Thoughts on the NL East Race

Very well stated, my friend.

The Braves are certainly much-improved from last year, especially the rotation, but I likewise have serious concerns about their less-than-inpsiring bullpen and their offensive production if Chipper spends any appreciable length of time on the DL (and when’s the last time that failed to happen?).

The one area in which the Phils can legitimately expect a regression is health: I don’t foresee another season in which no starting pitchers hit the DL (Adam Eaton and his mental problems don’t count), and while Moyer/Park/Happ could prove to be somewhat replaceable for a stretch, the same can’t be said for Hamels and (a hopefully focused) Myers. But you’re right in saying that the offense shouldn’t really be any worse; downturns from Victorino and Werth should be more than compensated for by improved seasons from Rollins, Howard, and even Ruiz to an extent.

I’ve got the Mets winning the division in a tight race, but you’ve done a good job highlighting their issues as well. Unless Niese makes a quantum leap, the Mets don’t have the pitching depth to withstand any real injuries to their rotation. Furthermore, the supporting cast around their superstars (Castillo, Schneider, Church, Delgado, Murphy) all have serious question marks surrounding them.

Would it shock me to see the Phillies miss the playoffs? No. It wouldn’t even shock me to see us finish 3rd, provided some injuries befall the club. But I will indeed be shocked if both the Mets and Braves by more than 5 games apiece.

Yeah, I probably undersold the Mets a little in the above. Probably their top five players are as good as or even a tiny bit better than ours. But between the five names you mentioned and Perez/Maine/Pelfrey in the rotation, they’re counting on a lot of people who seem fairly likely to decline, get hurt, or both.

It’s over – the phils are screwed – they will be pwned by the braves all season long – probably the mets and nationals too – sigh – i was so looking forward to this season

The Braves scored the 3rd most runs in the NL last season after the All-Star Break (ie. only like 10 games with Tex) and everyone from that lineup returns. Certainly Chipper won’t be as good as he was last season, but Francoeur cannot possible be any worse (I hope), Schafer has the potential to be better than anything we threw in CF last season, and as much as I hate Garret Anderson he should be better than what we had in LF last season…especially if Cox platoons him correct with Diaz (which I fear may not happen).

If you’re gonna rip us you should at least do the proper research. Good luck tonight.

While the Braves did, in fact, score the third-most runs in the NL after the ASB last year, they also posted only the eighth-best OPS during that time period. I suspect that a lot of their success had to do with (a) dumb luck, and (b) Chipper Jones’ ridiculous .466 OBP, which he is unlikely to come anywhere close to repeating over a full season this year.

i’m very bearish on francoeur and very bullish in chipper based on my own research (which is mostly on BABIP lately). francoeur has a lot of traits associated with low babip rather than average or high. he pops out a lot. he is not particular fast. he does not spread the ball around all that well. he swings at a lot of pitches out the strike zone. his contact rate is poor. all of those things are associated with bad babip on flyballs (infield flies), bad babip on groundballs (lack of infield hits without reaching on errors enough to make you call that into question; also bad contact rate and bad plate discipline means chopping a lot of groundballs rather than making solid contact), and his babip on line drives is pretty much good as expected, since he has good power. that amount to a lowish babip. with poor contact and unspectacular power, i think .260/.310/.410 is about right.

chipper is simply an incredible hitter, and there’s nothing about his high babips that indicate he is much of a fluke. he rarely pops out, has excellent power, he has good contact skills, a great eye, and spreads the ball around reasonably well. his babip from last year isn’t gonna stay at .383 or anything but chipper really should be in line for a .330/.420/.520 kind of season. of course, he could get hurt, which would be nice for the phillies’ chances.

mccann is a beast too. and i’m reasonably bullish about escobar and kelly johnson too.

but the outfield looks awful. they have almost no power. schafer’s line is a BABIP illusion, belied by weak peripherals and little history of success beyond last year. anderson looks close to done. francoeur looks unlikely to rebound. the only thing is that if atlanta can stay in the race, trading for an outfielder isn’t all that impossible since they have a few positions where an upgrade can be made. teams with position flexibility or back of the rotation gaps can be upgraded at the trade deadline much more easily than teams which have very specific holes for which no one might be available.

First, I’ll cop to not knowing the “third in runs after the break in 2008” stat, and grant that it’s a perfectly valid point to bring up.

But I still think it’s more likely that the Braves will finish with around the 753 runs they scored last season than the 799 Sheehan forecast for them. To explain myself a little more, here’s a quick and dirty take. Of their eight starters, I see:

—two excellent hitters, Jones and McCann, who are likely to get about 75-80 percent of the at-bats at their positions (because Jones always misses time and McCann is a catcher)
—two above-average hitters, Escobar and Johnson, who are likely to get upwards of 90 percent of the ABs at their positions
—four average to below-average hitters, the three OFs and Kotchman, whom I’m guessing will consume 80 percent or so of the ABs at those positions (combining Anderson and Diaz as “one guy” might boost them closer to Escobar/Johnson; I really wanted the Phils to go after Diaz as a platoon partner for Jenkins or Stairs rather than overspend on Ibanez).

We’ll assume that the balance of the ABs from those positions will be about replacement level. Prado can’t hit, but Dave Ross has a solid bat for a backup C, Norton and Infante have their uses, etc.

For them to come close to 800 runs will require the four above-average to excellent bats to meet or exceed what’s expected of them in terms of performance and playing time, and for probably two of the other four to step up (or, maybe more realistic, be replaced from outside). I like Schaefer long-term but expecting more than something like .270/.330/.420 out of him (itself a much higher projection than BP offers) in 2009 is unrealistic. I really don’t like Kotchman’s bat, though maybe I’m too pessimistic given that he’s 26 and has shown some idea of the strike zone. Francoeur and Anderson were discussed above.

The first series suggested that the Braves will go as far as their pitching takes them. Aside from the late bullpen meltdown (by the middle relievers, the least reliable guys) yesterday, were I a Braves fan I’d feel pretty comfortable with that. They might not need to score 800 runs to get back to the playoffs.