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We've been REAL lucky people...

But now we have to step it up.  A lot has been made about BP's 3rd order wins and how the Mets are significantly better than us.  Instead of looking into that since the statistic is fairly complicated, I'll simply look at the difference between OPS For and OPS Against.  I have referenced that numerous times here and it does a good job of removing park effect since you and your oppoents play on equal ground.

 

Team OPSF OPSA DIFF
Phillies .786 .810 -.024
Mets .750 .737 .013
Marlins .726 .734 -.08
Braves .716 .714 .002
Nats .747 .800 -.053

 

Yeah, you read that right, we have the second worst OPS differential in the NL East.  How we have maintained 1st place is pretty amazing.  Most of it is probably due to our pitchers giving up a ton of solo homeruns and not walking too many hitters.  Either way, we have a 1.5 game head start with the second worst differential, and what has happened doesn't matter anymore.  What matters is what WILL happen and the Phillies won't be as lucky in the future games if they continue to have this kind of split.

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Can you run splits on this? My subjective impression is that we were extremely lucky in the first 20 or so games of the year, but that our record after that and before interleague play was much more legit. That could be wrong though.

by taco pal on Jul 1, 2009 10:39 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree

All those crazy comeback wins in the beginning have to be skewing these numbers.

by David S. Cohen on Jul 1, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know you can do this with any team on the schedule

but if you take away our 10-2 record vs. the Nats, we’re a below .500 team.

by Screen Name 20 on Jul 1, 2009 11:40 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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