Just Say No To Kyle Kendrick

by David S. Cohen on Mar 6, 2009 3:54 PM EST

Kyle Kendrick had a great rookie year, going 10-4 with a 3.87 ERA. Even though he didn't strike out many hitters, he had a low walk rate (1.9 per 9 innings) and a low home run rate (1.19 per 9 innings). Basically, he kept men off the bases unnecessarily and kept the ball in the park. That translated to a good year.

Last year was not so good. He ended with a 5.49 ERA and a respectable 11-9 record. But his peripherals were worse. While he actually was striking out slightly more hitters per nine innings (3.9 compared to 3.6), he was walking a lot more (3.3 per 9) and giving up more home runs (1.33 per 9).

But his ugly stats for last year mask how utterly atrocious he was for the second half of last year. From July 11 forward, Kendrick made Phillies fans long for the days of Adam Eaton. Here's the comparison of some basic stats for Kendrick's career pre-July 11 and Kendrick post-July 11:

	IP	ER	ERA	K	H	BB	WHIP
Pre July 11, 2008	219.33	100	4.10	92	241	52	1.35
July 11, 2008 on	57.33	47	7.38	25	82	25	1.87

Digging deeper into some important peripherals shows just what Kendrick's problem was:

	IP	K/9	BB/9	H/9	HR/9	K/BB
Pre July 11, 2008	219.33	3.78	2.13	9.89	1.15	1.77
July 11, 2008 on	57.33	3.92	3.92	12.87	1.73	1.00

Essentially, hitters figured him out. Although he was striking out a slightly greater number of hitters, they were able to coax more walks out of him and, if he threw the ball over the plate, hit the ball for more power and with better results.

Early spring training results show the same thing. He's had two outings. Yesterday he allowed 5 hits and 4 runs in 2.67 innings. Last week he gave up only 1 run but on 4 hits in 2.67 innings.

Kendrick is done. He never had outstanding stuff to begin with, and now the league has figured him out. This is not a pitcher the Phillies should have any business putting in their rotation this year.

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Well put...

I agree completely.

by Neduol Caz on Mar 6, 2009 4:32 PM EST reply actions

Although you are pretty much correct, I think there was a little more to Kendrick’s success in his first season. He really did a good job of keeping the ball low that year. In fact, I remember the Phils saying that’s why they promoted him instead of one of their other youngsters (remember how desperate they were at the time?).

Anyway, Kendrick kept the ball down and didn’t walk guys. And he can be successful when he does this. But he didn’t do so last year. He got worse and worse as the season progressed. When he doesn’t command his stuff he just gets jocked. And he doesn’t command his stuff anymore it seems.

But I think, despite his inability to strike guys out, he was still effective during his rookie year. It is a very tough thing to pull off though. Some guys have managed but it’s pretty rare. I think the chances of Kendrick managing to do so again are pretty slim. But he did it in 2007.

During his rookie year he made 20 starts. He pitched 6 to 7 innings and allowed 1 to 3 runs in 14 of those starts. That’s pitching well enough to win, especially with the Phillies, and sure enough, the Phils won 13 of those games. He didn’t really benefit form outlandish run support. He deserved his 10-4 record.

Kendrick can only succeed if he keeps the ball down and commands his pitches. He couldn’t do so last season and if he doesn’t get that ability back, he’s done.

I like Happ as the 5th starter because he can strike some guys out. He’s almost certainly a better pitcher than KK at the big league level. I think he should get the chance.

by smitty99 on Mar 6, 2009 4:34 PM EST reply actions

Well… “done” might be a little harsh. He isn’t even 25, and he obviously has something with the sinker. But he’s a bad fit for this team at this time: they can’t afford to wait around and see if a second pitch shows up, not while expecting to contend and with at least three preferable options on hand.

What’s particularly discouraging about Kendrick is that he seems to be losing ground in terms of composure. When he came up in ‘07, what was stunning about him was how cool he always remained with runners on base. I’m willing to ascribe some of that to luck in terms of where balls were hit—but it wasn’t liked he walked the ballpark in those spots. Now a bit of bad luck in an exhibition game pushes him to show up his fielders.

With all this in mind, I find myself hoping he’s dealt. Who knows if he has any value right now, though. More likely he goes to Lehigh Valley, does okay but not great against AAA hitters, and maybe resurfaces as a middle reliever at some point. I still wonder if shorter stints would boost his velocity from 90-92 to the mid-90s, at which point he’s probably useful out of the bullpen.

by dajafi on Mar 6, 2009 4:36 PM EST reply actions

Good points, well argued. Totally agree.

by FuquaManuel on Mar 6, 2009 5:14 PM EST reply actions

While I also think “done” is a bit of an overstatement, I fully understand that Kendrick probably can’t succeed in the long term without the ability to strike people out. What puzzles me is why Kendrick can’t do it . He isn’t the hardest thrower in the world, but he throws as hard as other guys with much higher strikeout rates. I don’t think Joe Blanton throws all that much harder, for instance.

I get that Kendrick doesn’t have a very good breaking pitch, but it seems to me that, unlike pure velocity, if you have an otherwise major league-quality arm then a decent breaking pitch is something that you should theoretically be able to learn.

by taco pal on Mar 6, 2009 6:10 PM EST reply actions

release points...

king cole is so effective because his release point for his main 3 pitches (fast/change/curve) is the same.
i haven’t taken the time to notice but i bet KK’s telegraphing his pitches and big league hitters will knock you if they know whats coming…
it’s actually quite amazing that a hitter can read that release point, the spin, and make contact all within fractions of a second… either way KK is still young and i’m sure we could get a pick or throw him in last second on a deadline deal…

by PHIGHTINPHILS on Mar 7, 2009 1:03 PM EST reply actions

Don’t think he would have made it anyways, but it looks like Carrasco just punched his ticket to start at AAA with todays performance.

by FuquaManuel on Mar 8, 2009 4:29 PM EDT reply actions

I always felt that Kendricks ‘good year’ he was the beneficiary of a lot of double plays – but that was purely my perception i know :)

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Mar 8, 2009 5:54 PM EDT reply actions

Maybe a sign that GMs around the league are really getting smarter is that Kendrick apparently didn’t have all that much trade value either of the last two winters. Everybody seems to have gotten that his success was fluky. Twenty years ago I have to believe he could have been flipped for something really good.

by dajafi on Mar 9, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions