Comebacks

by Matt Swartz on Apr 27, 2009 1:25 PM EDT Comment 10 comments

[Originally written as a FanPost Saturday night, but worth bumping to the front page for some Monday discussion.]

Once again, the Phillies put together a comeback tonight. The Phillies are now 8-8, despite being behind in each of their 16 games. When they say the Phillies have 8 comeback victories, that includes any game where they won and were behind. That includes the Phillies' 11-4 victory that the Phillies had over the Brewers on April 21st where they responded to a first inning run by the Brewers with four of their own in the bottom of the inning. It also includes the April 8th victory over the Braves where the Phillies trailed 10-3 in the top of the 7th. The difference is not trivial. In the April 21st victory, the Phillies had a 42.4% chance of winning at their lowest point (according to fangraphs.com). On April 8th, the Phillies had a 0.7% chance of winning at their lowest point. I went through fangraphs.com's WPA's and checked out what the lowest WPA the Phillies had in each of their 8 comeback victories. Suprisingly enough, the Phillies have actually been very behind in most of their games. They had a WPA of 12.3% or below in 5 of their 8 comeback victories. The took their last lead in the 7th inning or later in 6 of their 8 comeback victories, and in the 9th or 10th in 4 of their 8 victories. They also took their first lead in the 9th in 3 of their 8 victories.

In the following table, I wrote down the Phillies' lowest WPA in their 8 comeback victories, the inning, their runs scored and runs against, the runners on base and the outs, the date, and when they first and last led.

WPA	INNING	RS	RA	BASES	OUT	DATE	FIRST LED	LAST LED
0.7	Top 7th	3	10	empty	1	8-Apr	Bottom 7th	Bottom 7th
25.6	Bottom 3rd	0	2	empty	2	11-Apr	Top 3rd	Top 5th
11.6	Bottom 3rd	1	5	1st	1	12-Apr	Top 9th	Top 9th
33.5	Bottom 1st	0	1	loaded	2	13-Apr	Top 2nd	Top 7th
5.6	Top 6th	0	4	2nd & 3rd	1	19-Apr	End 9th	End 9th
42.4	Bottom 1st	0	1	2nd	1	21-Apr	Bottom 1st	Bottom 1st
1.5	Top 9th	0	3	empty	1	24-Apr	Top 9th	Top 9th
12.3	Bottom 8th	4	6	2nd	1	25-Apr	Top 3rd	Top 10th
3.0	Bottom 8th	7	11	empty	1	27-Apr	Bottom 8th	Bottom 8th

(Edit: I added tonight's comeback win to this table.)

How's that for some exciting April baseball? Which one was your favorite?

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2%

So they have two victories in games where they had less than a 2% chance of winning.

It’d be interesting to see how many of these types of games the typical 85-95 victory club has in a season. I’d be surprised if it was more than two. And we’re only 10% of the way into the season…

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Apr 26, 2009 9:48 AM EDT reply actions

Is there a way to easily parse the data on this?

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Apr 28, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions

that's unreal

Before the blowout today, half their wins were games in which they had less than a one-in-eight chance at the lowest point.

Great stuff.

by dajafi on Apr 26, 2009 4:31 PM EDT reply actions

Now I’m going to start worry about ‘regressing to mean’ and come backs hurting the team to balance out

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Apr 27, 2009 4:24 PM EDT reply actions

nah, what’s done is done. if the coin came up heads the first eight times, you still expect the same number of heads and tails for all flips after that. they have RS>RA, so they should have W>L from here out. :)

by Matt Swartz on Apr 27, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah – be rational – because being a sports fan is ALL about rationality :)

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Apr 27, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions

My favorite was Sunday...

… when they got a lead and kept it. That’s good baseballsmanship. They can’t keep coming from behind all year, though it does make things interesting.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Apr 27, 2009 4:46 PM EDT reply actions