Cole Hamels' First Start of the Season Tomorrow

by David S. Cohen on Apr 9, 2009 10:20 AM EDT

Let's say your team has a 25 year old ace with a history of arm trouble. Let's also pretend your ace pitched more innings than ever last year . . . by a lot. And, many of those innings were high pressure, as your team was skilled and lucky enough to make it to the playoffs and win the championship. Amazingly, your young ace was unbelievable in the post-season, despite being new to October play and the pressure that comes with it.

Now let's say that your ace, who signed a bit of a discounted long-term deal in the off-season, no doubt in part because of the history of arm trouble that he's had, shows up in spring training and within a couple of weeks is complaining of tightness in his throwing elbow. He has the elbow checked out by a doctor synonymous with "out 3 to 6 months" and miraculously is pronounced healthy with no structural damage.

You're out of the woods (for now). Except you still need to get your ace into regular season shape while making sure the tightness (or any other problem) doesn't re-appear. He makes a few starts in low-pressure spring games, and in his last exhibition start, he throws 83 pitches, giving up 6 earned runs in 5 innings. Not a bad performance, especially with 7 strike outs. But, not great either.

You now have to think of the regular season and when he makes his first start. You look at your calendar and see that games 4 through 6 of your season are being played at an extreme hitter's park that messes with pitchers' heads about as much as it messes with their stuff. True, the park isn't as bad as it has been in years past, but it's still one of the most hitting-friendly parks in the majors.

Just past those three games are three more games in a basically neutral park. It's new and doesn't have any history of ripping into the psyche of pitchers. If anything, it has a reputation of being a bit of a pitchers' park, even if the numbers don't bear that out.

One more factor to add in here: your ace has never in his career pitched in the hitters' park or, in the regular season, against the team that plays in the hitters' park. On the other hand, your ace has a 0.00 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 17 Ks in 14.3 innings at the neutral park. Against the team that plays in the neutral park, your ace has a career 2.04 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 83 Ks in 79.3 innings.

With all this information, when do you get your ace his first regular season start?

If you're the Phillies, you pitch Cole Hamels in Colorado (the hitters park) in game 4 rather than waiting three to five games to pitch him in Washington (the neutral park). And that's just idiotic.

Hamels dominates the Nationals, even more so at Nationals Park. He obviously feels comfortable against the team and in their park. On the other hand, he has faced the Rockies only once, losing to them in the post-season in Philadelphia. He has never faced the team in the regular season, and has never pitched in Colorado.

Why in the world risk his precious, fragile arm in an environment that is known for torturing pitchers, even if less so now than several years ago? Why risk him compensating for ineffective stuff (something Colorado is known for) by altering his mechanics even slightly? Why risk him overthrowing to make up for the combination of rust and altitude? Why take any gamble with this rarest of commodities, a young lefty dominant ace, in the first week of a 162 game season?

There's just no reason to start Cole Hamels' season in game 4 in Colorado rather than in games 7 through 9 in Washington. Even if the start turns out fine, the risk isn't worth it, and the Phillies are being incredibly stupid with the future of the franchise.

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Comments

Now that’s thinking with your dipstick, Jimmy.

by FuquaManuel on Apr 9, 2009 9:58 AM EDT reply actions

strategery

The whole thing strikes me as poor management of resources. Sure, you want Hamels to get on a regular schedule, but Colorado? I winced when I first heard the plan. Hopefully it won’t be a disaster.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Apr 9, 2009 10:27 AM EDT reply actions

I see the point. I think this is just an integral part of Charlie’s managerial philosophy: that it’s a long season and that it’s more important to keep an even keel and block out day-to-day circumstances than it is to get yourself an advantage in any one particular game. I think he believes that “gaming” the rotation based on the ballparks would encourage fear and divert focus onto subjects other than performance.

by taco pal on Apr 9, 2009 11:08 AM EDT reply actions

My initial reaction was much the same as Dave’s, but this sounds right to me. They’re going to be careful with him—90 to 95 pitches max, and when you add in Cole’s willingness to be assertive about his own condition and the general good judgment Manuel and Dubee show, I’m not all that worried.

Though if the schedule had been such that he’d be debuting in Florida or Houston or San Diego, yeah, that would have been preferable.

by dajafi on Apr 9, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions

but that's exactly it

That it’s a long season is exactly why Colorado should be avoided. There’s just no need, when we’ve got 159 games to go, to risk Cole doing something intentionally or unintentionally to compensate. It’s more important to look to the long term than to risk him in game 4. I’m not saying he’s going to intentionally do anything different, but if he unintentionally compensates in a way that throws off his mechanics, that’s dangerous. There’s no reason to risk him.

by David S. Cohen on Apr 9, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m certainly no expert, but I would think that Hamels would be well-suited to pitching in Coors. A FB/CU combination should play just as well in the thin air as anywhere else, because he’s not relying on break. His curve probably wouldn’t be as effective but he doesn’t throw it that much anyway.

by phatj on Apr 9, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions

this guy

what a maroon!

by phatj on Apr 10, 2009 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Ha

You weren’t counting on his fastball topping out at 48mph.

by David S. Cohen on Apr 10, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions

me

in junior high

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Apr 10, 2009 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions

But…but…he’s sooo dreamy! Seriously—man-crush aside, it’s a pity he has to go from the weather of game 5.1 to this, per NWS:

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. South southeast wind between 8 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Why not Monday 3:05 in Washington? NWS predicts:

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 57.

by Wet Luzinski on Apr 9, 2009 8:42 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah

Just another reason this is stupid.

by David S. Cohen on Apr 9, 2009 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I usually agree with just about everything that you write, David, however I am afraid we disagree here. Both the Phillies and Hamels have been so proactive about his health, that I am confident he is both healthy and ready to throw ~90 pitches. Now, obviously these are not ideal pitching conditions for any pitcher at any point in the season, however, if Hamels is truly the ace of the staff (and, assuming good health), then he and the Phillies cannot be scared off by pitching in any park. Also, this is just an off the wall opinion, but Hamels does not seem like the type of pitcher to be scared by a park, weather conditions, aliens, William Shatner or anything else that us mere mortals would find frightening. Thus, I expect a FU attitude where he throws what he has and sees if the opposing Colorado Rockies can handle it. In translation, I do not expect any mechanical changes.

by Neduol Caz on Apr 10, 2009 5:43 AM EDT reply actions

Couldn’t agree more. I’d be handling him with kid gloves.

by Old Grandad on Apr 10, 2009 6:07 AM EDT reply actions

I believe the issue comes down to whether or not you believe Hamels is healthy. The Phillies have treated Hamels with “kid gloves” for a long time now, and have always erred on the side of caution with him. In addition, Hamels himself has always been his biggest safeguard, taking his health very seriously. So, if the Phillies are allowing him to start and Hamels wants to start, then I believe he is healthy and ready for it. The fact that the Phillies are playing at Coors should really have nothing to do with it. If Hamels is healthy, then he is the ace, and the ace of your staff cannot be bumped from games due to ballparks or cold weather. I geuss, what I am trying to say, is that I completely agree that young arms should always be treated with kid gloves (whether it is Hamels or, say, Brummett). However, I do not believe in handling the mental/psychological aspect of the game with kids gloves.

by Neduol Caz on Apr 10, 2009 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions

uhh

how about his left hand with a kid glove, and his right hand with a ‘grown up’ glove… hahah
i understand the concern but where is the jubilation of seeing our game 5 winner back in action? i’m extremely excited to watch him get out there and (hopefully) mow down the silver bullets…
i would, however, have a plan b (park/happ) ready at the first sign of any sort of problem…
4th inning? cole walks 2 and then lets up a double? then another walk? okay take him out… but if that doesn’t happen, then it’s all gravy and we’ll all be back on here tomorrow talking about cole’s 7 IP 9 SO 1 BB brilliant debut… lets all hope for the latter…

by PHIGHTINPHILS on Apr 10, 2009 9:40 AM EDT reply actions