Phillies vs Orioles: June 19-21

After a disappointing sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays, the Philadelphia Phillies (36-28) still maintain a three-game lead over the Mets thanks to this weekend's opponent, the Baltimore Orioles (29-37), who took two out of three from the Mets.  The Phillies have three games this weekend against the O's, who have a lot of promising young stars, but still struggle to compete in a tough division.  The Orioles really do fall short with their pitching, although their young hitters are dangerous.  In addition to reliable veterans Brain Roberts, and Aubrey Huff, the Orioles have Nick Markakis, who is quietly turning into one of the better hitters in the American League, Adam Jones, the steal of the Erik Bedard trade who his mashing this year, and the Orioles very own Messiah to combat ours, Matt Wieters.  Wieters finally hit his first homerun this week against the Mets, though reports are that if he does not get the day off Sunday against Cole Hamels, the planet might explode.  Either that or at least one of the websites linked in the previous sentence will be at least an exaggeration.

 

The Phillies send Antonio Bastardo out Friday night, looking to bounce back after his first poor start of the season.  Bastardo allowed five runs in the first inning before a rain delay ended his night against the Red Sox.  The Orioles reply with Rich Hill, who has been the victim of control problems, and if it were not for some luck on flyballs landing on the correct side of the fence, Hill's ERA would be in worse shape.  Hill does not have a huge split , being mostly a fastball/curveball pitcher, so the Phillies should not have too much trouble with him.

The Orioles will send out RHP Brad Bergeson in Saturday night's game.  Bergeson is a contact pitcher who gets a good number of groundballs.  Taking good swings against him will be the key.  The Phillies send J.A. Happ to the mound against him.  Happ looked a little better than what he is after initially joining the rotation, though his last two starts have left something to be desired.

The Orioles send RHP Jeremy Guthrie to the mound on Sunday afternoon.  Guthrie has had some bad luck this year, but is pretty much an average pitcher overall, in terms of control, command, and groundball tendencies.  The Phillies send ace Cole Hamels to the mound on Sunday.  American League teams have done their best with him this year by fouling off pitches and building up his pitch counts, and getting a shot against the bullpen.   He'll try to go deeper into Sunday's game than he has in recent starts.

 

MATCHUPS

Friday, 7:05-- Antonio Bastardo (L) vs. Rich Hill (L)

Saturday, 7:05-- J.A. Happ (L) vs. Brad Bergeson (R)

Sunday, 1:35-- Cole Hamels (L) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (R)

 

After the jump, I preview the players, their splits, and the matchups.

ORIOLES

LINE UP

1) 2B Brian Roberts (S): .287/.352/.445

projection average (proj): .285/.365/.425
projected BB/PA (bb): 11%
projected K/AB (k): 16%
career gb% (gb): 38%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 7%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .325; i have him .318
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, good patience, good contact, sees a decent amount of strikes
righty/lefty (r/l): .802 vs .705 ops; 1.3 vs 1.4 k/bb
home/away (h/a): .759 vs .786 ops; 1.2 vs 1.3 k/bb
pull/opposite (p/o): slight pull hitter from both sides
anything else (other): better against groundball pitchers


2) RF Nick Markakis (L): .293/.356/.464

proj: .300/.380/.485
bb: 11%
k: 18%
gb: 46%
iff: 6%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .335; i have him at .329.
s/c/z: okay eye, good patience, above average contact
r/l: .888 vs .753 ops; 1.3 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .867 vs .827 ops; 1.6 vs 1.4 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around pretty evenly
other: much better against finesse pitcher


3) CF Adam Jones (R): .312/.368/.540

proj: .275/.325/.445
bb: 6%
k: 23%
gb: 46%
iff: 12%
ifh: 9%
babip: projected around .325, but i have him at .306; my system is probably conservative since there isn't much data on him
s/c/z: impatient, bad eye, below average contact
r/l: .768 vs .729 ops; 6.1 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .760 vs .754 ops; 5.6 vs 3.7 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none


4) 1B Aubrey Huff (L): .272/.335/.451

proj: .280/.345/.470
bb: 8.5%
k: 15%
gb: 45%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .295; i have him around .299.
s/c/z: decent eye, decent contact
r/l: .856 vs .745 ops; 1.5 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .839 vs .808 ops; 1.6 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none


5) 3B Melvin Mora (R): .277/.333/.339

proj: .270/.330/.425
bb: 8%
k: 17%
gb: 39%
iff: 11%
ifh: 7%
babip: i have him at .298 which is about where other systems have him.
s/c/z: some patience and okay eye, pretty good contact
r/l: .786 vs .816 ops; 2.0 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .806 vs .782 ops; 1.6 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none


6) DH Luke Scott (L): .306/.389/.594

proj: .260/.345/.480
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 39%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: most systems have him around .295; i have him at .286
s/c/z: okay eye but impatient, mediocre contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .874 vs .850 ops; 1.7 vs 2.2 k/bb
h/a: .896 vs .841 ops; 1.5 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none


7) C Matt Wieters (S): .259/.298/.407

proj: .295/.365/.485
bb: 11%
k: 19%
gb: 47% in minors
iff: 7% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected around .320
s/c/z: good eye, somewhat patient, below average contact
r/l: seems pretty good both ways in minors, but better babip vs lhp
h/a: not enough info
p/o: ?
other: none


8) LF Nolan Riemold (R): .283/.372/.525

proj: .250/.320/.430
bb: 9%
k: 21%
gb: 51%
iff: 20%
ifh: ?
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: somewhat patient, average contact, pretty good eye
r/l: .870 vs 1.010 in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: ?
other: none


9) SS Robert Andino (R): .252/.292/.313

proj: .240/.295/.360
bb: 6%
k: 23%
gb: 54%
iff: 12%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected all over the place, about .300 overall
s/c/z: not a great eye, not particularly patient, below average contact
r/l: .533 vs .594 ops; 3.4 vs 8.5 k/bb
h/a: .614 vs .488 ops; 4.5 vs 3.7 k/bb
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none





BENCH

C Greg Zaun (S): .209/.315/.295

proj: .250/.340/.390
bb: 12%
k: 16%
gb: 43%
iff: 14%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .265
s/c/z: patient with a good eye, above average contact
r/l: .722 vs .733 ops; 1.2 vs 0.9 k/bb
h/a: .734 vs .715 ops; 1.1 vs 1.1 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter as righty, pull hitter as lefty
other: none


OF Felix Pie (L): .202/.279/.319

proj: .260/.315/.400
bb: 6.5%
k: 21%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .315
s/c/z: somewhat patient without a great eye, pretty good contact
r/l: .675 vs .278 ops; 3.2 vs 3.4 k/bb
h/a: .609 vs .610 ops; 2.8 vs 3.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none


DH Ty Wigginton (R): .241/.280/.380

proj: .270/.335/.470
bb: 7.5%
k: 20%
gb: 44%
iff: 9%
ifh: 7%
babip: i project him at .304, which is about where other systems have him
s/c/z: impatient, okay eye, decent contact
r/l: .749 vs .858 ops; 3.0 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .809 vs .751 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none


IF Oscar Salazar (R): .300/.300/.300

proj: .270/.330/.445
bb: 7%
k: 16%
gb: 42%
iff: 14%
ifh: 11%
babip: projected around .300
s/c/z: good eye, patient, slightly above average contact
r/l: .959 vs .596 ops; 1.0 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none



ROTATION

FRIDAY OPPONENT: Rich Hill (L): 5.81 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 4.09 FIP, 33%

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% cb, 6% ch
r/l: .728 vs .651; 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .713 vs .713; 2.2 vs 2.1 k/bb

Hill vs Phillies:

Feliz: 3/14, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 3/8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Bruntlett: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Howard: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Utley: 2/4, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K


SATURDAY OPPONENT: Brad Bergesen (R): 3.79 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 4.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.62 FIP, 55% GB

proj avg: 5.70 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 3.7 K/9, 1.5 HR/9
gb: 56%
pitches: 67% fb, 23% sl, 9% ch, 0.4% cb
r/l: .775 vs .736 ops; 4.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .777 vs .726 ops; 4.4 vs 0.8 k/bb

Bergesen: has not played any Phillies


SUNDAY OPPONENT: Jeremy Guthrie (R): 5.42 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 5.45 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 64% fb, 18% sl, 11% ch, 6% cb
r/l: .733 vs .761 ops; 2.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .788 vs .696 ops; 2.4 vs 1.8 k/bb

Guthrie vs Phillies:

Stairs: 3/18, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Ibanez: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB (2 IBB), 2 K, 1 HBP
Bako: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K


NOT FACING US: Koji Uehara (R): 4.30 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.43 FIP, 29% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.6 HR/9
gb: 30%
pitches: 57% fb, 32% sf, 6% ct, 3% ch, 2% ct
r/l: .715 vs .760 ops; 2.6 vs 5.0 k/bb
h/a: not enough info

Uehara: has not faced any Phillies


NOT FACING US: Jason Berken (R): 6.84 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.21 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 5.35 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 49% in minors
pitches: 60% fb, 17% ch, 14% sl, 9% cb
r/l: slightly better at avoiding contact against rhb but wilder too
h/a: not enough info

Berken: has not played any Phillies:


BULLPEN

CL George Sherrill (L): 2.45 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.73 FIP, 26% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 9.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 32%
pitches: 72% fb, 27% sl, 1% ch
r/l: .773 vs .506 ops; 1.1 vs 4.7 k/bb
h/a: .672 vs .627 ops; 2.3 vs 2.1 k/bb

Sherrill vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez; 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Jim Johnson (R): 2.87 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.64 FIp, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 56%
pitches: 79% fb, 12% cb, 9% ch
r/l: .662 vs .612 ops; 2.1 vs 0.9 k/bb
h/a: .663 vs .615 ops; 1.2 vs 1.5 k/bb

Johnson vs Phillies:

Stairs: 0/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K


Danys Baez (R): 3.03 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 61% GB, 4.22 FIP

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 60% fb, 31% sf, 8% cb, 1% ct, 0.2% sl
r/l: .648 vs .759 ops; 2.1 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .701 vs .705 ops; 2.0 vs 1.6 k/bb

Baez vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 0/4, 2 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 2 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 2 BB
Victorino: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Alberto Castillo (L): 3.86 ERA, 7.7 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 6.07 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 58% fb, 36% sl, 6% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .723 vs .762 ops; 2.1 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .564 vs .908 ops; 2.8 vs 1.4 k/bb

Castillo vs Phillies:

Stairs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K


Mark Hendrickson (L): 5.61 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.86 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 60% fb, 12% ch, 23% cb, 4% ct
r/l: .826 vs .692 ops; 1.8 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: .811 vs .777 ops; 1.9 vs 1.8 k/bb

Hendrickson vs Phillies:

Feliz: 4/18, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 3/9, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Utley: 4/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/8, 1 BB, 5 K
Ibanez: 1/7, 1 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 4/8, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Bako: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K


Brian Bass (R): 3.92 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 5.29 FIP, 66% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 60%
pitches: 66% fb, 18% sl, 11% cb, 5% ch, 0.1% sf
r/l: .862 vs .717 ops; 2.0 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .755 vs .859 ops; 1.8 vs 1.4 k/bb

Bass vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K


Matt Albers (R): 3.86 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.93 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 47%
pitches: 72% fb, 26% cb, 2% ch
r/l: .812 vs .763 ops; 1.9 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .721 vs .860 ops; 1.8 vs 1.1 k/bb

Albers vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1 BB (IBB)
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

 

 

PHILLIES



LINEUP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .225/.263/.350

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb.  otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.


2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .295/.351/.451

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year


3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .308/.441/.567

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters


4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .257/.331/.552

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep.  also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though.  probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes.  however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him.  he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!"  in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably.  his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp.  he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip.  i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road.  very similar hr numbers.  2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position


5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .261/.350/.466

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year


6) RF Greg Dobbs (L): .186/.258/.373

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters.  given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp.  in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp.  he should never see them.  absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers


7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .308/.354/.429

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes.  swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home.  likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related


8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .270/.391/.435

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey.  his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought


BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .253/.354/.422

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat


IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .163/.259/.245

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually  average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb.  he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none


OF Matt Stairs (L): .282/.451/.538

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

IF Paul Bako (L): .000/.000/.000

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none


OF John Mayberry (R): .286/.286/.786

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none


ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Antonio Bastardo (L): 5.25 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 5.07 FIP, 28% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played any Orioles


SATURDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 3.53 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.24 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not played any Orioles


SUNDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.48 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 4.00 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant.  ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar.  most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Orioles:

Huff: 1/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Wigginton: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Markakis: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Mora: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Roberts: 2/2, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Hill: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K



NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.35 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.78 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Orioles:

Mora: 10/40, 2 HR, 4 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Roberts: 3/10, 0 BB, 4 K
Huff: 8/20, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Zaun: 2/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Markakis: 1/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Wigginton: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Andino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Joe Blanton (R): 5.28 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 7.9 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 5.05 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Orioles:

Huff: 3/17, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Mora: 5/14, 1 2B, 2 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Roberts: 3/13, 2 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Markakis: 6/12, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Zaun: 2/11, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Wigginton: 3/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Scott: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Jones: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

Ryan Madson (R): 2.36 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.37 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Orioles:

Roberts: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Mora: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Wigginton: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Huff: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Scott: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Markakis: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K


Jack Taschner (L): 4.56 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 5.48 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Orioles:


Scott: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Zaun: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K



Chad Durbin (R): 3.89 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.45 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise


Durbin vs Orioles:

Mora: 5/13, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Roberts: 2/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Huff: 4/8, 0 BB, 2 K
Zaun: 1/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Markakis: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Wigginton: 2/3, 1 BB, 1 K


Clay Condrey (R): 3.71 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.54 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Orioles:

Mora: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Zaun: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Andino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Markakis: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Roberts: 1 BB

Chan Ho Park (R): 4.50 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 6.14 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Orioles:

Huff: 4/11, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Zaun: 4/10, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Mora: 3/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K
Roberts: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Scott: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Wigginton: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K


J.C. Romero (L): 1.00 ERA, 10.0 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 6.29 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops


Romero vs Orioles:


Roberts: 3/8, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Huff: 1/8, 0 BB, 2 K
Mora: 1/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Markakis: 1/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Zaun: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Scott: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Wigginton: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


Tyler Walker (R): 0.00 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.69 FIP, 43%

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Orioles:

Mora: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
ROberts: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Wigginton: 0/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Zaun: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Markakis: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac

DISABLED LIST: Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.15 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Orioles:

Wigginton: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Huff: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Mora: 1 BB
Roberts: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Zaun: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K


DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.57 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.64 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Orioles:

Huff: 3/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Scott: 2/2, 2 BB, 0 K
Wigginton: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Roberts: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Zaun: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Markakis: 1 BB
Mora: 1 BB

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