Phillies vs. Mets: May 1-3

The series that I've had on my calendar for months finally begins on Friday night at Citizens Bank Park, and I am excited to go to both Friday and Saturday's game.  The Phillies/Mets rivalry has been a particularly thrilling one to go through as a Phillies fan, since the Phillies clearly have jumped ahead in the budding rivalry.  After two straight division titles, the Phillies are already 2.5 games ahead of the Mets coming into this weekend.  A sweep in either direction changes the complexity of the division early on.  Neither team will trot out their ace this series, which is fine by me given Santana's early season dominance.  The rest of the Mets rotation and all of the Phillies rotation have been less than stellar thus far.  The Phillies poor starting pitching performance seems to be mostly homerun based, while the Mets has been control and command problems. Given the persistence of walk and strikeout issues and the volatility in performance in homeruns, that seems to point in the Phillies favor.  The Mets offense has not been particularly productive thus far, but they are a great hitting team who is a threat to strike at any time.  Particularly, the middle of their order can be deadly.  The Phillies will hope to keep them struggling further this weekend.

Friday 7:05: Chan Ho Park (R) vs. Mike Pelfrey (R)
Saturday 3:40: Jamie Moyer (L) vs. Oliver Perez (L)
Sunday 1:35: Joe Blanton (R) vs. John Maine (R)

I did a little bit of extra detail for this series, so let me know what you think.  Specifically, I added this season's statistics next to each player's name as one month of data is now somewhat useful information and valuable in addition to looking at the projections of top systems.  I also include pitcher vs. batter matchups for the entire staff of both teams, rather than just the starters.  I still hesitate to value this information too strongly, and I still think it's best to look at tendencies towards certain types of hitters and pitchers rather than small sample sizes, but especially for batter/pitcher matchups with several homeruns or very out of whack K/BB numbers, this could certainly be useful information.  Let me know if anyone has other suggestions about what type of stuff to include in these matchups.  If it's not too hard, I'll try to include them for subsequent series.  Go Phils!


The Mets have a few superstars in their lineup, and mediocre talent elsewhere.  Jose Reyes and David Wright remain the best left side of an infield of any pair in the game.  Both have struggled in the early going, but should expect great seasons again.  David Wright may be one of the very best players in baseball, and despite the Mets' fans irrational claims of choking, Wright is an excellent hitter in all situations.  Daniel Murphy is the second hitter in the lineup and is an awkward bridge from Reyes to Wright/Delgado/Beltran.  Murphy is a mediocre players in reality, whose great average last season and early this season is belied by incredible and unsustainable luck on balls in play.  Delgado is not the hitter he once was, and is showing signs again early of hitting for less power.  Beltran has been excellent in the five hole, as expected.  Passed that point, Ryan Church is only okay, and Castillo and Castro are pretty weak hitters.  Castillo seemingly has become healthy this year, and thus improved on his awful 2008, but he's still a powerless hitter.

1) SS Jose Reyes (S): .284/.364/.386

projection average (proj): .295/.355/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8.5%
projected K/AB (k): 12%
career gb% (gb): 45%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 11%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): pretty high due to speed, and does well on groundballs, should do decently on line drives due to power and infield playing in, but he does pop up a decent amount, maybe around .310
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): average eye, makes above average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .766/.792 ops; 1.4 vs 1.6 k/bb; power similar,  babip slightly better vs lhp
home/away (h/a): very similar except better babip at home by a lot .326/.294 causing OPS diff .790/.756
pull/opposite (p/o): pull hitter
anything else (other):

2) LF Daniel Murphy (L): .324/.373/.426

proj: .270/.330/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 16%
gb: 44%
iff: 8%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected high because it was high last year, but highly suspect due to lack of infield hits or major power, probably closer to average.  last year, he put a lot of groundballs in the hole, but in 58 groundballs, probably 18 getting through the hole is just noise.  does spread ball around well, but expect only slightly above average babip
s/c/z: poor eye but above average contact
r/l:  some struggles against lefties in minors but not much, need more info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around well
other: has done well against power pitchers in minimal experience...too early to tell though if this is a legit skill or noise

3) 3B David Wright (R): .280/.372/.390

proj: .310/.395/.535
bb: 13%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: makes very solid contact and has decent contact skill, so above average, especially since he spreads the ball around well.  expect .325ish on balls in play
s/c/z: great eye, slightly above average contact, and sees a lot of strikes for a guy of his skill (lineup spot)
r/l: .888/1.018; 1.7 vs 1.0 k/bb; .322 vs .350 babip; a little more power vs lhp as well.  just use righties
h/a: .959 vs .886; 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; especially large difference given park effects
p/o: spreads ball around very well for a power hitter
other: none

4) 1B Carlos Delgado (L): .250/.346/.471

proj: .260/.350/.485
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 39% career but 44% last year
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: below average-- tends to poorly on groundballs partly because of speed and also because of shift
s/c/z: swings a lot and makes pretty bad contact, sees fewer strikes than most
r/l: .983 vs .805 ops; 1.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .942 vs .919 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

5) CF Carlos Beltran (S): .388/.473/.538

proj: .275/.360/.500
bb: 13%
k: 18%
gb: 42%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: slightly below average-- pops up somewhat frequently, and predictably pull hitting
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact though his eye isn't as good as it used to be
r/l: .844 vs .880; only slight difference in babip makes difference
h/a: .841 vs .865, probably just park factors though
p/o: definite pull hitter both sides
other: better against power pitchers

6) RF Ryan Church (L): .313/.397/.448

proj: .270/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 43%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
s/c/z: swings slightly more than average and makes contact less than average
r/l: .836 vs .730 ops; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb even though he is mostly sheltered from tough lefties
h/a: .786 vs .833 ops but 2.2 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

7) 2B Luis Castillo (S): .370/.433/.444

proj: .275/.355/.350
bb: 10.5%
k: 10.5%
gb: 63%
iff: 10%
ifh: 11%
s/c/z: great eye, good patience, excellent contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .697 vs .797; but almost entirely due to power difference-- 2 HR in 4242 AB as lefty and 24 HR in 1504 AB as righty
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pulll hitter as righty, almost never pulls ball as lefty
other: none

8) C Ramon Castro (R): .233/.303/.333

proj: .250/.315/.450
bb: 8.5%
k: 25%
gb: 35%
iff: 16%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average as he pops up a lot, doesn't beat out infield hits, and is a very strong pull hitter
s/c/z: good eye but below average contact
r/l: .710 vs .765 ops; 2.6 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .678 vs .759; a lot more doubles on road
p/o: very disticnt pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers, specifically a babip issue-- probably hits fewer popups against them


The  Mets bench is not particularly good, especially from the left side where they only have Cora and Reed.  Tatis was bound to regress this year after a revival in 2008, but he has hit the ball well so far.  Sheffield seems to be just barely holding on.

IF Alex Cora (L): .238/.346/.333

proj: .245/.320/.345
bb: 7%
k: 12%
gb: 47%
iff: 13%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average as he's slow and pops out a lot, and also doesn't have very hard contact
s/c/z: very good contact, average eye but pretty patient
r/l: 1.6 vs 3.0 k/bb; but .656 vs .686 ops-- main difference is babip and probably doesn't face top lefties
h/a: slightly better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

OF Fernando Tatis (R): .348/.407/.609

proj: .265/.335/.435
bb: 9%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: about average
s/c/z: decent eye but not so patient, below average contact
r/l: virtually no difference
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .796 vs .784 ops-- main difference is k/bb which itself isn't high
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against flyball pitchers

OF Jeremy Reed (L): .273/.333/.455

proj: .270/.320/.390
bb: 7%
k: 13%
gb: 49%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: slightly below average due to weak power and popup rate
s/c/z: decent eye and contact skill
r/l: .723 vs .433 ops; no power vs lefties at all
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

OF Gary Sheffield (R): .167/.324/.367

proj: .250/.340/.420
bb: 12%
k: 17%
gb: 43%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: sinking
s/c/z: had good eye though not really more than average anymore, still making slightly above average contact
r/l: .897 vs .947, not much difference overall though
h/a: .932 vs .887, 0.7 vs 0.9 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

C Omir Santos (R): .269/.269/.500

proj: .245/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 20%
gb: 43% in minors in 2008
iff: 13% in minors in 2008
ifh: none yet in majors, can't find information on infield hits in minors, but he is a catcher.
babip: projected around .280 or so, which seems consistent with infield fly rate and speed
s/c/z: thus far, bad eye and slightly above average contact
r/l: seemingly better against lefties as expected but tough to see
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

DISABLED LIST: C Brian Schneider (L): .143/.250/.190

proj: .250/.330/.360
bb: 11%
k: 16%
gb: 49%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
s/c/z: good eye, average contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .719 vs .624 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .716 vs .684 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none


The Mets have what may be the best pitcher in baseball in Johan Santana, but luckily, the Phillies do not have to play him this weekend.  He has been even better than his normal self this year with an ERA barely over 1.  The rest of the Mets rotation has been terrible.  The Mets seem to be considering making irrational changes to their rotation, which certainly be nice for the Phillies.  None of Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez are very good pitchers but they are all servicable pitchers going through rough patches.  Perez seems to be the most questionable, and the Phillies will play him Saturday night.  He has performed well against the Phillies in his career, though the Phillies may be catching him at a weak time.  Pelfrey will pitch first, though, on Friday night.  He has struggled with both too many walks and not enough strikeouts this year.  His success continues to be based on his ability to get groundballs, and he has continued to get them this year.  Last year's performance was largely related to luck on avoiding homeruns, but this year, he has been unlucky with homeruns/flyball.  The Phillies square off against John Maine on Sunday.  His health was a question at the end of last year, and maybe that is true again this year.  He is having control problems in the early going.  I've heard it said that could be indicative of elbow issues, but I don't know if that is true.

FRIDAY'S OPPONENT: Mike Pelfrey (R): 6.32 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 3.4 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 6.62 FIP, 55% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 81% fb (includes sinkers), 13% sl, 5% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .698 vs .850 ops; 2.5 vs 0.8 k/bb-- major advantage for lhb against him
h/a: 1.7 vs 1.15 k/bb; .730 vs .828 ops

Pelfrey vs. Phillies:

Howard: 2/9, 3 BB, 2 K, 0 XBH
Utley: 3/11, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 3/9, 0 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/6, 0 BB, 0 K,
Rollins: 2/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 1 BB

SATURDAY'S OPPONENT: Oliver Perez (L): 9.31 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.81 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 33%
pitches: 69% fb, 27% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .764 vs .693 ops; 1.7 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .711 vs .795 ops; 2.0 vs 1.9 k/bb

Perez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 7/25, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Howard: 2/22, 1 HR, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Werth: 4/15, 1 HR, 6 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Utley: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 3 HBP
Feliz: 1/17, 2 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 3/13, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 4/9, 2 2B, 3 BB, 2 K
Coste: 1/7, 2 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 2/6, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY'S OPPONENT: John Maine (R): 5.40 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.79 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 70% fb, 18% ch, 10% sl, 1% cb
r/l: .662 vs .756 ops; 3.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: very similar home & away

Maine vs. Phillies:

Utley: 7/22, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 SF
Howard: 5/23, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/25, 3 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 6/19, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Coste: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Cairo: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Livan Hernandez (R): 6.33 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 2.1 HR/9, 5.94 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 5.25 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 72% fb, 17% sl, 7% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 2.5 vs 1.4 k/bb; .754 vs .805 ops
h/a: similar k/bb but more power surrendered away

Hernandez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 9/51, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Utley: 8/24, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Cairo: 2/19, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K, 1 Sac
Howard: 3/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Feliz: 4/18, 1 BB, 3 K
Stairs: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Johan Santana (L): 1.10 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 12.1 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.10 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 60% fb, 29% ch, 12% sl
r/l: .637 vs .660 ops; 3.8 vs 3.6 k/bb-- virtually no difference, somewhat of a reverse platoon split but almost definitely is selection bias where managers rest bad lefties against him
h/a: 3.9 vs 3.6 k/bb; .634 vs .651 ops

Santana vs. Phillies

Ibanez: 12/34, 1 HR, 2 BB, 8 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Feliz: 3/19, 0 BB, 6 K
Rollins: 1/17, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 3/18, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Werth: 5/16, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Howard: 6/14, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 4/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Cairo: 3/12, 2 2B, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 Sac
Victorino: 1/12, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 0/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K


The revitalized Mets bullpen has been less than shut down thus far.  K-Rod has been pretty decent so far, although it is early.  Putz has been wild and failed to strike many people out early on.  Certainly, this does not mean that the moves failed, but that won't stop Mets fans from overreacting.  Other than those two, the Mets bullpen is pretty average.  Feliciano is a very good LOOGY who gives Ryan Howard fits, and does pretty well against Utley too.  The Mets also have one other lefty recently jointly, Japanese player Ken Takahashi.  There isn't much information for me to go on there.

CL Francisco Rodriguez (R): 2.08 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 12.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.29 ERA, 26% GB

proj avg: 2.80 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 11.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 51% fb, 32% sl, 17% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.5 k/bb; .523 vs .628 ops
h/a: slight home advantage but not huge

Rodriguez vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/22, 1 BB, 9 K, 0 XBH
Stairs: 0/6, 3 Bb, 2 K
Cairo: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 2/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1 IBB

J.J. Putz (R): 4.09 ERA, 4.9 BB/9, 3.3 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 4.08 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 3.10 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 67% fb, 20% cb, 9% sl, 2% ct, 1% cb
r/l: 2.9 vs 3.4 k/bb; .589 vs .697 ops
h/a: 3.4 vs 2.9 k/bb; .595 vs .699 ops

Putz vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 1/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Cairo: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 sac
Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Pedro Feliciano (L): 3.68 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 12.3 K/9, 0.00 HR/9, 1.27 FIP, 72% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 55% fb, 38% sl, 6% cb, 0.2% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 3.7 k/bb!  .787 vs .569 ops!  major loogy!
h/a: 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb; .683 vs .702 ops-- a little better on road

Feliciano vs. Phillies:

Utley: 4/23, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 12 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/21, 1 HR, 0 BB, 7 K
Rollins: 5/18, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 1/14, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 1/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Sean Green (R): 8.49 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 5.06 FIP, 60% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 78% fb, 19% sl, 2% cb, 1% ch
r/l: 2.8 vs 0.7 k/bb; .680 vs .839 ops-- big advantage for lhb!
h/a: slightly better away

Green vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 0/2, O BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Cairo: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Bobby Parnell (R): 1.74 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.98 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 86% fb, 13% sl, 2% ch
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Parnell has not played vs. Phillies

Darren O'Day (R): 0.00 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.72 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 54%
pitches: 72% fb, 28% sl
r/l: 2.4 vs 1.6 k/bb; .709 vs .766
h/a: not enough info

O'Day vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/1, 1 IBB

Ken Takahashi (L)

Takahashi has yet to pitch in the majors and only has thrown to 48 hitters in the minors this year.  So there is not much MLB or MiLB information on him.  In Japan, he seemed to be an aging mediocre pitcher, but I imagine he's there to retire the lefties when the Mets are hoarding Pedro Feliciano.



The heart of the Phillies lineup leans further to the left than Ralph Nader.  The rest of the lineup is pretty well balanced, but with Utley hitting 3rd, Howard hitting 4th, and Ibanez hitting 6th, managers have an advantage to use lefties against the Phillies in key situations.  Both of the switch hitters atop the lineup hit lefties a little better than righties, and the bottom of the lineup has two righties.  The Phillies' catcher Carlos Ruiz is on the disabled list now with a strained rib cage, so Chris Coste and Lou Marson have been splitting time with Coste starting more often.  Lou Marson is a pretty highly touted catching prospect who had an extraordinary year in AA last year, though has yet to hit for much power.  Carlos Ruiz had a setback but seems to be likely to return soon.  This season, the Phillies have seen Rollins struggle at the top of the lineup, though he has shown a few signs of life recently.  Utley and Ibanez have both been on fire and have carried the team.  The offense has been spectacular thus far, mostly because of those two, and as Howard continues to hit the ball hard, the team is probably going to see a breakout from him soon too.  Though Howard has only homered four times in the first twenty games, he has hit an extraordinary number of deep fly balls to the track, and no less than in seasons passed.  I expect a homerun tear out of Howard soon, though reading through that, I kind of feel like I just predicted the sun to rise.

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .207/.241/.293

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb.  otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .286/.337/.476

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .342/.461/.644

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .288/.367/.525

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep.  also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though.  probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes.  however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him.  he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!"  in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably.  his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp.  he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip.  i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road.  very similar hr numbers.  2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .260/.372/.438

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .359/.433/.718

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .323/.395/.477

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes.  swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home.  likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Chris Coste (R): .175/.267/.275

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat


Like their lineup, the Phillies' bench is much better from the left side.  Dobbs and Stairs are two solid lefthanded pinch hitters with power.  Stairs is by far more patient and is much more successful against lefties than Dobbs.  From the right side, the Phillies have superutility man Eric Bruntlett.  Bruntlett struggles mightily against RHP, but actually has very solid numbers against LHP.  Bruntlett can be used as a counterswitch when managers bring in lefties to face Dobbs or Stairs.  The Phillies other RHB on the bench is Miguel Cairo.  He is not a very good hitter, but is flexible and can play many positions.  Cairo has failed to hit anything yet, and is bound to be on the way out.

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .176/.200/.353

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually  average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb.  he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .111/.200/.111

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters.  given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp.  in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp.  he should never see them.  absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .308/.400/.769

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF/OF Miguel Cairo (R): .000/.000/.000

proj: .255/.315/.335
bb: 7%
k: 15%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: not much power so slightly below average
s/c/z: okay eye, maybe a little above average; makes good contact
r/l: 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb; .647 vs .735 ops
h/a: virtually no split at all, somewhat better walk rate at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

C Lou Marson (R): .235/.350/.294

proj: .270/.345/.400
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 59% in minors in 08
iff: 7% in minors in 08
ifh: ?
babip: very above average in minors, bizarrely high on flyballs and groundballs, and this seems to be without a significant reason
s/c/z: ?
r/l: better k/bb in minors vs rhp but tough to tell
h/a: 0.7 vs 1.5 k/bb; much higher infield fly rate on road (10.6% vs 3.5%)
p/o: ?
other: high walk rate in minors may be at risk in majors if he doesn't develop power

DISABLED LIST: Carlos Ruiz (R): .273/.333/.364

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey.  his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought


The Phillies rotation has struggled a lot early, though they seem to be mostly struggling with bad luck rather than bad performances.  Their walk and strikeout rates across the board are indicative that we should expect similar performances to last season, and their groundball rates haven't been out of the norm either.  However, all of them seem to struggling on homeruns per flyball.  This is known to be a luck based statistic, with little variance in skill level, so it is somewhat hard to believe that they would necessarily continue to perform this badly.  However, it does seem coincidental that all of them would struggle with it at once.  The Phillies go with Chan Ho Park Friday, in what is a very important fourth start for him.  He has been poor in one start and mediocre in the other two, and the Phillies do have J.A. Happ ready to replace him if they want.  His strong Spring Training performance was so good that it shattered any argument of "small sample size" and instead calls into question a biased sample, where he may have faced some weaker hitters.  Even still, he seems to have a K/BB of about 2/1 thus far and that has to be a good sign.  Hopefully he can fix up his luck on homeruns per flyball and batting average on balls in play.  On Saturday, the Phillies will turn to Jamie Moyer.  Moyer certaily is going to show his age at some point, and he really can't be expected to pitch until he's 50, but his poor performance this year also seems luck driven as his core statistics of strikeouts, walks, and groundballs seem in line with recent tendencies.  The Phillies will wrap up with Joe Blanton on Sunday.  Blanton seems to be missing a lot of bats, striking out an above normal 8.8 per nine, but when he doesn't miss those bats, the bats seem to hit the ball awful hard.  Blanton hopes the Mets will make weaker contact.

FRIDAY'S STARTER: Chan Ho Park (R): 7.16 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 2.2 HR/9, 6.42 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Mets:

Beltran: 4/14, 1 HR, 5 BB (1 IBB), 3 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 4/15, 5 BB, 1 K
Reed: 3/12, 2 2B, 3 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 2/12, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 5/10, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Hernandez: 2/8, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Delgado: 3/5, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB (2 IBB), 1 K
Reyes: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Castro: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

SATURDAY'S STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 5.09 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.74 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Mets:

Delgado: 31/81, 7 2B, 8 HR, 8 BB (2 IBB), 9 K, 3 HBP
Beltran: 11/54, 3 2B, 9 BB (1 IBB), 9 K
Reyes: 11/38, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 14/35, 4 2B, 2 HR, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Sheffield: 13/27, 1 2B, 4 HR, 7 BB, 2 K
Church: 4/16, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Castillo: 4/14, 2 2B, 3 BB,0 K
Castro: 0/10, 1 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Cora: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP

SUNDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 8.41 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 2.7 HR/9, 6.08 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs. Mets:

Reed: 2/17, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/14, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/9, 2 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Delgado: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Castro: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 7.27 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 5.89 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant.  ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar.  most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs. Mets:

Church: 6/20, 1 2B, 2 BB, 6 K
Reyes: 3/18, 3 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Beltran: 5/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Wright: 5/17, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Delgado: 7/15, 1 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Brett Myers (R): 4.83 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 6.24 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does.  My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments.  If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up.  However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take.  For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming.  A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

Myers vs. Mets:

Reyes: 12/43, 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Castillo: 6/37, 4 BB, 11 K
Beltran: 10/32, 4 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 7 K
Wright: 5/27, 1 2B, 3 HR, 7 BB, 8 K
Delgado: 7/20, 4 2B, 5 BB, 5 K, 2 HBP
Church: 3/18, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 10 K, 1 Sac
Cora: 2/12, 4 BB, 3 K, 2 HBP
Sheffield: 5/9, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K
Castro: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 2/3, 2 2B, 1 K
Reed: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K


Lidge has been nowhere near as effective as the Phillies closer in the early going this year, but has gotten through a few tough saves anyway.  However, that still leaves him as one of the best closers in baseball if he is healthy.  His health itself has been in question as he has been resting an injured knee for a few days.  He has not gone on the disabled list and may not, and we will probably no more after a Friday bullpen session.  In his stead, Ryan Madson has closed out one game successfully in one try.  Ryan Madson has stepped up to be an elite setup man recently, as his velocity improved mightily over the course of 2008 and has started strong in 2009.  He has had a few bad moments and a few moments of dominance thus far.  The Phillies will have to make do against LHB with J.C. Romero suspended through May.  Scott Eyre, Jack Taschner, and J.A. Happ are the Phillies' lefties in the pen.  Happ does not have especially difficult stuff against lefties, though, and will probably be the long man.  Eyre and Taschner both should not face RHB, especially Taschner who exemplified that inability well against the Nationals on Thursday.  Chad Durbin is somewhat streaky, but I've remained bearish on him for a while.  He still is a reasonable middle reliever to use at times.  Condrey is the other middle reliever, but he should not face lefties at all if possible.  The Phillies' bullpen has been extraordinary since the beginning of 2008, and has kept them in games in 2009 thus far.  It is due for some regression, but I suppose the rotation is due for some improvement as well.

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA< 5.2 BB/9, 12.5 K/9, 3.1 HR/9, 6.98 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Church: 2/6, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Wright: 1/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Delgado: 2/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Reyes: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Castillo: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Castro: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Murphy: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Sheffield: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 3.60 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 13.5 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.38 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs. Mets:

Wright: 6/22, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Delgado: 3/17, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K, 2 HBP
Reyes: 7/18, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Beltran: 4/14, 3 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Castillo: 0/8, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 1/8, 1 BB,0 K, 1 HBP
Castro: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Tatis; 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Reed: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 10.80 ERA, 8.1 BB/9, 10.8 K/9, 5.4 HR/9, 11.28 FIP, 25% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs. Mets:

Delgado: 4/11, 1 2B, 4 BB, 2 K
Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Castillo: 1/6, 2 Bb, 1 K
Cora: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 3/5, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Tatis: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jack Taschner (L): 5.23 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 7.05 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs. Mets:

Reyes: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.97 ERA, 5.7 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 2.1 HR/9, 6.65 FIP, 24% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs. Mets:

Delgado: 3/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Beltran: 3/12, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HBP
Reyes: 1/9, 1 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/6, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Church: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 3/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Castro: 0/5, 0 BB,1 K
Cora: 0/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis; 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

Clay Condrey (R): 1.50 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.18 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs. Mets:

Wright: 1/10, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Delgado: 3/8, 0 BB, 1 K
Reyes: 2/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Tatis: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Castillo: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Castro: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

J.A. Happ (L): 4.05 ERA, 4.05 BB/9, 7.43 K/9, 3.85 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs. Mets:

Reyes: 1/5, 1 Bb, 1 K
Beltran: 2/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Wright: 1/4, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Delgado: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Castro: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs. Mets:

Beltran: 4/25, 3 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
Delgado: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 5 K
Castillo: 0/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Church: 1/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Reyes: 2/4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 0/2, 4 BB (3 IBB), 2 K
Reed: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


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