Interleague Play and the NL East: The Phillies' Big Disadvantage

by David S. Cohen on Jun 26, 2009 2:01 PM EDT

It seems like it's lasted forever, but interleague play is almost over. And all Phillies' fans have to say good riddance. Year in, year out, this experiment makes the Phillies Junes miserable. And, compared to the rest of the NL East, interleague play gives the Phillies a huge disadvantage.

Over the course of interleague play, the NL has a .479 winning percentage against the AL (1516-1649, through yesterday). However, the NL East is doing much better than the general rest of the NL. In fact, the NL East actually has a winning record in interleague play: 539-533, for a .503 winning percentage. The rest of the NL has a .467 winning percentage (977-1116).

Three of the NL East teams have a winning record in interleague play, and one is right around even. Of course, the other teams is the Phillies, who have the worst interleague play in the division . . . by a huge margin.

NL East	Wins	Losses	Win %
Marlins	120	96	0.556
Braves	109	99	0.524
Mets	105	103	0.505
Nationals	111	115	0.491
Phillies	94	120	0.439
Total	539	533	0.503

For the Phillies, Tuesday's game in Atlanta can't come soon enough.

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I'm not sure I understand

How exactly does sucking against the same teams everyone else in the division plays put them at a disadvantage? The only difference is that that they play the Sox 3 extra times while the Marlins and Braves have been getting cake matchups (at least in the past), but the Mets also have to deal with the Yankees 3 more times.

They may lose like it’s going out of style against AL teams, but I hardly see how you can say other teams have a clear advantage when they all play against the same teams.

by Steeeve on Jun 26, 2009 4:10 PM EDT reply actions

Here's the Phillies' disadvantage

Over the course of the season, there are between 12 and 18 games played against AL teams. In those games, the Phillies have a .439 winning percentage while all the other teams in their division play much better. It’s not a scheduling disadvantage since they generally (though not always) play the same teams. Rather, it’s a disadvantage because, for whatever reason (poor scouting of AL teams?), the Phillies as a franchise are bad in this subset of games whereas their competitors are not.

by David S. Cohen on Jun 26, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I get it, but to parse a bit more effectively, it’s not so much a disadvantage (which implies unfairness) as it is a deficiency—and given the pennant-race structure, would be less painful if our division mates were also as bad as we have been to date. Hey, but like Scarlet O’Hara said, “Tomorrow is another day!”

At least over the past few years, the structural problem is pretty clear: AL East teams can generally mash even factoring out banned substances. But our starting pitching, even in 2008, and especially in June (prior to Blanton trade, even Kohse), seems particularly well suited to (oh, what’s that kind phrase Wheeler uses to describe how slow and hittable Moyer’s pitches are?) “pitch to contact.” (ah, that’s it.) Show me a 3-game interleage pitching matchup in the 2000s where you couldn’t, as a fan of the opposition, look at and say, “we have a good shot winning two of those games against the Phillies.”

by Wet Luzinski on Jun 26, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions