Phillies Breakfast Links, July 10, 2009: Pedro Martinez signing imminent?, More Roy Halladay, Return of Raul.
by WholeCamels on Jul 10, 2009 7:39 AM EDT
12 comments
Pedro Martinez says his agent is negotiating with Philadelphia Phillies - ESPN
Righty scheduled to throw second session later today in Dominican Republic, according to Jayson Stark. Link with horrendous autoplay video goodness.
Bob Ford: Phillies don't need Martinez
I think Ford is missing the point: Yes, Pedro Martinez may very well be no better than the likes of Drew Carpenter or Carlos Carrasco. But if the scouting reports are to be believed, there's at least the possibility that Pedro is healthy and can contribute meaningfully.
Roy Halladay offers will be considered, Phillies "favorites"
Right now, the team most aggressively searching for a front-line starting pitcher is the Philadelphia Phillies, who no doubt would covet Halladay for their particular park for his ability to generate ground balls and missed swings -- he has a ground ball/fly ball ratio of 1.30, to go along 98 strikeouts in 116 innings this season. The question about the Phillies -- as it is with most teams these days, when the value of young players has never been higher -- is whether they would be willing to give up what the Jays would require in trade.
Again, autoplay video horrendousness.
Rich Hofmann: Will Phillies gamble on Pedro Martinez?
Seems to think the signing is inevitable, unless the workout today goes horribly, or the physical is jacked up.
Ibanez is near return to Phils
Let's say Jimmy Rollins has returned to his 2006-ish level of production, and we dump Raul Ibanez into that lineup. It could be downright scary.
Savery wins 12th; R-Phils top Akron
Young righthander leads Eastern League in victories despite less-than-awesome outing.
Raul Ibanez helps Lehigh Valley IronPigs move closer to .500 with 6-3 win over Yankees
That leftfielder they have might have a future in this game!
Cheap Tees for Philly Fans | NBC Philadelphia
Stock up on your Pat Burrell and Peter Forsberg gear, this Saturday at the Spectrum!
Phillies CEO recalls the beginning of the BlueClaws
Monty and a brief history of the Lakewood BlueClaws.
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No Questions Asked
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roy halladay
Is Ruben Amaro Jr nuts?He should be doing a full court press for Roy Halladay.I mean just imagine Roy and Cole in the starting rotation for at least the next 5 Years.I am all for cultivating a good farm system,but sometimes you have to play for now and I believe that this is one of those times.I wouldn’t give away the whole store for this pitcher but I would be generous especially with the current statusof the Phillies rotation.Pedro Martinez,PLEASE!!!!!!!!!
by MPDC1119 on Jul 10, 2009 9:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Assuming that:
(1) Roy is healthy for 5 years and
(2) That Roy doesn’t file for FA after 1.5 seasons and go to the Mets to be 1-2 with Santana. Or the Yanks to be 1-2 with CC.
Given the payroll constraints, what is the likelihood that the Phillies shell out 20M+ per year for a 34-38 year old Halladay? He is 32 now and under contract for 1.5 years — resigning would likely be at market for multiple year deal of 4-5 years, I’m guessing. I would be pretty much opposed to that, myself, even if the money was there. You’d get a draft pick in exchange if you lose him to FA, but that would take a while to resolve out.
I understand the win now idea, but I would honestly rather be good for 10 years than 3. Or 2. Who won the World Series 4 years ago? Three years ago? Two years ago? (no cheating: http://mistupid.com/sports/worldseries.htm)
If this deal is pursued as a “this year” type of deal, we’re looking at maybe 20 starts from Halladay, but probably fewer. If we look at the Phillies as a .525 prospect without Halladay and a .700 team with him starting, how many additional wins does he get the team this year? 2? 3?
Do you give up some combination of Drabek, Happ, Carrasco, Savery, Donald, Marson, Brown, or Taylor to get 2 or 3 wins? These guys are stuck with arbitration for years. They represent several chances at goodness. I’m not sensing “healthy Halladay”-ness from the pitchers, but I’m comfortable that at least 2 of them will contribute meaningfully for a long time. They could help for multiple years rather than 1.5 seasons. Cheap, cheap WARPs are what this game is about. The Halladay option does not seem likely to create a net benefit, IMHO. Perhaps Marson, Savery, and Carrasco, but I don’t think that pries Halladay from Toronto.
Andersen for Bagwell (not really fair — Halladay clearly <> Andersen — but it illustrates the point). Alexander for Smoltz. I do not think the Phils should be on the wrong end of that, honestly. That’s what this really comes down to. Spread the risk. Try to be cost-effective. Pedro makes a huge amount of sense here. Halladay…I’m not sold on it. The package given in exchange would be the issue, clearly. Investigate. Listen to Toronto. Do not, however, sell the farm.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 10, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well said.
No one is against acquiring Halladay, as such. How could anyone be? He’s arguably the best pitcher in baseball. But people have got to get it in their heads that the terms of the trade matter. The price matters. Even for someone that good. If Toronto asks for too much, it’s better to just walk away. Folks like MPDC and Jim Salisbury seem to think that the only question that matters is whether Halladay is worth acquiring, and that if he is, then walking away from the table is unthinkable or shows that you just didn’t try hard enough. Of course he’s worth acquiring in the abstract, nobody questions that. But if that’s the only thing on your mind when you’re on the phone with Ricciardi, then you’re just asking to get ripped off.
Another fallacy I’ve been seeing a lot of is the idea that Halladay is better for us because we should go for a sure championship this year, not a merely speculative championship years down the road. But even acquiring Halladay won’t bring us a sure championship this year, any more than acquiring C.C. Sabathia brought Milwaukee a sure championship in 2008. It will increase our odds, but we can still lose, and we may only have two shots in which to play those odds. There are no sure things.
by taco pal on Jul 10, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
cake or death
I don’t know where people got this idea that it was either/or with Pedro and Halladay. Pedro costs nothing but (relatively modest) money.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 10, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely.
Pedro is a no-risk deal, for all purposes. Signing him in no way precludes Halladay.
An additional thought is that, to some extent, adding Pedro could force Toronto to be more reasonable, since there would be less of a sense of “zomg! the Phillies have to get pitching!” The Phillies, with a straight face, could tell Toronto: “yeah, it’d be nice, but you’re not going to 0wnz0r us over Halladay – we can actually walk away here.”
I love the trade deadline.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 10, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
According to Zo...
Pedro doesn’t mean no Hallady…
http://zozone.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/07/could_it_be_martinez_and_halla.html
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
by jonk on Jul 10, 2009 10:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I totally agree. Any move for Pedro would certainly preclude a move for Halladay.
by JasonB on Jul 10, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The second half of your argument is totaly off base. If he, like you said, makes the winning percentage go up from .525 to .700, thats about 13 wins right there. Also you have to consider the fact that we would have an almost unbeatable 1-2 for the PLAYOFFS (where 2 great pitchers can win you EVERY series). Plus we would be able to have him again next year.
The Phillies have the organizational depth to pull off a trade like that. You deal 2 or 3 of the names you mentioned, and you still have 5 legit top prospects. You can only put 9 on the field at once, and you have to figure there will some leftovers from this team as well as FA signings, so even if we do make this trade, the long term future is only a little bit bleaker than what it would be now. I think if we make this team, we will still be very competitive in 10 years.
by philiafan14364 on Jul 10, 2009 10:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, that should have been in response to RemeberthePhitans post, not sure why it wasnt…
by philiafan14364 on Jul 10, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He meant in Halladay’s starts. If the Phils are likely to win .525 of whomever would be starting in Halladay’s spot, they bump up to .700 with Halladay.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
by jonk on Jul 10, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yahtzee.
You are correct.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 10, 2009 7:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
To Jonk, above. I cannot operate the reply button today, evidently.
FWIW, I have always read “jonk” as rhyming with “honk” not as jon k. That is apropos of nothing, I suppose. Just the strangeness of my brain. I always wondered what the hell a jonk was.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 10, 2009 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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