pretty sure Alex Rodriguez doesn’t sign the bad free agent contracts

Yes, he does. His own. Heh heh heh.

by Red_October on Mar 21, 2009 2:47 PM EDT reply actions

Sorry for the shameless self-promotion

…but Red_October might be interested in an article I wrote recently at Baseball Daily Digest:

http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/blogs/2009/03/18/america-needs-to-end-hate-affair-with-a-rod/

Crashburn Alley

by Crashburn Alley on Mar 21, 2009 3:09 PM EDT reply actions

No problem with the self promotion. I do that all the time, and I liked your article.

by Matt Swartz on Mar 21, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m not “jealous” of Rodriguez. I find it remarkable that so many would bristle and attribute personal defects to those who would point out the forest amonst the trees. Especially concerning a man who life has been fairly kind to, tabloids and all.

I’ll put it another way. Would the legacies of Michael Jordan or Wayne Gretzky, with the same career regular season numbers, be the same without the multiple world championships? Are Brady, Bradshaw, and Montana the best QB’s ever without their Superbowls? Are Mark Messier, Lary Bird, Magic Johnson, Dr. J, Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Jerry Rice, Emmit Smith, etc. remembered the same way without their titles? I submit to you they would not be. That’s my point of contention… that Rodriguez has been placed amonst that pantheon without producing one ring. Not one! Not even a FINALLY! ring a la Peyton. And he’s been in baseball for fifteen years now. He’s had ten shots at the post-season. It’s not like he rarely gets a sniff.

Simply put, I put Rodriguez in the same catagory as Iverson, Lindross, and yes, Abreu. Top tier talent, for sure. But unable to bear the mantle of “leader” effectively themselves. That’s not me hating the man, or being jealous. That’s simply rendering criticism that only he himself could put to rest with a post-season performance.

by Red_October on Mar 21, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions

i still feel like you miss the point

the reason sabermatricians keep pointing out that howard can’t hit lefties is because he can’t. the fact that he is league average doesn’t mean that he can hit them. all they’re trying to do is point out that this is a guy who won a league mvp award, and yet he can basically be morphed into kevin millar or adam laroche anytime after the 6th inning with a situational lefty. this combined with his flat out embarrassing defense makes him a very good player; i don’t think anyone is trying to dispute that the guy is a “bad” baseball player, but nothing near the superstar/mvp he gets credit for being. when we then note the fact that he has dropped almost 100 points of OPS vs. lefties in each of the past two seasons it’s certainly not out of line to suggest he is trending toward oblivion with the rest of the briefly relevant no-defense, one-dimensional power 1bs of recent memory.

by tide182 on Mar 21, 2009 4:22 PM EDT reply actions

he can basically be morphed into kevin millar or adam laroche anytime after the 6th inning with a situational lefty.

It’s relative, though. He’s so good against RHP that it makes his LHP look worse than it really is. Being average against a same-handed pitcher isn’t deplorable; often, it’s commendable.

We have our expectations a bit too high for Howard, thus he’s bound to disappoint.

this combined with his flat out embarrassing defense

Among MLB first basemen over the past three years combined, Howard has the seventh-best UZR/150 at 0.9. Mark Teixeira is barely ahead of him at 1.5. We praise Teixeira for his amazing defense but he’s only three-fifths of one play better than Howard per 150 opportunities.

Crashburn Alley

by Crashburn Alley on Mar 21, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions

seven stages

For some reason this post reminds me of the great Seven Stages of Philadelphia Athlete Appreciation… I think it was originally seen on BaseballThinkFactory, but I can’t for the life of me find the original author:

Philadelphia usually goes through seven stages of sports star appreciation:
1) Wonders who he is and where he came from
2) Convinced that he is the best player ever
3) Acknowledges the player’s shortcoming as a footnote
4) Introduces the player with mention of his shortcomings
5) Only talks about the players shortcomings
6) Discusses every player who doesn’t have the star’s shortcomings (regardless of the total package) until the player is traded
7) Wonders how the team can acquire a player with a similar skill set

Looks to me like we’re now solidly in Stage 4 with Howard, and may start oozing toward Stage 5 with another slow start.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Mar 21, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions

There’s got to be some kind of middle ground though – Howard is very good, but he’s got a hole, and it hasn’t exactly gotten better in his career, at least that I’ve seen yet – he’s still in love with swinging at pitches at his ankles. Plus, his late start makes me wary of his long term deal. I’m a fan of his, I think he’s quite good, but he’s not perfect, and at least one of those flaws has been fixable (I would think) and I often wonder why it isn’t getting better…

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Mar 21, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions

As much as I think of Howard, I would love to see him change his approach and raise his average up. Because let’s face it, he goes through stretches where he’s absolutely ghastly. And were it not for the (here’s that word again) clutchness of guys like Victorino (I’ll never understand dangling him as trade-bait), the Phils would be out of the picture.

That being said, Howard is no doubt a special, once-in-a-generation player for us. I certainly appreciate what we have. I wouldn’t trade him for anyone.

by Red_October on Mar 21, 2009 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions

what about for ARod? ;-) just kidding, of course. hopefully that doesn’t start a whole other argument. victorino pops up too much with runners on 3rd to be called clutch in my view. howard’s approach seems to be very specific and when he’s locked in, he’s unstoppable, and when he’s not locked in, i just want him locked in. anything he could do to raise his average would hurt his homerun hitting abilities. he just doesn’t have the contact skill when he slows his bat down that he should do anything other than swing hard in case he hits it. for him, the only approach he should work on might be managing the count better, but i suspect that’s eyesight and reading the spin of the ball rather than patience or impatience at the plate. it seems like he is “patient” when he sees the ball well, which means it’s not a matter of patience at all.

by Matt Swartz on Mar 21, 2009 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions

You know what I love about clutchness – is that the proponents of it tend to define it arbitrarily.

For a guy like victorino – successes are remembered vividly – failures in such situations are often forgotten

For a guy like HOward (or Rodrrgues)- the exact opposite seems to be true.

And as for the phils being ‘in the picture’ – i can think of an entire pitching staff that had a lot more to do with it in toto than a ‘clutchness’ by Victorino.

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Mar 21, 2009 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I confess, I do remember Vic’s grand slam off Sabathia and his home run against the Dodgers in a game that was teetering against us. And yes, I call that clutch, it being our World Series run and all. I also simultaneously remember our excellent pitching staff. I never said they had nothing to do with it. Ryno, Utley, Vic, Rollins, Werth, Hamels, J.C,, Lidge, Stairs, Ruiz, Feliz… they all played a role. They all had clutch moments. When have I suggested otherwise?

As for A-Rod, you’re right. I don’t remember any clutch heroics from him. Why could that be, one wonders? For my money, it’s his one RBI in three post seasons. It’s his four hits since game five of the ‘04 ALCS? That’s fourty-two post-season at bats. Four hits, 12 K’s, .122 slugging. With RISP, he’s 0-7 with 5 K’s in that span. The Phils have made the most of their limited chances, and I call that “clutch.” A-Rod has not made much of his numerous ones, and I call that “choke.”

Now, none of this is meant to dissuade anyone from liking A-Rod. I’m just explaining why I don’t rate him as highly as others do. For me to call a man the Michael Jordan of baseball, he has to win Michael Jordan’s rings. That’s it. That’s all there is too it.

by Red_October on Mar 21, 2009 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions

yes he can

the thing is that he very much CAN hit lefties— better than most people. and his career close & late OPS is .915, so it’s clearly not effecting him much. the point is that while you may not be so polarized in your view of howard, many people really are. joe sheehan of baseball prospectus recently chose adrian gonzalez over ryan howard as a better player, and declared it a no-brainer— so do many other non-philadelphia sabermetricians; instead of looking at stats, they regurgitate this idea that sheehan has been exaggerating the hell out of. the thing is that adrian gonzalez hits lefties worse than howard does. it’s just there isn’t as large a discrepancy since no one mashes righties like howard. nearly any non-philadelphia mainstream sabermetrician has a knee-jerk reaction when they think of howard, “he can’t hit lefties”. it’s something that they don’t say about adrian gonzalez, todd helton, adam laroche, prince fielder, justin morneau and carlos pena, even though he hits lefties about as well as all of them. the fact that he had the year he did facing lefties 38% of the time is proposterous.

the ironic thing about all of this is that if you look through my old articles, you’ll find that i dispelled a myth in one of them that the phillies hit lefties significantly better than righties in 2008— the reason was that howard and utley batted 38% of their PA against lefties. that was so much more than other people that the phillies hit lefties better than righties, purely on the basis that so many of their PA vs LHP came from Howard and Utley and so many of their PA vs RHP came against Feliz and Ruiz. And Howard and Utley hit LHP a lot better than Feliz and Ruiz hit RHP.

also howard, walks too much to be considered one-dimensional. and his baserunning and defense are still well within the range of normal, so it’s hard to hold him for anything. howard also hits for average reasonably well because he hits the ball so hard when he makes contact. all in all, he’s a mixture of average skills and very above average skills.

also, he dropped 100 points against LHP in the last two seasons because he mashed them so hard before. we’re arguing about differences in OPS instead of OPS itself.

by Matt Swartz on Mar 21, 2009 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions

baserunning and defense are still well within the range of normal, so it’s hard to hold him for anything.

This is purely anecdotal, but I’ll never forget seeing Howard’s 255 lb. posterior busting down the line in foul territory as hard as he could and laying out in a belly flop to snare a pop-foul. That’s the kind of heart that gets errors forgiven, if you ask me.

by Red_October on Mar 21, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions

couple of responses here:

first, although his close & late career OPS may be .915, last year it was .643. is this because managers saw how poorly he did against left handers last season and started bringing out their best lefties to face him in those situations? granted thats conjecture, and this year howard will either improve vs. lefties and render the point moot, or continue on his current trajectory and become a liability in such situations. its also something to consider that a) howard might not be the same hitter he was 3-4 years ago and b) that major league lefties have found something that seems to work vs him and will keep going to the well until howard re-adjusts

secondly, again, im not trying to compare howard to middle of the road type guys like a. gonzalez et al. hes not a middle of the road player. as youve pointed out, he mashes righties on an epic scale. the guy is nothing resembling average…as long as he doesnt continue to regress

third, utley is just a great player. so i dont want to bring him into this. and ryan howard, demi-god vs righties, had sure as hell better be able to hit lefties better than feliz and ruiz. ruiz is barely a major league hitter, and neither, frankly, is feliz (career OPS 719).

also, i should concede that perhaps we are too harsh on ryan’s defensive deficiencies. although i dont think he is as high as seventh in most statistical measures as an earlier poster responded, i also dont think he is at the absolute bottom. maybe its bc the errors he makes are just so boneheaded they frustrate me more. i guess thats more of a mental issue though than it is an athletic one – ie that would lead to the precipitous decline i feared earlier. still, i am very very concerned about the fact that he did lose those 100 points each year as lefties, in my opinion, learned how to pitch to him. and isnt the fact that 38percent of his plate appearances came against lefties evidence in and of itself of a pretty clear trend that the opposition has picked out? i would actually be very interested to see how far above average that is, and then whether that ratio is more or less extreme than that of similar star players – ie a pujols, a david wright, a fielder (who i think is most similar to howard), etc.

finally, however, you cant reject my arguing about “differences in OPS instead of OPS itself” if you are going to use the same logic to defend howards ability to hit lefties with his OPS against them. (explaining hte drop “bc he mashedd them so hard before”). howards OPS vs lefties last year was not very good – it was middle of the road for his position, and taken in a vacuum as a hitter it would not be a good enough line to start on a solid team assuming average defense. the fact that he is compared to similarly anemic fellows such as adam laroche does not mean that he is not similarly anemic.

by tide182 on Mar 21, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions

The .643 is just a matter of small sample size; it really is. His OPS against lefties was 100 points above that. That can’t explain the whole thing.

Howard may not be (and probably isn’t) the same hitter he was 3 years ago, but that doesn’t mean he’s not still the best power hitter in the game. It also doesn’t mean he is trending downwards as much as it means that he dropped off a bit.

The average player sees 30% of at-bats against lefties. I don’t know if other players see such ridiculous differences. I’d need to look it up, but 38% does seem high. Briefly looking, Prince Fielder faced 33.5, Pujols faced 30.4 and Wright faced 27.2% lefties. Howard seems to see a lot. At the same time, he draws star lefties away from other players.

I don’t see how I’m breaking my logic. I didn’t look at OPS differences. I looked at career OPS and at 2008 OPS independently. Both ways he came out middle of the road against opposite handed players. Once again, this is a matter of taking something he’s average at and blaming him for not being as the best at that. He is what he is, and overall that’s very good. The focus on one area that he’s mediocre is unwise.

Also, being an average 1B means he would be good enough to start on a solid team assuming average defense. No team is above average at any position. And we’re talking about one of Howard’s weakest areas.

by Matt Swartz on Mar 21, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions

if you needed one guy at the plate to hit a home run, other than maybe pujols, manny, and a-rod (i do not believe “clutch” exists) howard would probably be that guy. so in that sense, i guess i would call him the 4th best “power hitter” in the game. that said, if you told me i had one guy to send up to the plate at the end of the game with the game on the line vs any pitcher the opponent wanted, i dont think id want howard anywhere near that position. his discrepancy between right and left, IMO, is just too big at this point. as such, to me, hes just not an elite player. now, i think the phillies would be crazy to get rid of him, over 162 games hes still clearly incredibly valuable. hes just not as valuable as chase. i mean lets be honest, his OPS last year was 28th in the league – just below jermaine dye and just above brad hawpe. thats outstanding, really really good, but not superstar and not mvp.

my overall point is simply that while howard is very good, unless he changes something this year i dont think he can hit lefties at a level equivalent to an elite player hitting their same-side pitching counterpart, and therefore should not be considered a truly elite player. theres nothing wrong with that, as there are plenty of all-star and WFC spots available to very good players who hit 45+ dings annually.

by tide182 on Mar 21, 2009 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Hold on— if you needed one player to hit a homerun for some reason, and that was the only outcome you wanted, why on earth would you pick anyone other than Howard? He is projected to be the top homerun hitter by everyone projection system there is and has led the majors in homeruns in 2 of his first 3 full MLB seasons! If you want a homerun against a lefty, you still might use Howard if all you wanted was a homerun. He’s been in the top 3 hitters in the majors in HR vs LHP for each of the last 3 years and led the NL once and the whole MLB once in HR vs LHP. I might even take an injured Ryan Howard against a LHP if I was looking for a fictional HOMERUN OR BUST success.

“Elite” is just a word. And it’s a judgment call. Howard is not the most valuable hitter in the league, but you’re creating a straw man that no one agrees with when you argue that he’s not. He’s one of the best 20 hitters in the game, and he’s the best power hitter.

Also, his OPS this year was so low because his BABIP was so low, and that seems likely to rebound given his career norms, at least according to everyone’s research but mine. At the same time, I’ll take the over on my models of Howard’s BABIP because they are actually biased by the outlier of Howard himself seeing such a large BABIP and taking last year’s Howard out of my entire dataset would yield a model that projected him to definitely improve his BABIP. Send his BABIP up towards a normal number, and you’ll get a solid 30 or 40 point jump in OPS.

by Matt Swartz on Mar 21, 2009 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions

because last year:

howard vs LHP: 14/265 PA (5.3)
pujols vs. RHP: 26/446 PA (5.9)
a-rod vs. RHP: 27/427 PA (6.3)
manny vs RHP: 32/503 PA (6.4)

lets call elite one of the top 5-10 players in your league (AL/NL) – i think howard is probably somewhere around the 10th best player in the NL, trending away from that.

by tide182 on Mar 21, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions

that’s not really a statistically significant difference and neither is this:

2007-2008 combined:

howard vs LHP: 30/511 PA (5.9)
pujols vs RHP: 49/931 PA (5.3)
a-rod vs RHP: 74/959 PA (7.7)
manny vs RHP: 43/911 PA (4.7)

It’s pretty silly to do that kind of analysis because the question isn’t who to send up in a homerun derby against a same-handed pitcher. The point is that he does indeed hit some bombs against LHP and he’s not replacement level against them.

I agree— he’s about the10th best hitter in the NL, and just like everyone else above the mean, he’s more likely to regress to it. But keep in mind that declining 2 times in a row is not a trend. He’s more than likely going to be better in 2009 than in 2008, at least if you check with any of them projection systems out there.

by Matt Swartz on Mar 21, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions

you are, of course, correct – i was just throwing something out there that would indicate why i might not want the guy who hit the most home runs up to get me one home run in a mythical situation. regardless, we seem to agree on the most important parts of the discussion, so lets just hope that he can hold steady at around 10th and meet his bounce back projections as opposed to my chicken little consternations…

by tide182 on Mar 21, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions

A-Rod and Bonds

The meme about Alex Rodriguez’s want of clutch is well established. I once had this argument with a possible future Supreme Court justice, Sonia Sotomayor (perhaps best known for issuing the injunction that ended the ‘94-’95 strike), at a party in I think 2005 after she officiated the marriage of one of my wife’s friends… she’s a big Yankee fan (Bronx native), but would be very comfortable with the “A-Fraud” label.

But nobody points out that they said this about Bonds for years and years too. In his first five playoff series, between 1990 and 2000, Bonds put up OPS figures of . 542, .392, .868, .648, and .653. Then in 2002, he suddenly found “it” in the playoffs: in the Division Series he helped defeat the Braves with a .294/.409/.824 line. When the Giants beat the Cardinals in the NLCS that year, Bonds hit .273/.591/.727. Then in the World Series, he almost singlehandedly beat the Angels with a .471/.700/.1.294 line.

Bonds’ career postseason line is .245/.433/.503, and he did almost all that damage in 2002. Of course there are many other things on which to criticize the guy, as we know now, and that’s also true of Alex Rodriguez. But it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if he has that one monster October in him—not because of character growth or anything like that, just because it’s within the reach of his almost unfathomable talent.

by dajafi on Mar 21, 2009 5:28 PM EDT reply actions

But it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if he has that one monster October in him—not because of character growth or anything like that, just because it’s within the reach of his almost unfathomable talent.

Very true, and he needs one. Or else his legacy will be defined by missed opportunities, not his production.

by Red_October on Mar 21, 2009 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Well that’s kind of incorrect. as far as I’m concerned.

HIs legacy seems pretty much already defined (and tainted) by the use of ‘performance enhancing drugs’ – a bumbling press conference and his way too public personal life.

Basically I think his entire career past and present and future is already tainted bad enough

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Mar 21, 2009 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions

The arguments start to swirl

I enjoy watching debates that clearly have no conclusion. Watching a stat-head debate a “watch-the-game” guy is like watching a capitalist debate a socialist. Well, not totally because unlike capitalism/socialism, the baseball ideologies aren’t diametrically opposed, but still, both sides are going to have to be pushed extremely hard to move from their positions.

Futility in motion.

Howard is not a smooth operator on the baseball field. We are naturally going to take a pessimistic view on anything he does when it comes to athleticism. And it’s why we’re naturally reluctant to believe that he’s actually not that bad a fielder. However, he is a bad base runner — worst on the Phillies last year with a -3.5 EQBRR.

The numbers guys are going to buy low on Howard and the “watch-the-game” guys are going to sell high. Neither side is really wrong with their respective decisions, but both are going to end up disappointed. The optimist will not have sold until it’s too late and the pessimist will have sold too soon.

That’s pretty much the story with any star baseball player with some kind of obvious flaw.

Crashburn Alley

by Crashburn Alley on Mar 22, 2009 2:26 AM EDT reply actions