About ten days ago, we were all scratching our heads, wondering if the Phillies are for real this year. The consensus conclusion reached at the time seemed to be "it is still too early to tell". Since then, while it is still likely "too early to tell", we have all been able to observe the team a little longer against competition that is not the Nationals.

 

 

As of this writing, the combined records of the Dodgers (40-21), the Padres (28-31), and the Mets (31-26) gives a total record of 99-78. This results in a winning percentage of .559, or 91 wins over a period of 162 games. Since there are 6 teams, other than the Phillies, in MLB with winning percentages of .559 or higher, and only two of those teams are in the NL, I think it can be safely said that this represents "quality" competition.

During this recent window of 9 games against teams with a combined winning percentage of .559, the Phillies are 6-3. All on the road.

If you look at the winning percentage of the opponents at their home parks, the Dodgers (23-9), the Padres (19-11), and the Mets (18-10) have a record of 60-30, for a percentage of .667, resulting in a 162 game record for the fictional Combined Opponents (nice roto name, possibly) of 108-54.

I can already envision someone posting "...and Lidge blew X saves, and they shoulda won more!" but the facts are, he did and the Phillies didn't. That's part of it. Even with the flaws, such as Myers' injury, Lidge's struggles, and Rollins' futility at the plate during large portions of this period, the Phillies still have gone 6-3.

All the usual caveats apply -- small sample size being the largest and most-obvious. Nevertheless, it is heartening, if you are a Phillies fan. They went to tough places to win, and they have so far done admirably, all things considered.

It is still too early to tell, though. It will be too early to tell until about 162 games have been played. The last two seasons tell us (and the Mets) this. What I have seen over the last ten days does give me more confidence, however. This is not just a team built to beat the Nationals. This team can play well for extended periods against tough teams on the road. We know this because they just did it. A week and a half ago, we were wondering if the wheels were going to fall off. They didn't.

An additional factor to consider is that between now and the end of the year (105 games remaining), the Mets, to win the division, have to lose 4 fewer games than the Phillies (3 game lead + 1). The Braves 7, and the Marlins 10. As the season continues to get shorter, those gaps obviously become harder and harder to close. This is perhaps a good time to note that it is not too early to bookmark this site.