Sorry, Charlie: The World Series Isn't to Blame

by David S. Cohen on Apr 21, 2009 1:01 PM EDT

When a game is postponed for rain, sports journalists are always in a treacherous position. The newspaper or website still needs content, but there's been no game. So you have to see what juicy quotes you can dig up from the guys who didn't play that day. Oftentimes it results in nothing more than fluff pieces published that night or the next day, something to fill column-inches when there's no game to report on.

But sometimes you strike gold. Which is probably what the Phillies' beat reporters thought yesterday when Charlie Manuel opened up to them on his concerns about the Phillies' slow start. He pointed fingers at the team (not individuals) for being distracted by the World Series and letting the celebration and euphoria over that take them away from preparing for this season.

"I think that sometimes you can do things that get away from the fact that the game is the first priority, and winning the game is the first priority," said Manuel. He continued, "There will always be things that make us think of last year. Like, for instance, if you look at the pictures on the wall. There is the fact that we won. But at the same time, the celebration comes to an end. These are memories, but the game goes on." The whole story is here and here.

Of course, this is a nice narrative for the manager to spin to get the team to focus: Team has first taste of championship, gets too excited by it, is lax in the off-season, comes into the new season not as prepared as they should be, suffers as a result, and needs the manager to whip them into shape.

The only problem with the story is this: it's all truthiness and no fact.

Here are the facts. Through 11 games this season, the Phillies are 5-6. Under Manuel's leadership, that's tied for the best record the team has had through the first 11 games. The team has a .805 OPS, which is just short of the team's first-11-game best under Manuel of .806 in 2006. Of course, the team's pitching has been horrible, but we've seen that before as well.

Here's a chart showing how the Phillies have performed over the first 11 games under Manuel. And, in case you need any recollection, in only one of these years did the team win the World Series the fall before:

	Record	OPS	ERA
2005	5-6	0.729	4.36
2006	4-7	0.806	5.66
2007	3-8	0.782	5.14
2008	5-6	0.752	3.87
2009	5-6	0.805	6.87

Manuel has his facts wrong. Through 11 games, the Phillies are playing no worse this year than any of the other years he's managed the team. Thus, if there's something wrong with the team through 11 games this year, then the same thing was wrong with the team in each of the years Manuel has managed.

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Comments

strange

I agree almost completely, but I do find it kind of strange that Charlie went public with this. He’s normally such a close-to-the-vest guy with regard to policing his clubhouse. Who knows?

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Apr 21, 2009 10:33 AM EDT reply actions

I think this was a preemptive shot—he sees something that might not have completely manifested yet, but that concerns him.

This is one of those things that we as full outsiders—much more than the beat writers who at least are in the clubhouse every day and have some sense of the atmosphere—can only guess at. For certain, it makes more sense to blame the “slow” start on the awful pitching than “complacency,” but it’s not impossible that attitude and work ethic have some influence on results.

IMO, Manuel has earned a great deal of deference based on how he’s run his team these last four years. I have no problem at all with him saying this, even if it’s impossible to quantify; he’s appealing to the team’s collective pride (which I think answers WC’s question as to why he spoke up).

by dajafi on Apr 21, 2009 11:15 AM EDT reply actions

Still bothers me

I give Charlie respect on how he handles the team, but this still bothers me for a couple of reasons.

First, it just ignores the facts of the past several years. True, there may be more going on in the clubhouse that we’re not privy too, but put it in light of the slow starts of the past few years rather than try to blame it all on the World Series. Get it right.

Second, I think blaming the World Series ignores something that I’m growing increasingly concerned about: that there’s something wrong with the Phillies as an institution that makes them terrible at Spring Training and bad-to-mediocre (but never good) during April. It didn’t hurt them last year or the year before, but what about in prior years? Or in years the Mets don’t collapse? A few more wins in April would help. There needs to be a serious look at what the organization is doing to prepare its players, regardless of whether they won it all in October, because the results clearly show that the team is not doing that well right now. Players have come and gone, but the results remain essentially the same.

by David S. Cohen on Apr 21, 2009 12:16 PM EDT reply actions

a few ways to defend charlie

1. he probably considers this team better than any of previous teams (excluding maybe last year)
2. you didn’t adjust for the competition they played for thus far – the padres and nationals were pretty universially considered the weakest in the NL along with the pirates.

by dbeach13 on Apr 21, 2009 3:56 PM EDT reply actions

I just eyeballed it

And they’ve sucked against good and bad in years past for the first 11 games. A lot of losses to Washington, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Florida (in mediocre years), as well as to the Mets, Braves, and Cardinals. They’re not good against anyone in the first 11 games.

by David S. Cohen on Apr 21, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I think I’m still distracted by that pinstriped job he wore to the parade. But managers never look in the mirror (and I mean never).

by Wet Luzinski on Apr 21, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions

Would be nice

It would be nice if they did. There’s got to be something to be learned here about why the team, despite almost complete changes in on-field personnel, still just sucks in the first two weeks of April. They did this under Bowa too. What’s the organization doing wrong in preparing the team for the season?

by David S. Cohen on Apr 21, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

in all seriousness—look at the rosters of ST games and when they are decided…mostly high minor leaguers. For fans of Reading or LV/SWB the past few years, they have not been good teams.

I’ve long felt that ST is a test of organizational depth, and let’s face it, the Phillies have not had much with any consistency since the early 1980s. So that explains the ST record.

I think other factors are at play too—we typically play ST games against teams that have organizational depth (Twins, Blue Jays, Dodgers ~~-used to~~-, Braves). And it can be enough when you have key players in the lineup (some combo of 2-3 starters) who are “slow starters.”

Relying on hot Aug-Sept records is dangerous living, but it is exciting. Probably not sustainable however.

by Wet Luzinski on Apr 21, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Lighting a spark is all...

He’s trying to light a spark. I give him the benefit of the doubt regardless of what the last few seasons show. He’s probably doing this to reach one or two guys on the club and this is his way of sounding the alarm to the rest of the clubhouse that they should keep on each other.

by Illadelphs on Apr 21, 2009 5:09 PM EDT reply actions

agreed, it’s about as gentle a call-out as you can get. Not naming names, but clearly there’s enough back-channel so people who need to know who they are can figure it out. Chances are high that it’s the same guys who he’s called out for screwing around before (Victorino, Rollins, Myers). And it’s better than pointing to excuses (WS celebrations, death of Harry, rainouts/off days) which, while very real, always sound whiny. THis was a “let’s get back to business” talk. OK.

by Wet Luzinski on Apr 21, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions

If the World Series is, in fact, to blame for the slow start this year, then it is a small price to pay.

by FuquaManuel on Apr 21, 2009 5:53 PM EDT reply actions

I must have missed the part where Charlie said that they were playing worse this April compared to previous Aprils.

by PhDave on Apr 21, 2009 6:58 PM EDT reply actions

Of course he didn't

But if he’s saying that the World Series is causing this slow start, he’s ignoring the big elephant in the room – that his Phillies teams always have slow starts (and aren’t always coming off the World Series).

by David S. Cohen on Apr 21, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I think he's right...

That 6.87 ERA is something to worry about.

by RodeoJones on Apr 21, 2009 10:05 PM EDT reply actions

Early Phillies Analysis

I think the high ERA is not as big a concern as it seems. Cole is still warming up and we knew that coming into the season. So its really more where it was last year if you factor that in, at around 5.80 or so…For some reason, it’s just this core group of players this time of the year. Not sure if it’s the colder air or that mixed with spring training and the slow start associated with getting into the swing of things…I really think this team has a shot to repeat this year. It will all boil down to their bullpen though again. That’s why they won it all last year. Their bullpen was frankly unbelievable, maybe one of the best in history. When you think about it, without Lidge’s perfect season last year, they wouldnt have won anything, yet alone the series. I think it will be good again. As much as I want them to repeat, I personally feel like they’ll make the NLCS and lose this year for some reason, but then again, this team is the real deal so Im pulling for them all the way! GO PHILS!

by phillies09 on Apr 23, 2009 2:55 AM EDT reply actions