What Would You Do For a Jake Peavy?

by David S. Cohen on May 22, 2009 10:32 AM EDT

If every blogger for every MLB team other than the White Sox isn't playing this game this morning, they should hang up their keyboard and retire.

In case you missed it, yesterday Jake Peavy vetoed a trade that would have sent him from the Padres to the White Sox. Apparently, he has no interest in playing in the south side of Chicago. Rumor has it that he would prefer to be traded to an NL team. Know any that could use some starting pitching?

I do. The Philadelphia Phillies.

So here's the game. What would you give up for Jake Peavy? Keep in mind that he's owed $63M over the next four years (including this year and through 2012). He also has a $22M club option in 2013 (or a $4M buyout).

On performance, there are few better in baseball over the past several years. In four of the last five years, Peavy's ERA has been under 3.00. In three of the last four years, he's struck out 215 or more batters. Other than his rookie year, he's started 27 games or more each year. The plaudits can go on and on. Check out his full stats here.

Of course, there's a bit of a rub. He currently pitches in an extreme pitchers' park, and, as we all know, Citizens Bank Park is far from that. Peavy is a flyball pitcher, and there's no way his stats would be as good as a Phillie. But, there's also no way he'd have a 7.62 ERA, or 7.11, or 6.88.

And one last piece to the puzzle before the game starts. The reported deal the Padres agreed to involved all pitching prospects coming over from the White Sox.

So which Phillies would you trade for Peavy?

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Comments

Honestly, we’d probably have to empty out the farm system for him. If they wanted pitching prospects, we’d probably have to give them Carrassco and then maybe both Drabek and Savery, and then another position player prospect on top of that. Wouldn’t be worth it to me.

by wildcatlh on May 22, 2009 10:54 AM EDT reply actions

I'd do that

TINSTAAPP – I’d give up Carrasco and Drabek or Savery for Peavy. Peavy is the real deal, even outside San Diego’s pitchers park, and I’d take that any day over prospects who may or may not survive to make it to the big leagues. This is part of the reason you have prospects.

by David S. Cohen on May 22, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions

hasn’t he said he’d veto a trade to philly too

by phils11 on May 22, 2009 11:02 AM EDT reply actions

Not part of the game!

by David S. Cohen on May 22, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions

I believe I’ve read that before, too. He hates CBP and has had Smoltzian things to say about it.

by doubleh on May 22, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions

But seriously

Do you really think he’d veto a trade to the reigning World Series champion? Doubtful.

by David S. Cohen on May 22, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes, I do

Most pitchers are diva/headcases and don’t like to have their routines changed…he’d probably have to change his pitching style a bit to adapt to CBP. He’d be worried about his stats and the cold and the pressure of playing in a city that gives a sh*t about baseball.

by doubleh on May 22, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions

I'll try to find the article.. maybe it was in the latest SI

I believe he said he was looking for a NL team in “middle-america”

by phils11 on May 22, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Here it is:

http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1155645/index.htm

“With the rebuilding Padres starting to slide, however, Peavy might expand his reportedly short list of teams he’d consider. (He was willing to entertain moves to the Cubs and the Braves, in addition to the Dodgers, Astros and Cardinals.)”

“The Cubs remain the favorites to land Peavy, but the pitcher, according to Axelrod, has expressed an affection for “middle America” in general"

by phils11 on May 22, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions

First thing I think of when I hear

Middle America is Los Angeles and Atlanta.

by Cormican on May 22, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Apparently

Peavy has never seen Central PA. Dead ringer for Kentucky. Seriously.

by doubleh on May 22, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

PA is a hotbed for hate group activity…if that’s what he is looking for. It’s like a grabbag. KKK, Arian Nation, American Nazi Party, whatever. Take your pick Jake.

by FuquaManuel on May 22, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Tell me about it. I hail from its center. Saw KKK marches in front of my church as a child. My Dad loved trying to explain that stuff to me.

by doubleh on May 22, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions

aren't

all of those things essentially the same? lol

by PHIGHTINPHILS on May 22, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions

They share members and they are allies, but they have slightly different roots and political philosophies. But for all intents and purposes they are the same.

by FuquaManuel on May 22, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Would you stand on one leg? Would you bark like a dog?

Sorry, saw the headline and was reminded of the Klondike Bar commercials.

