So That Happened: Blue Jays 6, Phillies 1

Verducci Effect, Flags Fly Forever, all that jazz.

Hamels is NOT a .500 pitcher. W-L record is an antiquated and nearly useless way of evaluating a pitcher. Pitchers primarily have control over three things:

1) strikeouts
2) walks/HBP
3) groundball rate

They don’t really affect other stuff. Take a look at my summary article on BP Idol about this topic: http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8942

The other huge determinants of ERA, which are batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and homeruns/flyball (HR/FB) are mostly just luck. The average BABIP is .300. Hamels’ career BABIP is .295, primarily because the Phillies play good defense. This year, he’s at .363. That’s awful luck. HR/FB in CBP half the time should put him at 12.5%. Hamels’ career is 12.2% but this year is 13.6%. So he’s been unlucky.

As far as the things he CAN control, those are steady or impoving:

K/9:

2006: 9.86
2007: 8.69
2008: 7.76
2009: 8.44

BB/9:

2006: 3.26
2007: 2.11
2008: 2.10
2009: 1.78

GB%:

2006: 38.9
2007: 41.9
2008: 39.5
2009: 41.3

In other words, Hamels has pitched well enough to have an ERA in the 3.50 range or better, and he’s just had some bad luck to put his ERA at 4.44. His W-L record is based on inconsistent run support and bullpen help, which happens to everyone.