Ryan Howard: bestest ever oppo power hitter, maybe

by phatj on Apr 14, 2009 2:30 PM EDT Comment 8 comments

I know MattS has touched on this point before, but here's a pretty in-depth analysis of where various sluggers have sent their home runs.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/04/alltime_home_ru.php

Howard has the third highest career percentage of his homers going to the opposite field, behind, of all people, Roberto Clemente and Julio Franco. It should be noted that neither hit as many home runs in their entire careers as Howard has already, and he's obviously far from done.

Also, Howard has the two highest (technically the highest and also tied for second) season totals of opposite field shots ('06 & '08).

Basically, I guess what this means is that he has disgusting raw power, and the only thing that prevents his flyballs from going out is if he doesn't get enough loft on them (especially to CF and RF). Not exactly earth-shattering to folks who watch him every day, but interesting nonetheless.

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With Franco at least, I think the explanation is that everything he hit was to the opposite field.

Incidentally, did anyone catch this Rob Neyer blog post, where he says the Mets are the better team on paper because “the Phillies’ best hitters have passed their primes”? That had me scratching my head a bit. Is 30 not considered prime?

by taco pal on Apr 14, 2009 4:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Still seems a little wrong to be talking baseball. Sorry Harry.

by taco pal on Apr 14, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think prime in ‘baseball’ terms is a bit younger actually (thought not sure utley or howard have passed yet) – one of the knocks on a long term deal for howard is that the phils started him ‘late’ so even if he’s only into his 3rd or 4th or whatever arbitration year – he’s still an ‘older’ player and guys like him supposedly have real quick dropoffs

Maybe it’s just recently but on position players the phillies seem to wait ‘longer’ than most do – utley was called up relatively
‘late’ for a prospect of his caliber as was howard (though thome was in the way, sort of)

Howard turns 30 this year

In comparison (cause i heard gammons slobbering over him the other day) BJ Upton turns 25 this year – in his 5th season.

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Apr 14, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really? Delgado and Beltran are young? I must have missed something.

by doubleh on Apr 14, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, well, to be fair, Neyer’s exact quote is, “The Phillies’ best hitters have passed their primes; two of the Mets’ three best hitters — Carlos Beltran being the exception — haven’t yet reached their primes.” So he accounts for Beltran, and his argument isn’t based on the entire Mets lineup from top to bottom, just Reyes and Wright.

I guess his argument goes something like this. (1) The Phillies and Mets were basically equal in 2008. (2) Reyes and Wright are likely to get better. (3) None of the Phillies’ best position players are likely to get better. (4) In fact, they’re all likely to get worse. (5) Therefore, the Mets are the better team in 2009. (He also talks about pitching.)

It’s not an unreasonable argument, but I guess I disagree with (3) and (4) because of how he’s using the word “prime.” While I am aware that the midpoint of a baseball player’s prime is around age 28, it doesn’t seem to me that it’s typical for a player to reach his peak and then immediately go into reverse. Careers have upslope periods and downslope periods, but one’s “prime” isn’t an instantaneous moment. It’s more like a plateau, which lasts for at least a few seasons, and ends sometime after age 30.

Also, I think that even though Utley and Rollins had already reached their primes as of last year, they both played through injuries which may or may not repeat this year. I could easily see both of them improving on their 2008 performances just as much as Reyes and Wright are expected to improve on theirs. There are some nuances that Neyer is ignorant of, since he’s observing from afar.

by taco pal on Apr 15, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This analysis makes sense, but I’d add that “prime” seems to be a more elastic concept than Neyer indicates in this instance. My sense is that great players tend to reach their best years earlier and/or keep them later.

Let’s consider Utley. He wasn’t particularly precocious, not reaching the majors until age 24 and not becoming a full-time starter until 26. His top B-R comp through age 29 is Gabby Hartnett, whose best two seasons by OPS+ were at age 34 and 36. The next guy on the list (after a drop of 30 points) is Javy Lopez, who’s not likely to join Hartnett in Cooperstown but had a nice career; Lopez, a bat-first catcher whose offense might not be expected to persist deep into his 30s, actually had his best year at the plate at 32. Third is Alfonso Soriano, who’s three years older than Chase; he’s been a better hitter on balance in his 30s than he was in his 20s. Next is another catcher, Carlton Fisk, who kept hitting well into his 40s. It’s not until you get to Al Rosen at Utley’s sixth closest comp that any warning bells ring; Rosen was done at 32, from “back and leg problems” according to Wikipedia.

Still, I think the balance of the information suggests that not only has Utley probably not passed out of his “prime,” but that the best might be yet to come. That leaves Rollins and Howard, whose career trajectories we’ve discussed elsewhere. Jimmy’s (gradually) improving patience should stand him in good stead; he’s the sort of heady player whom I believe will adjust his game as his physical abilities change. Howard might not age well deep into his 30s, but I’ll take age 29-31 from him very happily.

by dajafi on Apr 15, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree and I also think Neyer doesn’t take into account that many of the Phils position players had down years last year…maybe Rollins excepted (he was injured but I think we can all agree that 2007 was a career year for JRoll)…and certainly have room for improvement.

Of course, Neyer could also look at Reyes increasingly personal stat driving need to steal as many bases as possible, therefore wearing him down at the end of every season and leading to his Sept .314 OBP. He reminds me sooo much of early Jimmy Rollins it isn’t funny.

by doubleh on Apr 16, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

prime

i think prime years doesn’t really apply when you are an above average hitter for a while. most of the phillies players have demonstrated good hitting ever since the minors. its not like they were mediocre and then hit lights out for 2 years before falling into obscurity.

by jamiethekiller on Apr 15, 2009 2:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs