How Good Has the Offense Been?

by dajafi on May 6, 2009 1:43 PM EDT

The Phillies' team OPS of .820 leads the National League, as does their 35 home runs and .466 slugging percentage.
The team's .272 batting average is fourth in the league, and their .354 on-base percentage is fifth.
The Phils are third in the NL with 145 runs scored, despite having played four less games than the league-leading Dodgers (151) and three less than the second-ranking Cardinals (148).
The lineup includes two hitters (Raul Ibanez and Chase Utley) in the top five among batting average, home runs, slugging percentage and OPS.
Six Phillies--Utley, Ibanez, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, Pedro Feliz and Jayson Werth--are on pace to drive in at least 115 runs (h/t Beerleaguer), and four (Utley, Ibanez, Feliz and Victorino) are batting over .300.

As a team, the Phils are on pace to score 979 runs--which is good, since they're also on pace to allow 891. While Feliz and Victorino aren't very likely to sustain their early production, improvement from Jimmy Rollins--who's still hitting .210 for the season, but has gone 10 for 32 (.313) over the last seven days--and a teamwide pickup in steals (just 11 so far, tied for 13th in the league) should balance that out somewhat. And while Howard has gotten off to a solid start thus far (.295/.385/.526, with five homers and 20 RBI), he hasn't yet gone on one of his home run tears that can carry the offense for a week or two. (Of course, he also hasn't fallen into one of those lost weeks in which he gets two hits and strikes out 18 times, either.)

Whether one sees the glass as half-empty or half-full for the first-place Phillies depends on what happens first and most: the pitching, especially the rotation, rediscovers some semblance of its 2008 form, or the hitters come back to earth after a virtually teamwide scorching start.

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How good has offense been?

Well the offense has been great and the phillies are in first place. That is with all the distractions of HK and all the hoopla with being the champs. The pitching has been horrible. What do I see? I see a bunch of pros in their prime with a great resolve. These guys never get discouraged and they are winnings enough with no pitching. Their pitching will improve and I say they will win their devision by 8 games. I predict they will put Happ in the rotation. Hamels will come alive and Myers will get tough. Moyer will win his 14 games. When these starters improve the bull pen will also. I like a repeat and its not that I’m a homer that I say that. Wait till Rollins starts hitting.

by PhillyMan on May 6, 2009 2:20 PM EDT reply actions

important point

“When these starters improve the bull pen will also.”

I’d make that an “if,” but it definitely holds. Probably the biggest reason the 2008 bullpen was so effective was that the 2008 starters threw a hell of a lot of innings. They weren’t all great, and sometimes Manuel left them in too long, but the cumulative effect was that Romero, Madson and Lidge were all at the top of their game through September and October. The only one he burned out was Durbin, and that proved survivable.

Now, we can guess that J.C. will be fresh when he comes back, and Madson has always been able to go more than one inning. Lidge clearly isn’t right yet, but he might turn out to be okay. What I worry about is that Condrey and Durbin in particular, who have been mostly good thus far, will be shot by June unless the starters can consistently start going six or seven innings.

by dajafi on May 6, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Bases Loaded

One thing that is worth mentioning (that I included in a fanshot) per Zolecki, the team has been unreal with the bases loaded (last nights follies excepted). This certainly can’t keep up, so we might expect to see a slight decline in the run production as we bat in fewer bases loaded, fewer than 2-out situations and as players start to bat closer to their career norms with the bags juiced.

by FuquaManuel on May 6, 2009 2:29 PM EDT reply actions

Also a good point. But as long as they keep getting guys on base consistently, a little dropoff with the sacks juiced shouldn’t be too painful.

by dajafi on May 6, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s pretty jarring to see Pedro Feliz with a .383 OBP for an entire month. I’ll bet he’s never done that before.

I’m sure he’ll come down to earth, but he isn’t the only guy to improve in that department after joining this team. Somebody should give Milt Thompson a pat on the back.

by taco pal on May 6, 2009 3:38 PM EDT reply actions