Peavy has said in the past he doesn’t want to come to the East Coast. He doesn’t want to leave the NL and doesn’t want to come to the East Coast. That leaves the ol’ Friars with some pretty limited options. He needs to relax his stance a bit.

by doubleh on May 22, 2009 11:02 AM EDT reply actions

Yup

The Klondike commercial was the reference.

by David S. Cohen on May 22, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Ehh

Peavy strikes me as a guy who would rather stay in relative anonymity than deal with the kind of media and fan pressure he’d see in Philly. He’d rather stay in that big park on a terrible team than take the challenge of a smaller park on a good one. Plus in 2 playoff starts he’s got an ERA over 12, throw in the play-in game against the Rockies in 07 when he gave up 6 ER in 6.1 IPs and his record in big games stinks.

He’s obviously a great regular season pitcher, at least in SD. His career ERA in Petco is 2.81. On the road, 100 starts, its a much less impressive 3.82. I wouldn’t be happy with the Phillies if they traded for him because of what we’d have to give up and the red flags I just mentioned.

by kazz on May 22, 2009 11:31 AM EDT reply actions

SMALL SAMPLE SIZE!

For the “pressure” games, not for the 100 road starts, obviously.

by David S. Cohen on May 22, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Carrasco, Jason Donald, Savery. In a heartbeat.

Phillies top 5 of Hamels, Myers, Peavy, Blanton, Moyer. That would be nice, even if Peavy sucks in the post season, if he’s your #3, I think you can live with that if he helps get you to the dance.

by Cormican on May 22, 2009 11:52 AM EDT reply actions

I guess I’d do that. Carrasco’s upside is that he’s a #2, but more likely he’s a mid-rotation guy who will have some good years and some bad years. Donald might be a league-average starter, or he might be a very good bench player. Savery is Brooks Kieschnick.

I wouldn’t include Brown or Drabek in any deal for Peavy, and would be very hesitant to deal Taylor for him.

by dajafi on May 22, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree that Brown and Drabek are my only two untouchables in such a trade, as both have superstar ceilings.

But I’d part with three of any of the others, possibly four depending on whom.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on May 22, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree on Donald

Supposedly the Padres pushed for a middle infield prospect in the Sox trade and the Sox wouldn’t part with Beckam (can’t blame them on that one). By offering a top MI prospect the Phils might be able to avoid giving up a Brown or Drabek. Donald’s got a good bat, but is a (-) defender, provided the Padres don’t get all hung up on catching the ball, it could work.

by Cormican on May 22, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, just ask Yankees fans how much they appreciate A-Rod in the postseason, even though he gets them to the dance just about every year.

Rationality is not East Coast fans strong point. If he sucked in the postseason, people would say the trade was worthless.

by doubleh on May 22, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions

2004

If they didn’t say they liked him in 2004, they’d be lying.

You can’t suck in the post-season (in the small sample size post-season, remember), unless you get there.

by David S. Cohen on May 22, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree, I was just making an analogy to how quickly the fans would turn on the trade if he didn’t pitch well in the postseason and was making big dollars.

by doubleh on May 22, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions

exactly

I wrote in some thread a couple months ago that A-Rod very easily could turn his postseason rep around just as Bonds did in ’02. Same with (I think) Randy Johnson when he helped pitch the D-backs to the title in 2001. CC Sabathia has been lousy in his few playoff starts. Hamels was uninspiring in his first one in ’07, then of course last year he nutted up to the point where needed a U-Haul for them.

Other than maybe Curt Schilling, who was great in the playoffs for the entirety of his long career, it’s just silly to generalize about any player’s October performance.

by dajafi on May 22, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed. I think Carrasco & Donald would likely have to be the starting point. Then add in some combination from the mid-range, close to the majors group of Savery, Bastardo, Marson & Kendrick and you have a deal I think both sides would be happy with. I also echo dajafi’s sentiment that I would not move Drabek or Brown and would only move Taylor if it meant being able to keep Carrasco.

It is nice, a few months ago it didn’t seem like the Phils had the pieces to get a deal like this done. Now, they do, I can’t remember the farm ever being in this good of shape.

by sprucemoose on May 22, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I like these ideas

And they’d have to be palatable to the Padres. They are in sore need of pitching talent, and we have some good arms to trade.

It’s times like these that you really get upset about the wasted money the team is paying to Jenkins and Eaton. Their contracts combined would be Peavy’s salary this year and some of next year.

by David S. Cohen on May 22, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions

I’d do that too if i’m the Phillies, problem is I doubt the Padres would do it. They’d want more. Carrasco is still a pretty good prospect but there are a good number of scouts who still don’t see Jason Donald as more than a utility player or slightly below average shortstop, and Savery hasn’t exactly set the world on fire since he’s been drafted. I don’t think there’s any way the Padres would send him here unless AT LEAST one of Drabek, Brown or Taylor were included, and that, as the Phillies, I wouldn’t do.

by kazz on May 22, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe it is just me, but I would not give up a whole lot for Peavy. I would give two players from a group that includes Carrasco, Marson, and Donald. I realize this deal would not be enough for the Padres, but I would be scared to give away any more. Peavy is not signed to a favorable deal and is merely a good pitcher away from Petco. Giving away good prospects + acquiring a veteran pitcher with deceptive statistics + paying money that is deserving of an ace + Philadelphia’s fans/ballpark = disaster. Also, this team is aging fast, I would really rather hold onto to any and all prospects.

by Neduol Caz on May 22, 2009 1:13 PM EDT reply actions

this

More or less where I stand. Besides everything else, he strikes me as a guy who’s just one max-effort pitch from his right arm spontaneously combusting.

by phatj on May 22, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

That's what Mitchypoo said

More or less…said his (Peavy’s) mechanics should be a red flag. Don’t know how good Mitch’s analysis, but he was a pitcher and knows a thing or two about sucking, so I’ll take his word for it over mine.

by doubleh on May 22, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes…this guy Chris O’Leary did a frame by frame analysis of his delivery and is convinced that he is well on his way to serious arm and knee issues. I would pass for this reason more than anything else.

by FuquaManuel on May 22, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

O’Leary, I think overstates Peavy’s Inverted V. Peavy leans forward slightly in his delivery, and this makes the V look worse than it is. He nails the timing issues, which are huge. He also nails the Glove Side arm issue, but he fails to mention that Peavy appears to consciously “brake” his arm movement on his throwing motion. That is also a big no-no in pitching mechanics.

That said, some guys pitch long careers with bad mechanics and have very few arm problems, some guys never get out of A ball without injuries biting them. After paying more attention to Peavy’s mechanics, the cost of this deal would outweigh the benefits. Pass.

by Cormican on May 22, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Away from petco peavy is still better than every pitcher currently starting for the phillies not named Hamels.

Yes petco has a positive affect, but his away numbers are much better than anyone we have who isn’t a World Series MVP

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on May 22, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions

pretty close to where I am

and I’d maybe add that the guy has a good bit of mileage on him for someone who’s just 27. Between that and the mechanics (about which I’m not enough of an expert to offer a strong opinion), caution is in order.

by dajafi on May 22, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Peavy will go to any team that will pick up that 22 million dollars in the option on the last year of his contract, you betcha…

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on May 22, 2009 1:49 PM EDT reply actions

Well, he wouldn't go to the White Sox

And they were willing. Just sayin’.

by doubleh on May 22, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

ESPN Links?

There are two acceptable places to link to for a player’s stats:

Fangraphs – preferred, since it has all of the ~~advanced~~ accurate stats

Baseball Reference – awesome splits and better for older players, but missing great stuff like wOBA, FIP, batted ball splits, pitch types, etc.

by christonabike on May 22, 2009 2:31 PM EDT reply actions

Acceptable?

I must have missed when you were appointed blog overlord.

by David S. Cohen on May 22, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions

It was tongue-in-cheek; I did expect different from one of the more statistically conscious posters here though.

by christonabike on May 24, 2009 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions

No way

I wouldnt trade to get Peavy.I know we need starting pitching but some other teams are gonna have fire sales closer to the deadline and i think we can find a good starting pitcher then.It may not be an ace but we got our ace in Hamels.

by Irj on May 22, 2009 3:45 PM EDT reply actions

NO!

Peavy would be going from a extreme pitchers park to an extreme hitter park. The Phillies had to give up a huge package of players just for Joe Blanton. Imagine what they would have to give for Peavy.

by JackofAllTrades on May 22, 2009 5:53 PM EDT reply actions

Uh…it’s not an extreme hitters park according to most statistical metrics from last season.

by FuquaManuel on May 22, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Not totally extreme

but projections show that Peavy’s numbers will blow up in Citizens Park

by JackofAllTrades on May 22, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions

What projections are those?

Peavy has one pitching appearance at CBP – he was good, he K’d 9 and walked 3.

I’m curios to find these projections, are these the same projections that call CBP a extreme hitters park STILL regardless of evidence to the contrary?

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on May 22, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions