The Stupidest and Most Useless Stat Rears Its Ugly Head Again

by David S. Cohen on Jul 13, 2009 11:44 AM EDT

Last year, I railed against what I first called "the most useless stat" but then downgraded to "the stupidest and most useless stat": team record when a player scores a run. I think there are at least 27 reasons this stat is stupid and useless, so I'll just mention three: the stat combines two team-dependent stats (runs and wins) to evaluate a single player; it rewards those who don't score much and/or only when the rest of the team is scoring runs; and the entire team can be great in this stat when it sucks otherwise. And you can think of countless other reasons this stat is absurd. And ridiculous. And utterly silly. And deserves never to be discussed again.

But then Jimmy Rollins, who had a .569 OPS through July 1, starts hitting again and has a 1.138 OPS over the last 11 games. And the Phillies have won 9 of those games. And he's scored runs in 7 of the 11, including 6 of the 9 wins. And you know where this is going.

Yup, this weekend Larry Andersen and Scott Franzke were going on and on about how important Rollins is to the Phillies' offense because the Phillies have a 34-8 record (adjusted to today's stats) when he scores a run.

Now here's the thing - there are so many useful ways to hype Jimmy Rollins' improved performance. Point to his 1.138 OPS over the last 11 games, for instance. Or talk about how in the past 9 games he's had 10 walks. (You read that right -- Jimmy Rollins has more walks than games in the past 9 games. Amazing!) Discuss his .500+ OBP in the past 11 games. Or his always impressive defense.

But this stat about the team's record in games in which Rollins (or anyone else) scores a run just has to go. If you need any more proof than the reasoning mentioned above and detailed in the links in the first paragraph, I'm giving you even more ammunition with this chart. It shows the dreaded stat for each of the Phillies who has scored more than 10 runs this year. The bottom line shows the Phillies' overall record when the team scores a run (in other words, the team's record in non-shutout games):

Player	Wins	Losses	Win %	Runs
Ruiz	9	1	0.900	11
Coste	9	1	0.900	12
Feliz	25	5	0.833	36
Rollins	34	8	0.810	51
Victorino	36	11	0.766	63
Howard	31	10	0.756	53
Utley	36	12	0.750	62
Werth	31	14	0.689	60
Ibanez	25	12	0.676	53
Stairs	7	4	0.636	11
Dobbs	6	5	0.545	13
Overall	48	36	0.571

If this hodgepodge chart tells you anything about the relative value of these players, you need to have your eyes checked.

As with last year when I looked at this, of the regulars, Pedro Feliz has the highest win percentage in games he's scored a run. And Jayson Werth again is toward the bottom (as is Raul Ibanez). Is Feliz in any way more valuable to this offense than Werth or Ibanez?

QED.

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Comments

Where's Bako?

We’re 3-0 when he scores a run. Key is to get your catchers to score runs.

by EastFallowfield on Jul 13, 2009 12:00 PM EDT reply actions

Wow

We’re 21-2 then when our catchers score a run (although that may double count one or two games, but even so). Hit them leadoff!

by David S. Cohen on Jul 13, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Believe it or not, about a month and a half ago, the Baseball Musings lineup evaluation tool had the optimal Phillies batting order with Ruiz as the lead-off hitter. I haven’t fiddled around with it lately but I’d presume BM wouldn’t crown Ruiz again.

Crashburn Alley

by Crashburn Alley on Jul 13, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Unstoppable Ruiz

That was probably run when Ruiz was unstoppable. He’s played very stoppable since then.

by David S. Cohen on Jul 13, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions

To me, this makes sense. If your catchers are scoring runs, your team is probably doing great since they are the worst hitters in the lineup.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Jul 13, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Exactly

by David S. Cohen on Jul 13, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

kinda matters

it matters because rollins is at the top of the lineup. if he was batting 6th then they would say the same thing about the guy currently batting number 1.

by jamiethekiller on Jul 13, 2009 1:00 PM EDT reply actions

How?

How does it matter because he’s at the top of the lineup? I don’t get what you’re saying. The stat measures whether other players hit him in and whether his pitching teammates hold the other team to a run total less than the Phillies’ run total. How is that a reflection on Rollins?

by David S. Cohen on Jul 13, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions

The thing is, this is just a matter of good intentions done very poorly. I think the implication is when Rollins hits well and then someone else behinds him hits well, the Phils win. It obviouslt helps when 1/4 of your regulars combine to hit well given no context of the rest of the squad. In reality, they are saying when we score runs, we win. Oh reeeeeaaaaaaalllllly?

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Jul 13, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Except for Dobbs, of course

by David S. Cohen on Jul 13, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions

..

if the leadoff guy is getting on then the lineup as more chance of turning over. the top of the lineup for the phils doesn’t hit into many double plays.

other than feliz, coste and ruiz are a thing of small sample size. the next guy past rollins is victorino who also has been batting 2nd for most of the time

by jamiethekiller on Jul 13, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions

How to Do it

Start Werth or Bruntlett at catcher. Wait till we get a runner at 3rd with less than 2 outs, then PR Bako or Ruiz for that runner. If he doesn’t score, pinch run the other guy if the situation comes up again.

by EastFallowfield on Jul 13, 2009 1:47 PM EDT reply actions

The point that the stat is meaningless seems to have escaped notice, because many are trying to glean meaning from it.

But having said that I’ll play along with my own theory: the middle of the order has been productive (Victorino to Werth), and that’s generally speaking a given. But if the bottom of the order is also being productive (Feliz and the catcher, and though not listed here, the pitcher), then that is icing on the cake and the Phils are that much more likely to score a lot and therefore win.

by schmenkman on Jul 13, 2009 4:26 PM EDT reply actions

Speaking of the pitcher...

Along these lines, the Phillies are 7-4 when the starting pitcher gets a hit (.636 pct). They are only .545 if he does not get a hit.

It was similar in 2008: .633 vs. .563
and in 2007: .651 vs. .522

Of course, the starting pitcher is more likely to get a hit if he pitches well enough to stay in the game and get more at bats.

by schmenkman on Jul 13, 2009 4:46 PM EDT reply actions

Why are you calling all catchers the worst hitters. What about Smokey Burgess?

by fan since late 40's on Jul 14, 2009 8:49 PM EDT reply actions

Catchers are historically the worst hitters, because it’s the most demanding of the 8 positions. Of course there have been many great hitting catchers from Cochrane/Dickey to Piazza/Mauer and all the rest in between, but when you look at the average catcher through history compared to the other positions, catchers have been the worst, just behind shortstops.

by schmenkman on Jul 15, 2009 7:50 AM EDT reply actions