The Pitching: Just How Bad Is It?

by David S. Cohen on Apr 28, 2009 12:24 PM EDT

The Phillies have played incredibly exciting baseball through the first 18 games. We have detailed their amazing comebacks already. Much of that is thanks to their once-again-prodigious offense. They are third in the league in runs scored (behind two teams that have played 2 more games than they have) and second in home runs (behind a team that has played 1 more game).

And yet they are only 10-8. And we know why: the pitching has been horrendous. At 5.98, the Phillies have the worst ERA in the National Leauge. They've given up 107 runs, tied for the most in the NL. And, all of them have been earned, as the Phillies haven't let up a single unearned run. The next highest earned run total for any NL team is 96 (Rockies). The team's 5 quality starts is the worst in the NL, two behind several other teams at 7.

So just how bad is the Phillies pitching right now? So bad that you have to go back to September 5, 2007, to find this bad a run over 18 games. Over the 18 games ending on September 5, 2007, the Phillies gave up 116 runs and had a 6.24 ERA.

Over the course of all of last year, the Phillies didn't have an 18 game stretch where they even approached being this bad. The worst 18-game ERA the Phils had was 4.92. That ERA, for the 18 games ending August 5, 2008, is a full run better than the Phils' ERA so far this year. The worst 18-game total of runs scored against the Phillies last year was 102, for the stretch of 18 games ending July 27. Unlike the current ugly stretch, the pitchers were victimized by bad fielding in July 2008, as they allowed only 90 earned runs (with 12 unearned).

The good news, of course, is that the Phillies are 10-8. Over the awful stretch of pitching in 2007, the Phillies were 8-10. Over the 18 games ending July 27, 2008, when the Phillies gave up 102 runs, they were also 8-10.

So their offense is clearly picking up some of the slack that the pitching is generating. But winning despite this level of pitching is undoubtedly not a recipe for sustained success.

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Comments

wow

Yeah it’s been holy-crap terrible. I think we all expected some regression due to some anomalous numbers, but this is flat-out ridiculous.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Apr 28, 2009 12:41 PM EDT reply actions

I think MattS has presented the numbers regarding flyball/HR rate, and found that they are flukishly unsustainable. So that’s something. And if Hamels is physically okay, they’re sure to get more out of him. Probably Myers too.

What should be interesting is how they handle the bullpen. I don’t believe anyone is very surprised to see regression from the likes of Durbin. Taschner is just a poor pitcher, and Eyre will have games like last night when he’s helpless. Happ is a decent pitcher who has performed in the role thus far, but he might be needed in the rotation.

Lidge and Madson are superior arms who should perform if healthy, and I basically feel that way about Romero as well. But the other four relievers should be considered fungible, particularly with viable in-house options like Majewski and Walker at triple-A and Escalona and Bastardo at AA. By mid or late May they might want to start switching some of the middle relievers out.

by dajafi on Apr 28, 2009 1:09 PM EDT reply actions

irrelevant to the topic...

But I love that the byline on the AP photo you posted is “H RUMPH.”

Harumph!

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Apr 28, 2009 2:31 PM EDT reply actions

Really really bad.

by FuquaManuel on Apr 28, 2009 2:36 PM EDT reply actions

myers has got to be gone next year right?

he is consistently inconsistent. he can mentally collapse at any given time.

by umdeagle on Apr 28, 2009 4:00 PM EDT reply actions

market

I think you have to see how the market shakes out. I’d rather take a flyer on bringing him back than in bringing in the equivalent of a Jason Marquis.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Apr 28, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions

a name for you

Oliver Perez. He’s the Mets’ Myers, a talented guy who sometimes seems like he’s never before picked up a baseball. That team pretty clearly didn’t want to bring him back, but when other options didn’t work out they wound up giving him a deal that I bet Myers would jump at, were the Phils to offer it today.

Maybe a long way of saying what WC said—way too soon to tell.

by dajafi on Apr 28, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions