Phillies vs. Braves: May 8-10

The Phillies (14-12) face off against the Braves (13-15) this weekend at Citizens Bank Park.  The Phillies are just half a game ahead of the Mets and Marlins after a disappointed two game sweep at the hands of the Mets in New York this week.  The Phillies send Cole Hamels to the hill in game one tonight, and that will give Phillies fans a little more insight into their season.  Hamels has showed flashes of brilliance at certain times in various starts this year, but has had a couple unlucky minor injuries pull him from games thus far.  The Phillies will face lefty Jo-Jo Reyes tonight, who has handled lefties pretty well thus far in his career.  On Saturday, the Phillies send Joe Blanton out to face Javier Vazquez, and on Sunday, they send Myers out again after a disappointing last start in St. Louis.  He'll face Kenshin Kawakami, the Japanese player the Braves picked up for a hefty price this year who has been disappointing to Braves fans in the early going.

MATCHUPS:


Friday, 7:05: Cole Hamels vs. Jo-Jo Reyes
Saturday, 3:40: Joe Blanton vs. Javier Vazquez
Sunday, 12:35: Brett Myers vs. Kenshin Kawakami

I've redone the Braves player by player splits and peripherals to follow more along the lines of what I have been doing for more recent series.  I've also updated the 2009 statistics for each player on both teams, and included pitcher vs. hitter splits under every pitcher.

BRAVES


LINE UP


Brian McCann returns from the disabled list to join the Braves tonight.  The Braves lineup is pretty solid, but they don't have a very strong outfield.  Chipper Jones remains one of the best hitters in baseball, he hits third. The Braves lineup is very top heavy, so hopefully the Phillies' pitchers can get passed the tough guys early in the lineup.

1) 2B Kelly Johnson (L): .232/.323/.402

projection average (proj): .280/.360/.450
projected BB/PA (bb): 11%
projected K/AB (k): 21%
career gb% (gb): 39%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 8%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 6%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected high (.330ish), has done well on flyballs despite high infield fly rate.  probably explains some of poor season thus far.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): pretty good eye and pretty patient, average contact skill
righty/lefty (r/l):  .790/.794 ops; 1.6 vs 2.2 k/bb (.363 BABIP vs lefties unsustainable)
home/away (h/a): .802/.781 ops; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter
anything else (other): none


2) SS Yunel Escobar (R): .300/.358/.420

proj: .290/.360/.410
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 56%
iff: 4%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected high (around .320) which makes sense given low infield fly rate and speed
s/c/z: very good eye, reasonably patient, good contact
r/l:  .811/.757 ops; 1.3/1.2 k/bb
h/a: .826/.760 ops; 1.3/1.2 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around
other: none


3) 3B Chipper Jones (S): .295/.427/.487

proj: .310/.420/.560
bb: 14%
k: 15.5%
gb: 42%
iff: 6% (about 4% from 2006-2008 though; however, 14% in 2009)
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .340 which might even be low, given my BABIP projection system.  he rarely pops out (though he has this year) and spreads ball around well.  he hits his flyballs very far leading to higher flyball BABIP.  he also does very well on line drives which is not surprising given his power and contact mix.
s/c/z: excellent eye, pretty patient, okay contact
r/l: .972/.909 ops; 0.9 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .987/.924 ops; 0.9 vs 1.0 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter both ways but plenty of spreading the ball around for a power hitter
other: none


4) C Brian McCann (L): .195/.333/.415

proj: .295/.365/.505
bb: 9%
k: 13%
gb: 38%
iff: 11%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected a little above average which is pretty reasonable given his power.  he should do well on line drives, hitting the ball deep into gaps.  he pops out a decent amount and doesn't spread the ball around amazingly, so he shouldn't be all that hot on groundballs or flyballs, but he should be above average on babip.
s/c/z: okay contact skill.  his eye is obvious a major question mark since he's just coming off the disabled list to solve the problem with his eyes.  historically, he has had an above average eye but not particularly patient.  this year he started off the year patient with a poor eye.  
r/l: .886 vs .784 ops; 1.2 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .852 vs .860 ops; 1.3 vs 1.5 k/bb; poor power on road but better average at home
p/o: pretty solid pull hitter; typical for a power hitter
other: he should be coming off the disabled list today, but it remains to be seen what effect his new glasses and eye surgery will have.  hopefully something that takes three days to adjust to, and then i wish him well.  mccann is the kind of player that i would love if he wasn't on a division rival's team-- solid eye and good power, smart player.


5) LF Garret Anderson (L): .167/.231/.250

proj: .280/.320/.430
bb: 6%
k: 15%
gb: 41%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: free swinger with previously decent but now eroding eye; average contact skill
r/l: .813/.751 ops; 2.2 vs 5.1 k/bb
h/a: .792/.797 ops; 2.8 k/bb both ways
p/o: extreme pull hitter
other: none


6) Jeff Francoeur (R): .286/.305/.429

proj: .270/.320/.430
bb: 6%
k: 19%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected slightly above average but given infield fly rate, that might be optimistic; he does spread ball around well and gets a decent number of infield hits
s/c/z: major free swinger without a good eye-- has improved high this year but still swings at way too many pitches out of the strike zone, slightly above average contact skill
r/l: .714/.824 ops; 4.3 vs 2.6 k/bb
h/a: .793/.700 ops; 3.2 vs 4.4 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter but not that much for a power hitter
other: struggles a lot against power pitchers


7) 1B Casey Kotchman (L): .313/.377/.458

proj: .280/.350/.440
bb: 9%
k: 10%
gb: 52%
iff: 14%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected below average (.280s); makes sense since he pops up a lot, is slow, and doesn't spread ball around field well
s/c/z: okay eye, not very patient, good contact skill
r/l: .751/.745 ops; 1.0 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .763/.737 ops; 1.1 vs 1.0 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: very good against finesse pitchers


8) CF Jordan Schafer (L): .239/.375/.370

proj: .240/.310/.400
bb: 8%
k: 25% (but 43% thus far in 2009)
gb: 44%
iff: 12% (2 of 16 in 2009)
ifh: 10% (2 in 20 GB in 2009)
babip: has been very high but probably not much reason for that; pops up a lot and doesn't spread ball around well
s/c/z: swings a lot with terrible contact skill thus far
r/l: .729 vs .743 thus far in 2009 but that's only with his high BABIP; approximately 1.9 k/bb without much split
h/a: not enough info
p/o: thus far extreme pull hitter
other: none


BENCH

No one jumps out as an obvious threat on the Braves bench.  They are all righthanded except for Greg Norton, the switch hitter who is better fro mthe left side.  

C David Ross (R): .298/.411/.574

proj: .220/.320/.400
bb: 12%
k: 28%
gb: 34%
iff: 15%
ifh: 6%
babip: below average for sure-- makes poor/weak contact and pops up a lot.  has decent power, but still not great.
s/c/z: very good eye; not especially patient; poor contact skill
r/l: .740 vs .781 ops; 2.5 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .787 vs .724 ops; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb
p/o: extreme pull hitter
other: none


UI Martin Prado (R): .290/.371/.516

proj: .300/.355/.410
bb: 8%
k: 14%
gb: 43%
iff: 12%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected very high, but that's based on historical success on groundballs and flyballs that doesn't seem realistic given his lack of significant power
s/c/z: patient, pretty good eye, very good contact
r/l: .838 vs .770; 1.6 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .768 vs .833; 1.6 vs 1.2 k/bb
p/o: pretty clear opposite field hitter
other: none


1B/OF Greg Norton (S): .105/.292/.158

proj: .260/.355/.415
bb: 12.5%
k: 23%
gb: 40%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected average which seems about right
s/c/z: good eye, reasonably patient, slightly below average contact skill
r/l: .789 vs .648 ops; 1.8 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .767 vs .759 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter, slightly moreso as lefty
other: none


UI Omar Infante (R): .349/.386/.397

proj: .280/.330/.400
bb: 6%
k: 16%
gb: 35%
iff: 12%
ifh: 9%
babip: projected pretty high but that might be overstating due to speed since he does pop up a lot and doesn't have great power (so he doesn't hit the ball that hard or far).  historically average to high babip probably lucky.
s/c/z: okay eye, pretty patient, okay contact
r/l: .694 vs .707 ops; 2.8 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .650 vs .744 ops; 2.4 vs 3.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none


OF Matt Diaz (R): .230/.324/.410

proj: .295/.335/.440
bb: 4%
k: 19%
gb: 49%
iff: 4%
ifh: 8%
babip: projected very high which is actually probably reasonable given speed, low pop up rate, ability to spread the ball around, and his decent power.  historically it's probably been higher than it should so perhaps the projected around .340-.350 are too high but .330 seems reasonable.
s/c/z: horrible eye and major free swinger without quite average contact skill.  still thrown a lot of strikes but that has gone this year as his stats have too.
r/l: .714 vs .857 ops; 5.3 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .787 vs .788 ops; 4.0 vs 4.5 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter but pretty much spreads ball around well
other: none




ROTATION

The Phillies will face the bottom three of the Braves rotation this weekend.  They face lefty Jo-Jo Reyes on Friday who is tough against lefties, but otherwise pretty pedestrian.  The switch hitters at the top of the lineup and Werth are probably going to play a big role in how well Reyes does tonight.  On Saturday, the Phillies will face Javier Vazquez who they hit reasonably well before managing an impossible comeback win in the bullpen against in April.  On Sunday, the Phillies face Kenshin Kawakami, the Japanese import who has disappointed Braves fans early in 2009.


FRIDAY OPPONENT: Jo-Jo Reyes (L): 5.00 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.69 FIP, 61% GB rate (18 IP only)

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 66% fb, 11% sl, 15% ch, 8% cb
r/l: .920 vs .642 ops; 1.1 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .851 vs .877 ops; 1.2 vs 1.5 k/bb

Reyes vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/13, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 3/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 3 GDP
Utley: 4/12, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 3/10, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP
Werth: 4/9, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Ruiz: 2/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 3/7, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Bruntlett: 0/3, 1 Bb, 2 K
Coste: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1 BB


SATURDAY OPPONENT: Javier Vazquez (R): 4.19 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 11.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.80 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.60 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9,
gb: 39%
pitches: 53% fb, 23% sl, 13% cb, 11% ch, 0.3% ct
r/l: .730 vs .743 ops; 4.1 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: .720 vs .752 ops; 3.7 vs 3.1 k/bb

Vazquez vs Phillies:

Rollins: 8/47, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Stairs: 2/24, 1 HR, 3 BB, 8 K
Feliz: 4/17, 3 BB, 3 K
Ibanez: 6/16, 3 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Werth: 1/11, 2 BB, 3 K
Utley: 4/12, 2 2B, 2 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Cairo: 2/9, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac
Howard: 2/5, 1 2B< 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 2/6, 1 3B< 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K


SUNDAY OPPONENT: Kenshin Kawakami (R): 6.41 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 5.55 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.22 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: --
pitches: (in 2009)- 62% fb, 14% cb, 12% ct, 10% sf, 2% ch, 0.6%  sl
r/l: .998 vs .891 ops; 1.5 vs 2.2 k/bb (in 2009)
h/a: .790 vs 1.203 ops; 2.2 vs 0.75 k/bb (in 2009)

Kawakami: has not played Phillies

NOT FACING US: Derek Lowe (R): 3.98 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.60 FIP, 57% GB

proj avg: 3.60 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 64%
pitches: 61% fb, 32% sl, 7% ch
r/l: .638 vs .735 ops; 3.4 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .654 vs .719 ops; 2.7 vs 2.0 k/b

Lowe vs Phillies (**excluding postseason 2009**)

Feliz: 5/26, 2 HR, 1 BB, 9 K
Ibanez: 2/22, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 7/23, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 2/19, 2 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 2/15, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K, 2 SF
Utley: 5/17, 3 2B, 1 BB, 0 K (also homered off him in NLCS 2009)
Cairo: 2/13, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Dobbs: 0/10, 0 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 1/8, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Burntlett: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US: Jair Jurrjens (R): 2.01 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.35 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% ch, 14% sl
r/l: .652 vs .744 ops; 2.5 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .785 vs .616 ops; 1.8 vs 1.7 k/bb

Jurrjens vs Phillies:

Rollins: 3/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 4/14, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Victorino: 4/13, 2 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/12, 1 Bb, 2 K
Feliz: 3/9, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Werth: 2/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/5, 1 2B, 1 Bb, 0 K
Cairo: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Dobbs: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K



BULLPEN

The back end of the Braves bullpen is pretty mean, with Gonzalez able to close out games well and Soriano a solid set up man.  Otherwise, their pen is pretty weak and the Phillies already exploited it once this year.  They only have one lefty other than the closer Gonzalez, and that's Eric O'Flaherty who is not especially dominant against lefties at all.



CL Mike Gonzalez (L): 3.86 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 13.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 2.24 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 3.30 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 57% fb, 42% sl, 1% ch
r/l: .608 vs .634 ops; 2.3 vs 3.4 k/bb
h/a: .598 vs .39 ops; 2.5 vs 2.7 k/bb


Gonzalez vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/7, 2 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Howard: 1/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Utley: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 2/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Cairo: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Rafael Soriano (R): 1.29 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 12.2 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.97 FIP, 23% GB

proj avg: 3.30 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 9.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 31%
pitches: 77% fb, 22% sl, 1% ch
r/l: .532 vs .694 ops; 4.3 vs 2.5 k/bb
h/a: .636 vs .574 ops; 3.1 vs 3.8 k/bb

Soriano vs Phillies:

Dobbs: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez; 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/3, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Peter Moylan (R): 7.15 ERA, 7.15 BB/9, 10.3 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.54 FIP, 68% GB

proj avg: 4.0 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 62%
pitches: 79% fb, 17% sl, 4% ch
r/l: .578 vs .662 ops; 3.4 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .719 vs .521 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

Moylan vs Phillies:

Werth: 2/5, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1 BB
Coste: 1 Sac
Ibanez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K


Jeff Bennett (R): 0.71 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 0.00 HR/9, 2.48 FIP, 56% GB

proj avg: 4.2 ERA, 4.0 BB?9, 6.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 74% fb, 21% sl, 3% cb, 3% ch, 1% ct
r/l: .698 vs .838 ops; 2.3 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .691 vs .824 ops; 2.0 vs 1.5 k/bb

Bennett vs Phillies:

Rollins: 2/6, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
RUiz: 2/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 Bb, 0 K
Werth: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 2 BB (1 IBB)
Stairs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1 SF
Ibanez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Eric O'Flaherty (L): 2.70 ERA, 0.9 BB/9, 3.6 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.29 FIP, 55% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% fb, 42% sl, 7% ch
r/l: .856 vs .602 ops; 1.3 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .743 vs .732 ops; 1.6 vs 1.6 k/bb

O'Flaherty vs Phillies:

Stairs: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Utley: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Buddy Carlyle (R): 5.11 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.92 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 36%
pitches: 73% fb, 19% ct, 5% ch, 2% cb, 0.2% sl
r/l: .696 vs .942 ops; 2.2 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .781 vs .838 ops; 2.25 vs 2.05 k/bb

Carlyle vs Phillies:

Rollins: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 2/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Howard: 2/5, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Ruiz: 2/5, 1 HR, 1 Bb, 0 K
Victorino: 2/6, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/4, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Dobbs: 2/4, 2 BB (1 iBB), 0 K
Werth: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


James Parr (R): 4.50 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.69 FIP, 48% gb

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 32%
pitches: 72% fb, 13% ch, 9% cb, 5% sl
r/l: 1.090 vs .782 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb (62 vs 69 PA only)
h/a: not enough info

Parr vs Phillies:

Howard: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 2/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 2/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K







PHILLIES




LINE UP

The heart of the Phillies lineup is very left handed.  The rest of the lineup is pretty well balanced, but with Utley hitting 3rd, Howard hitting 4th, and Ibanez hitting 6th, managers have an advantage to use lefties against the Phillies in key situations.  Both of the switch hitters atop the lineup hit lefties a little better than righties, and the bottom of the lineup has two righties.  The Phillies' catcher Carlos Ruiz is back in the lineup, but struggling again.  Utley and Ibanez have both been on fire and have carried the team, though Utley has been battling a sore foot after being hit by a pitch last weekend.  Overall, the offense has been spectacular thus far.

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .211/.250/.284


projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb.  otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.


2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .304/.347/.518

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year


3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .318/.458/.612

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters


4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .291/.376/.544

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep.  also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though.  probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes.  however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him.  he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!"  in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably.  his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp.  he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip.  i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road.  very similar hr numbers.  2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .284/.384/.547

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .343/.405/.676

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .311/.366/.433

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes.  swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home.  likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .185/.267/.222

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey.  his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

 




BENCH

Like their lineup, the Phillies' bench is much better from the left side.  Dobbs and Stairs are two solid lefthanded pinch hitters with power.  Stairs is by far more patient and is much more successful against lefties than Dobbs.  From the right side, the Phillies have superutility man Eric Bruntlett.  Bruntlett struggles mightily against RHP, but actually has very solid numbers against LHP.  Bruntlett can be used as a counterswitch when managers bring in lefties to face Dobbs or Stairs.  The Phillies other RHB on the bench is Miguel Cairo.  He is not a very good hitter, but is flexible and can play many positions.  Cairo has only managed a single hit thus far in 13 chances, and his time is bound to be limited.  The backup catching duties fall to Chris Coste who has also struggled.



IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .143/.231/.286

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually  average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb.  he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .136/.208/.136

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters.  given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp.  in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp.  he should never see them.  absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .267/.421/.667

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF/OF Miguel Cairo (R): .077/.077/.077

proj: .255/.315/.335
bb: 7%
k: 15%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: not much power so slightly below average
s/c/z: okay eye, maybe a little above average; makes good contact
r/l: 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb; .647 vs .735 ops
h/a: virtually no split at all, somewhat better walk rate at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

C Chris Coste (R): .182/.280/.273

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat









ROTATION

The Phillies rotation has struggled a lot early, though they seem to be mostly struggling with bad luck rather than bad performances.  Their walk and strikeout rates across the board are indicative that we should expect similar performances to last season, and their groundball rates haven't been out of the norm either.  However, all of them seem to struggling on homeruns per flyball.  This is known to be a luck based statistic, with little variance in skill level, so it is somewhat hard to believe that they would necessarily continue to perform this badly.  However, it does seem coincidental that all of them would struggle with it at once.  Hamels will pitch Friday night's game, hoping to finally put up a good start for the first time this season.  He started with a terrible start, had a good start that turned bad as he surrendered three long balls, had a start where he was doing well until getting hit with a line drive, and another where he was doing well until he turned his ankle.  He's had over a week to rest it, and the Phillies will try to keep him away from ladders and black cats on Friday.  Blanton pitches Saturday.  His ERA is poor but his peripherals are fine, and he should be okay.  Myers struggled mightily in his last start.  Hopefully he rebounds and puts up solid numbers on Sunday.




FRIDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 7.27 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 5.89 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant.  ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar.  most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Braves:

McCann: 8/21, 5 2B, 4 BB (1 IBB), 3 K

Francoeur: 6/31, 0 Bb, 9 K, 1 Sf
Diaz; 5/21, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 K
Johnson: 3/17, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Jones: 5/15, 3 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Infante: 5/16, 1 Bb, 0 BB, 1 K
Prado: 3/16, 1 2B< 0 BB, 0 K
Escobar: 1/11, 1 2B, 4 BB, 1 K
Kotchman: 4/9, 3 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 0/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Norton: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K


SATURDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 6.84 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.65 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Braves:
McCann: 3/3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K

Anderson: 11/35, 2 2B, 3 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Kotchman: 7/23, 4 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Infante: 2/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Norton: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Escobar: 3/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 3/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Francoeur: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Diaz: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Brett Myers (R): 5.35 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.61 FIP, 45% GB


proj avg: 4.15 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 48% fb, 23% cb, 18% sl, 9% ch, 1% ct, 0.2% sf
r/l: .788 vs .747 ops despite 3.1 vs 1.95 k/bb; main issue is much higher HR rate vs rhb, slightly higher babip vs them as well; does not seem to be selection bias
h/a: .738 vs .800 ops; 2.7 vs 2.15 k/bb; slightly higher HR rate at home, but that is probably park factors as he surrenders far more doubles on road
other: HR rate is bizarre-- very few pitchers have the HR/Flyball rate he does.  My personal suspicion is that statistics that don't exhibit much persistence despite what common sense suggests only do not exhibit persistence specifically because players make adjustments.  If you throw fastball after fastball on the outside corner on every 1-2 count, the hitters will respond by hitting singles to the opposite field over and over again and your BABIP will go up.  However, pitchers learn to mix up their pitches and BABIP ends up lacking persistence due to the constant game theoretical reaction that pitchers and hitters take.  For Myers, his bizarre refusal to use his curveball early in the game leaves him especially vulernable to RHB who know it isn't coming.  A little game theoretical mixed strategy would probably allow him to finally live up to his peripherals which suggest a low HR rate and borderline ace stuff.

Myers vs Braves:

McCann: 11/30, 4 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 10 K

Jones: 12/33, 2 2B, 3 HR, 8 BB, 2 K
Francoeur: 7/34, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 7 K
JohnsOn: 3/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 8 K
Anderson: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Escobar: 2/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 1 K
Kotchman: 1/8, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Infante: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Matt Diaz: 3/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Prado: 3/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Norton: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Ross: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Schafer: 2/2, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB)


NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Chan Ho Park (R): 6.67 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 6.19 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Braves:

McCann: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K

Anderson: 15/43, 5 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 9 K
Jones: 10/31, 2 2B, 2 HR, 9 BB, 2 K
Francoeur: 3/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
JohnsOn: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Vazquez: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Kotchman: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Infante: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Escobar: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Schafer: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K



NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 7.26 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 2.9 HR/9, 7.67 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Braves:

McCann: 8/20, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K, 1 HBP

Anderson: 34/107, 9 BB, 1 3B, 5 HR, 2 BB, 15 K, 1 SF
Francoeur: 8/27, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Jones: 7/16, 3 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Diaz; 4/12, 1 2B, 3 Bb, 1 K, 1 SF
Escobar: 4/15, 2 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Prado: 6/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Infante: 3/12, 1 3B, 0 BB, 2 K
Johnson: 4/10, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sf
Kotchman: 6/12, 0 BB, 0 K
Norton: 4/8, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Ros: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Schafer: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K





BULLPEN

Lidge has been nowhere near as effective as the Phillies closer in the early going this year, but has gotten through a few tough saves anyway.  However, that still leaves him as one of the best closers in baseball if he is healthy.  His health itself has been in question as he has recently took a weak off to heal a sore knee.  In his stead, Ryan Madson was very good.  Ryan Madson has stepped up to be an elite setup man recently, as his velocity improved mightily over the course of 2008 and has started strong in 2009.  He has had a few bad moments and a few moments of dominance thus far.  The Phillies will have to make do against LHB with J.C. Romero suspended through May.  Scott Eyre, Jack Taschner, and J.A. Happ are the Phillies' lefties in the pen.  Happ does not have especially difficult stuff against lefties, though, and will probably be the long man.  Eyre and Taschner both should not face RHB, especially Taschner who exemplified that inability well against the Nationals on Thursday.  Chad Durbin is somewhat streaky, but I've remained bearish on him for a while.  He still is a reasonable middle reliever to use at times.  Condrey is the other middle reliever, but he should not face lefties at all if possible.  However, he has been extremely good this year and may deserve a little more exposure than I give him credit for.  The Phillies' bullpen has been extraordinary since the beginning of 2008, and has kept them in games in 2009 thus far.  It is due for some regression, but I suppose the rotation is due for some improvement as well.

CL Brad Lidge (R): 6.75 ERA, 5.9 BB/9, 11.0 K/9, 3.4 HR/9, 7.87 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Braves:

McCann: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K

Jones: 3/8, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Escobar: 1/5, 1 BB, 3 K
Francoeur: 0/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Norton: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Johnson: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Ross: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
DiaZ: 2/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Kotchman: 0/1, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Anderson: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Infante: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Schafer: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Prado: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K


Ryan Madson (R): 2.70 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 10.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.13 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Braves:

McCann: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 KFrancoeur: 3/12, 0 BB, 3 K
Jones: 3/6, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
Johnson: 1/4, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Escobar: 0/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Norton: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Infante: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Kotchman: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Prado: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ross: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Anderson: 1 BB
Diaz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Scott Eyre (L): 6.35 ERA, 7.9 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 3.2 HR/9, 9.54 FIP, 29% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Braves:

McCann: 3/8, 2 2B, 2 BB, 1 K

Anderson: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Francoeur: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 k
Johnson: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Norton: 2/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Diaz: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Ross: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Infante: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
JOnes: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotchman: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Escobar: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Prado: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Jack Taschner (L): 4.38 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 6.11 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Braves:

McCann: 3/8, 1 BB, 0 K

Jones: 0/7, 0 BB, 4 K
Johnson: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Francoeur: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K, 1 HBP
Escobar: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotchman: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Anderson: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Diaz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Infante: 1/1, 1 2B



Chad Durbin (R): 3.86 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 1.65 HR/9, 6.19 FIP, 29% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Braves:

McCann: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Anderson: 3/10, 3 BB (1 IBB), 0 K, 1 SF
Francoeur: 0/10, 0 BB, 4 K
Kotchman: 5/8,3 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Infante: 0/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 2/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Escobar: 1/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Norton: 2/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Jones: 0/1, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Diaz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Prado: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
ROss: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Schafer: 1 BB



Clay Condrey (R): 1.69 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.62 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Braves:

McCann: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K

Francoeur: 5/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Johnson: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Norton: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Infante: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotchman: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Diaz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Escobar: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Jones: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ross: 1 BB
Schafer: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K


J.A. Happ (L): 2.84 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.84 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Braves:

McCann: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K

Johnson: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Francoeur: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Infante: 1/6, 0 BB, 2 K
Prado: 0/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Kotchman: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Jones: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Escobar: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
DIaz: 1 BB
Schafer: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K


SUSPENDED: J.C. Romero (L)


proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Braves:

McCann: 1/10, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K

Anderson: 5/15, 1 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Jones: 3/10, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Infante: 2/9, 0 BB, 6 K
Norton: 2/7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Johnson: 0/3, 2 BB, 1 K
Escobar: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Francoeur: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Diaz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Kotchman: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Prado: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

 

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