THE TEAM TO REPEAT?
by phillyfansportstalk on Mar 4, 2009 10:21 PM EST
28 comments
The Eagles have taken over as the CHEAP KINGS in Philly. The Phils have put up $135 million to go for another parade.
This team, on paper, appears to be in position to get to another World Series. They did bring back the core of the Championship team..all happy with their contracts.
The starting pitching looks much better this year without Eaton's automatic forfeit every fifth day. As long as Myers, Moyer, and Blanton can be reasonably consistent, we seem to be in pretty good shape in this department.
The bullpen will miss JC for the first 50 games, and Lidge will probably not be able to match last year's perfect season. Madson needs to maintain that velocity he found at the end of last season. Kendrick, Durbin, Park, Happ, and Condrey should be pretty good in long relief. Something we may not need as much of this year.
Defensively, the Phils look as good as anyone in MLB, as long as Howard has improved his fielding enough to avoid being called a butcher.
The bench looks better from the left side with Dobbs, Stairs, and Jenkins, than from the right. Mayberry may be able to provide some pop from the right side.
The starting eight is strong, and particularly, the infield is outstanding offensively, as long as Utley and Feliz can stay healthy.
The catching with Ruiz and either Marson or Coste is more than adequate.
Ibanez will probably have to be moved to the 6 hole against most starting lefties, with either Werth or Victorino moving into the 5 hole for those games. It all adds up to a much better season than last year..and an easier Division title..K-Rod or no K-Rod.
The biggest problem I see is the right handed power off the bench, or for that matter, any right handed power at all.
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I was gonna post something along these lines
My logic is this, we won the WS last year with what amounts to the same exact roster.
(Ibanez basically equals burrell)
Only one guy had the career year and played out of his mind last year (Lidge).
I don’t know if the pen can keep up with last years pace but, I have a hard time believing it will be tragically worse.
Rollins missed time, Utley was hurt for 1/2 the year, Howard only started hitting the last few months.
I just feel like, if our core guys put up their usual numbers, nothing crazy, then there is no team that they can not compete with. Last year was not a fluke.
With Eaton off the staff, Howard being more fit, Myers being more fit, Lidge is more comfortable than he ever was in Houston, Hamels blossomed into what we expected him to be in the playoffs, Werth is filling into his starting role, Victorino is becoming a star, the front office has its stuff together. We will be better.
With all of the guys we have locked down for the next few years I whole heartedly believe we can have nice runs the next 3 years, not that we will necessarily win a WS every year, but we should get at least 1 more.
Again, there is always injuries and unexpected exterior events, but I honestly do not see another NL BETTER than the phigtins, maybe as good but not better.
funny you should mention injuries..
Rollins is having back problems, I am sure you must have heard that by now.
Marc ( from phillyfansportstalk)
Marc Gross
by phillyfansportstalk on Mar 5, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
force of habit..but you are right!!
thanks for pointing that out!!
Marc Gross
by phillyfansportstalk on Mar 6, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree...
…with so much of what was said in this post, I am not quite sure where to start.
The starting pitching looks much better this year without Eaton’s automatic forfeit every fifth day. As long as Myers, Moyer, and Blanton can be reasonably consistent, we seem to be in pretty good shape in this department.
Sure, the starting pitching looks great, as long as 3/5’s of our rotation can be reasonably consistent. Oh, and lets not mention our fifth starter, we are not even sure who that is yet. So, in summation, we have a great number one, who pitched 79 innings more in 2008 than in any other season in his career, followed by 4 pitchers who are good as long as we qualify that they can be reasonably consistent. Good stuff.
Defensively, the Phils look as good as anyone in MLB, as long as Howard has improved his fielding enough to avoid being called a butcher.
I actually agree, that we are above average defensively, but lets be honest, Howard and Ibanez are complete disasters defensively. What gives you hope that Howard, at the tender age of 29, can all of a sudden improve his defense? Oh, that’s right, there was some silly fluff stories a month ago in the paper that said he worked hard on his defense for a month. Thanks for the effort, big guy.
It all adds up to a much better season than last year..and an easier Division title..K-Rod or no K-Rod.
Com’n, now, you cannot be serious. The Phillies beat the mets by 3 games last year. 3 games over the course of a 162 game season is some noise and nothing else. It could have ended in just the opposite fashion, with the Mets taking the division by three games, just as easily. Now, when you consider that the Phils have mostly stayed static in the offseason, while the Mets have greatly improved one of the most glaring weaknesses in all of baseball with Rodriquez and Putz, well, then, I have to give the edge to the Mets. I am a Phillies fan, and think we are certainly capable of beating the Mets, but why can’t fans just be honest with themselves. If another team is superior to your own, it is not a negative reflection upon you, it is ok to admit it sometimes…
Only one guy had the career year and played out of his mind last year (Lidge).
Lidge, Werth, Moyer (for his age), and Durbin all had career years. Also, almost as importantly, Victorino, Burrell, Utley, Howard, Dobbs, Romero, Madson, Eyre, and Hamels all had excellent seasons, seasons that will be very hard to trump in the upcoming year. Really, the only positions I can see having a dramatic improvement are SS and C.
With all of the guys we have locked down for the next few years I whole heartedly believe we can have nice runs the next 3 years, not that we will necessarily win a WS every year, but we should get at least 1 more.
Really? The Phillies should get at least 1 more championship in the next three years. That is so silly I am not even sure where to begin. Do you not remember the 25 years we just waited for any of our 4 teams to win a championship? That is 100 seasons with 0 titles! And now, all of a sudden, the Phillies should when at least 1 of the next 3 world championships? Here is a simple exercise for you. The Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays are all just as good as the Phillies (In my opinion, I am also ignoring about 8-10 other teams). So, all together, there are 6 “cream of the crop” teams. Now, how should the Phillies be expected to win atleast one of the next 3 series when there are 5 other teams that are just as good if not better. Do you see the math problem, here?
Anyway, I am done. Start talking about silly intangibles like how the Phillies are now “winners” and the Mets “choke artists”. Go ahead, I won’t even comment about it.
Why so negative?
I respectfully agree to disagree, but I feel you are a little out of line.
Utley and Howard for one. Look at their past 3 years, you will see that their numbers are nearly identical(with the exception of Howard’s BA dipping). How is it hard to believe that they will put up similar numbers? Do you really think Hamels won’t be able to top 15-10? Will Myers be as awful, very doubtful? Yes, Lidge basically absolutely can’t have as good of a year, but none of these guys did anything last year besides him that could not be feasibly done this year. Not gaurunteed to be done, but it is very reasonable.
And why can the Phillies not make another run in the next 3 years? The Phillies now are not the teams from the mid nineties or early half of this decade when they were being sabotaged. I wholeheartedly agree that they most likely are not the best team in MLB, but they are definitly upper echelon. What does their first 100 years have anything to do with any of THESE players? None of them played back then.
If there is indeed 6 “cream of the crop” teams and the Phils are one of them, would they not have a good chance as any of the other 5 to win? There are a bunch of teams as good as the Phils, but there are no definitively better teams out there. The Phigtins have the same questions any other team has, that is the thing, EVERY team has question marks, simply throwing money at it doesn’t work(notice that when the Yankees were killing it in the late nineties, they had largely all homegrown talent). I can point out just as many reasons why any of these other teams won’t win either.
As a life long Phillies fan, I am far to jaded to ever expect a title every year, but if you are indeed a Phillies fan, how can you not be excited about the best Phillies group ever put together besides the HOF laden late 70’s-early 80’s teams? The point is that while it is unreasonable to expect the world, it is equally as foolish not to hold THIS particular group of players to a higher standard than those of Phillies past.
I was merely attempting to point out that when you have a core 4-7 guys that have been playing together for a few years, and are quality guys, you should be expected to win, never ever underestimate the importance of cohesion and chemistry. It doesn’t make you the best team, but it can make a pretty good team a world champ. Go ask Jerry Jones and the cowboys if chemistry is important. Team USA b-ball had almost the same team in 04 as 08(the most talented team by far), 04=bronze, 08=Gold. The difference, they WANTED it in 08 instead of expecting it in 04, it brought them together and they won.
thanks roland86
this guy may be a Mets fan disguised as a Phils fan. If he thinks that Putz and K-Rod added to the collection of stiffs already on the Mets is a threat, he may be suffering for North Jersey Air Inhalation.
Marc Gross
by phillyfansportstalk on Mar 6, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
There is A LOT wrong with this, but I will only point out one of the many glaring fallacies: that Howard’s production are nearly identical over the past 3 season. Indeed, his counting stats have remained constant, but his IMPORTANT offensive statistics have shown a disturbing downward trend over those three seasons. His OPS has dropped by nearly .100 each of those three seasons.
Counting stats lie…and seeing as how your entire argument is informed by counting stats, your argument is weak.
True
But I know what my eyes tell me, Ryan Howard is a large large man who’s job is to make runs happen, he does that very very well. Driving in 130-150 runs a year is his job, I would be shocked if he didn’t do it again this year. Don’t forget that he is also in the best shape of his career, losing some extra lbs shouldn’t hurt him getting on base or just generally hitting better. I don’t get too into statistics, or sabermetrics or anything like that. Any stats I threw in there were just off the top of my head that could sort-of quantify production. I typically just watch and try to understand what I can get from that.
And, “glaring fallacies?” 90% of what I wrote is my opinion on how competitive I expect this team to be, but I suppose I could be lying about my opinion? I think people may just have read a little too much into anything I wrote or the original poster wrote.
Do you honestly think that this team will not compete in the playoffs for the next few years?
First, what Howard’s RBI numbers tell me is that he has Utley, Werth (or Victorino), and Rollins getting on base in front of him. I too would be shocked if Howard didn’t rack up about 130 RBIs because he still has the same people hitting in front of him. Counting stats like RBI’s are not as useful for evaluating the ability of individual players as are stats like OPS and VORP.
Second, no, I do not think that this team will compete in the playoffs for the next few years because I think it is far from a foregone conclusion that they will even make the playoffs in the next few years. When you consider—as Nedoul Caz has already pointed out—that they only made the playoffs by the skin of their teeth the past two seasons (yes, clinching the division within the last 3 games of the season is the “skin of their teeth”), and you consider that our two biggest division rivals (Mets, Braves) haven’t exactly gotten worse, I would say it is quite a leap of faith to say before the season has even started that this team is going to compete in the playoffs. It is possible, certainly. So is God, unicorns, leprechauns, the Lock Ness Monster, and bigfoot. But until the season has actually started to pan out, there is no point in sitting around speculating. It’s a waste of time and usually just boils down to puerile debates about loyalty and who are the “real fans” based on that person’s willingness to make outlandish predictions.
wow..someone who made their feelings known..
without an f bomb…is that allowed??
And, there is much truth in what you say. We can probably leave the Loch Ness monster out of this.
Marc Gross
by phillyfansportstalk on Mar 6, 2009 6:07 PM EST up reply actions
Alright, I have to defend my opinions
Utley and Howard for one. Look at their past 3 years, you will see that their numbers are nearly identical(with the exception of Howard’s BA dipping). How is it hard to believe that they will put up similar numbers?
I said that both Howard and Utley had very good years, years that would be difficult to trump. I said nothing to the fact that they could not replicate there ‘08 seasons. In fact, that is what I think will happen. Also, Howard’s BA isn’t the only thing that has been “dipping” for the past three years. His BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS have all taken nosedives for the past three years.
Do you really think Hamels won’t be able to top 15-10?
This “reasoning” is why I wonder if I should argue my point at all. A pitcher’s win-loss record is useless. It may be used to group pitchers into vague classifications like “bad” and “good”, but that is about it. It certainly is not indicitave of a pitchers’ true skill level. Hamels had an ERA+ of 145 and a whip of 1.082 in ’08. These statistics indicate that Hamels is a truly great pitcher who had a great season in ’08. I think we will be fortunate if Hamels can go out there and do the same exact thing in ’09. Now, that same level of production could add up to 10 wins or 20, but that does not change his value to the team.
What does their first 100 years have anything to do with any of THESE players? None of them played back then.
If you took the time to read and understand my logic, you would know that I was not talking about the past 100 years of Phillies history, but rather the past 25 years of Philadelphia sports history. However, luckily for you, the point is the same. I was simply trying to show you some basic examples of mathematics that you might understand. You previously said that the Phillies “SHOULD get AT LEAST 1 more” championship in the next 3 years. I was pointing out that many Philadelphia teams (Flyers, Phillies, Sixers, and Eagles) over the past 25 years could have been considered as one of the teams in the top echelon of their respective leagues. And yet, we have only accounted for one championship. So, now, here are the Phillies. In my watered down example of 6 upper echelon MLB teams going into ‘09, the Phillies would have a 1 in 6 chance of winning the World Series in each of the next three years. Even in this example it is unlikely that the Phillies will win another World Series. Now, add in another 8 or so teams that I believe are on par with the Phillies and the odds grow smaller and smaller. Finally, lets consider the luck involved in 5 and 7 game series’. Even inferior teams could easily pull an upset over the course of 5 games! My point is, that no team in baseball, SHOULD win AT LEAST 1 championship in the next three years.
As a life long Phillies fan, I am far to jaded to ever expect a title every year, but if you are indeed a Phillies fan, how can you not be excited about the best Phillies group ever put together besides the HOF laden late 70’s-early 80’s teams?
I am a Phillies fan, as a number of other posters can testify to. However, I can also simply look objectively at “my” team. Something that apparently you cannot do. And that is ok, some fans are simply blinded by their love of a particular team. Hell, “fans” is derived from “fanatics”. It just makes sense. I am excited about the upcoming season, but that doesn’t mean I cannot also be honest about the situation.
I was merely attempting to point out that when you have a core 4-7 guys that have been playing together for a few years, and are quality guys, you should be expected to win, never ever underestimate the importance of cohesion and chemistry. It doesn’t make you the best team, but it can make a pretty good team a world champ. Go ask Jerry Jones and the cowboys if chemistry is important. Team USA b-ball had almost the same team in 04 as 08(the most talented team by far), 04=bronze, 08=Gold. The difference, they WANTED it in 08 instead of expecting it in 04, it brought them together and they won.
I almost passed out from reading all of the useless intangible keywords.
don't pass out
we don’t want to have to send an ambulance for you
Marc Gross
by phillyfansportstalk on Mar 6, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
Mr Caz..
I actually respect your opinion. I can see where you are trying to be realistic about the Phillies…but you are really under selling the fact that this Mets team has found a way to lose down the stretch for the last two seasons, and aside from adding Putz and K-Rod there are no significant changes to their team. They have to have the lead going into the 8th for the back end of their bullpen to be effective. Beltran and Delgado may have already seen their best years. Reyes is just a punk. Wright may be their own legit threat, and he can’t do it himself. Your argument my be better received in North Jersey which is where I suspect you may live..If you do, if live there..and you aren’t wearing an oxygen mask, these ‘Mets are great’ thoughts can seep into your head. Almost forgot..your reference to the 100 seasons without a title.. that is ridiculous…each one of those 100 seasons was distinct and seperate from the others…none of them had a team like this Phils team with one under their belt already, and apparent determination to make it a repeat. If you don’t think that is an intangible worth consideration…well, you shouldn’t be blogging and drinking
Marc Gross
by phillyfansportstalk on Mar 6, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
?
…but you are really under selling the fact that this Mets team has found a way to lose down the stretch for the last two seasons, and aside from adding Putz and K-Rod there are no significant changes to their team.
I see, so aside from adding two of the best relievers in the entire game to one of the worst bullpens in the entire game, the Mets didn’t really do anything of signifigance?
Reyes is just a punk.
I never knew being a punk and one of the best SS’s in the game were mutually exclusive.
each one of those 100 seasons was distinct and seperate from the others…none of them had a team like this Phils team with one under their belt already, and apparent determination to make it a repeat.
What? Every season is distinct and separate from the others, I agree. However, doesn’t that mean the ‘09 season is distinct and separate from the ’08 season. So how can this apparanet determination, which I suppose none of the other champions since the Yankess of the late 90’s had, influence the ’09 season? That is some failed logic, my Phillies brethren.
The Mets do not scare me.
They improved their bullpen by adding two good relievers. Their bullpen now has a grand total of two good relievers. The Mets’ starting rotation is a disaster. They have 1 excellent starter, 1 good starter with injury problems, 1 talented starter who is an inconsistent wreck, 1 unproven youngster and their choices for a fifth starter include a journeyman released by the Nationals, a guy with almost no major league experience and a washed-up, injury-riddled mess who hasn’t pitched effectively in 3 years.
The Mets’ infield has two superstars, an aging veteran who’s on his last go around the league and a total stiff who only has a job because they’re paying him gobs of money.
The outfield is a mess, with only one legitimate every day player and the catcher was mediocre even before he got old.
Position by position, I give the Phillies the edge everywhere but third (big edge to the Mets), shortstop (slight edge Mets) and center field (clear edge Mets). Top to bottom, the Phils’ pitching is substantially better than the Mets’, especially in the middle relief. Most experts will tell you that Rodriguez has lost quite a bit of his stuff over the last few years and his save total was inflated because the Angels gave him 69 opportuities! Putz is arguably better than Madson, but he’s also coming off an injury.
Only in haze of the smog-addled boroughs, pumped full of nonsensical sports-talk radio chatter from that nimrod Mad Dog idiot could anyone seriously argue that the Mets are better than the Phillies.
that is great
you obviously live in southern Jersey where the air neither turns your skin green nor destroys brain cells..
one thing you could have mentioned..if you compare the 1-8’s from the two teams, it isn’t even a contest
Marc Gross
by phillyfansportstalk on Mar 7, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
FUCK THIS BLOG I TRIED TO GIVE AN OPINION ON MY FAVORITE FUCKING TEAM AND PEOPLE ARE FUCKIN PRICKS DONE
I cannot resist...
If you are trying to convey your anger or aggresion, I believe an exclamation point is the typical method. Typing in captial letters just makes you look silly.
Roland86..
I am on your side..but he is right about the anger you have conveyed..not saying you are angry..it looks that way though…mr caz is entitled to his opinion..and back and forth is what blogging is all about.
Marc Gross
by phillyfansportstalk on Mar 6, 2009 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
wow
This discussion went downhill fast, didn’t it?
Let’s all turn the volume down a little bit and at least try to be respectful of each other. That goes for the old hands and the new posters both. Thanks.
Still beats the nature of the discourse over at Bleeding Green Nation these days. The user content there has deteriorated pretty rapidly.
Yup. I have gone into self-imposed exile from that place because of the rampant homophobia, racism, and sexism. I brought it up to Jason, but for some reason he refused to do anything about the major perpetrators.
you are right..
I don’t know if you saw the grief I took for saying something negative about Donovan..it was ugly
Marc Gross
by phillyfansportstalk on Mar 9, 2009 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions
While I don’t think there is really much negative to be said about Donovan, I can certainly sympathize with someone who was driven away from that site by the parrots.
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