How Bad Has the Starting Pitching Been?

by dajafi on May 1, 2009 11:31 PM EDT

This bad:

In 21 games, Phils starters have gone 112.3 innings and allowed 83 earned runs, for a collective ERA of 6.65, worst by far in the NL.
They're averaging less than 5 1/3 innings per start.
They've allowed 29 home runs, again worst by far in the NL.
And while I can't honestly say how this compares to the rest of the league, what really blew me away was that in the 21 games, Phlis starters have combined to throw a grand total of 25 1-2-3 innings.

I have to admit that when I started to look at these numbers, my thought was to point a finger at the deeply frustrating Chan Ho Park--because we all pretty much knew he was going to be lousy, and he was again tonight, and it has seemed watching him that his innings take forever. But Park stands second on the staff in 1-2-3s, with six on the year (four of them in his relatively strong outing against the Marlins on April 25). Brett Myers has seven, though in one more start than Park. Jamie Moyer, who has earned three of the total four wins notched by the starters, has five 1-2-3s; Joe Blanton has four, and Cole Hamels three.

To say this isn't sustainable would be putting it mildly. The bullpen's collective 4.28 ERA isn't spectacular, but on the whole they've gotten good work (and did again tonight) from Clay Condrey and J.A. Happ, and Ryan Madson has been effective more often than not. Condrey already has pitched in 14 games, though, as has Chad Durbin; they're not going to hold up under that workload.

Tweet Comment 11 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

done with chan ho park as a starter

I definitely championed the cause of Chan Ho Park as the 5th starter for the Phillies, but I’m done with that. I said that his performance in those 85 batters faced (2 walks, 25 strikeouts) warranted a shot at the 5th spot for a little while. There was a statistically significant difference between his previous performance and his Spring Training performance, and it was worth checking. Now he has faced 101 batters and only struck out 11. That is pathetic, Kendrickesque. It’s not only statistically significantly less than his Spring Training strikeout rate— it is statistically significantly less than his career strikeout rate. It definitely dwarfs the other concerns. It’s over, and it’s time to give Happ a shot. I don’t think Happ is a great pitcher. He seems like the type of guy who walks relief pitchers. But he’s probably worth giving a shot to, given the benefit of what could happen if he could be a reliable minimum salary 5th starter for the next three years. I’m through with Park. I hesitate to cancel my drum-beating on something like this, since last year I declared Durbin a fluke at the top of my lungs and he kept striking people out, and I finally threw my hands up in the air and said “fine, maybe Durbin is doing something different after all” and then he promptly imploded and I should have stuck with my gut. But I’ll say it— try Happ now.

The rest of the starters are probably fine, assuming Hamels is healthy. The quickest stabilizing statistics are K%, UBB%, and GB% for pitchers. Nate Silver created a statistic called QuickERA or QERA as a function of those statistics, scaled according to ERA. Looking at these 5 guys:

Hamels: 3.61 in 2008, 4.11 in 2009
Myers: 3.92 in 2008, 4.52 in 2009
Moyer: 4.71 in 2008, 4.89 in 2009
Blanton: 5.03 in 2008, 4.21 in 2009
Park: 3.90 in 2008, 5.67 in 2009

The discrepancy for Hamels and Moyer are just freakishly low GB rates that have yet to stabilize, and Myers is just walking a few extra guys too. Blanton is striking guys out pretty damn well, and I’m not concerned about him returning to a mid-rotation guy. Park is really the guy who needs to be dropped. Happ should start for now, and we should be looking for another decent midseason upgrade like we’ve been able to do Lidle, Moyer, Lohse, and Blanton.

by Matt Swartz on May 2, 2009 12:27 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

yeah!

Huge Tiny Mistake

by pacino on May 2, 2009 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Well said, dajafi and Matt.

The rotation problems obviously haven’t been all Park’s fault, but while the remainder of the staff is likely to rebound to some degree, I have no faith in Park’s ability to do so. Matt, I was with you: Park earned his shot with a phenomenal spring, but it’s now time to pull the plug. Happ’s minor league track record, and his success in a brief audition last year, indicate that he can be an effective #5, so it’s time to go that route.

As to your other point, Matt… it’ll be interesting to see how the trade deadline market shapes up. The following players are likely to be available if their teams fall out of contention: Erik Bedard, Randy Johnson, Kevin Millwood, Jarrod Washburn, and Vicente Padilla. Actually, wow, that’s the extent of the interesting names. Guys like Justin Duscherer, Brad Penny, and Jon Garland could be available under some scenarios, but most of the best impending free agents are on contending teams (e.g. Harden, Lackey, Smoltz, even our own Brett Myers).

by PhillyFriar on May 2, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Hamels was well on his way to a great start againts the nats until he sprained his ankle…just shows how bad the phils luck has been so far.
Don’t worry hamels will come around, but the rest…who knows

by phllyfan22 on May 2, 2009 11:06 AM EDT reply actions

This was my thought too. But Hamels against Washington didn’t have any 1-2-3 innings, to my surprise. (I didn’t turn that game on until a few minutes after he got hurt.) It wasn’t exactly like he danced through the raindrops—I think he allowed one base runner per inning—but still.

by dajafi on May 2, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions

I fully agree, I never liked the fact that we let Lohse walk, he was a steal from Boston and pitched fine for us. he could have been a 3 or 4 guy. Now we are stuck with this, option him down to AAA and let one of young guns get a shot. I like the idea of Happ, but you think Corrasco is ready?

by Dlance04 on May 2, 2009 11:12 AM EDT reply actions

some BABIP stats

Combined BABIP of the starters is .351 (Hamels .407, Blanton .422)

If you need more proof that Park should not have the 5 spot- Despite hitters having an OPS of over 1.000 and a WHIP of 1.857, his BABIP is the 2nd lowest of the starters at .324 .

lowest→ highest: myers, park, moyer, hamels, blanton

by phils11 on May 2, 2009 12:09 PM EDT reply actions

I was wrong on Park

I thought he deserved the 5th spot, but he stinks. I was there last night and he just stinks. He even walked a pitcher! I said to a lady near us, who is better, Park or Eaton??

by DeanH on May 2, 2009 8:19 PM EDT reply actions

in all fairness

Happ walked a pitcher yesterday too.

by Matt Swartz on May 2, 2009 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I bet she slapped you haha…but agreed man, he is horrendus, and i dont know what they he was doing in spring training but its sure as hell aint the same. and i just read something today that he is going to get another start. my heart stopped

by Dlance04 on May 2, 2009 8:22 PM EDT reply actions

ST

There are a lot of reasons to take spring training stats with a huge grain of salt. For one thing, pitchers aren’t facing the same quality of lineup they can expect when the season starts; for another, a good number of batters are still looking to get their timing down or work on a specific skill (hitting to the opposite field, say).

I also can’t shake the feeling that Park was so focused on winning the job—pitching his best in spring training—that in a weird way the start of the season was a let-down. Maybe that’s crazy.

by dajafi on May 2, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions