Baseball Prospectus Idol, Week Four: Vote for MattS!

by WholeCamels on Jun 15, 2009 2:01 PM EDT

The Good Phight's Matt Swartz ("MattS") has moved on to Round Four of the first Baseball Prospectus Idol competition. This week's assignment: Player profile. Go read and vote on Matt's entry, "Ryan Howard: Swinging Hard, In Case He Hits It", here.

Voting closes at 11 p.m. on Tuesday.

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Matt is obviously

juicing. His career performance does not suggest that he is capable of having a hot streak like this.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Jun 15, 2009 2:17 PM EDT reply actions

Blog commenters making wild, baseless accusations! No accountability! Live in their FATHERS’ basements!!!

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jun 15, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Grandfathers

St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/

by vivaelpujols on Jun 16, 2009 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Great read but as usual much of it goes over my head.

Quick question completely non related – but does your dad still think schmidt is the greatest phillie ever?

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Jun 15, 2009 3:02 PM EDT reply actions

Not sure where this is going, but I don’t see how anyone with a straight face could say that Schmidt is anything but the greatest Phillie ever, and possibly the best MLB player in the post-Mays, pre-Bonds era (i.e., roughly the 1970s and 1980s).

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jun 15, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I kind of like Chase Utley as well on his way to be the best phillie ever, if not one of the best at his position ever

"Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot."

Blocked shots — they look great, but unless you secure the ball afterward, you haven’t helped your team all that much.

by jemagee on Jun 15, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Utley is probably now the best Phillie since Schmidt (he “passed” Abreu in that category probably with the WFC). Schmidt was Utley superior offensively and defensively, and he did it for 16 or so years. Utley has a lot of catching up to do.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jun 15, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Utley ain’t even close. And when I say not close, I mean, not close. Come back in 7 years and then we could start to even discuss this.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Jun 15, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions

He's been worth 35.5 WAR in about 3300 plate appearances

Schmidt was worth 106.5 WAR in about 3 times the amount of plate appearances. So Utely would have to continue his production for another 6000 or so plate appearances to catch Shmidt. He is already 31, if I’m not mistaken, so he would have to have 600 plate appearances for the next 10 years, with absolutely no drop in production to be able to catch Schmidt.

St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/

by vivaelpujols on Jun 16, 2009 1:50 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree it’s a long road of contiued high level play, but don’t age him one extra year, Utley is 30.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Jun 16, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions

still...

St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/

by vivaelpujols on Jun 16, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions

i assume so. he certainly must have way more WAR/WARP/Win Shares than anyone else, so it’s probably true. Personally I’d love for Utley to overtake him, but he’d need to stay very good into his late 30s or maybe even into his 40s to even have a shot, and I don’t think there’s any 29 year old you can assume that about.

by Matt Swartz on Jun 15, 2009 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Plus, if you look at some of Schmidt's OPS+ numbers, well...

take 1980 and 1981 and see if Utley is anywhere even in shouting distance. Not yet.

A legitimate question, and perhaps one that deserves its own post, is how Utley compares to Ryne Sandberg. I was discussing this with someone recently, and we both sort of concluded that, if there is a just god, that Utley may be compensation for Bowa/Sandberg for Ivan DeJesus trade. It would be sort of neat to side-by-side the two.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Jun 15, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Just looked at Utley v. Sandberg -- not even close

Utley, hands down. Take even just the best 5 years of OPS+ (Sandberg had some pretty mediocre years) for each, and Utley is just a better player. Add in that all-important HBP stat, and Utley floors Sandberg.

I thought it would be closer"

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandbry01.shtml?redir

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/utleych01.shtml?redir

And one of the reasons I think Sandberg was traded (he was “blocked”):

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/samueju01.shtml

Some wounds never heal, I guess. At least I learned Utley had been drafted by the Dodgers but ditched them for college. Hah!

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Jun 15, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions