Cole Hamels' Hot Streak

by David S. Cohen on Mar 5, 2009 12:45 PM EST Comment 7 comments

On the heels of Cole Hamels' spring debut yesterday in which he pitched two innings of 2-hit, 1-walk, 0-run ball against Team Canada, it's worth re-visiting just how amazing King Cole was down the stretch last year.

From August 7 to the end of the season, Cole started 10 games for the Phillies. In those 10 games, he gave up more than 2 earned runs just once. His ERA for those 10 starts was 2.42. He struck out 59 in 67 innings, giving up only 63 hits and 13 walks for a WHIP of 1.13.

And then he turned it up in the playoffs. He pitched 35 innings, giving up only 7 runs for an ERA of 1.80. He struck out 30, giving up 23 hits and 9 walks for a WHIP of 0.91. And he won four of his five starts, with his fifth win possibly denied him thanks to Bud Selig's idiocy in continuing Game Five past the fifth inning.

If the Phillies are going to think about repeating this year, they need this Cole Hamels to show up for them. They have too many question marks in the rotation -- Myers' head, Moyer's age, Blanton's ability, whoever the fifth starter is -- for anything but another amazing year from Hamels.

Yesterday's performance against a solid Canada team was a good start.

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Reading Cole’s comments and getting the general sense of how he’s handled himself really for the last year now, it’s kind of amazing to think it was only four years ago that he busted his hand in a bar fight.

by dajafi on Mar 5, 2009 1:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Peripherals

It’s interesting to note that his excellent stretch run notwithstanding, Cole’s peripherals were down across the board from 2007 — K/9, K/BB, HR/9, GB/FB, etc. None of the numbers was down by all that much, but I wonder if it means that he was unlucky in 2007, or lucky in 2008?

The decline in strikeouts is particularly interesting. Hamels posted video-game strikeout totals in the minors, and looked primed to do the same in the majors after he posted a 9.9 K/9 ratio in his rookie season. On the other hand, he only averaged 5.75 innings per start that year, so it appears since then he has since traded strikeouts for groundballs, as his GB/FB rate went up in 2007 and despite the decline last year, was still higher than in 2006. His average innings per start has increased in each of the last two years, to 6.55 in 2007 and 6.88 last season. But as we saw down the stretch and in the playoffs, it seems Cole can often dial it up and get the big strikeout if he needs it, so I’d say this is a pretty smart strategy on his part (assuming he’s doing it of his own accord).

by phatj on Mar 6, 2009 9:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I remember noticing that last year. My sense was that it was intentional—he was trying to preserve bullets and go deeper into games by getting guys to make weak contact, trusting his infielders, rather than just racking up the (fascist?) strikeouts.

Probably if someone wanted to look a little deeper, pitch selection data would be illuminating—more pitches down in the zone, etc.

by dajafi on Mar 6, 2009 10:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Could this be Moyer’s influence? He’s always said he wants to get guys out as quickly as possible as opposed to getting them out by strikeout.

by doubleh on Mar 6, 2009 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

MLB Network

Brought that up last night in their 30 clubs in 30 days show, noting that Hamels learned a lot from Moyer, including that pitching doesn’t mean throwing, and that the quicker you get guys out, the better off you’ll be.

by Cormican on Mar 6, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hamels definitely pitches to gets now instead of getting strike outs. he has the ability to strike a guy out if he really needs to. i think coste likes to pitch to get guys out as soon as possible, too.

by jamiethekiller on Mar 6, 2009 11:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs