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Around SBN: Which Players Will Join The 3,000-Hit Club?

Comebacks

[Originally written as a FanPost Saturday night, but worth bumping to the front page for some Monday discussion.]

Once again, the Phillies put together a comeback tonight.  The Phillies are now 8-8, despite being behind in each of their 16 games.  When they say the Phillies have 8 comeback victories, that includes any game where they won and were behind.  That includes the Phillies' 11-4 victory that the Phillies had over the Brewers on April 21st where they responded to a first inning run by the Brewers with four of their own in the bottom of the inning.  It also includes the April 8th victory over the Braves where the Phillies trailed 10-3 in the top of the 7th.  The difference is not trivial.  In the April 21st victory, the Phillies had a 42.4% chance of winning at their lowest point (according to fangraphs.com).  On April 8th, the Phillies had a 0.7% chance of winning at their lowest point.  I went through fangraphs.com's WPA's and checked out what the lowest WPA the Phillies had in each of their 8 comeback victories.  Suprisingly enough, the Phillies have actually been very behind in most of their games.  They had a WPA of 12.3% or below in 5 of their 8 comeback victories.  The took their last lead in the 7th inning or later in 6 of their 8 comeback victories, and in the 9th or 10th in 4 of their 8 victories.  They also took their first lead in the 9th in 3 of their 8 victories.

In the following table, I wrote down the Phillies' lowest WPA in their 8 comeback victories, the inning, their runs scored and runs against, the runners on base and the outs, the date, and when they first and last led.

WPA INNING RS RA BASES OUT DATE FIRST LED LAST LED
0.7 Top 7th 3 10 empty 1 8-Apr Bottom 7th Bottom 7th
25.6 Bottom 3rd 0 2 empty 2 11-Apr Top 3rd Top 5th
11.6 Bottom 3rd 1 5 1st 1 12-Apr Top 9th Top 9th
33.5 Bottom 1st 0 1 loaded 2 13-Apr Top 2nd Top 7th
5.6 Top 6th 0 4 2nd & 3rd 1 19-Apr End 9th End 9th
42.4 Bottom 1st 0 1 2nd 1 21-Apr Bottom 1st Bottom 1st
1.5 Top 9th 0 3 empty 1 24-Apr Top 9th Top 9th
12.3 Bottom 8th 4 6 2nd 1 25-Apr Top 3rd Top 10th
3.0 Bottom 8th 7 11 empty 1 27-Apr Bottom 8th Bottom 8th

 

(Edit: I added tonight's comeback win to this table.)

 

How's that for some exciting April baseball?  Which one was your favorite?

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So they have two victories in games where they had less than a 2% chance of winning.

It’d be interesting to see how many of these types of games the typical 85-95 victory club has in a season. I’d be surprised if it was more than two. And we’re only 10% of the way into the season…

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Apr 26, 2009 9:48 AM EDT reply actions  

Is there a way to easily parse the data on this?

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Apr 28, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

that's unreal

Before the blowout today, half their wins were games in which they had less than a one-in-eight chance at the lowest point.

Great stuff.

by dajafi on Apr 26, 2009 4:31 PM EDT reply actions  

Now I’m going to start worry about ‘regressing to mean’ and come backs hurting the team to balance out

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Apr 27, 2009 4:24 PM EDT reply actions  

nah, what’s done is done. if the coin came up heads the first eight times, you still expect the same number of heads and tails for all flips after that. they have RS>RA, so they should have W>L from here out. :)

by Matt Swartz on Apr 27, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah – be rational – because being a sports fan is ALL about rationality :)

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Apr 27, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

My favorite was Sunday...

… when they got a lead and kept it. That’s good baseballsmanship. They can’t keep coming from behind all year, though it does make things interesting.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Apr 27, 2009 4:46 PM EDT reply actions  

That’s good baseballsmanship.

Very nice.

by Geoff Detweiler on Apr 29, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

BIG

FAT BUMP

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Apr 27, 2009 10:39 PM EDT reply actions  

Tonight’s game just arrived late (when else do you expect) to the party.

by Wet Luzinski on Apr 27, 2009 11:31 PM EDT reply actions  

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