How'd we ever win seven?

by dajafi on Apr 25, 2009 12:01 AM EDT

With Friday night's stunning comeback win in Florida, the Phillies pulled back to within a game of .500 and drew within 3.5 games of the Marlins in the NL East. The game marked the seventh time the Phils have rallied past an opponent to victory this season... and the next time they jump out to a lead and hold it will be the first in 2009. The Phils have trailed in every one of their first 15 contests.

A related problem: Phillies pitchers have surrendered home runs in each of the first 15 games of this young season, most recently in the first inning tonight when Florida's Dan Uggla hit a three-run shot off Brett Myers. Todd Zolecki noted before the game that the Phils had set a major-league record by allowing homers in 14 straight games to start a season; now it's 15. Myers wasn't a great bet to break the string: he's given up eight home runs through his first four starts, and remains on pace to take down Bert Blyleven's single-season record.

Charlie Manuel has flashed some ire at the team's offensive lassitude--and the first eight innings tonight probably didn't do much to improve his mood--but the team has scored seven runs or more in eight of these first 15 games, with Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez all over the National League leader boards and even Pedro Feliz turning in quality at-bats. The pitching, obviously, has been the problem: a Phils starter has finished seven innings just once thus far (Myers, on April 11 in Colorado), with ace Cole Hamels having a particularly rough go of things, and every reliever other than Clay Condrey and Scott Eyre has struggled through the early action.

So it's a glass half-empty, glass half-full thing: the track records suggest that the pitching will come around, but on the other hand it's unlikely that Matt Stairs will continue coming through in every high-leverage pinch-hitting chance. Perhaps the takeaway for the time being is just to be grateful that despite a record-setting run of opponent homers and early deficits--not to mention a first three weeks jammed with distractions of celebration, grieving and rain--the Phillies are still well within striking distance.

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i see what you’re saying. but i think a lot if has to do with perception. we’ve scored 79 and surrendered 90. that does sound like 7-8. ultimately i think what is happening is that we’re scoring more of our runs late in the game and surrendering more of our runs early in the game. that’s been a mixture of poor starting and good late inning hitting. sure, matt stairs has something to do with that— three big pinch hits, two that might have changed the outcome of games— but if he hadn’t, then we’d be playing under our pythagorean record. he’s just counteracted some bad luck with some good luck.

ultimately, the reason we’re losing is that we are surrendering 20.5% HR/FB. that is unsustainable. we’ve also given up a .322 BABIP despite having good defense— that’s not sustainable either. 21.7% line drives…also not sustainable. we’ve just had some bad luck that happens in 15 game spans. this is still a 90-win team, which means they’ll probably win about 89 games given that we’re 1 game below what would be a 90-win pace. of course 89 win talent means about 82-96 games. who knows.

by Matt Swartz on Apr 25, 2009 1:36 AM EDT reply actions

exactly

That three of the wins have been somewhere between improbable and miraculous is basically what I’m getting at; it’s much easier to see how they could be 4-11 than much above .500.

I know the pitching staff will revert to its talent level. As I tried to get across in the conclusion, more than anything else I’m pleased that they’re not in a big early hole despite the flukish trailing/HR allowed in every game thing.

by dajafi on Apr 25, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions

odd

It’s been a very strange season in pretty much every meaningful way.

Like you both said, almost everything that’s been going badly for them is pretty much unsustainable, and a lot of the good things that have happened are not outlandishly improbable.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Apr 25, 2009 8:27 AM EDT reply actions

expanding...

Jimmy Rollins is not going to hit .150 all year, the pitching staff isn’t going to stay this bad (although it won’t necessarily be good), etc.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Apr 25, 2009 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions

And the good news...

…is that the Mets and Braves are scuffling as well, so the Phils aren’t behind the 8-ball as much as they were, say, at this point in 2007 (when they trailed the Mets by 5 games).

My biggest concerns right now are Rollins and Hamels getting back on track. Track record shows that it’s going to happen, and I just hope it does sooner rather than later.

by PhillyFriar on Apr 25, 2009 11:19 AM EDT reply actions