Braves Done, Reyes Still a Schmuck...

by Neduol Caz on Apr 16, 2009 12:42 PM EDT Comment 8 comments

I ran across two interesting headlines as I was parusing the internet today. First, it is a bit sad, but mostly just comical, that Jones is already aching down in Atlanta. I respect Chipper Jones a lot, and never root for any ballplayer to get hurt, but I find it funny that the Braves continue to count on Jones year after year. After a while, I just have to laugh at the Braves. And, yes, I know that Chipper will be back in the lineup after about a week or two. But does anybody really think this is his last injury of the season?

Secondly, something all Phillies fans already know, but it is always nice to get some reassurance, that Reyes is still a schmuck. I guarantee that this gimmick has absolutely nothing to do with honoring one of the all time great players, and is all about the attention he will recieve from the media for even talking about it let alone doing it. I just hope Reyes tries that against the Phils, in a meaningful game no less.

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You can't really figure the payoff from the story, but stealing home seems idiotic

From TFA: “Robinson successfully stole home 19 times in 31 attempts.”

So, he failed 12 times. The success rate was 61.29%

We don’t know how much the out cost or how many outs there were, whether anyone else was on base. I imagine that the success rate would have to be pretty high to risk it. My gut tells me that, especially with all the ways to score from 3rd, that even with a success rate of 61.29% that trying to steal home is costing your team runs.

So, yes, I hope Reyes tries to steal home a bunch of times.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Apr 16, 2009 2:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Odds on scoring from third

“Put in more concrete terms, with a runner on second and no one out, you have a 62.5% chance of scoring one run. With a runner on third and no one out, you have an 82.7% chance of scoring one run. With one out and no one on, you have a 16.5% chance of scoring one run. (All numbers in the aggregate, taken from Baseball Between the Numbers.) "

From: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=842

I’d want to see the other odds (3rd and one out, 3rd and 2 outs) also. We’re still left with not knowing the Robinson steal situations. An oldtimer quoted in the Reyes article noted that Robinson had great “instincts”. Run the other way, when the source is old-timers and “instincts”. That’s my…instinct.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Apr 16, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ty Cobb stole home a mind-shattering 54 times.

by Walcott on Apr 16, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice stat. Different era though. If I’m not mistaken, pitchers worked from the windup with men on 3rd in that era, yes? That would give the runner at third a huge advantage trying to steal home.

"I tried to run him over but Eli had his big boy pads on and he kind of stopped me from getting in the end zone. The next time I’ll try to jump over his head.’’ - Asante Samuel

by foos05 on Apr 17, 2009 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs